The Equaliser
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Posts posted by The Equaliser
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3 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
No need to keep count mate, we have a table each day with all of the totals
Ok, many thanks. How do i find it?, also I had trouble finding the new day's posting area this morning, can you help?
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@MCLARKE Well OK. This issue keeps coming up so I will keep a log of your ew single bets and what I will do with mine is to divide the daily number of selections into the total stakes of £20 on the daily challenge and keep a record of the monthly P&L of winners to losers so as to compare the ROI on singles and also on doubles and trebles
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5.10 Hex (4) Rinigaringarosie 3.75 Bet365
Cum Sep points = +5
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Doubles:
(1) 5.10 Hex (4) Ringaringarosie 11/4, 5.40 Hex (1) Melody Of Scotland 7/2 = £4 v £67.48
(2) 6.0 Win ( 10) Look surprised 11/2, 7.10 Hex (3) Classical Milano 4/1 = £4 v £130.00
(3) 5.10 Hex (4) Ringaringarosie 11/4, 7.10 Hex (3) Classical Milano 4/1 =£4 v £75.00
(4) 6.0 Win (1) Harry Hurricane 11/4, 5.40 Hex (1) Melody of Scotland 7/2 = £4 v £90.00
Treble:
(1) 5.10 Hex Ringaringarosie, 5.40 Hex Melody of Scotland and 7.10 Classical Milano = £2 v £168.74
Total stakes = £20.00
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Three Doubles and one Treble today
Not many qualifying races today and a couple of them do look very tricky.
Doubles:
(1) 5.10 Hex (4) Ringaringarosie 11/4, 5.40 Hex (1) Melody Of Scotland 7/2 = £4 v £67.48
(2) 6.0 Win ( 10) Look surprised 11/2, 7.10 Hex (3) Classical Milano 4/1 = £4 v £130.00
(3) 5.10 Hex (4) Ringaringarosie 11/4, 7.10 Hex (3) Classical Milano 4/1 =£4 v £75.00
Treble:
(1) 5.10 Hex Ringaringarosie, 5.40 Hex Melody of Scotland and 7.10 Classical Milano = £2 v £168.74
Total stakes = £16.00
Results Update:
Fresh start for my doubles and trebles strategy so no adjustment necessary to my opening bank balance
Original Bank £1,200.00
C/Fwd ROI N/A
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@MCLARKE I can't agree that a bad fictional story is conclusive proof that singles are better than doubles. You post up your singles bets on the daily £20 challenge whilst I will post up my doubles and trebles; let's see who comes out on top at the end of the month. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. I sincerely wish you the very best of luck
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@BillyHills What you mean like Lunar Magic? Just kidding
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I think I started September well with a £40 win
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I don't like single bets but having a go at this anyway. The problem with singles bets, in my opinion, is that one has to find a number of winners at decent enough odds to pay for the losers. I will not be puting my own money on these, I am just seeing how it will go by selecting what I believe will be the horse with the best chance of winning from all my daily selections.
3.40 Worc (1) Hot Ryan 5/1 1 point win Bet365 and many other bookies
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No doubles or trebles today
With only two meetings today I coud only find two qualifying races. I can’t say that Midnight Gem in 2.10 at Worc fully inspires confidence. I will put up Hot Ryan in the 3.40 at Worc in the naps competition as I believe that the market has just gone for the Harry Skelton horse without any proper justification
Results Update:
Fresh start for my doubles and trebles strategy so no adjustment necessary to my opening bank balance
Original Bank £1,200.00
C/Fwd ROI N/A
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Results Update and moving forward from September 2019
No winners today hence a loss of £20.
Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July Trixies add £182.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,401.57
What all this in effect means is that I started on 26th May 19 with a bank of £500 and it increased it from July 1st to £2,500.
The original bets were £1 selections that were £4.00 Trixies. These made £38.61
I increased the betting bank to £2,500 on 1st July 19 (£2538.61 including May/June profits) and went on to make £5 selections that were £20 Trixies for the rest of the month. The result in July was a £320 loss.
In August I changed tack and switched to backing up to eight selections in doubles and trebles, £4 doubles and £2 trebles. These made a profit of £182.96 for the month.
The net effect of all this is +£38.61 - £320.00 + £182.96 = Minus £98.43.
MOVING FORWARD FROM SEPTEMBER 1ST 2019
I didn’t do too bad in August and was perhaps a little unlucky not to have wiped out the July Trixie losses.
This is encouraging me to continue with doubles and trebles from September. I realise that we have the big field nurseries coming up, the end of the flat and the start of the jumps season, however, I think that I need the continuity of using my strategy so as to cope with the season’s changes.
I do feel that the betting bank has been set too high and so I am reducing it to a 60-day continuous loss of stakes which is £1,200.00. I was going to choose £1,000 which sits snuggly at 2% risk per day but two months cover appeals to me more.
This being so I am wiping the slate clean and ignoring any brought forward figures. For any of you who think that I am conveniently forgetting my accumulated loss of £98.43, I am the one who has lost it and won’t be happy until I retrieve it in full. However, for the benefit of all concerned, I feel it is just best to start afresh and move on.
The rules are still the same. I try to find well-fancied horse racing selections in races every day under all codes in up to class 5 races (not above). My aim is to find strongly fancied selections of prices up to 3/1 Plus in what is commonly known as trappy or difficult races. I should mention that I purposely exclude races with short priced favourites and don’t try to take them on either. The idea is to find horses at the front end of the market that should have a good chance of winning their race.
I have come to learn that is folly to expect any of these beasts to run up to expectations, hence I figure that if increase my number of selections then just maybe a few of them will do what they are actually supposed to do
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46 minutes ago, BillyHills said:
See if you can beat my record = £8,002
Wow that is impressive 
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Doubles:
(A) 2.25 San (8) Country 2/1 (yuk), 4.10 San (1) Modhim 11/4 =£4 v £45.00
(B) 3.05 N.Ab (6) Majestic Touch 11/4, 5.25 N.Ab (10) Floral Queen 11/4 = £4 V £56.24
(C) 2.05 Bev (4) Desert Icon 3/1, 4.40 Wolv (1) Wise Words 11/4 = £4 v £60.00
(D) 3.55 Ches(3) Growl 7/2, 4.10 San (3) Forbidden Land 5/1) = £4 v £108.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.25 San Country, 3.05 N.Ab Majestic Touch and 5.25 N.AB Floral Queen = £2 v £97.50
(2) 2.05 Bev Desert Icon, 3.55 Ches Growl and 4.40 Wolv Wise Words = £2 v £135.00
Total = £20 stakes
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Four doubles and two trebles today.
Last day of the month so I can’t lose in August but obviously getting passed the July Trixie loss is a challenge.
I like Oh This Is Us 2.10 Chs & Tis Marvelous 3.15 Beverley but have excluded them because I feel that their prices are too short
Doubles:
(A) 2.25 San (8) Country 2/1 (yuk), 4.10 San (1) Modhim 11/4 =£4 v £45.00
(B) 3.05 N.Ab (6) Majestic Touch 11/4, 5.25 N.Ab (10) Floral Queen 11/4 = £4 V £56.24
(C) 2.05 Bev (4) Desert Icon 3/1, 4.40 Wolv (1) Wise Words 11/4 = £4 v £60.00
(D) 3.55 Ches(3) Growl 7/2, 4.10 San (3) Forbidden Land 5/1) = £4 v £108.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.25 San Country, 3.05 N.Ab Majestic Touch and 5.25 N.AB Floral Queen = £2 v £97.50
(2) 2.05 Bev Desert Icon, 3.55 Ches Growl and 4.40 Wolv Wise Words = £2 v £135.00
Total = £20 stakes
Results Update:
Two winners yesterday but not coupled so no profit made
Loss =£20
Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July Trixies add £202.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,421.57
C/Fwd ROI N/A
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Hi Billy; I will enter the naps competition from Sep 1, however, I will not be placing any money on the singles bets. The goal for me is to see if I can maximise surplus points to compare with the so-called professional services.
I like the £20 challenge so I want to stick with it. However, I have changed my goal in this regard to being the person with the biggest return for a £20 stake.
Hope that this is all OK
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@LeMale Misunderstood what you said but I do hope you keep posting; I'm sure it is not jinxed
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Doubles:
(A) 2.30 Thsk ( (7) Maid In Manhatten 2/1, 4.45 Thsk ( (5) Purgatory 11/4 £4 v £45.00
(B) 7.25 Ham ((10) Deinonychus 7/2, 8.15 NC (8) Smugglers Creek 13/2 = £4 V £135.00
(C) 4.15 Thsk( 9) Saluti 13/25, 5.15 Thsk (2) My Ukelele 11/4 = £4 v £112.48
(D) 3.30 bang( 5) Zolfo 13/2, 6.55 Ham (10) Paths of Glory 6/1 = £4 v £210.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.30 Thsk Maid In Manhhaten, 4.45 Thsk Purgatory and 8.15 NC Smugglers Creek = £2 v £168.74
(2) 4.15 Thsk Saluti, 5.15 Thsk My Ukelele and 7.25 Ham Deinonychus = £2 v £253.12
Total = £20 stakes
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@LeMale Sorry if I mixed you up with Mclark. Many thanks for your advice with BOG but I will continue with pre-advised prices so as to avoid controversy.
As you say you do better when you post up so I hope that you will continue to do so
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Four doubles and two trebles today.
I liked Fast and Free in the 3.05 at Thirsk but 11/8 is not my cup of tea so I had to reschedule my bets.
Doubles:
(A) 2.30 Thsk ( (7) Maid In Manhatten 2/1, 4.45 Thsk ( (5) Purgatory 11/4 £4 v £45.00
(B) 7.25 Ham ((10) Deinonychus 7/2, 8.15 NC (8) Smugglers Creek 13/2 = £4 V £135.00
(C) 4.15 Thsk( 9) Saluti 13/25, 5.15 Thsk (2) My Ukelele 11/4 = £4 v £112.48
(D) 3.30 bang( 5) Zolfo 13/2, 6.55 Ham (10) Paths of Glory 6/1 = £4 v £210.00
Trebles:
(1) 2.30 Thsk Maid In Manhhaten, 4.45 Thsk Purgatory and 8.15 NC Smugglers Creek = £2 v £168.74
(2) 4.15 Thsk Saluti, 5.15 Thsk My Ukelele and 7.25 Ham Deinonychus = £2 v £253.12
Total = £20 stakes
Results Update:
Five winners yesterday but only two were combined in a double which I feel was a bit unlucky. The double paid £56 because Gale Force Mayer being returned at 3/1 instead of 2/1
Hence profit = £56 -£20 = £36
Original Bank £2,538.61 Less £320 July Trixies add £222.96 August Doubles and trebles = £2,441.57
C/Fwd ROI N/A
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@LeMale Yes it was a bit disappointing that I didn't couple the winners up better. Never mind. There is always tomorrow. My double actually paid £56.00. However in the spirit of the £20 challenge I will only use the return as posted up here (albeit use the real figure for my own records). Hence £42 less £20 = £22 profit on the day
BTW when I worked out the returns for £2.50 win on each selection at the prices quoted above I would have received £32.49 less £7.50 on the 3 losers = £24.49. Hence, although as you say, I was a little unlucky not to get more than one double there was not much more profit wise in backing the beasts singularly. With that thought I don't feel jinxed, just a little unlucky!
Well done with Basilisk by the way.
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@MCLARKE when I started these threads back in June I was hoping to pay for Trixies and subsequently Doubles and trebles using either "Lay" bets or back to lay bets. The single lay bets were a failure and the back/lay bets were in part successful. I love to take out a kind of insurance bet to cover myself if there is a good chance of mitigating losses. Yesterday I laid Redrosczerro for £21.05 at 1.47 to cover £20 as the first leg of my double was a non-runner. It meant that I could cover my daily outlay but only make £5 if it won. Strangely enough it got matched at 1.39 because of a non runner even though it got beaten 2.75 lengths. Contrast this with The Pinto Kid that I laid for £21.05@ 2.10 it finished 6th beaten 3 lengths at 5/2 and my price was not matched. I think that it was because it was an evening meeting which did not have much market interest.
Hence although I do like the thrill of big wins I retain common sense in managing my betting bank.
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Let’s say that your criteria flags up two horses in different races that you feel have an excellent chance of winning today. The selection in the earlier race is forecast at 3/1 and the later runner is forecast at 4/1. Despite the difference in price you can’t see any difference between their chances of winning today.
Since you back single bets only you place £10 to win on the 3/1 shot and also £10 to win on the 4/1 shot.
If both win you take home £70 profit on the day. Well done. If the 3/1 shot only wins you collect £30. If the 4/1 shot only wins you win £40 = £40 profit on the day. If both lose you lose £20 on the day.
Now, let’s assume that instead of backing singles I place £10 win double on both your selections. If the first selection loses I am no worse off than you because I can place £10 to win on the second horse at 4/1.
But, let’s say that the first horse wins at 3/1. The potential return for the double is £40 @ 4/1 = £160 + stake of £40 = £200 less £10 outlay = £190.00
I could lay the second horse at 4/1 which would get matched for say £31.60 @ 5.0 = £30.02 if it loses or minus £126.40 should it win. If it loses then I have the same profit that you have of £30 having won on your first selction.
If it wins then I have £190 less £124.60 less £10 for the doubles stake = £55.40
Hence,you are right that there is a difference of £15 i.e £70 -£55 by backing singles and trying to adjust for the singles equivalent in respect of a doubles bet.
However, when I make my doubles selections I am confident about getting a good run from my selections; there is no way that I would lay the second horse at 4/1. With a the potential return above I would put in a lay bet for £10.53 @ 2.10 = £10 if matched and loses or -£11.58 if the horse should win. If it wins then my winning double now becomes £190 less £11.58 = £178.42 profit instead of your £70.0-profit. This is just me and the way I operate; I am happy to accept a nil loss versus a £30 profit for a single win.
By the way you will see that I proposed a £10 win double and not £20. This is because if the first leg failed then I would regard it as chasing losses to try and recover any extra money.
I am not ignoring July losses my friend; they sit there as a painful reminder each day in my results update. This was a different strategy based upon singl daily Trixie bets for a total of £20 which went wrong because long losing sequences and insufficient numbers of selections.
I hope that some of this helps.
Naps - Sunday Sept 1st
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
But you won £8.k once, how can I ever beat that