[Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2]

An interesting proposition Systemight, however the liability on the outsider could be such that if it did win (which it would do now and again) then it would wipe out all previous gains.  For example (Ignoring commission) if you laid £10 on the favourite at evens and say £20 on the outsider at say 20/1 so as to make a good profit should the jolly old favourite get beat then should the favourite win yo would lose £10 and gain £20 less commision (net) on the outsider.  However, come the day that the outsider trots up and wins then you would gain £10 on the favourite and lose £400 on the outsider.  Hence, 39 times you would have to get it right to allow for the day when you lose.  I don't know how this chap made his million pounds but he sure must have had a great method of avoiding outsiders winning.

I sincerely hope that you stick to backing horses in the future as you have done up to now.

This doesn't seem to me a sure fired way of making money by laying horses.

Many thanks for your thoughts; it is only by exchanging ideas that we make progress in our battle to make money in this betting game.

 

 

 

 

 

[Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2]

Well good luck with that Snoopdog;  I tend not to go against horses at less than 1.70.  If I did, I would still need to see vulnerabilty in the favourite plus at least two other horses as main live contenders neither of them being offerred at odds exceeding 10.0.  This is a tough ask.

 

[Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2]

Very many thanks for your very down to earth advice.

I am not so much interested in a strike rate for my "lay"bets but far more interested in matching my bets at a price which reflects value.  I also adjust my stakes according to odds so as to in effect even out successes to failures over a long period of time.

As far as I'm concerned if my "back" selections were say 2/1 then, if I was seeking value I would try and back three 2/1 chances at higher odds so as to get it.  This being so, I would ask for something like 3/1 or 4.0 for each horse.

One still has the problem of determining what is a true 2/1 chance though when making selections.

It seems easier for me to find possible weaknesses in a horse's chance of success as opposed to calculating a specific chance of it winning.

Since this Forum does not seem to support much in the way of "laying" I have reactivated my blog on teh Betfair Exchange Forum where Ironically I am now posting up a daily Trixie which is meant to be paid for by either "Lay" or "Back" bets.

I use the name of "The Equalser" should anyone be interested?

Once again, many thanks for the warm welcome given to me.

The Equaliser

 

[Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2]

Hi Billy,

Many thanks for your reply.

Understandable if the Forum doesn't have too many layers; do you know one that has?

I do back horses as well.

My favourite bet is a daily £1 Trixie bet on Sports Book.

The liability is just £4 but the rewards are much greater if all three come in.

I can start a different topic called "Daily Trixie" and start posting from tomorrow or Monday. 

I can't guarantee a posting every day as sometimes I get occupied with other things.

This could be interesting for your members.

I can make the selections and post them up each day and keep a running tally on profitability.  If I miss a day I just will pick up from my previous day's total.

I rarely cash out on the second leg should the first horse win as the return is awful.  I sometimes I cash out on the 3rd leg bet if I can recover my £4 stake.  If the first two horses lose then I place a £2 stake on the third horse to recover my Trixie stake.  I don't usually pick selections at a price less than 3/1 so should the first two horses lose then I can usually recover my multiples stake if teh third horse wins.  Just as an extra bit of meaness, I generally put a lay bet in on the 3rd horse so as to retrieve my stake of £4 but also set the odds so that if the horse gets matched in-running but doesn't win I get my initial stake of £2 back.

If you think that people on the Forum may be interested in this then I can start posting up soon

Regards,

The Equaliser

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2]

Hi Guys,

I am just wonderring if anyone is interested in helping me with daily analysis to find decent "lay" bets at short odds between 1.7 - 4.0 for lay betting purposes.

The night before racing I can list about between 20 - 30 horses for usual racing days and of course there are more on a Saturday.  I use Betfair and cross check with Oddschecker making a note of the lowest and highest price bearing in mind that the Bookies don't like to offer generous odds about anything at that time of night.

Anyway, the analysis involves cheking out track suitability, weight, draw (if applicable) mark, pace, distance, going and class.  There also has to be at least two other horses in the race who are considered to be live contenders whose individual odds do not exceed 10.0.

This is not rocket science and at this time of year "form book" analysts quite often get slaughtered in trying to either find winners or losers until the flat form truly sorts itself out.

I must admit that one has to be bold sometimes e.g. I laid Ten Sovereigns in teh 2,000 guineas because it was well known about its stamina problems but its price was short because a lot of people thought that its calss would see it though to win.  I also found it intersting that Istimraar was running for Dan Skelton last night in teh 6.10 at Worcester; it was 4/5 favourite and even teh commentators were expressing doubts about it winning this handicap chase.  But just because it was a Skelton horse the short price remained even in-running for a very long while during the race.

There are very many horses that run at cramped odds that are poor value for money where when the basic criteria above is applied they do not represent a good bet but instead a good opportunity to "lay" and make some money.

I could possibly analyse one meeting and come up with suggestions of good "lay" bets whilst others could analyse other meetings.  Obviously the horse(s) with the least going for them at the shortest prices are the ones to "Lay".

If anyone is interested in carrying out a bit of the work and sharing thenm please let me know?

Regards,

The Equaliser