Racing Chat - Monday 9th August

[calva decoy]

6.15 Ball - Valley Breeze 8/1 ew Bet365 .

Off course for 720 days , has 7Lb claimer aboard but hails from the W.Mullins yard so should be readied no problem.

NON RUNNER 

Edited August 9, 2021 by calva decoy
results update

[black rabbit]

Harry George   1 35  wolv   1/2 pt  win   19/1 betfair 

Star Citizen  1 50  ayr   1/2  pt win  10/1  betfair

 

 

P/L  = + 118 pts   

[roger2256]

August-10 

1pt level stakes win only 

14.25 Ayr Muroor 7/1 Lost

17.45 Bal Aim For Glory 28/1 Lost

20.25 Rip Wots The Wifi Code 12/1 Won

Prices as of now b365

13.35 Wol Yorkshire Pirlo 13/2 PP Lost

+9

August-1 

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[Zilzalian]

Todays fun 40p  lucky 15 is not going to make us rich today poor racing in my book so going to take a chance on Charltons 3 runners

1250 Clairefontaine                Whizz Kid                  5/1    lost

320 Wolves                             Fozzy Bear               2/1     lost

655 Ripon                               Barn Owl                  9/4      2nd

605 Winds                              Becoming                 7/1      NR

prices bet365 at time of posting total stakes £6.00

Ah well that was as much use as a tit to a nun 40p back for the NR

bank now £90 from £100

 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[cannotbebeat]

1.50 Ayr Rory 3/1

2.10 Wolverhampton Mushirif 11/4

2.25 Ayr Ayr Empress 100/30

3.00 Ayr Platinumcard 3/1

3.55 Wolverhampton Merry Secret 5/2

4.35 Ayr Bulls Aye 5/2

7.35 Windsor Tregony 6/5

7.55 Ripon Kraken Power 11/4

Good luck all CNBB.

Edited August 9, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[The Equaliser]

I have had very little time to look at today's racing. However, I find it staggering that I could only find 3 horses running today that according to the sporting press supremos agree should be winners today

3.00 Ayr Kolisi 11/8.  Has to bounce back

6.05 Win Daiquirie Francais odds on 5/6 (5/4 last night)

7.35 Win Tregony 11/10 (was odds on 4/5 last night)

I realise that this type of info is likely to see @Villa Chrisrolling on the floor laughing but it does indicate how difficult it may be for favourite backers to find winners today.

I won't be backing any of the above runners but hope to come back later with some better priced triers later on

 

[MCLARKE]

I agree. I normally like short priced favourites but none really appeal today.

Flat selection

Windsor 5.05

EXCELLENT GEORGE 4/1

[azzybear]

tilsillet 4.35

[ipswich45]

Windsor Picks:
1705 - 1 Excellent George     Unplaced
1735 - 2 Willingly   2nd
1805 - 2 Alya's Gold Award
1835 - 5 Strike Me A Pose
1905 - 3 Oh It's Saucepot
1935 - 8 Stay Cool
2005 - 2 Calcutta Dream

Ripon Picks:
1755 - 5 Form Of Praise  Unplaced
1825 - 8 Isladaay
1855 - 2 Barn Owl
1925 - 1 Cuban Dancer
1955 - 3 Kraken Power
2025 - 6 Come On Linda

Edited August 9, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added

[The Equaliser]

Completely uninspired this afternoon

5.05 Win Excellent George £2 win at 6.4 = £10.58 if it wins (sorry if I put the mockers on @MCLARKEselection.  I've napped it too ?

8.05 Win Vive La Danse £1 win at 11/1 (interesting to see how it compare with Pump It Up today)

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, azzybear said:

tilsillet 4.35

i had thia gutted didnt put place at price lol

[Villa Chris]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have had very little time to look at today's racing. However, I find it staggering that I could only find 3 horses running today that according to the sporting press supremos agree should be winners today

3.00 Ayr Kolisi 11/8.  Has to bounce back

6.05 Win Daiquirie Francais odds on 5/6 (5/4 last night)

7.35 Win Tregony 11/10 (was odds on 4/5 last night)

I realise that this type of info is likely to see @Villa Chrisrolling on the floor laughing but it does indicate how difficult it may be for favourite backers to find winners today.

I won't be backing any of the above runners but hope to come back later with some better priced triers later on

 

From memory, and there hasn’t been many, but every odds on/ evens horse I’ve bet on has got beat . 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

From memory, and there hasn’t been many, but every odds on/ evens horse I’ve bet on has got beat . 

I have posted 8 lucky 15's in the last 8 days that's 32 horses look at the ones that won and look at the ones that lost, If you want to back short priced horses, well good luck with that my friends. This punter just can't make money backing them so i look for the best price that can win not those that are expected to win.

 

[Villa Chris]

31 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I have posted 8 lucky 15's in the last 8 days that's 32 horses look at the ones that won and look at the ones that lost, If you want to back short priced horses, well good luck with that my friends. This punter just can't make money backing them so i look for the best price that can win not those that are expected to win.

 

I remember having a discussion with you a while back about napping horses with big odds. I didn’t get it, but yes the price of an horse can be very misleading at times. 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I have posted 8 lucky 15's in the last 8 days that's 32 horses look at the ones that won and look at the ones that lost, If you want to back short priced horses, well good luck with that my friends. This punter just can't make money backing them so i look for the best price that can win not those that are expected to win.

 

Very good point.  The real problem is that even a 150/1 shot can win a race.  I think we have to work out what is the best form line to follow for the race in question and then work on the best genuine recent form that is on offer from the runners in the race.  In the 8.05 at Windsor I chose Vive La Danse as my selection; it had ran close to Pump It up last time and despite the golden girl being aboard I thought that it may beat it this time.  I was obviously wrong but the two horses were 13 lengths ahead of the next horse so this appears to be the best form line.  However, their previous race was a class 6, 0 - 55 and the jolly old favourite had been in a class 6 , 0 - 65 race previously and on soft ground ( I don't buy the trainer's explanation about not liking the heavy going.  Hence, how can one tell beforehand which was the best form line to follow?  ?

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Completely uninspired this afternoon

5.05 Win Excellent George £2 win at 6.4 = £10.58 if it wins (sorry if I put the mockers on @MCLARKEselection.  I've napped it too ?

8.05 Win Vive La Danse £1 win at 11/1 (interesting to see how it compare with Pump It Up today)

RESULTS UPDATE

Excellent George ran a stinker, so much for it supposedly being in good form.  My second selection got beat but only 1/2 length by none other than Pump It Up.  £3 loss today so my new balance is £714.69 (Bank £1056.22)

There is one class 3 and 4 class 4 races tomorrow from 4 meetings + some other races that may be of interest.  Looks to be a bit better than today

 

[Zilzalian]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very good point.  The real problem is that even a 150/1 shot can win a race.  I think we have to work out what is the best form line to follow for the race in question and then work on the best genuine recent form that is on offer from the runners in the race.  In the 8.05 at Windsor I chose Vive La Danse as my selection; it had ran close to Pump It up last time and despite the golden girl being aboard I thought that it may beat it this time.  I was obviously wrong but the two horses were 13 lengths ahead of the next horse so this appears to be the best form line.  However, their previous race was a class 6, 0 - 55 and the jolly old favourite had been in a class 6 , 0 - 65 race previously and on soft ground ( I don't buy the trainer's explanation about not liking the heavy going.  Hence, how can one tell beforehand which was the best form line to follow?  ?

I also backed viva la dance (12/1) but as for how can you tell the best form line to follow, the simple answer is, you can't. One thing to remember though is be very weary of asking a horse to do something it has never done before especially older horses against horses that have, no matter what the press says. CD/Ground are primary factors when choosing what to back, yesterday i listened to Andrew Balding talking about a horse he put in a G3 he said he did it because he didnt want it to win because of its mark (go listen to it now on Sportinglife website) thats what punters are up against.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

CD/Ground are primary factors

I tend to be wary of CD winners as this is one of the easiest pieces of info to find so they are often overbet

[Villa Chris]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I also backed viva la dance (12/1) but as for how can you tell the best form line to follow, the simple answer is, you can't. One thing to remember though is be very weary of asking a horse to do something it has never done before especially older horses against horses that have, no matter what the press says. CD/Ground are primary factors when choosing what to back, yesterday i listened to Andrew Balding talking about a horse he put in a G3 he said he did it because he didnt want it to win because of its mark (go listen to it now on Sportinglife website) thats what punters are up against.

I’m not sure if he’s right or wrong in what he’s done there, but for the people that bet on that horse in the race they have a right to be angry. I get that trainers have to play cat and mouse with the handicapper, though. Going and Distance is a big factor for an horse, although younger horses can improve upped in distance . 

[Villa Chris]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I tend to be wary of CD winners as this is one of the easiest pieces of info to find so they are often overbet

Maybe overbet , but I think course form has some substance. For starters you’ve got Right/Left handed tracks ,  Sharp tracks,  Different types of fences at different tracks, undulations, even something like a course with a long run in after the final fence/hurdle for example will suit some horses over others. Some horses course form speaks for itself and they improve a lot most of the time when running there. Then you’ll have horses with a dismal record at that particular track, but was there a valid reason for it running bad there ? That’s what we need to work out. You may see patterns where a normally consistent horse form reads 1132592, and again 25123041. If that 9th and 10th came at the same course or a course very similar to each other then that could indicate the horse really doesn’t like it there, or on tracks like that. 

[MCLARKE]

I am sure they all have some bearing on finding winners, but ultimately we are looking for value rather than winners. It would take a lot of time to analyse each horse in each race to the level that you suggest. Even then pure form figures only tell a part of the story, is a winner of a 5 runner race better than a 2nd in a 12 runner race?

C winners are not as overbet as D and CD but the AE is still less than 1.

[Wildgarden]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

I am sure they all have some bearing on finding winners, but ultimately we are looking for value rather than winners. It would take a lot of time to analyse each horse in each race to the level that you suggest. Even then pure form figures only tell a part of the story, is a winner of a 5 runner race better than a 2nd in a 12 runner race?

C winners are not as overbet as D and CD but the AE is still less than 1.

yeah but some are more profitable for c and d at some courses and some at heavy loss, dependant on track biases

[MCLARKE]

Fair point. The danger is that when you start looking at individual courses then the sample size becomes smaller and less reliable.

I'll have a look and see what conclusions I come too.

[Wildgarden]

16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Fair point. The danger is that when you start looking at individual courses then the sample size becomes smaller and less reliable.

I'll have a look and see what conclusions I come too.

i got 1% less roi for c and d 1 time and 2% less for 2 time c and d (up to 8-1 handicap only). bath is terrible for 2 time c and d minus 39% roi potential laying opportunity lol. chester minus 19% 2 time c and d. york minus 38% c and d 1 time. these ones with track bias could make the difference on overall stats maybe. only a thought.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Maybe overbet , but I think course form has some substance. For starters you’ve got Right/Left handed tracks ,  Sharp tracks,  Different types of fences at different tracks, undulations, even something like a course with a long run in after the final fence/hurdle for example will suit some horses over others. Some horses course form speaks for itself and they improve a lot most of the time when running there. Then you’ll have horses with a dismal record at that particular track, but was there a valid reason for it running bad there ? That’s what we need to work out. You may see patterns where a normally consistent horse form reads 1132592, and again 25123041. If that 9th and 10th came at the same course or a course very similar to each other then that could indicate the horse really doesn’t like it there, or on tracks like that. 

@MCLARKE is correct, CD is over bet but my point is/was that when looking for bigger prices re value, CD and ground is a good guide, example- 3 horses lets say 7/4 fav 6/1 and 12/1 all have won over CD, that 12/1 with CD is of great interest to me against others in the betting that say 3 others in the race at 12/1 who haven't a CD. In handicaps we all know they are as bent as nine bob notes what you have to decide is--- is the horse good enough to win this race, some are and some are not so elimination is a great tool to finding winners. consider this if you manage to find a 20/1 winner then you can be wrong 18 times thereafter and still be in profit whereas if you back favs or short prices then you have to be correct a hell of a lot of times to stay in profit, a look at the naps tables (most winners) shows you that it is very hard to make good money consistently on short price horses. For me form is well over rated because we see "the form horse" not only get beat but run absolute stinkers far too often for it to be true much of the time, and its a poor excuse to use the term "horses are not machines" because we already know that anyway. I think the biggest problem when betting is finding excuses for being wrong or blaming this and that? (i often do this myself immediately after a race) the other thing we do is forget that in a handicap all the horses are supposed to technically finish level so a 20 runner field again technically its a 20/1 shot that you will be correct with your choice, my idea is, well why not take a chance on a 16/1-20/1 in a 20 runner handicap than a 3/1 shot in a 20 runner handicap look at the results every day there are dozens of double figure winners. Listed/Group racing for me is a totally different sport because they are not running for prize money but breeding money. so shorter prices have to be considered or given the same thoughts as an outsider and vice versa.

 

[Villa Chris]

Before I got serious with my horse racing, I only ever used to bet on big odds horses. Didn’t see the point in going for short priced horses 

[MCLARKE]

14 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Listed/Group racing for me is a totally different sport because they are not running for prize money but breeding money. so shorter prices have to be considered

Totally agree, AE for class 1 races is 1.03 for favourites, 0.98 for the remainder.

[gbettle]

All this chat about courses reminds me of all the hard work Steve Jones has already done:

https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/flattrack.htm

and 

https://www.cdsystems.uk.com/nhtrack.htm

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

yeah but some are more profitable for c and d at some courses and some at heavy loss, dependant on track biases

A quick look at course winners for years 14-19 show the most profitable courses to be :-

Nottingham AE 1.11

Chepstow AE 1.10

Beverley AE 1.08

However in 2020 all these courses showed losses with AEs of 0.90 for Nottingham, 0.72 for Chepstow and 0.91 for Beverley.