Zilzalian

@MCLARKE is correct, CD is over bet but my point is/was that when looking for bigger prices re value, CD and ground is a good guide, example- 3 horses lets say 7/4 fav 6/1 and 12/1 all have won over CD, that 12/1 with CD is of great interest to me against others in the betting that say 3 others in the race at 12/1 who haven't a CD. In handicaps we all know they are as bent as nine bob notes what you have to decide is--- is the horse good enough to win this race, some are and some are not so elimination is a great tool to finding winners. consider this if you manage to find a 20/1 winner then you can be wrong 18 times thereafter and still be in profit whereas if you back favs or short prices then you have to be correct a hell of a lot of times to stay in profit, a look at the naps tables (most winners) shows you that it is very hard to make good money consistently on short price horses. For me form is well over rated because we see "the form horse" not only get beat but run absolute stinkers far too often for it to be true much of the time, and its a poor excuse to use the term "horses are not machines" because we already know that anyway. I think the biggest problem when betting is finding excuses for being wrong or blaming this and that? (i often do this myself immediately after a race) the other thing we do is forget that in a handicap all the horses are supposed to technically finish level so a 20 runner field again technically its a 20/1 shot that you will be correct with your choice, my idea is, well why not take a chance on a 16/1-20/1 in a 20 runner handicap than a 3/1 shot in a 20 runner handicap look at the results every day there are dozens of double figure winners. Listed/Group racing for me is a totally different sport because they are not running for prize money but breeding money. so shorter prices have to be considered or given the same thoughts as an outsider and vice versa.
 

@MCLARKE is correct, CD is over bet but my point is/was that when looking for bigger prices re value, CD and ground is a good guide, example- 3 horses lets say 7/4 fav 6/1 and 12/1 all have won over CD, that 12/1 with CD is of great interest to me against others in the betting that say 3 others in the race at 12/1 who haven't a CD. In handicaps we all know they are as bent as nine bob notes what you have to decide is--- is the horse good enough to win this race, some are and some are not so elimination is a great tool to finding winners. consider this if you manage to find a 20/1 winner then you can be wrong 18 times thereafter and still be in profit whereas if you back favs or short prices then you have to be correct a hell of a lot of times to stay in profit, a look at the naps tables (most winners) shows you that it is very hard to make good money consistently on short price horses. For me form is well over rated because we see "the form horse" not only get beat but run absolute stinkers far too often for it to be true much of the time, and its a poor excuse to use the term "horses are not machines" because we already know that anyway. I think the biggest problem when betting is finding excuses for being wrong or blaming this and that? (i often do this myself immediately after a race) the other thing we do is forget that in a handicap all the horses are supposed to technically finish level so a 20 runner field again technically its a 20/1 shot that you will be correct with your choice, my idea is, well why not take a chance on a 16/1-20/1 in a 20 runner handicap than a 3/1 shot in a 20 runner handicap look at the results every day there are dozens of double figure winners. Listed/Group racing for me is a totally different sport because they are not running for prize money but breeding money. so shorter prices have to be considered or given the same thoughts as an outsider and vice versa.
 

I also backed viva la dance (12/1) but as for how can you tell the best form line to follow, the simple answer is, you can't. One thing to remember though is be very weary of asking a horse to do something it has never done before especially older horses against horses that have, no matter what the press says. CD/Ground are primary factors when choosing what to back, yesterday i listened to Andrew Balding talking about a horse he put in a G3 he said he did it because he didnt want it to win because of its mark (go listen to it now on Sportinglife website) thats what punters are up against.

Okay more rubbish racing today so todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 should be a 20pew fun lucky 15, cost £6.00 I hate ew but common sense should prevail when posting.
350 wolves Kylachy castle                 33/1
720 chelm   Bint Australia                   10/1
820 chelm   Affair                                12/1
850 chelm Honey Pot                          8/1
Another duff day 3 of them came 4th which just about sums ew betting up so will avoid ew again just win no matter what the prices (never say never)
Bank has slipped to £84.00 from a ton but tomorrow is another day even a double will see us back in profit so all is not grim.

I also backed viva la dance (12/1) but as for how can you tell the best form line to follow, the simple answer is, you can't. One thing to remember though is be very weary of asking a horse to do something it has never done before especially older horses against horses that have, no matter what the press says. CD/Ground are primary factors when choosing what to back, yesterday i listened to Andrew Balding talking about a horse he put in a G3 he said he did it because he didnt want it to win because of its mark (go listen to it now on Sportinglife website) thats what punters are up against.

Okay more rubbish racing today so todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 should be a 20pew fun lucky 15, cost £6.00 I hate ew but common sense should prevail when posting.
350 wolves Kylachy castle                 33/1
720 chelm   Bint Australia                   10/1
820 chelm   Affair                                12/1
850 chelm Honey Pot                          8/1
Another duff day 3 of them came 4th which just about sums ew betting up so will avoid ew again just win no matter what the prices (never say never)
Bank has slipped to £84.00 from a ton but tomorrow is another day even a double will see us back in profit so all is not grim.

Okay more rubbish racing today so todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 should be a 20pew fun lucky 15, cost £6.00 I hate ew but common sense should prevail when posting.
350 wolves Kylachy castle                 33/1
720 chelm   Bint Australia                   10/1
820 chelm   Affair                                12/1
850 chelm Honey Pot                          8/1
Another duff day 3 of them came 4th which just about sums ew betting up so will avoid ew again just win no matter what the prices (never say never)
Bank has slipped to £84.00 from a ton but tomorrow is another day even a double will see us back in profit so all is not grim.

Okay more rubbish racing today so todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 should be a 20pew fun lucky 15, cost £6.00 I hate ew but common sense should prevail when posting.
350 wolves Kylachy castle                 33/1
720 chelm   Bint Australia                   10/1
820 chelm   Affair                                12/1
850 chelm Honey Pot                          8/1
Another duff day 3 of them came 4th which just about sums ew betting up so will avoid ew again just win no matter what the prices (never say never)
Bank has slipped to £84.00 from a ton but tomorrow is another day even a double will see us back in profit so all is not grim.

Bookmakers are betting 10/1 the field for this Saturday's big sprint handicap at Ripon and I believe there's some value lurking there although we'll need to be lucky with the draw.
Even though 63 have declared only 20 can run (there's also a consolation race) with the two form horses that top the betting Mr Wagyu and Music Society 8lb higher than their latest Goodwood efforts so can hardly be called well handicapped. Soul Seeker is the other form horse - he's on a hat trick although maybe better at 5F and needs a few to drop out to make the final 20.
The value bet to my eyes has to be last year's victor STAXTON. He loves this track with form figures at the Yorkshire track of 235111 (the 5th was in this very race two years ago when 2nd of 7 on his side). He won this contest last year when landing a gamble, going off the 4/1 favourite off of a handicap mark of 88 and although 4lb higher now looks primed for a big run. His shrewd connections have probably had this contest in mind for him for awhile and its worth backing now at the 14/1 (Paddy Power/Bet365/ Betfair SB) as I can see him going off shorter come Saturday. He wasn't totally disgraced in 10th last time out in the consolation Stewards Cup on very soft ground which may not have been ideal (he handles most ground though possibly not at his very best on very soft) but his previous 4th in the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton finishing just behind the aforementioned pair Music Society and Mr Wagyu was an excellent effort and meets that duo on 9lb better terms here. The winner of that race incidentally was Commanche Falls who went on to win the Stewards Cup. 
The problem with playing now is two fold - firstly the draw. It seems that high numbers have had the call over the years in this race so we're playing here hoping that the draw is kind and also the place terms as there are only 4 places available where as on the day there's certain to be 5, 6 or even 7 available. I'm happy to play to small stakes now at 14/1 and if things fall into place maybe top up on Thursday when the draw and extra places are known.
 
STAXTON 1 point each way @ 14/1 Paddy Power / Bet365 / Betfair Sportsbook

Okay more rubbish racing today so todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 should be a 20pew fun lucky 15, cost £6.00 I hate ew but common sense should prevail when posting.
350 wolves Kylachy castle                 33/1
720 chelm   Bint Australia                   10/1
820 chelm   Affair                                12/1
850 chelm Honey Pot                          8/1
Another duff day 3 of them came 4th which just about sums ew betting up so will avoid ew again just win no matter what the prices (never say never)
Bank has slipped to £84.00 from a ton but tomorrow is another day even a double will see us back in profit so all is not grim.

I remember having a discussion with you a while back about napping horses with big odds. I didn’t get it, but yes the price of an horse can be very misleading at times. 

I have posted 8 lucky 15's in the last 8 days that's 32 horses look at the ones that won and look at the ones that lost, If you want to back short priced horses, well good luck with that my friends. This punter just can't make money backing them so i look for the best price that can win not those that are expected to win.
 

Todays fun 40p  lucky 15 is not going to make us rich today poor racing in my book so going to take a chance on Charltons 3 runners
1250 Clairefontaine                Whizz Kid                  5/1    lost
320 Wolves                             Fozzy Bear               2/1     lost
655 Ripon                               Barn Owl                  9/4      2nd
605 Winds                              Becoming                 7/1      NR
prices bet365 at time of posting total stakes £6.00
Ah well that was as much use as a tit to a nun 40p back for the NR
bank now £90 from £100
 

Todays fun 40p  lucky 15 is not going to make us rich today poor racing in my book so going to take a chance on Charltons 3 runners
1250 Clairefontaine                Whizz Kid                  5/1    lost
320 Wolves                             Fozzy Bear               2/1     lost
655 Ripon                               Barn Owl                  9/4      2nd
605 Winds                              Becoming                 7/1      NR
prices bet365 at time of posting total stakes £6.00
Ah well that was as much use as a tit to a nun 40p back for the NR
bank now £90 from £100
 

bit late but just done the speed figures for the G1 Pheonix and its says a 1/2 for GB
1   Go Bears Go            121
2   Ebro River                117
3   take your pick all same ish but Strapped should not be 100/1

Keep coming unstuck on my R/FC but I will settle for a 12/1 winner all day long

bit late but just done the speed figures for the G1 Pheonix and its says a 1/2 for GB
1   Go Bears Go            121
2   Ebro River                117
3   take your pick all same ish but Strapped should not be 100/1

Keep coming unstuck on my R/FC but I will settle for a 12/1 winner all day long

Keep coming unstuck on my R/FC but I will settle for a 12/1 winner all day long

Keep coming unstuck on my R/FC but I will settle for a 12/1 winner all day long

bit late but just done the speed figures for the G1 Pheonix and its says a 1/2 for GB
1   Go Bears Go            121
2   Ebro River                117
3   take your pick all same ish but Strapped should not be 100/1

I live in the NW so i didnt even bother wasting my time looking at the Haydock races simply because it was odds on it was going to be abd evidenced by just looking out of my window last night.

Todays fun 40p Lucky 15 = £6.00
220 hoppegarten                 Alpenista                  9/2          won
330 Hoppegarten                Alerta Roja               5/2           2nd    ran well
250 Leicester                      Atalanta Breeze       16/1         lost
250 Deauville                     Starman                   15/8          3rd
Looks like The Baron Prescott is having it away in Germany
Just the one winner so a bit of a loss           bank now  £95.60 from £100
So we have had a weeks worth of bets (4 horses per day £42 quids worth for £37.40 back) been a tad unlucky but it has only cost us £4.60
that's better than a kick in the twiddley bits.

I live in the NW so i didnt even bother wasting my time looking at the Haydock races simply because it was odds on it was going to be abd evidenced by just looking out of my window last night.

I live in the NW so i didnt even bother wasting my time looking at the Haydock races simply because it was odds on it was going to be abd evidenced by just looking out of my window last night.