Villa Chris

Not a bad day especially if you spotted Ruby Yeats in the first at Fontwell

 

Mahlermade 5/1 Doncaster 1.30 
Fortescue 9/4 Uttoxeter 1.55
Valence D Aumont 7/2 Uttoxeter 3.40

Skybet chase 
Azzerti  234 +2 
Good man pat 232 +2 
 Ravenhill road 229 +3 
Weights and runners changed so ratings altered accordingly .....top 2 look the ones I want to be on now although ravenhill could improve past them but that's speculative so I'll stick with top 2 
Azzerti 3.5pts win 9/1 willh
Good man pat 2.5pts win 12/1 bet365

Yeah I was just discussing with my friend and we agree we've gotta cover the forecast too ....if a 1000/1 forecast goes in and I missed it I'm throwing myself off a cliff lol

Just for the fun of it I thought I'd pass tomorrow's big race through the computer ....wasn't expecting much as the conditions are heavy and race looked like a 20 horse pinsticker but the computer threw 2 horses miles clear back at me 
Roaring bull 229 +2 
Monbeg notorious 225 +3 
Both trained by Gordon Elliot and both gigginstown horses .... I mean how interesting does that make them look now ??.....And if I tell you they are both currently available at 14/1 And 66/1!!!.......I mean that's just crazy .....I don't care if they finish plum last gotta steam in on these 2 I think ......think I'll grab the best ew prices later I can nearest to that and smash 10pts ew and fingers crossed for a nice payday .....especially on the outsider who has it all to do but has patchy form giving him chances so it's possible ......cmon Mr Elliot....!!!

3/4 win. .50p lucky 15 (£7.50 stake) rerurned just over 100 ?

Non runner probably did us a favour today especially as the ground was so bad I wasn't expecting much but overall finished with a 13.10 pt profit .....so that's as good as I could have wished for ....
Vintage clouds loves it at haydock and was looking really well weighted so he did himself justice .
Total profit 80.10pts .........total including returned stakes to date ..94.34 pts 

Espoir De Guye was a non runner for me so put it on Vintage Clouds luckily. Ran a blinder and looked like his old self .

Billingsley 5/1  3.45 Haydock 
Espoir De Guye 7/2   3.00 Ascot 

Billingsley 5/1  3.45 Haydock 
Espoir De Guye 7/2   3.00 Ascot 

Hard one....usually they circle or initial the price to confirm they put it on ...if it was written by you and not circled or anything then they can claim a mistake by their teller  that they accepted it without confirming first ......always let them search for the price and put it on then it's much harder for them to worm out of it ......but they shouldn't be rude so I'd have said well fuk you give me my money and I won't be back 

I always back Vintage Clouds. One of my favourite horses. Won’t be backing him over the national fences again though, and is well handicapped. Stayed on very well in its last run after it looked like he was going to finish nowhere again. 

I spent a few years concentrating on AW handicaps and formulated an opinion on race classes to concentrate on
For what it's worth my experience was that any race presented a betting opportunity but you were looking for different things
In the better class handicaps I was looking for horses that had a higher OR than their last winning mark ..... generally the younger and more lightly raced horses in the field....... these would be horses that were still on the up, still improving, moving up the grades
In the lower grade handicaps I was looking for horses falling down the weights who had won similar races in the past and were now getting back to their level ...... particularly if they were getting closer to the winner in their last two or three runs but still dropping in the weights
No evidence to back this up but it seemed to work for me!
 

@Villa Chris
I was once told by someone a lot more knowledgable than me " If you rummage around in garbage , your almost certain to come out with garbage"
In other words stick to the better class races and you'll get a better picture of how your selection methods are

@Villa Chris
I wouldn't be put off by 1 race, If you have an SR of say 35% you still have to get used to losing 65% of the time and thats the hard bit to take.
Find a system, method etc that you feel comfortable with and basically analyse it to death, it will save you money in the long run.
If your into statistical modelling then I can recommend Winning at the Races by William Quirin Phd a maths/computer science professor
Document every bet and dont bullshit yourself by blaming jockeys,horses trainers etc when things go wrong (and they will) as it wasn't them who made you put the bet on, at the end of the day it was your own decision.
Good luck whatever you chose .

Wow thats a golden oldie
I remember a similar method having a run of threads back on the now defunct Racing-Systems board around 2001 -2002 era if my memory serves me right.(or it might have been Gummy Board)
RPR (then called spotmark I think) ratings had a Black Spot for top rated and the bet of the day was the horse with the largest difference between the OR and the Black Spot rating from all the races on that day.
Had a purple patch then sort of fazed out when a few losers popped up.
In those days not much attention was paid to variance & standard deviation of results as databases were not that much in the public domain so back testing was sparse to say the least, if it was winning they'd lump on , then after a few losers and it would be on to the next latest system
Just out of interest the Top Rated qualifier today would be
3.10 Ling EPSOM DE MOTTES  rpr 118 - 77 or = 41 @ 11/8 B365

Thursday 09/01/2020
Newcastle 12:15 NOBLE BEHEST
f/c. 7/4
Stake =  10 pts. WIN
 
Leicester 02:50 LIGHTLY SQEEZE
f/c. 4/5
Stake =  10 pts. WIN
 

Chez Hans has its third British run today at Taunton. Owners Group syndicate and trained by Paul Nicholls. Was a birthday gift. Was 9/1 yesterday but around 5s now. Hopefully it can improve from its previous races.

Seeanythingyoulike 1/1  1.45
Captain Cattistock 1/1 3.30 
The Brothers 2/1  3.45 
11/1 treble 

Locker Room Talk was due to run at Hereford today but he’s been pulled out and put in the more lucrative 13.50 at Sandown tomorrow. Looks very well handicapped.
I also like Delire D Estruval in the same race. On a winnable mark and has previous C, D

Locker Room Talk was due to run at Hereford today but he’s been pulled out and put in the more lucrative 13.50 at Sandown tomorrow. Looks very well handicapped.
I also like Delire D Estruval in the same race. On a winnable mark and has previous C, D

to Punters Lounge @Villa Chris   

Kalashnikov has gone up even more from its last race. Very hard to back at the weights, although it will get very close . I’m on Cepage 8/1 EW.