Racing Chat - Tuesday 10th August

[Zilzalian]

Okay more rubbish racing today so todays Fun 40p Lucky 15 should be a 20pew fun lucky 15, cost £6.00 I hate ew but common sense should prevail when posting.

350 wolves Kylachy castle                 33/1

720 chelm   Bint Australia                   10/1

820 chelm   Affair                                12/1

850 chelm Honey Pot                          8/1

Another duff day 3 of them came 4th which just about sums ew betting up so will avoid ew again just win no matter what the prices (never say never)

Bank has slipped to £84.00 from a ton but tomorrow is another day even a double will see us back in profit so all is not grim.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[roger2256]

August-1 

1pt level stakes win only 

15.00 Not Far Too Beautiful 14/1 

16.45 Not Snow Berry 14/1

Prices as of now b365 

17.35 Lin Yorktown 22/1 PP

Edited August 10, 2021 by roger2256
Addition

[Offramp]

I'm having a go on the first 5 races of today. It's a 7p EW Canadian.

[azzybear]

globol art 1.00 

[The Equaliser]

Haven't looked at much of today's cards yet because I'm starting to set up copies of race cards in an effort to do some post race analysis.  Hopefully will prove fruitful.  Will have to wait and see

Of the ones I have looked at :

2.40 Wolv Split Elevens (KS) £2 win at 11/2 + ins bet on Seeking Perfection £1.10 at 15/8 = poss return £3.16

3.15 Wolv Spring Glow (HT) £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98.  Midrarr is now odds on but this race is a bit too short for it imo so no ins bet for me

The 4.10 at Nott is interesting Bellavarde is favourite with the blessing of the big 3 sporting media press.  It has a 4lbs penalty and although Ben Curtis is riding it does not have the benefit of the 5lbs claimed by Angus Villiers last time.  There looks to be strong market support for Latin Five with Kevin Stott aboard but I don't fancy dutching the two as there are a couple of other dangers in the race.  I am not playing

Quite short prices in the later races for me so I may or may not bother with them

 3.35 Nott Motagally £3 win at 3.0 = £5.88 Profit if it wins (more a market mover bet than anything else)

 

Edited August 10, 2021 by The Equaliser
Update

[Offramp]

Whatever the weather, Wolverhampton is STANDARD, which is useful. 

At normal courses, after a downpour, the first few races are okay. The turf keeps it integrity. Later on the course gets all churned up. It looks like Stamford Bridge in 1986.

 

[alexcaruso808]

43 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Haven't looked at much of today's cards yet because I'm starting to set up copies of race cards in an effort to do some post race analysis.  Hopefully will prove fruitful.  Will have to wait and see

What do you look for in post race analysis? Are you essentially trying to work out why the winner won? 

[black rabbit]

The Tron   2 40 wolv   1/4  pt win    32/1  betfair

Jackamundo  3 00  nott   1/4  pt win   23/1  betfair

 

 

P/L   + 117 pts

 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Nottingham 2.25

TYPEWRITER 13/8

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

What do you look for in post race analysis? Are you essentially trying to work out why the winner won? 

Hi Alex, there are something like 208 horses running today at the four meetings, on a Saturday there can be more than 500.  I am looking at the commentaries to find hints that a runner may run well.  I do the same with the Time form commentaries on the ATR website.  If the comments are positive about a horse then I like to check into the runner a bit further as to genuine recent form, Class, Distance, Going preferences, type of race, course etc. The idea is to cut down working through all the runners separately which is a mammoth task for one individual.  I have to say that I am very suspicious about the recommendations of both the Racing Post and the ATR website.  As I understand it Timeform is owned by Flutter Entertainment Plc formerly, Paddy Power Bookmakers and, although the Racing Post seems to be independent, it openly says it offers a wide range of valuable services to bookmakers and other partners  https://www.racingpost.com/news/racing-post-group-rebrands-as-spotlight-sports-group/421572  .  I find it hard to believe sometimes what the Racing Post and Timeform so called professionals come out with regard to a horse's ability to win a race. I am hoping that by checking back through some results in the future that I will prove to myself one way or another whether the whole media circus is cleverly orchestrated to mislead the general public into backing a lot of horses that simply do not have the best chance of winning a race.  I do believe that punters can win some money by using published information but the trick is learning to take notice of what is significant and dismiss codswallop.  It is my goal to find winners by using published information.  Other people like to go by ratings, their own in many cases.  I have never managed to find anything reliable in published ratings and do not intend to try and set my own up as I don't think that it will be worthwhile.  As I have told you before the people who have told me that they make a living out of horse racing do so by watching and re-watching runners that come together in their races.  They form their own opinion which one will do best in a race given the day's racing conditions.  This is not for me but I would highly recommend that you try it as you seem to be very keen to be successful

 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Haven't looked at much of today's cards yet because I'm starting to set up copies of race cards in an effort to do some post race analysis.  Hopefully will prove fruitful.  Will have to wait and see

Of the ones I have looked at :

2.40 Wolv Split Elevens (KS) £2 win at 11/2 + ins bet on Seeking Perfection £1.10 at 15/8 = poss return £3.16

3.15 Wolv Spring Glow (HT) £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98.  Midrarr is now odds on but this race is a bit too short for it imo so no ins bet for me

The 4.10 at Nott is interesting Bellavarde is favourite with the blessing of the big 3 sporting media press.  It has a 4lbs penalty and although Ben Curtis is riding it does not have the benefit of the 5lbs claimed by Angus Villiers last time.  There looks to be strong market support for Latin Five with Kevin Stott aboard but I don't fancy dutching the two as there are a couple of other dangers in the race.  I am not playing

Quite short prices in the later races for me so I may or may not bother with them

 3.35 Nott Motagally £3 win at 3.0 = £5.88 Profit if it wins (more a market mover bet than anything else)

 

Well that didn't work.  A Trixie at Lingfield tonight

6.35 Great News 9/4

7.35 Willoughby Bay 13/8

8.05 The Greatestshowman 6/4

One £2 win trixie = £8.00 = poss return of £89.08

 

[alexcaruso808]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi Alex, there are something like 208 horses running today at the four meetings, on a Saturday there can be more than 500.  I am looking at the commentaries to find hints that a runner may run well.  I do the same with the Time form commentaries on the ATR website.  If the comments are positive about a horse then I like to check into the runner a bit further as to genuine recent form, Class, Distance, Going preferences, type of race, course etc. The idea is to cut down working through all the runners separately which is a mammoth task for one individual.  I have to say that I am very suspicious about the recommendations of both the Racing Post and the ATR website.  As I understand it Timeform is owned by Flutter Entertainment Plc formerly, Paddy Power Bookmakers and, although the Racing Post seems to be independent, it openly says it offers a wide range of valuable services to bookmakers and other partners  https://www.racingpost.com/news/racing-post-group-rebrands-as-spotlight-sports-group/421572  .  I find it hard to believe sometimes what the Racing Post and Timeform so called professionals come out with regard to a horse's ability to win a race. I am hoping that by checking back through some results in the future that I will prove to myself one way or another whether the whole media circus is cleverly orchestrated to mislead the general public into backing a lot of horses that simply do not have the best chance of winning a race.  I do believe that punters can win some money by using published information but the trick is learning to take notice of what is significant and dismiss codswallop.  It is my goal to find winners by using published information.  Other people like to go by ratings, their own in many cases.  I have never managed to find anything reliable in published ratings and do not intend to try and set my own up as I don't think that it will be worthwhile.  As I have told you before the people who have told me that they make a living out of horse racing do so by watching and re-watching runners that come together in their races.  They form their own opinion which one will do best in a race given the day's racing conditions.  This is not for me but I would highly recommend that you try it as you seem to be very keen to be successful

 

Thanks for the detailed answer. It can be very overwhelming when looking through a lot of races.  To my own end, I try to stick with one meeting. 

I tend to find a jockey and a trainer who have a good record at a particular track, and use that to filter out horses that I fancy. I guess that no system is 100% though! 

I also think that most of these expert tipsters are linked to bookies, and I tend to ignore them. 

[The Equaliser]

21 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks for the detailed answer. It can be very overwhelming when looking through a lot of races.  To my own end, I try to stick with one meeting. 

I tend to find a jockey and a trainer who have a good record at a particular track, and use that to filter out horses that I fancy. I guess that no system is 100% though! 

I also think that most of these expert tipsters are linked to bookies, and I tend to ignore them. 

I wouldn't suggest that you try the 2.55 at Newbury Betvictor handicap on  Saturday with 27 runners but maybe if you could try just one of your chosen races (with a small field) to look back at re-runs of  your own selection then the other horses (preferably after you have decided which one you would go for).  You never know you may find some benefit from doing so.  If you sign up to Sporting Life for free then you can review races for nothing.  I'm just trying to help you along in hopefully what may become a successful career, nothing more

 

[alexcaruso808]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I wouldn't suggest that you try the 2.55 at Newbury Betvictor handicap on  Saturday with 27 runners but maybe if you could try just one of your chosen races (with a small field) to look back at re-runs of  your own selection then the other horses (preferably after you have decided which one you would go for).  You never know you may find some benefit from doing so.  If you sign up to Sporting Life for free then you can review races for nothing.  I'm just trying to help you along in hopefully what may become a successful career, nothing more

 

Thank you my friend, all your expertise and advice is appreciated.  ?

[The Equaliser]

43 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thank you my friend, all your expertise and advice is appreciated.  ?

Just trying to help.  If you or anyone else tries this I would also recommend to check out the ATR website and view the "course guide" You have to imagine your horse running over today's course and distance and compare it with its previous run(s) over a different course.  Just thought I would mention that

 

[Zilzalian]

7 hours ago, black rabbit said:

The Tron   2 40 wolv   1/4  pt win    32/1  betfair

Jackamundo  3 00  nott   1/4  pt win   23/1  betfair

 

 

P/L   + 117 pts

 

Hope you did the ew double bog 80/1 the tron was very good value i looked and looked at it at 33/1 and then passed it over.

[foxinexile]

A brilliant day for the Top Rated tips. Thanks @Brigadier! 

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well that didn't work.  A Trixie at Lingfield tonight

6.35 Great News 9/4

7.35 Willoughby Bay 13/8

8.05 The Greatestshowman 6/4

One £2 win trixie = £8.00 = poss return of £89.08

 

RESULTS UPDATE

The irony about today's results is that if I had followed my favourite jockeys/top apprentices I would have won.  Where there is a conflict between them in future I may well choose the jockey mount over the favourite and perhaps have a saver on the favourite.  The loss today was £16.10 which meant that my new balance is £698.59 (Bank £1056.22)

Looking at the results of our esteemed media tipsters today is quite revealing.  This is where Racing Post(Spotlight) , ATR/Oddschecker and Timeform all select the same horse..

2.40 Wolves Seeking Perfection 4th 2/1 Fav

3.15 Wolves Midrarr Won Evens Fav

4.10 Nott Bellavarde 3rd 6/4 Fav

6.05 Lin Angel Amadea 3rd 5/6 Fav

7.20 Chelm Nibras Shadow 6th 11/8 Fav

8.05 Lin Thegreatestshowman 4th 6/4 Fav

FEEL THE POWER! Or should I say roll on the floor laughing @Villa Chris

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Nottingham 2.25

TYPEWRITER 13/8

Won BSP 2.61. 

28 / 87 lsp 20.78.

[Offramp]

I would like to add 2cents to @The Equaliser.

In bookies, especially TOTE (there were 2 Totes in Tooting), there was a guy employed as a marker, and he would change the odds on a blackboard. Pre-Internet days.

The marker lorded it over the packed, smoky atmosphere. Full of paddies and Jamaicans, everyone smoking. Can i say that? Smoking?

The marker used to make UP-TO-THE-MINUTE comments about odds. BTW coverage was from the radio: in those days wireless was radio.

His frequent comment was that bookies (remember this was the Tote system) were "taking the p1ss". 

We do know this idea, of bookies, like Ladbr0kes, putting money on a complete LOSER of a horse so that the odds began to shorten and loads of punters will think "Blimey, that horse is going to win...etc".

As the geezer said, "They are taking the p1ss!"

OKAY, I think I saw that kind of this yesterday, really clearly.

Here at Punter's Lounge right here I saw something at https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings/brazil-serie-a (football Elos).

Our site gave me a winner: (you won't believe how weird this football league we are talking about).

AVAI v GUARANI 23:00 Football Brazilian Serie B 10/08/2021.

I got Guarani at 2/1, but Punters Lounge here at that link spotted Guarani! Well done! I had no idea who the hell Guarani were, and Punters Lounge were right!

I think the online bookmakers often make some football teams as heavily favourites for those football coupons where people are after 5 HOMES.

They are taking the p1ss!

BTW, the TOTE is a very good bookmaker. It is run I think on the French PMU system.

[alexcaruso808]

I would trust the choices and tips given on Punters Lounge over any tips from bookies or "Pro tipsters" etc. The members here have no loyalties to any bookies (I would imagine so anyway) so there is no reason to give tips that will benefit bookmakers. 

[Villa Chris]

32 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I would trust the choices and tips given on Punters Lounge over any tips from bookies or "Pro tipsters" etc. The members here have no loyalties to any bookies (I would imagine so anyway) so there is no reason to give tips that will benefit bookmakers. 

Was going to say the same yesterday. This place is better than most tipsters. I advise everyone to avoid my selections though ?

Edited August 11, 2021 by Villa Chris