Villa Chris

Ascot 2.30 Eighteen speedy two year old fillies line up for the Albany Stakes. The Crisford’s Carla’s Way looked good at Doncaster on her debut and is on the short list along with Roger Varian’s Jabaara a 3/4L winner at Newmarket on her debut but my fancy is Michael O’Callaghan’s Navassa Island who ran a remarkable race on her debut when flashing home to finish runner up in a Group 3 at Naas won by Porta Fortuna who re-opposes here. I confidently expect her to turn the tables and looks good each way value.   NAVASSA ISLAND 1 point each way 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Ascot 3.05 Little Big Bear will be very popular here having bounced back to form in the Sandy Lane at Haydock and he will be very hard to beat. Sakheer drips back sprinting after not staying the mile in the 2000 guineas and looks a threat along with Lezoo who herself failed to stay in the first fillies classic. I’ll stick with Little Big Bear to score for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore.   LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points win @ 5/4 Skybet   Ascot 3.40 Another competitive handicap, this time over 1M 4F with the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap. The most interesting runner is the Charlie Appleby trained Al Nafir who could be well treated having not been seen for 259 days. The Varian runner Nagano has been off for 664 days but wouldn’t be out of this whilst Live Your Dream looks another with claims. Another tough call but the vibes are right for Al Nafir so he’ll do for me.   AL NAFIR 1 point each way 9/2 bet365 1/5 12345   Ascot 4.20 In the absence of Godolphin’s Mawj who was an eleventh hour absentee It’s very hard to oppose Dermot Weld’s top three year old filly Tahiyra who followed up a credible second to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas with an authoritative victory in the Irish version from Mediate and Comhra. Mammas Girl and Remarquee were well behind her in the 1000 Guineas and the biggest threat to the favourite may come from the Gosden’s Queen For You who can reverse York form with Sounds Of Heaven but she is still rated some 18lb inferior to Tahiyra and this really is hers to lose. Mediate has been beaten three times by Tahiyra and can also hit the frame again.   TAHIYRA 3 1/2 points win 4/7 bet365   Ascot 5.00 A wide open handicap for three year old fillies spread across the course over a mile. Coppice was touted as a 1000 Guineas horse in the spring for the Gosden’s before blotting his copybook in the Nell Gwyn. She’s bounced back to form since in a weak race at Newcastle and is one for the short list. Aiden O’Brien’s Jackie Oh ran well in the Irish 1000 last time and can also run well whilst Orchid Bloom and Copy Artist are two at bigger odds that could run well. A tough call but I’ll stick with Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore to strike with Jacki Oh in a race where the fancied horses usually run well.   JACKIE OH 1 point each way @ 7/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234567   Ascot 5.35 Only six go to post for the King Edward VII stakes which looks likely to go to the Roger Varian trained King Of Steel who ran a remarkable race in the Derby when beating all bar the winner Auguste Rodin. Officially 7lb better than these and holding the second favourite Arrest, Artistic Star and Dubai Mile on Epsom form and is a confident selection.   KING OF STEEL 2 points win @ 11-10 William Hill   Ascot 6.10 A minefield of a race with 29 three year olds hurtling down the track. The one for early money has been George Boughey’s Conquistador who we haven’t seen for 90 days and win or lose looks poor value to me at his current odds of around 6/1. The 5F listed contest at York at the Dante meeting may be the best form guide here with seven of them running there. Pillow Talk beat all bar the winner Great State and her subsequent defeat in France can be put down to her not staying the 6th furlong or the race coming too soon. She may be the value bet now back at 5F.   PILLOW TALK 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345              

That’s flat racing for you.  You don’t know who’s declined or progressed from a year ago, or how good some of these horses are who have hardly raced .  Who’s been hiding away in lower class races ready to grab a big pot at the festival . Tricky business, I prefer races 4 years plus , or 3 years plus isn’t too bad and that’s hard enough. 

That’s flat racing for you.  You don’t know who’s declined or progressed from a year ago, or how good some of these horses are who have hardly raced .  Who’s been hiding away in lower class races ready to grab a big pot at the festival . Tricky business, I prefer races 4 years plus , or 3 years plus isn’t too bad and that’s hard enough. 

Glad all’s ok 

One winner 7/1 Stake back 

Ran well but got constantly pestered whilst trying to make the running again which made life harder for him finished 3rd 
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +148.94

Thanks for that @harry_rag much appreciated. i didn't think i would get the chance my proposed incarceration turned out to be a bit of an overreaction from an enthusiastic receptionist, i was referred straight back to my attic. (28p back for the place on got to love a grey btw)

I give a lot of my betting profits to charity anyway so I don't feel any guilt !

treble 0.50 EW
3.05 Struth 22/1 
4.20 Subjectivist 8/1
6.10 Accidental Agent 33/1
Win pays £3,572,35  place pays £ 53.35
Doubles  0.50 EW 
3.05 Bertinelli 6/1 Struth 22/1
4.20 Coltrane 3/1 Subjectivist 8/1
 

treble 0.50 EW
3.05 Struth 22/1 
4.20 Subjectivist 8/1
6.10 Accidental Agent 33/1
Win pays £3,572,35  place pays £ 53.35
Doubles  0.50 EW 
3.05 Bertinelli 6/1 Struth 22/1
4.20 Coltrane 3/1 Subjectivist 8/1
 

treble 0.50 EW
3.05 Struth 22/1 
4.20 Subjectivist 8/1
6.10 Accidental Agent 33/1
Win pays £3,572,35  place pays £ 53.35
Doubles  0.50 EW 
3.05 Bertinelli 6/1 Struth 22/1
4.20 Coltrane 3/1 Subjectivist 8/1
 

treble 0.50 EW
3.05 Struth 22/1 
4.20 Subjectivist 8/1
6.10 Accidental Agent 33/1
Win pays £3,572,35  place pays £ 53.35
Doubles  0.50 EW 
3.05 Bertinelli 6/1 Struth 22/1
4.20 Coltrane 3/1 Subjectivist 8/1
 

I noticed this it’s pretty shocking really. All profits from race are going to charity so maybe that has something to do with it.  

I noticed this it’s pretty shocking really. All profits from race are going to charity so maybe that has something to do with it.  

I noticed this it’s pretty shocking really. All profits from race are going to charity so maybe that has something to do with it.  

treble 0.50 EW
3.05 Struth 22/1 
4.20 Subjectivist 8/1
6.10 Accidental Agent 33/1
Win pays £3,572,35  place pays £ 53.35
Doubles  0.50 EW 
3.05 Bertinelli 6/1 Struth 22/1
4.20 Coltrane 3/1 Subjectivist 8/1
 

Same here. I’ve put Docklands  in my lucky 15 but left him out my ew Acca because of only paying 4 places 

Same here. I’ve put Docklands  in my lucky 15 but left him out my ew Acca because of only paying 4 places 

Hope all is ok mate and not too serious 

3pts e/w 6.10 Ascot RHOSCOLYN 12/1 Bog 6 places 6pts invested
Gutted I am only getting 12/1 on this horse was a lot bigger but can't not back it as I have been keeping an eye on it. So we'll handicapped at present will win soon imo.

I noticed this it’s pretty shocking really. All profits from race are going to charity so maybe that has something to do with it.  

Free bet to use......so split into 2 EW doubles 
ascot 2.30   American rascal 11/1 EW  &    3.05  Bertinelli  13/2 EW   5 places
ascot 3.40   Blue stocking 6/1  EW   3rd    &    4.20   Eldar Eldarov  9/2 EW     4 places
R.Moore treble for top 6 place ( betfair )   9/4......3.05 Bertinelli  3rd / 3.40 Warm heart  Won  / 4.20 emily dickenson  4th        Won 65 pts
 
ascot 2.30   Devious  16/1 EW    &     Thunder blue   40/1 EW
Ascot 3.05   Wonder legend   13/2 EW     &    Struth  28/1  EW      5 places betfair
ascot  3.40  Maman joon  22/1 EW     &   Al Asifah  win 2 lengths @ 9/4 
ascot  4.20  Courage mon ami  6/1  EW    4 places betfair      Won   69 pts
ascot  5.00  Racingbreaks ryder 10/1 EW         &    Fort vega   20/1  EW       4 places       
 
2 wins 🏆 🏆 so nice  profit 👍💷 ......soooo thanks to 'The Brigadier' for my profit with Frankie / gosden winner in Gold Cup 👍

There are 2 big heritage handicaps on the third day of Royal Ascot. The first is the King George V Stakes. It is open to 3-year-olds and is run over 1 mile 3 furlongs and 211 yards. The off time is 15.05.
22 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it an excellent betting proposition.
 
I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.
Outsiders do not have a good record. There have been 71 horses with forecast odds over 14/1 and none of them has won.
It is best to have had a decent break from the last run. Those horses that last ran more than 24 days ago have a record of 7 wins from 89 runs with a profit of 21 points at Betfair Starting Price. Those that ran more recently have won just 2 from 67 with a loss of 49 points.
Those horses drawn in stalls 1 to 7 have a poor record with just 1 win from 53 attempts.
The ideal weight range is 8st 9lbs to 8st 12lbs with 5 wins from 56 runs and a profit of 43 points.
 
2 horses meet these criteria.
DAVIDEO 14/1
VALIANT KING 12/1
I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5/6 places.

Brittania 5.00 asc 
Finns charm   8.5 40/1 
Saxon King 8.5  18/1 
Royal Cape 8.3  22/1 
Betterdayscomin  8.1 25/1 
Docklands   7.8 
Surely not   7.7 
Incredibly difficult race as you can tell by betting ... .bookies going  16/1 2nd fav !!!....so its gotta be worth a punt ..... biggest factor i have is I think 12 /24 winners were drawn within 5 of either rail .(50%) .....un fortunately all top 4 are all drawn within 5 ...noooo....but huge prices and stats are in their favour so I'll try 10pt wins all 4 and hope a nice win is on the cards 👍