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The Equaliser

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  1. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Valiant Thor in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
  2. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Wednesday Aug 5th   
    240 ayr 
    Afandem  ....and John Kirkup have decent class ratings going into this tricky race where quite a few,are out of form .....I'd expect them to run well ..
    Afandem 5pts win 13.5 betfair 
    John Kirkup 5pts win 5/1 b365 
  3. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from BillyHills in Racing Chat - Sunday Aug 2nd   
    Haha, I'm new to the site and couldn't see it.  So I just have to keep adding selections to the bet slip and then get the doubles and trebles options.  It is just that I will need this when I desert Sportsbook and hopefully can still get BOG on Bet365 multiples as I won't be able to do so on Sportsbook as I am opting for 2% commission with my bets on Betfair Exchange.
    I knew it was a stupid question but, as you can see, I needed an answer.
    Very many thanks from one who is not so technically minded ?
     
     
  4. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Sunday Aug 2nd   
    I'm using a claimed £5 Accumulator bonus on Sportsbook for my 6 Double and 4 trebles today so a £6 bet is costing me £1
    2.25 Nc Glen Shield 2/1 (£2 win at 3.3 = £4.37)
    2.55 Nc Galatia 4/9
    3.40 Leic Purdys Gift 7/4 (£2 win at 7/4)
    4.10 Leic Musicality 6/5
    6 doubles at 80p = £4.80 = poss return £14.50
    4 trebles at 30p = £1.20 = poss return of £25.91
    A Trixie for £1 = £4 poss return £157.00
    3.25 Nc Derk Jedi £1 win at 6/1
    3.10 Leic Anjah 15/4 (£2 win at 5.2 = £7.98)
    3.40 Leic Purdy's Gift (£2 win at 7/4 = £3.50)
    Other win bets
    2.25 Nc Volatile Ananlyst 50p ew at 22/1
    3.25 Nc Cockalorium £1 win at 9/1
    3.10 Leic Phucket Power 50p win at 14/1
    3.40 Leic The Dancing Poet £2 win at 10/3 = £6.66
    Multiple bets = £10 (using SB £5 bonus)
    Singles = £13.50
    = Total stake today £23.50
    I haven't been able to research Lay bet yet and this will have to wait until later after lunch and liquid refreshment
    Funny thing about using bet credits when one doesn't get the stake money back.  If you back something each way you need a 10/1 winner to get your money back instead of a 5/1 winner!!!!!
    Not a great day.  Musicality came 2nd so I only got back £4.28 for my multiple bet (lucky I used the £5 bonus on sportsbook).  The Trixie completely bombed.  Hence a loss on multiples of £5.72.  The balance C/fwd is £623.84 (£800 Bank).
    The singles took a hit too.  £13.50 laid out and only £4.37 return (BOG would have been better).  Hence a loss on the day of £9.13.  The balance C/Fwd is £327.49 (Bank £400)
    There is a class 2 race at Haydock tomorrow and a couple of class 3's at Windsor tomorrow night.  Other than that I will have to make the numbers up with a few class 4 evnts
     
     
     
     
  5. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to BillyHills in Racing Chat - Sat 1st Aug (Stewards Cup)   
    335 Goodwood
    Stewards Cup

    1pt EW Danzeno 25/1 Boylsports (6 places)
    1pt EW Summerghand 14/1 Betfair (6 places)
    F/C Combo 1,2,4,11
     
    515 Galway - Premier Handicap

    1pt Win Halimi
    1pt EW Emperor Of The Sun
     
     
     
  6. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Latest Table - July 2020   
    Thanks and very much seconded.  Wonderful Comp and fun for all
  7. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Valiant Thor in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    betfair > exchange > my account > my betfair account > promotions and rewards > my betfair rewards(beta) > choose basic plan


  8. Thanks
    The Equaliser got a reaction from BillyHills in Latest Table - July 2020   
    Thanks and very much seconded.  Wonderful Comp and fun for all
  9. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    I have taken my data from the Race Advisor website. A lot of data on there, you have to sort the wheat from the chaff. It's quite expensive, I took advantage of a discount rate and I'll see if I can use it to make a profit before deciding whether to continue to subscribe.
  10. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to roger2256 in Latest Table - July 2020   
    Well done Rainbow and all the other winners . Just shows you cant sit on your laurels,  not only painfull but many are just a bet away from  snatching the title from you lol . 
    Big thank you to BH , as usual an excellent job putting it all together,  the addition of a 'most winners ' prize , brilliant , its noticeably  changed how some bet . Tension all round right to the end . Its appreciated thank you. 
  11. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Rainbow in Latest Table - July 2020   
    Woohoo! My 5th title (first since Jan 2018 - how embarrassing lol).  Thanks Graham and all the team, as it's very much appreciated.  
  12. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Friday 31st July (Goodwood Day 4)   
    Congrats to Battaash for winning in great style and breaking the course record but I'm a bit miffed that Ornate couldn't get second.  Denied by a neck ?
  13. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to MCLARKE in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    You are right, if laying you would make a small profit in fields of less than 8 runners, albeit not enough to cover the 2% commission.
    Other areas to consider are heavy going (9% profit), debut runners (3% profit) and 7lb claimers (10% profit).
  14. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Trotter in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    Good luck
    For quite a long time my basic method was to look at small field races and try to find false favourites, Small field races are particularly good ground for this as I reckon favourites are overbet in small fields because people think 'they've only got 4 or 5 to beat'
    So I'd be looking for favourites at tracks that might not suit, maybe up in class, not sure to get the trip or generally horses who had an easy win last time in different conditions........ alternatively horses who were noted as being 'all out' when winning last time
    Another advantage of looking at small fields is that you can do half a dozen races in the time it takes to do one big Saturday handicap
    Of course at the moment there's not many small field races at most meetings but maybe something to bear in mind when racing gets back to normal
  15. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Villa Chris in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    You’ll get a lot of horses that have won on most goings. Some that prefer it soft may have won a few time’s on Good. I just think having a horse that’s won more than once on a certain going indicates that it can run well on that going. As for the class I’d award a horse a point if it’s won in that class or above before.  I’m just tinkering about with stuff , but using the fine form points model. Only did some low stakes today. I’ll do same tomorrow. 
     
    Yeah off to the seaside for a few days to blow the lockdown cobwebs away. 
  16. Thanks
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Villa Chris in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    Well good luck with it. 
    It seems a bit harsh not to give any points if a horse at least won once on the Going.  Some experts say that the going or extreme changes in it can seriously affect a horse's chances.  Some trainers frequently pull horses out of a race because of changes in the going.
    With courses, it may be good to allow for horses that have won on different types of surfaces e.g. Turf, All Weather (and these tracks vary also).
    Over the jumps it may pay to differentiate between hurdles, chase and/or NHF races.
    With regard to class, I'm not sure what you mean by one point.  Is this awarded because a horse is running in the same class or has dropped a grade.  It occurs to me that there should be no points for a horse in the same class, one for a drop in grade and, perhaps minus one for a horse being upped in grade.
    I do wish you all the best with this whatever you do but I would urge you to keep stakes low until you feel confident about the system working profitably.  There is of course some quite big changes to racing coming up with the main flat season not lasting for too long now and of course we have the nursery races that seem to have loads of runners.  Also there is a change over to the jumps season occurring quite soon.
    In any event enjoy your 5 days off, I'm sure that you have worked hard for it ☺️
     
  17. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Tedthewolf in Racing Chat - Wednesday July 29th   
    4.20 Goodwood-BATTERED 14/1 1/5  1-5 is a stong e/w selectiom from me. CD  winner off a good mark today dropped back in trip after poor run lto  will suit,  trainer in good form, good jockey on top this horse tips a lot of boxes today and is a nice e/w price   i expect  really big run from battered in this C3 handicap.
  18. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Trotter in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    thanks ....... interesting read !
  19. Haha
    The Equaliser got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Monday July 27th   
    7.30 Win C'est No Mour one point win at 12/1 with Bet365 (PL tip so looks like I'm desperate again @BillyHills )
  20. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from BillyHills in Naps - Sunday July 26th   
    Haha, it was also the selection of Spotlight in the Racing Post.  It had a good write up and Sylvestre De Sousa was on board. The only problem appeared to be that the race should have been run over 5 furlongs instead of 7 ☺️
  21. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to LeMale in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    This really isn't the right place to congratulate @BillyHills on his Fantasy Premier League victory, but i can't seem to find the post (or thready thingy) to say congrats. I have to say i really enjoyed it, it being my first time ever doing anything like it. But what a finish...having led for almost all the comp, to lose the lead with weeks to go and then snatch it back on the final day to win by a point!!! Not sure how many racing punters were in it but i was having my own tussle with @PercyP (not that he knew) so well done to him as well getting a top 5 finish. 
    Anyway Well Done Graham on your victory ? 
  22. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to BillyHills in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    I think C/D winners are useful at quirky tracks
    Chester
    Goodwood
    Brighton
    Catterick
    Cartmel
    Ripon
    Fakenham
    possibly Musselburgh
    Not sure how much they are worth elsewhere, handy but not that significant.
  23. Like
    The Equaliser got a reaction from Trotter in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    I think you have it spot on trotter to post selections on the racing thread.  It seems to me that this Fineform method is just a POINTS based system as opposed to a horse rating method as I have come to know it among the all too many ratings systems that seem to be plastered everywhere.  You are obviously tweaking it to allow for class of race etc. which is entirely sensible.  I am just wondering if you may add to your armoury taking into account the the top 3 Timeform selections as displayed on the ATR website, or at least excluding horses that do not have at least a 3 star rating when one clicks on the "racecard"  Timeform tab.  It seems to me that this may combine the points system with PROPER race ratings.  Just a thought.
     
  24. Thanks
    The Equaliser reacted to Valiant Thor in Racing Chat - Sunday July 26th   
    Not trying to pee on your parade guys but
    Points are awarded for each of the runners' previous TWO OUTINGS OF THE CURRENT SEASON ONLY:- 1st 5 points , 2nd 3 points, 3rd 2 points, 4th 1 point , D (disqualified from 1st place) 5 points, Course & Distance (C&D) C&D 3 points , C.D 3 points , D 2 points, C 1 point .
    13pts...None
    12pts...Asc 3.40  Isabella Giles @ 8/1 B365
    11pts..1.55 Mountain Peak @ 9/2 ... 4th & Curr 2.55 Buckhurst @ 8/1 B365
    The original system was to back the top rated horse for 1 bet a day or split stakes and back all top rated if more than 1
    so todays bet would be Isabelle Giles in the 3.40 at Ascot
  25. Like
    The Equaliser reacted to Trotter in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    I've posted up some selections on today's racing thread based on the Fineform system with some tweaks to include Class and Going .
    A few top rated ones got eliminated for class or going and I stuck to handicaps so that limited the number of selections
    Let's see how they get on
    ps ....... I don't think we want to start posting selections on this thread otherwise it'll just end up duplicating the daily threads
     
    One problem I did find was that my 'class criteria' seemed a bit too strict as there was at least one top rated horse which had won impressively in a grade lower but looked to be on the upgrade. I basically used 'had to won in this class or placed in a higher class'
    I'd like to amend this to take account of horses that have won in the grade below but are lightly raced (maybe 10 or fewer career runs)
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