richard-westwood Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 (edited) Had a few discussions with people and seems there's a taste for a bit of fun this year and a thirst for decent big wins ...... trying to get a bit of excitement involved in the weekly racing mainly the big weekend races and regular big festivals .....so I'll start this topic devoted solely to bets on 2 of the best weekend races ....prices allowing of course ....if I can only find 1 race with decent odds to risk ratio then it will be one or even none if all crap ......main aim is to just have a bit of fun with the weekend big races using my ratings whilst having a shot at a big win each week and who knows what could happen ....might bust out ....or with a touch of luck if I can build up a decent win here or there there might be an excess at some point enough to book a nice holiday ......small excess it might just be a weekend in bath lol... or a good couple of weeks and suddenly 600 or 900 up and you could be looking at a week or two somewhere more exotic .... I love my racing anyway and I like to get involved anyway so can't really lose but it will certainly be fun to try and if the first race wins each week it will generate some exciting 2nd races especially if the prices are big and you are looking at booking up that week ...eek...I.e 3pts on 12/1 is 39 pts ....carrying onto 16/1 2nd leg ..wins around 663 for the doubles and aboutv140 for the singles roughly so that's 800pts ....airport here I come !! I've come up with a few rules and strategy .....I'll stick mainly to big hcaps and probably rate as many as I can ....hopefully 4+ and pick the strongest 2 races I can where the top 2 are furthest ahead of the 3rd rated .....that should be a good starting point ... Also one of the top 2 must be in the first 5 betting ....as this seems to boost the horses chance twofold sometimes ....it doesn't matter about the 2nd horse as that is effectively the race wildcard and backable at any price especially as win bets I'll be paying attention to betfair prices on the outsiders because I've lost count how many times I've backed at 16/1 with bet365 only to see 25.0 later on betfair which will make a huge difference long term ..... Also I will only be backing Friday evening so as to avoid any non runners .....might mean slightly smaller odds but guaranteed best chance of a run and no loss due to any antepost rules so that will avoid silly losses ... Overall .....it's not hard ....only what id be doing anyway so I may as well have a shot and have some fun with it Start Friday Edited January 5, 2020 by richard-westwood Horseoats, vikki37, yossa6133 and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just preparing for first race this week ....I think the lanzarote hurdle will be the first leg this week ....currently 25 runners I've passed the race through the computer and it threw out 4 horses Alfa mix Burrows edge Echiquier Northofthewall I'm open to any suggestions or thoughts from any one....name of the game is to pick the winner from 2 selections however that happens so any thoughts appreciated ... My current thinking is to wait And see what betting says to see if that helps .....Im thinking top 4 in betting for selection 1 is a must so that might be helpful or not 2nd I'm sure I've read can Skelton does well in this so even though a novice and only raced at 2 mile really Northofthewall is catching the eye too .....Intersting race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 (edited) Alfa mix 8/1 Burrows edge 8/1 Echiquier 16/1 Northofthewall 9/1 Current prices suggest echiquier is the weakest of the 4 ....I had Alfa mix written down before I started rating due to his good win on a classy race last time with potentially more to come...yes he's been raised about 9lb but you generally need a touch of class to win this so I'm happy to see him qualifying so def8nately runner 1 I think with a run ....8/1 would be a fair win start too Not sure on other horses yet ....echiquier has patchy form that gives him ew chances at best .....Burrows edge represents good trainer but fell last time which isn't a good prep for a competitive race ......Northofthewall is a lightly weighted improving novice ....I currently think he's 10 -12lb behind Alfa but could improve drastically now stepped up and firing for good trainer ....food for thought Edited January 6, 2020 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Point the way Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Good luck Richard. Looking forward to your selections. Good luck at wolvo this month ? richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) God ....a day or two later and 2nd pass is usually more accurate but the weights have changed and settled a lot altering the results completely ... My previous fancy Alfa mix still has a good chance but has dropped to 5th on account of the 13lb rise ...not 9lb ...hccapper has hammered him so although still good that's gonna make life difficult now ...I'll be gutted if still wins now but I've got to trust the ratings Chti balko Burrows park Burrows edge Northofthewall Alfa mix This is such a hard race ..really is complicated .....I really did like Northofthewall due to trainers decent record but I keep looking at that last run and to be fair it was nothing special ...maybe improved a couple of pounds but is he suddenly going to improve 10lbs + which I think is what is needed and is he even going to handle this distance in such a competitive race ...it's very debatable making his current price a bit crap value tbh ... Burrows edge is an enigma ....could run really well and is weighted to place ....but falling last time is not ideal So currently that leaves burrow park ...and chti balko....I can oppose both tbh ....Burrows park has struggled off this mark in past but has he improved now ??? And chti balko is high in the weights and 8yo both negatives from trends which isn't good but the 10 length destruction of Burrows park is still fresh and collateral form does seem to frank the rating as chti should finish ahead of burrow on that race even allowing for the definite improvement of the latter .....I can't see the ratings changing much now barring the top horses non running so at the moment its looking Chti balko Burrow park Both are decent prices currently around 12/1 ....hopefully nothing will change by Friday So I can start looking for a 2nd leg now Edited January 7, 2020 by richard-westwood yossa6133 and 2hot2trot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 On 1/7/2020 at 8:29 PM, richard-westwood said: God ....a day or two later and 2nd pass is usually more accurate but the weights have changed and settled a lot altering the results completely ... My previous fancy Alfa mix still has a good chance but has dropped to 5th on account of the 13lb rise ...not 9lb ...hccapper has hammered him so although still good that's gonna make life difficult now ...I'll be gutted if still wins now but I've got to trust the ratings Chti balko Burrows park Burrows edge Northofthewall Alfa mix This is such a hard race ..really is complicated .....I really did like Northofthewall due to trainers decent record but I keep looking at that last run and to be fair it was nothing special ...maybe improved a couple of pounds but is he suddenly going to improve 10lbs + which I think is what is needed and is he even going to handle this distance in such a competitive race ...it's very debatable making his current price a bit crap value tbh ... Burrows edge is an enigma ....could run really well and is weighted to place ....but falling last time is not ideal So currently that leaves burrow park ...and chti balko....I can oppose both tbh ....Burrows park has struggled off this mark in past but has he improved now ??? And chti balko is high in the weights and 8yo both negatives from trends which isn't good but the 10 length destruction of Burrows park is still fresh and collateral form does seem to frank the rating as chti should finish ahead of burrow on that race even allowing for the definite improvement of the latter .....I can't see the ratings changing much now barring the top horses non running so at the moment its looking Chti balko Burrow park Both are decent prices currently around 12/1 ....hopefully nothing will change by Friday So I can start looking for a 2nd leg now Well .....disappointing I must say ....chti balko out ....Alfa out ......and on top of that I can't find a suitable 2nd leg this week all the other races there are only a couple of points between the top 3 or 4 in each race so will have to be this single race only this week and I'll trust the ratings and go on the 2 burrow horses .... Burrows edge 11.89pts 13/2 bet365 Burrows park 8.11pts 10/1 bet365 2x1pt rev forecast Almost 70pt profit if either wins yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) On 1/10/2020 at 1:43 PM, richard-westwood said: Well .....disappointing I must say ....chti balko out ....Alfa out ......and on top of that I can't find a suitable 2nd leg this week all the other races there are only a couple of points between the top 3 or 4 in each race so will have to be this single race only this week and I'll trust the ratings and go on the 2 burrow horses .... Burrows edge 11.89pts 13/2 bet365 Burrows park 8.11pts 10/1 bet365 2x1pt rev forecast Almost 70pt profit if either wins Bit dramatic but a win is a win ...67pts pts profit I'll keep 2 running totals ....total profit and a running total including stakes and profit cos if I can bet 20 or 30pts each week and use same money plus profit to pay for an exotic hol I'd still call that a win win Total profit 67pts ......total including returned stakes 78pts .....start again next week Horses finished 1st and 4th ...not bad Edited January 11, 2020 by richard-westwood Alley Cat Glover, Xtc12, Horseoats and 5 others 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 7 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Bit dramatic but a win is a win Think he would have won anyhow but the bit of drama was good. Well done, great start richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 This week's leg 1 has to be the peter marsh chase ....no doubt a couple will drop out but hopefully a fair few will run as many of them have wins on soft .... Currently the computer has narrowed to 3 ... Vintage clouds 230 +2 Prime venture 228 +2 Daklondike 225 +1 Hard to separate them currently so hopefully one will drop out and make it easier or I might alter stakes and cover all 3 if odds allow as these 3 are clear of rest and I can't rule out Daklondike completely for a powerful stable ......I really like vintage clouds ....loves haydock ..last 4 runs here are 3213...and is looking a well hcapped horse ....should run well ....prime venture ran in a very strong looking race behind yala enki....that looks strong form so has the ability for sure ......looking for race 2 now ....plenty of action so hopefully I can find a 2nd leg yossa6133 and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I always back Vintage Clouds. One of my favourite horses. Won’t be backing him over the national fences again though, and is well handicapped. Stayed on very well in its last run after it looked like he was going to finish nowhere again. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: I always back Vintage Clouds. One of my favourite horses. Won’t be backing him over the national fences again though, and is well handicapped. Stayed on very well in its last run after it looked like he was going to finish nowhere again. Well he has seemed exposed for a while but he's dropped to a nice mark now and he loves haydock so I think he's fab ew material for this race ....he's got to run well surely ....I hope lol black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 Well...the weather is atrocious but let's have a go ..... 240 hay Prime venture 4.54 pts win 6/1 b365 Vintage clouds 3.34pts win 17/2 Willh 3.00 asc Espoire de guye 6.35pts win 4/1 bet365 Happy diva 5.77pts win 9/2 b365 Plus 4 x 2.5 pts win doubles Any 1 winner will return a 1.75pt profit overall...2 winners a 100+ profit black rabbit, yossa6133 and BBBC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horseoats Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 20 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Well...the weather is atrocious but let's have a go ..... 240 hay Prime venture 4.54 pts win 6/1 b365 Vintage clouds 3.34pts win 17/2 Willh 3.00 asc Espoire de guye 6.35pts win 4/1 bet365 Happy diva 5.77pts win 9/2 b365 Plus 4 x 2.5 pts win doubles Any 1 winner will return a 1.75pt profit overall...2 winners a 100+ profit Espoire de Guye Non runner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Espoir De Guye was a non runner for me so put it on Vintage Clouds luckily. Ran a blinder and looked like his old self . richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 Non runner probably did us a favour today especially as the ground was so bad I wasn't expecting much but overall finished with a 13.10 pt profit .....so that's as good as I could have wished for .... Vintage clouds loves it at haydock and was looking really well weighted so he did himself justice . Total profit 80.10pts .........total including returned stakes to date ..94.34 pts vikki37, yossa6133, Villa Chris and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Skybet chase Azzerti 234 +2 Good man pat 232 +2 Ravenhill road 229 +3 Weights and runners changed so ratings altered accordingly .....top 2 look the ones I want to be on now although ravenhill could improve past them but that's speculative so I'll stick with top 2 Azzerti 3.5pts win 9/1 willh Good man pat 2.5pts win 12/1 bet365 black rabbit and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 150 chelt Warthog 235 +2 Spiritofthegames 231 +2 I'll play these 2 in open race as they both have that class factor on recent run Warthog 3pts win 11/2 lads Spiritofthegames 3pts win 6/1 sky 4x 2pt win doubles with above race black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 Only 2nd today ...bummer .... 60.10 pts profit...94.34 inc stakes returned overall .... Ryanpete and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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