The Equaliser

Results

FAKENHAM 12.55
ZEE MAN 9/4
BET365

ps ....... Hardie Fashion is just carrying the allotted weight in each race as per the Race Conditions ..... no jockey allowances apply

Well ....... relative weights are only of importance in handicaps
This isn't a handicap and neither was his first run...... so the weights are determined by the Race Conditions
If you're using the Racing Post you can choose to have the Race Conditions shown on the card which might be useful to read
Also if you're using the Post note this ....... 
On the race card it shows the allotted weight before any riders allowances are taken off ....... so it shows 11.5 but with the riders allowance he will actually carry 10-9 today
On the horses form page the weight it shows is the weight after the riders allowance is taken off ........ so for his last run it shows 10-4 so his allotted weight would have been 11.0

Well, not a great deal on offer today in the non handicaps
I was fascinated to see in the 3.25 at Fakenham that Tiny Tantrum has over a stone more in weight than on its last run.  The 10lbs claimer allowance doesn't count as it is the same rider who rode it last time.  On the other hand Harde Fashion is only carrying 4lbs more than on its last effort.  I don't understand this discrepancy in the weights.  Perhaps @Trotter can come to my aid.  Anyway I'm not playing as there are a few others with what looks to be good chances.
I have had a bet in the 3.50 at Wolvs with £3.50 on Kyllukey at 7/2 with Richard Kingscote aboard.  It has drifted from 5/2 overnight but I think that it should beat Dubai Paradise and I don't see that Captain Ryan is as good as it was last year.
In the 6.20 at Wolves I have had £6 at 3.47 on Shimmering Dawn which seems a good price.  Again this is a drifter as the media and the market have plumped for Amniarix.  Good luck to that one if it wins but I'll stick with the horse that should win at the weights.
Finally I have gone for Big Kitty in the 6.50 at Wolves with Ben Curtis aboard £4 win at 11/4 last night .  The market has gone for Hollie Doyle's horse Angel Mill which I believe is too short
Hence, I have chosen drifters today, however, you never know the market can always change in the run up to post time.
Total outlay to day is £13.50
Good luck to all sailing in the races today
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A complete washout for me today.  I had another £2 on Big Kitty So my loss for the day was £15.50.  My only regret was that I didn't have a cover win bet on Amniarix (RichardKingscote in flying form with three winners).  I will do the cover bet in future when I think that I am betting on a two horse race.  I had no qualms about not doing so on Hollie Doyle's horse Angel Mill as I simply did not fancy it despite all the market hype. My balance has now been reduced to £533.88 (£500 Bank)
Many thanks to @Trotterfor pointing out the actual weight to be carried by Tiny Tantrum earlier, plus also to look at the race conditions regarding weights and penalties. I will look out for jockeys with allowances that have to be deducted from the advertised weight on race cards in future in my non-handicap races.
Only two meetings tomorrow in the UK.  Two class 5 races and three Class 6 races.  No future stars on show for my non handicap races tomorrow I fear.
 
 
 
 
 

450 Wolverhampton inevitable outcome 6-4 most
550 Wolverhampton athmad 9-2 most
 
 

todays top rated selections

LINGFIELD 12:40 Mutahamisa 7/4 win

LINGFIELD 13:10 Royal Birth 7/4 win

FAKENHAM 13:25 Paricolor 13/2 e/w 2 Places

FAKENHAM 14:25 Perfect Moment 15/2 e/w 4 Places

To be honest I do back most horses moore as at plumpton and twenty twenty is a horse I have done a few times 

need the placed horses to start winning

Well, at least Revolutionary Man got me my money back.  Didn't know about 8yo never having won at the CD.  Michele Strogoff finished 8th at 5/2 favourite beaten 7.25 lengths!

Looked at 9 non-handicap races today.  Lots of odds on shots, some not worthy imo
Had  small interest in Tonyx 12.27 Catt £2 win at 6.4 - £10.58 profit if it wins.  Gets almost a stone in weight from Bareback Jack who should be very hard to beat.  Tonyx was a smart runner on the flat so a small wager looks to be reasonable
Having looked at the rest of the races, I feel, on balance that Diomedes Des Mottes is the best bet of the day in the 1.30 Catt.  It is trading at around 6/4 atm.  Only 3 runners.  There are some doubts about the stamina of Thomas Macdonag and whilst improvement may come from Eva's Oskar I will stick with the Skelton horse for my money.  I have just secured £7 at 2.64 on Betfair betting exchange = £11.25 profit if it wins so almost a £1 better off over the 6/4 price.
Good luck to all the die-hards having a bet today
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The above didn't work out so trying my luck in the classifieds at Southwell
3.15 Zahirah £2 win at 6.2 = poss return of £10.19
3.15 Pearl Spectre  £1.30 win at 17/2 poss return £12.35
3.45 Drew Breeze £2 win at 6.2 u/m (5.9) poss return of £10.19
Total stakes today £14.30
 
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A bit of a disappointing day with my Nap selection pulling up.  The explanation given for the horse's poor performance was abysmal (all he/she said was that the gelding weakened quickly going out on to the final circuit).  At least drew Breeze got matched at 6.4 and won so a small loss of £2.11 on the day.  the balance is now £549.38 (£500 bank) so all is OK.
Seven races to look at tomorrow so hopefully I will find a decent opportunity to have a bet
 
   

Jan -6
1pt level stakes win only 
12.57 Cat Taboo 40/1 Lost
14.25 Plu Dawson City 12/1 Lost
14.35 Cat Do Wanna Know 20/1NR
14.35 Cat Palixande 25/1 Lost 
15.28 Plu Definite Winner 8/1 Lost
Prices as of now b365 
-4 
Jan -10 

All prices Bet365:
Done a treble on these:
12.18 Plumpton - Iron Mike @ 13/8
1.05 Southwell - Turquoise Kingdom @ 4/6
3.07 Catterick - Sigurd @ 6/4
And each-way bets on these:
12.27 Catterick - 1pt e/w Kildimo @ 22/1
12.57 Catterick - 1pt e/w Thirsty Farmer @ 11/1
1.53 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Norley @ 10/1
2.25 Plumpton - 1pt e/w Sackett @ 33/1
2.35 Catterick - 1pt e/w Do Wanna Know @ 20/1

210 southwell fantasy keeper 10-1 bet365
245 southwell phantasmal 7-1 bet365
315 southwell atrafan 4-1 any offering early bog.
Will also be putting doubles and trebles on and taking above prices today.

5:40 Wolves think you have called that dead right even if it was to win which i doubt it will i make it an outsider to be honest 8yo never won CD? Word of honour for me as a little tickle nothing serious. Highest mountain for R/FC.

Well done for your first month in doing the Naps Comp.  Will this coming Saturday be the start of the KO cup this month?

2:40- Ayr - Portstorm
3:15- Ayr - Manetti
3:45- Aur - Jessiemac
Reserves
12:20 Ayr - Without Conviction 

12.35 Lin Wake Up Harry £5.30 win at 9/4  = £17.22 (now trading at 5/2).  Loads of money for Abrag 2/1 last night and now the best price is 6/4 so has strong market confidence.
2.25 San Galice Macalo £4.20 at 11/4 = £15.75 (now the best price is 3/1).  I have had £3.10 on Metier at 11/8 = £7.36 as an insurance bet (Matt Chapman all over this one this morning)
5.40 Wolv Pour La Victoire £2 win at 13/2 and £1 win at 11/1 being a drifter now.  Had £1 win on Revolutionary Man at 9/2 as a saver.  The market is very strong for Michele Strogof but its form does not back it up so I'll treat it as a false favourite.
6.40 Wolv Lochnaver £3.30win at 4.4 = £11.00.  Napper Tandy very strong in the market.  Was evens last night and is now at a best price of 5/6.
I realise that I have not selected the favourite in any of the above races but genuinely believe I have chosen the best horses to win.
Good luck to all today
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The main winner I had was Wake Up Harry at 9/4.  I also had two saver bet winners which helped my cash flow and profit.  I laid our £19.90 and got back £30.09 so a profit of £10.19 on the day The balance c/fwd is now £551.49 (Bank £500) Just scraping in a 10% ROI which is a good start to the year (for me anyway)
Looks like there could be a few non handicap races for me to look at tomorrow
 
 

All prices Bet365:
12.55 Ayr - 2pts win Ardera Cross @ 9/2
1.15 Sandown - 1pt e/w Doitforthevillage @ 14/1
1.50 Sandown - 1pt e/w Born Survivor @ 14/1
2.25 Sandown - 1pt e/w Tile Tapper @ 33/1
3.00 Sandown - 1pt e/w Valtor @ 17/2
3.35 Sandown - 1pt e/w Totterdown @ 9/1

1130 Lingfield pink jazz 10.5 Betfair exchange
110 Lingfield accomplice 13-2 paddy power
145 Lingfield three C's 10.0 Betfair exchange
440 Wolverhampton red allure 7.4 Betfair exchange and saver on passional 6-5 Paddy power
710 Wolverhampton obtuse paddy power 2-1
Done trebles fourfolds and fivefolds on above myself and wins with Betfair sp. Prices above are best at time.

Right ....diff tact this year ....devoting myself to chasing the big win so I'll take 2 races each weekend if possible  and any winnings I'll split on 2 single horses in 2 separate races the following weekend ......only 1 race I can find today .....but I'm gonna stick with this now this year and chase a 4 figure win at least 
330 ling 
Super julius 334
Shamson 332 
10pt win super julius 4/1 will h
Shamson 10pt win 8.6 betfair 

todays top rated selections

AYR 12:55 Reivers Lad 13/8 win

AYR 14:05 Flowery 9/2 win

AYR 15:15 Takingrisks 2/1

another that scored but discounted by age

AYR 2:40 Donnas Diamond 20/1 small e/w bet Top  

Most noble of you to stand down to let someone else have a go

The following players have qualified for the KO cup this month.
@SimonE did not post enough selections to qualify and I will stand down to allow somebody else a chance.
Starts tomorrow, Saturday 2nd January.
Good luck !

Hope everybody has a good 2021.