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The Equaliser

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Posts posted by The Equaliser

    Daily Singles, Doubles, Trebles and Trixies

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by The Equaliser
    Change to add back Trixies

    Hi Guys,

    I will be posting my Trixie bets under this title from tomorrow.  It would seem that it is too confusing to mix up my "back to lay" bets and straight lay bets alongside my Trixie bets.

    I will of course post up my results to date on Trixies since I started on 27th May 19.

    Sorry for any inconvenience.

    The Equaliser

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    TODAY'S TRIXIE

    Not much in the way of class races where I can achieve the odds I like, however I have managed to make my selections in one class 3 race and two class 4 races.

    2.55 Market Rasen (5) Blushing Red 5/1, 3.05 Brighton (3) Lightening Charlie 7/2 and 6.20 Hayd ((3) Felix 3/1 = £4 outlay with a potemtial return of £177.00

    I haven't got a back to lay bet yet and thinking about it I will prefer to suggest just a "lay" bet on most weekdays as there aren't generally enough higher class races with fancied runners at the longer odds.  My bet will be for £4.21 at a max of 2.42 so as to yield £4 if the horse loses or a max of £5.98 should it win. I may choose to select my price in-running on some occasions.

    TRIXIE RESULTS

    Yesterday produced nothing but luckily my "back to lay" bet got matched in running but unfortunately it didn't win.

    Original bank £500 less £9.61 Trixies and other bets -£8.91 = £491.48 carried forward.

    Have a good day, I know I will.

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I think it will be easier for me to post up results in the evening and Trixie bets late morning from now on.

    I had one winner today which was Steel Wave at 3/1.  I was feeling a bit miffed by not including Handy Hollow in my Trixie so when it came to the 3rd leg of the Trixie I decided to cash out for £4.14 when I had the opportunity. The 5.50 at Newcastle was a class 6 Handicap race with 14 runners whereas my selections at Bangor were in class 4 races.  Hence a 14p profit on the day for the Trixie.  As you may have guessed I didn't get my back to lay bet matched on Handy Hollow. Also, I am thinking of keeping a log of the sequences on my Trixies that may be useful.  It would read LLLLLDLLC (where D stands for Double and C stands for Cash out.  "T" when it happens would stand for Treble.  My Trixie balance stands at -£1.61 so that's not bad going for 7 losses, a double and a cash out is it? I have moved the £9.27 Lay loss on to the back/lay side so as not to distort my Trixie account.

    Hence; Original bank £500 less (£1.61) Trixies and (£8.91) Back/Lay bets = £489.48 balance carried forward.

    Bit of a mixed bag of races tomorrrow; hopefully the weather will not play havoc with finding selections.

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    No joy again yesterday with my Trixie.  I am forever fascinated by the workings of the market forces.  I didn't get my back to lay bet matched at 12 as the available price of 9.6 on Something Exciting got smashed and it ended up being favourite at 5/1;finished 11th beaten 6 1/4 lengths.  Another horse of mine Frosted Lass was trading at around 4.0 in the morning and then went past 5.5 in the run up to the race; it finished 5th at 4/1 beaten 4 lengths.  Hence, the market got it wrong in the first instance and right in the second. Whilst we are all are affected by market moves I am not so sure that we can overly depend on them.

    Original bank £500 less £11.02 on Trixies and £0.36 on back/lay bets = £489.34 cumulative balance.

    My Trixie today is all at Bangor.  2.00 (1) Dounyapour, 3.30 (1) Steel Wave and 5.50 Newc (2) Life Knowledge = £4 stake with a potential £98.94 The prices are a bit skinny for my liking but my other fancies Delface in the 3.00 and Handy Hollow in the 4.00 do not seem to be getting good market support.

    I have put in a Back to Lay bet on Handy Hollow for £3 at 10.5 in the 4.00 Bangor (Currently trading at 7.6) so I won't hold my breath in the hope that the price will get matched.

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    No joy yesterday and only £0.36 gained on Mayfair Spirit.

    Original Bank £500 less -£7.02 on Trixies and plus £0.36 on back to lay bets = £493.34.

    Todays Trixie is all at Thirsk.  3.15 (12) Someone Exciting, 4.15 (1) Remember The Days and 5.15 (3) Frosted Lass = £4 stake and potential Return of £237.48

    I am struggling to find a back to lay bet.  I have put in £3 on Someone Exciting at 12 but it is currently trading at 9.6 so I may have to cancel the bet before I go off to lunch.
     

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Just for the record I have cashed out on my "back to lay" bet today.  This means that I will win £0.4 or £0.36 should Mayfair Spirit lose.  As mentioned before I should have placed £3 (max £4) on the horse last night.  I know this seems trivial but I like to correct mistakes when I make them.  It is of course possible for me to find another "Back to Lay" bet later if my Trixie goes pear shaped.  And, of course I will advise this prior to the off if I do.

    Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

    Don't know if you will find this interesting.

    I find it fascinating from the point of view that this seems to go on today.  This seems to be why one can see half a million matched on an ordinary race on an ordinary day in the UK.

    I don't understand how the big traders do it.  Once people start talking about algorithms I tend to give up.

    Anyway, fascinating stuff

     

     

     

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I was one length away from at least an extra £200 yesterday and being smothered in glory. Having got the first two in on my Trixie it was down to Broome to deliver in the Derby.  I didn't know that the horse plays up in the stalls, possibly why they put it in last.  Anyway this did not help its cause as it was slowly away.  Funny enough it seemd to be coming again at the end of the race so maybe it will be a good one for the St Leger.  I am glad that Seamie Hefferman won for Aiden O'Brien, perhaps I should have listened to Ed Chambers on Sky Sports who frequengtly tips the big race winners.

    At least I got a double in which was £30.25 less £4 = £26.25. Sonce I will be puting up a "Back to Lay" bet instead of a "lay" bet in future I have decided to offset my £9.27 accumulated "Lay"loss balance against the Trixie balance.  This means that my original balance of £500 now stands at £496.98 with -£3.02 on Trixies and nil on "back to Lay" bets.

    My "back to lay bet" did get matched in-running yesterday and funny enough Mark Johnston didn't get the winner with any of his three runners.

    I have just realised that I have made a mistake in staking on my "Back to lay" bet today.  I put £2 on it and it should have been £3.  This is because I quite often try to get a reduced price by puting in a larger stake to begin with in the hope of getting the lay price matched before the off.  Because I trade on Betfair it means that I would have to put another £2 on the selection at reduced odds and then trade out.  This being so I will take a chance of losing £2 instead of £4.

    With only two UK meetings today I ddn't think I would find a Trixie bet but as luck would have it I have.

    This is as follows: 3.20 Nott (4) Mayfair Spirit 4/1, 4.10 Fakenham (4) Fifty shades 7/2 and 4.30 Nottingham (6) Burford Brown 5/1.  This has a potential return of £214.50 for a £4 stake.

    Mayfair Spirit looked too big at 7.40 on Betfair last night and I placed £2 on it and it got matched.  As stated above I should have put £3 on it.  Never mind, I put in a "lay" bet of £2 at 5.2 so as to recover £4.18 should it get matched in running (oddly enough sports book is offering 4/1 however it is trading at 6.8 on Betfair)

    Have a good day, I know I will

    Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi Systemight and EC

    Sorry if I got the wrong end of the stick about laying a favourite along with an outsider.

    I have a multilay calculator which I can input horses in combination at various odds to arrive at different outcomes should say two lose or if one should win.

    I put some figures in for a horse at even money with one other horse at 20, 10 and 5. I used 100 points for each race and my results do not allow for commission to keep it all simple.

    At odds of 2.0 and 20,  I stake £90.91 at 2.0 & £9.09 at 20  The outcome is - £82 should either horse win or £100 if both lose.  At odds of 2.0 and 10, I stake £83.33 at 2.0 & £16.67 at 10.0.  The outcome is -£67 should either horse win or £100 if both lose. At odds of 2.0 and 5.0 I stake £71.43 at 2.0 & £28.57 at 5.0 The outcome is -£43 should either horse wins or £100 if both lose 

    Interestingly enough I thought it may be a good idea to give an example of a lay bet with another at 3.0; after all the horse should stand a 33% chance of winning if the odds were true and, even better a 67% chance of losing.

    At odds of 3.0 & 20 I stake £86.96 at 3.0 & 13.04 at 20. The outcome is -£161 should either horse win or £100 if both lose.         At odds of 3.0 & 10.0 I stake £76.92 at 3.0 & 23.08 at 10.0 The outcome is -£131 should either horse win or £100 if both lose.  At odds of 3.0 & 5.0 I stake £62.50 at 3.0 & £37.50 at 5.0. The outcome is -£88 should either horse win or £100 if both lose.

    Whilst I still can't see how to make a million usung this strategy what does appeal to me is staking £83.33 at 2.0 and £16.67 at 10.0.  Although I will lose £67 should either horse win I will gain £100 (less commission) when I am right.  Definitely food for thought.

    Many thanks for your comments.

     

     

     

     

     

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Nothing ran well at Carlisle yesterday, therefore a nil return.

    Original Bank £500 now stands at £470.73 with =£20 on Trixie and -£9.27 on Lay bets

    Today's Trixie is 2.35Epsom (3) Anna Nerium 4/1, 3.25 Muss(6)Just Benjamin 9/2 and 4.30 Epsom (3) Broome 6/1 = possible return £319 for a £4 stake.  Whilst one can never exclude any of Aiden O'Brien's horses when they run against each other I would be very surpised if Donnacha O'Brien has chosen the wrong horse to ride in the Derby.

    I have made an early doors "Back to Lay" bet in the 2.00 at Epsom.  I have backed (3) Victory Command for £2 at 13.00 which has been matched.  I have put in a lay bet for £2 at 10.5 in-running if neceesary to gain £4.75 for a free bet.  I will be very disappointed if if the horse cannot run to a price of 10.5 at some stage either pre-race or in-running.
     

    Daily Trixie paid for by a Back To Lay bet if it fails

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Hi Guys,

    I will post up my daily Trixie here as well as in the Forum on Betfair.

    I am including my results thus, for transparity which have not been fruitful yet.

    Since this site is more associated with betting than laying I will substitute my insurance bet with a "back to lay" bet rather than a "lay" bet.

    Another blank day with Markazi getting close to get 2nd by a neck at 11/4.
    I have c0ontrated my Trixe today at Carlisle which has Heavy Ground.  I have left Epsom alone.
    Original bank £500 now £474.73 Trixies - £16; Lay bets - £9.27, Back bets = Nil

    1.40 Carlisle (1) Pavers Pride 5/1, 2.15 (10) Lexikon 9/2 and 2.50 (9) Accross The Sea 4/1 = potential return £255.48

    If I get nothing on teh first two I may come back with a back to lay bet later.

     

    Daily Analysis Of Horses To Lay Between The Prices Of 1.70 & 4.2

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Well, when it comes to staking plans my hero of all time has to be Phil Bull of Timeform fame.  He used to get loads of people writing in to him with lots of hair brained schemes.  All he used to do was re-arrange the sequence of winners and losers and prove that they were all faulty.  He used to say that if selections could not show a profit using level stakes then no amount of juggling about with increased staking would work.

    I rather favour staking in accordance with a horse's chance of success so as to cushion the ups and downs of results.  However, although this means that if I had a £100 bank I would be placing say £20 on a 5/1 shot, £2 on a fancied 50/1 outsider and £50 on an even money shot one would be foolish not to allow for an increased bank so as to accomodate the winning and losing sequences even say on even money shots.

    Once again as you mentioned above it is very difficult to determine what is say a true 50% chance and ripping a bookmaker's arm off to get a 2/1 price about it.

    One would have to develop a criteria that shows over a period of time that given specific conditions a horse will win say 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and possibly 10% of the time. Then one could just request higher odds (if backing) and be guranteed to make money.

    There are so many variables when it comes to a horse being entered into one of the many types of races over courses that are very different up and down the country I don't think that it can be done.  If you find anyone who is able to do it then please let me know?

     

     

     

     

     

     

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