Olymp

Lapko @2,28 (Marathonbet)
She hasn't play much tis and last year, that's why she is ranked so low, but she took a set against Golubic and Martic recently. So I give her definitely a chance against Garin who is  below the level of her recent opponents. Garin won 2 qualy's here, but against weak opponents.

I'm doing fine for the season thanks @Olymp

Sherif couldn't build on winning the opening set against Davis and Rodionova got ahead in the second set against Zvonareva but couldn't hold on. Anyway, it's impossible to win them all and today is another day.
With that in mind, I'll be starting in Dubai where I'm backing Popyrin to beat Khachanov. The young Aussie is on a streak of wins right now and has beaten some good players. He's also beaten Ebden during this run, who Khachanov lost to last week in disappointing fashion. I'd much rather back the form horse at odds against rather than the favourite who has been inconsistent so far this season. 
I'm also going to back Carreno-Busta to beat Fucsovics. He's not played since the AO so there's some uncertainty about his level but at the same time he'll be fresh. That can't be said for Fucsovics, who has played a lot of tennis recently. He pulled out of his match against Rublev last week and he played a gruelling match against Pospisil yesterday that went the distance. Carreno-Busta plays well on hard but also has the clay mentality of long rallies and keeping the ball in play. If nothing else, there's a good chance the Spaniard will outlast his opponent and get the win here.
Next up I'll be backing Basilashvili against Fritz, as I can't have him as the underdog given how well he played last week - which included a win over this same opponent. The risky part of backing the Georgian in this one is will he be able to continue keeping the unforced errors down, or will he regress and start spraying the ball all over the place like he'd been doing prior to arriving in Doha. Personally, I prefer backing hot players to stay hot even if there is a risk of a comedown so I'll cross my fingers that Basilashvili is motivated to continue his run of good form.
Last up is my only WTA pick, which is in St. Petersburg. Tomova plays Wang Xinyu, and after giving such a good account of herself last week against Mertens she should have a good chance to win this. They've played each other once before a couple of years ago and Tomova won, and although that's not necessarily relevant given that Xinyu is still a teenager, it never hurts to look across the net and see a player you know you've beaten.
15pts Popyrin to beat Khachanov @ 2.62 Bet365
50pts Carreno-Busta to beat Fucsovics @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook
35pts Basilashvili to beat Fritz @ 2.50 Bet365
35pts Tomova to beat Wang Xinyu @ 2.20 Bet365

Krajinovic was in lockdown in Doha until last night. Last five days he even couldn't leave his room. So,no practice of whatsoever. He even joined a show on Serbian television via Zoom,complaining about the treatment and the situation with the quarantine rules. He said that all this does make sense and that upon his return to Belgrade ,he will sit down with his team and see what next.
He flew last nihgt to Dubai,and already today he's playing a match. I wouldn't be too optimistic about his performance.

https://www.b92.net/sport/tenis/vesti.php?yyyy=2021&mm=03&dd=15&nav_id=1827084

I like the price of Jeremy Chardy vs. Alex De Minaur, at around 3.0-3.1. 
Chardy is a big server/big hitter and has been on fire this year, beating Goffin (2-0) and Humbert (2-1) in Rotterdam, before losing to Rublev in 3 sets in the QF.
He also made the semi-finals of Melbourne, defeating Fritz, Simon and Cilic along the way. De Minaur was drummed by Fognini 3-0 at the AO, and beaten by Nishikori 2-1 recently in Rotterdam. 

Bedene AH -1.5 sets @2,15 (Unibet)
Bhambri is making a comeback after 3 years and has never been a world beater. He won in qualification against Gunneswaran in 2 and Ramanathan in 3 sets.  Bedene won against Sinner in Montpellier and and lost to Gerasimov afterwards. I think Bedene can have this job done in 2 sets.

I add this one. 
Olmos (+6.00 Gamest) to beat Podoroska at 1.67 with Pinnacle
I think the line is just to big. Olmos has already played 2 matches here and she beat Sherif in straight sets (Sherif was priced at 1.20). Podoroska did not end well her australian season. She lost easily against Vekic in the 2nd round of the AO (6-2, 6-2) and in the 1st round of the Phililp Island Trophy against Begu (6-3, 6-3). Olmos is better known for doubles but I have seen her and she's not a bad player on singles despite her ranking. Podoroska last match was against Begu and it was 1 month ago. Considering Olmos has already played 2 matches here (including a win in 2 sets against Sherif) I think she can cover this handicap. This match starts in 1 hour.

Gerasimov to beat Hanfmann at 1.40 with bet365
I also like this match. The odds are not high but Gerasimov is really good playing on indoors. In Montpellier he beat Murray, Bedene, Davidovich and lost in the SFs against Goffin in a 3 set match. In Rotterdam he lost in the 1st round but it was against Tsitsipas and it was tight (7-6, 7-5). The last year here he reached the SFs, beating Ruusuvuori, Novak and Goffin and lost against Aliassime. As I said, I really like him when he plays indoors and here is where he has his best results. Hanfmann best surface is clay. 

Jabeur to beat Rybakina at 1.80 with William Hill
Rybakina's great moment of form was cut by the pandemic and her last results haven't been good at all. She lost in the 1st round of the Grampians Trophy against Krejcikova, in the 2nd round of the AO against Ferro and in the 1st round of Doha against Siegemund. 3 defeats against 3 clay court players that she should have beat easily on this surface. She has beat Saisai (6-0, 6-4), who is still winless this year (0-6). Despite that bagel in the 1st set I don't like how Rybakina played in the 2nd one. I already said what I think about Jabeur on a previous post. I think Jabeur is not a good matchup for Rybakina. She uses a lot of variety on her shots, she loves to slice and drop shot. I still remember how Barty destroyed her the last year in the AO with her slices. Jabeur beat Siniakova (6-2, 6-3) in the first round.

I totally agree here . Bencic has been playing real good and has yet to drop a set.  IMO Gauff shouldn’t have won yesterday I think it was more of a meltdown from Rogers even up a break on the second set until she went gassed out.  I know Gauff is 16 but so many minutes and sets played will cost her. Not sure if her father is the right way for her to continue and I’m sure good things we can expect from her on the future but I believe this is the end of the road on this tournament.

Gauff vs Bencic
I am going to keep this simple because I do not want my chain of thoughts to be derailed by trying to think of a reason for this pick. This pick is for those who have been on the journey of this tournament from the start and who should be thinking like me here. Bencic to win here large. Gauff has already played four 3 setters in a row. I dare her a win here. Large stakes recommended. 9/10

Daniil Medvedev to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.00 with Bet365
After thinking about the match again, I don't see much of a reason why Medvedev is the underdog here. Sure, Djokovic has experience on his side. Then again, all the other factors speak against him and I'm not sure that Medvedev is in the same position as Brady was earlier today. He has enough experience against top opposition, he has a 3-4 record against Djokovic, which includes him winning 3 of the last 4 encounters and he has been playing the better tennis so far. There's the injury angle as well. It's probably a bit overrated by now, so I wouldn't read into it that much, but it's there. We should see a cracker of a match and it's arguably the best final we could've gotten, so let's hope for the best. I'd have Medvedev as the slight favorite, not Djokovic.

Aliassime vs Moutet
Aliassime looks to be playing well, perhaps the the sort of form the feels good but not good enough having hung on to life dearly by his claws in the last two matches. The h2h is 3-0 Aliassime with all three victories being very easy. I am willing to take the chance here on Moutet. His current form looks credible enough to come out on top in a match like this just before the start of the Aussie Open. There is also the feeling that Aliassime might default at some point if the kitchen gets too hot. I just hope that happens after the first set. Moutet to win here.

6-4, 6-2. Easy victory for Lorenzi. As I said, there is never value on a player that has been out of the courts for a long time...No matter how juicy the odds are... This particular case was even more clear because Altmaier contracted Covid during the first week of January. I'm really happy with this one. A prove of how much profit you can make in tennis if you have the right info!

Paolo Lorenzi (+4.5 Games) to beat Daniel Altmaier at 1.83 with bet365
I'm not agree with these odds. Probably you will remember this player for his incredible run in RG 2020, where he beat Feliciano, Struff and Berrettini, all of them in straight sets... He finally lost against Carreño, also in straight sets. Well, since RG he has played 3 matches: Laaksonen (6-3, 3-6, 6-7), Gerasimov (1-6, 0-6) and Marchenko (4-6, 2-3). This will be his 1st match since October 2020, when he had to retire from his match against Marchenko due to his hip physical problems. I know Lorenzi's best days are gone, but at least he has been active and playing matches unlike the german player. 
The single victory is paid at 3.50 with bet365
Be careful, I base this bet mostly on Altmaier's lack of matches and his continued physical problems.

Well, now we know why he was priced that way. What a mess... If he plays as he did in the first set it doesn't matter who he plays against that he will lose... Let's see if he plays better but I'm very pessimistic

It's not impossible. I have won all the bets I have posted here since I returned, 1 month ago. This one was a trap... I had my doubts, but I finally have been fooled by the bookies. You never can take a player that has been out of the courts that long. The last time he won a match was in 2019... Unfortunately for us, Pouille was in a worse shape than we thought and his opponent was the right one to make us think that this could be his first victory. Bad deal.

Marc-Andrea Huesler (-3.5 Games) to beat Facundo Bagnis at 1.83 with Pinnacle
As I said in a previous post, Huesler did really well in 2020. He won a couple of Challengers and reached the Final in Kitzbuhel, beating good players and ending the year with an impressive 31-9. Bagnis is a pure clay courter but it shocked me anyway too see that his match against Zhang (6-4, 6-1) has been his second match on indoors of his whole career...I have watched that match and I have to say that Zhang has played very badly. Huesler has won in his first match here against Istomin (2-6, 6-2, 6-4).

@CzechPunter @Olymp Have you watched the Huesler-Istomin match¿? I wanted to watch it but finally I couldn't. Actually, I still haven't watched any match of this Challenger.. ? I'm watching the Bagnis-Zhizhen Zang.

Yue Yuan to beat Cagla Buyukakcay at 1.91 with William Hill
Honestly, I'm not sure why Yuan isn't like 1.57 here, 1.91 looks too juicy to me. There's a lot of quality coming from China on the women's side of things these years and Yue Yuan is a good prospect. She's not particularly young, true, but she's improved big time by the looks of things. She didn't play much last year, but she is 3-1 this year with wins over Chwalinska, Bouchard (!) and Bains. The loss was against Paquet and it was quite tight, 7-6 6-3. Her opponent has always been only slightly above average and she's aging now, no interesting recent results either.

@cluelessG the positive from the Dubai flight was a false alarm. 
3 positives from the Los Angeles flight (24 players):
- Edward Elliot (Lauren Davis’ coach), a flight attendant and a journalist (9news)
1 positive from the Abu Dhabi flight (23 players):
- Sylvain Bruneau (Andreescu’s coach)
1 positive from the Doha flight (25 players):
- Unknown (not a tennis player)
72 players in hard quarantine: 

MEN:
Nishikori, Sandgren, Pospisil, Pella, Londero, Cuevas, Santiago González, Marcus Demoliner, Artem Sitak, Nicholas Monroe, Philipp Oswald, Marcus Daniell, Marcelo Arévalo, Rajeev Ram, Rohan Bopanna, Alcaraz, Vilella, Stebe, Alexandre Muller, Federico Ferreira Silva, Karatsev, Stakhovsky, E.Ymer, Halys, Coppejans, Mmoh, Machác, Troicki, Safiullin, van de Zandschulp, Tomic, Laaksonen, Cressy, Dellien, Taro Daniel, Dzumhur, Ivashka, Paire

WOMEN:
Azarenka, Stephens, Riske, Lauren Davis, McHale, Mattek-Sands, Andreescu, Kerber, Cirstea, Kuznetsova, Bencic, Jabeur, Sakkari, Watson, Kostyuk, Kontaveit, Kudermetova, Yastremska, Rybakina, Badosa, Putintseva, Oksana Kalashnikova, Krejcikova, Strycova, Siniakova, Dabrowski.
I still don't know who are the other 8 players in hard quarantine, anyone knows¿?
 

Challenger Istanbul
Marc-Andrea Huesler (2-0) to beat Guido Andreozzi at 1.85 with William Hill
Andreozzi did not play any match in 2020 due to the pandemic. His only match since 2019 has been against Tristan Schoolkate (839) and he lost that match in 2 sets (7-6, 6-4). Huesler's last 6 months of 2020 were impressive (31-9). He reached the SF in Kitzbühel: Balazs (6-4, 6-0), Gunneswaran (6-3, 6-3), Ruusuvuori (3-6, 6-4, 7-6), Fognini (6-1, 6-2) and Feliciano López (6-4, 6-3), losing finally against Kecmanovic in 3 sets. He won the Challengers of Sibiu and Islaming (winning there against good players as Dustin Brown, Schnur, Hoang, Korda,...). He lost in his second match of the qualy of the AO against Elias Ymer in 3 sets.
As you know I rarely post about Challengers. If this one goes as I expect probably I will post some more, let's see....

https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-open-coronavirus-second-charter-flight-records-positive-covid19-case/365e6652-6816-4be5-9c9b-85e94f6f6d20
Guys,... we have a new one... 

After some research this is what i got:
2 positives from the Los Angeles flight:
- Edward Elliot (Lauren Davis’ coach) and a flight attendant
Positive from the Abu Dhabi flight:
- Sylvain Bruneau (Andreescu’s coach)
There are 47 players in quarantine
MEN:
Nishikori, Sandgren, Pospisil, Pella, Londero, Cuevas, Santiago Gonzalez, Sitak, Oswald, Daniell
WOMEN:
Azarenka, Stephens, Riske, Lauren Davis, Andreescu, Kerber, Cirstea, Kuznetsova, Bencic, Jabeur, Sakkari, Watson, Cornet, Kostyuk, Yastremska, Rybakina, Badosa, Putintseva, Podoroska
 
I still don’t know who are the others

I only have watched the Hurkacz-Harrison and Norrie-Korda matches. Hurkacz won in 2 sets playing with the foot off the pedal. Korda played really well but when he was serving for the match (40-15, 5-4), he pooped his pants. Playing against another player probably she would have lost the set, but not against Norrie. The british made a show of his politeness and gifted the next game (2 DF). IMO Hurkacz should win the Final but, as I said, I only have watched 2 matches... 
another rutine victory from Savinykh 6-4, 7-5 (easiest 5.00 ever¿?). I have been watching about her and she looks pretty decent. Actually, she looks better than some current top 100 players...Any russian punter who knows more about her?
@Olymp thanks, mate!