Racing Chat - Wednesday Aug 5th

[BillyHills]

Shocking that a novice hurdle at Sligo is the richest race of the day (£7,700)

A couple at value prices I like on Wednesday

 

405 Lin: Shine That Light 5/1 bet365

340 Ayr: Great Colaci 11/2 bet365

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

early racing today guyon and peslier got some good priced rides

Le teste de buch

10.55 baileys balle 13/2 Lost

11.25 eilean dubh 7/1 Lost

11.55 gregolimo 9/1 Lost

12.25 lifeline 8/1 lost

1.07 petit princes 25/1 lost

 

1.42 fa diese

2.17 roselane 9/1

2.52 grey magic 12/1

all bets 25p e/w bet365

Edited August 5, 2020 by LEE-GRAYS

[Zilzalian]

The Fahey gg International angel is over priced at the moment 12/1 bet365

[Bruno]

Lucky 63
2:50 New Ab Parody 3/1
3:40 Ayr Sienna Dream 4/1
4:35 Ling Garth Rockett 5/1
5:40 Ayr Lizzie Loch 5/1
6:35 Ling Derry Boy
7:05 Ling Quemonda 11/4

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.15 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Noble Behest @ 7/1 Bet365

Favourite is obviously the one to beat but Noble Behest has an excellent chance of making the frame here so looks an each-way bet to nothing here. Disappointed on his only hurdling start to date at Doncaster but 2 miles would be sharp enough for him on his debut in this sphere as he stays 2 miles on the flat, so this step up in trip can only suit. Is rated 80 on the level so is no mug and shaped okay on his first run for a few months last time in a good race. That suggests he's well enough within himself and in a poor race, I'd be disappointed if he wasn't in the first three and hopefully we can have a good crack at the favourite.

1.45 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Talking About You @ 18/1 Bet365

Similar story in this race really as there are currently 8 runners and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one run a nice race on hurdling debut. Not sure about the Hiconic form and wouldn't be with that one up in the weights again so I give a chance to Sean Curran's runner who is unexposed on the flat and whilst modest, went close over 1m2f last time out (pulled clear with the winner). His pedigree gives him a good chance of making a hurdler being by Sixties Icon and out of a Mastercraftsman dam and is race fit. Hiconic itself is only rated 57 on the level so it's far from inconceivable that Talking About You could make a half-decent hurdler and at the prices will have a go e/w.

2.20 Newton Abbot - 2pts win Mrs Miggins @ 5/1 Bet365

Weak race and I think David Pipe's runner can return from an absence and wind surgery to make a successful chasing debut. Has a lot of weight on her back but is the best runner in here and has twice run well (including winning) after two previous wind surgeries. Nothing wrong with much of her form last year over hurdles and conditions will suit on her chasing debut. Is by Presenting and out of a winning pointer so don't see any reason why she won't handle fences and I think she's the best mare in the race.

2.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w Majalaat @ 22/1 Bet365

Has taken some time to come to the boil but his third start in maidens at Leicester over 6f reads very well - keeping on well and not beaten far by horses now rated 86 and 87. On that form alone, running off 74 today under similar conditions looks attractive and you can forgive his effort over 7 1/2f last time when racing too freely, yet not disgraced. Is bred to get further and I'm sure he will in time but the return to 6f will help him settle and the likely decent gallop will really suit too. Looks overpriced to me.

2.50 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Percy Street @ 14/1 Bet365

Was comfortably behind the favourite on their run here last time but that didn't tell the whole story and it wouldn't surprise me if they were much closer here. Percy Street travelled better than anything in the race but was hampered after 3 out and was stuck behind horses when the favourite kicked on to win its race. This horse did stay on up the straight but couldn't get near the winner - has plenty of stamina at this trip and remains off a fair mark with Tom Scudamore taking over in the saddle. I'm hoping they'll go harder today or Tom gives him a more positive ride so he doesn't get caught out when they sprint for home and represents each way value to me.

3.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w Chinese Spirit @ 20/1 Bet365

This price looks massive to me with conditions to suit, dropped in class and shaped okay last time out for all has been off the boil a bit for a while. That's allowed a significant drop in the handicap, however, and has taken a couple of runs to get going in previous seasons too. Loves it around Ayr, handles soft ground and will enjoy a test at this trip so I think is well worth chancing at such a big price. 

[The Equaliser]

Once more into the breach....

One Trixie today and some singles:

2.50 NAb Double Clever 7/4
3.20 NAb Pagero 15/8
6.50 NAb Soldier Of Love 10/11

One £1.50 Trixie = £6 v £26.59 (using bet credits)

Singles:

1.45 NAb Hiconic £1 win 4/7
1.45 NAb Balko saint £1 win at 6/1

2.50 NAb Parody £1 win at 10/3
2.50 NAb Bootlegger 50p win at 13/2
2.50 NAb Percy Street 50p win at 14/1

3.20 NAb Hallings Comet £1 win at 6/1
3.20 NAb Magical Thomas £1 win at 15/2

3.50 NAb For Good Measure £1 win at 7/2
3.50 NAb Bally Longford 50p win at 13/2
3.50 NAb Marble Moon 50p win  15/2

2.40Ayr Zim Baby £1 win at 7/2
2.40 Ayr Affendum 50p win at 9/1
2.40 Ayr Dick Datchery 50p win at 6/1

Total Multiples = £6

Total Singles = £10

Total stakes = £16

Back later with Lay Bets

After a few days of my favourites letting me down in my multiples it was refreshing to see them all win today.  The return on my trixie was much better than expected.  It returned £50.54 less £6 outlay = £44.54 profit.  My Balance C/Fwd is now £658.28 (£800 Bank)

This meant of course that my win bets suffered.  Actually Hallings Comet only got beat by a short head (thankfully).  I had a 73p return on Hiconic (trying to mitigate Baltic Saint's £1.  Anyway loss on the day = £9.27.  Balance C/fwd is now £300.22 (£400 Bank)

1 class 2, three class 3's and about 4 class 4 races tomorrow so quality racing is a bit thin on the ground.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[richard-westwood]

240 ayr 

Afandem  ....and John Kirkup have decent class ratings going into this tricky race where quite a few,are out of form .....I'd expect them to run well ..

Afandem 5pts win 13.5 betfair 

John Kirkup 5pts win 5/1 b365 

[richard-westwood]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

240 ayr 

Afandem  ....and John Kirkup have decent class ratings going into this tricky race where quite a few,are out of form .....I'd expect them to run well ..

Afandem 5pts win 13.5 betfair 

John Kirkup 5pts win 5/1 b365 

John Kirkup does the business ...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

5 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.15 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Noble Behest @ 7/1 Bet365

Favourite is obviously the one to beat but Noble Behest has an excellent chance of making the frame here so looks an each-way bet to nothing here. Disappointed on his only hurdling start to date at Doncaster but 2 miles would be sharp enough for him on his debut in this sphere as he stays 2 miles on the flat, so this step up in trip can only suit. Is rated 80 on the level so is no mug and shaped okay on his first run for a few months last time in a good race. That suggests he's well enough within himself and in a poor race, I'd be disappointed if he wasn't in the first three and hopefully we can have a good crack at the favourite.

1.45 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Talking About You @ 18/1 Bet365

Similar story in this race really as there are currently 8 runners and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one run a nice race on hurdling debut. Not sure about the Hiconic form and wouldn't be with that one up in the weights again so I give a chance to Sean Curran's runner who is unexposed on the flat and whilst modest, went close over 1m2f last time out (pulled clear with the winner). His pedigree gives him a good chance of making a hurdler being by Sixties Icon and out of a Mastercraftsman dam and is race fit. Hiconic itself is only rated 57 on the level so it's far from inconceivable that Talking About You could make a half-decent hurdler and at the prices will have a go e/w.

2.20 Newton Abbot - 2pts win Mrs Miggins @ 5/1 Bet365

Weak race and I think David Pipe's runner can return from an absence and wind surgery to make a successful chasing debut. Has a lot of weight on her back but is the best runner in here and has twice run well (including winning) after two previous wind surgeries. Nothing wrong with much of her form last year over hurdles and conditions will suit on her chasing debut. Is by Presenting and out of a winning pointer so don't see any reason why she won't handle fences and I think she's the best mare in the race.

2.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w Majalaat @ 22/1 Bet365

Has taken some time to come to the boil but his third start in maidens at Leicester over 6f reads very well - keeping on well and not beaten far by horses now rated 86 and 87. On that form alone, running off 74 today under similar conditions looks attractive and you can forgive his effort over 7 1/2f last time when racing too freely, yet not disgraced. Is bred to get further and I'm sure he will in time but the return to 6f will help him settle and the likely decent gallop will really suit too. Looks overpriced to me.

2.50 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Percy Street @ 14/1 Bet365

Was comfortably behind the favourite on their run here last time but that didn't tell the whole story and it wouldn't surprise me if they were much closer here. Percy Street travelled better than anything in the race but was hampered after 3 out and was stuck behind horses when the favourite kicked on to win its race. This horse did stay on up the straight but couldn't get near the winner - has plenty of stamina at this trip and remains off a fair mark with Tom Scudamore taking over in the saddle. I'm hoping they'll go harder today or Tom gives him a more positive ride so he doesn't get caught out when they sprint for home and represents each way value to me.

3.40 Ayr - 1pt e/w Chinese Spirit @ 20/1 Bet365

This price looks massive to me with conditions to suit, dropped in class and shaped okay last time out for all has been off the boil a bit for a while. That's allowed a significant drop in the handicap, however, and has taken a couple of runs to get going in previous seasons too. Loves it around Ayr, handles soft ground and will enjoy a test at this trip so I think is well worth chancing at such a big price. 

Very frustrating afternoon - Noble Behest 2nd having touched 4/6 in the run, Talking About You 3rd but there was a non-runner taking it down to 2 places, Mrs Muggins falling when holding every chance and Percy Street 2nd having touched 2/5 in the run. 

5.35 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Disarming @ 16/1 Bet365

I don't like a lot of these at the head of the market so taking a chance with Disarming who whilst in and out has shown good form under similar conditions at Kempton when narrowly denied twice in handicaps and although less good last time out, wasn't disgraced and it paid to be prominent that day. Has had a break since, the yard has had a recent winner so at the price I think is worth chancing. 

5.50 Sligo - 2pts e/w Crobally Boy @ 6/1 Bet365

Looks the each-way bet of the night to me as I can't see the second favourite (5/2) staying 3 miles particularly well and the favourite itself has to prove itself at the trip. Crobally Boy is stoutly bred and has run two good races in bumpers up to 2m4f. Has front run there too so I can see him racing off prominently and so long as jumping okay, should be capable of holding most, if not all of these at bay.

6.35 Lingfield - 1pts win Ravens Ark @ 9/2 Bet365

Has run in three competitive novice races packed full of representatives from powerful stables and would expect better now handicapping off a lowly mark. Shaped okay on two runs on the all-weather so not envisaging any problems with the surface and showed enough promise to suggest there's more to come now entering a more realistic level.

7.05 Lingfield - 1pt win Pax Britannica @ 7/1 Bet365

Has shown some glimmers of promise in his career to date and shaped okay in a handicap last time, keeping on over a mile. Has been dropped 3lbs since and now gets an extra couple of furlongs which appears to be no bad thing on pedigree and could unlock more this evening at a decent price.