LeMale
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Posts posted by LeMale
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16 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
A loss of 2 points yesterday, this seems like death from a thousand cuts
That's 9 losing day a row, the run of 10 winning days in a row seems a long time ago
Current losing run 40 points
Total profit 131.10 points
Could be the last chance saloon today
COURSE TIME SELECTION ODDS BOOKMAKER PLACES Beverley 1.30 Loyal Touch 2.75 BETFAIR Sandown 1.50 Lyndon B 5.50 BETFAIR Beverley 2.05 Emaraaty Ana 16.00 LADBROKES Sandown 2.25 Doha 4.00 LADBROKES Beverley 2.35 Mattice 5.50 BETFAIR Chester 2.40 Two Tempting 14.00 LADBROKES 4 Chester 2.40 Yanifer 6.50 LADBROKES 4 Sandown 3.00 Involvement 1.75 BET VICTOR Beverley 3.07 Glory Hyde 6.00 BET VICTOR Chester 3.15 Real Dream 12.00 BET VICTOR Sandown 3.35 Tiger Mask 8.00 BETFAIR Beverley 3.42 Stiorra 3.00 BETFAIR Chester 3.50 Call Glory 4.00 BET VICTOR Chester 4.25 Raneenn 8.50 BETFAIR Sandown 4.45 Art Market 3.33 BETFAIR Beverley 4.55 Light Speed 5.00 BETFAIR Sandown 5.20 Sarah's Verse 12.00 LADBROKES Beverley 5.30 Whatwouldyouknow 12.00 BET VICTOR Chester 5.35 Rich Belief 12.00 BETFAIR It's just something about this time of year for me where i just keep hitting a wall, 3rd year in a row now and if it wasn't for my win in the racing league on Thursday, i might have finished early again, still might. But you're still in profit (don't know if it's paper or real) and as experiments go it's been pretty good i'd say. So chin-up Michael, i'm sure the tide will turn soon.
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5 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Think it is about 20/1 now and i notice Clarkey has it on his list looby lou. Interestingly the fav is an unraced animal priced at 4/7 when we talk about value in racing that (4/7) aint it my friends, 4/7 because it is entered in group races is nay a good criteria for backing an orse.
Exactly. I mean, i guess they run it against other horses with a stop watch, hence the fancy entries, but it's all new to the horse on a race day and who knows how it will react. This is all guess work on my part of course as i know nowt, but i just can't justify betting the amount of money you would need too, at that price, to get a decent return and even less so on a horse that has never raced before. No doubt it will shred the field apart now, but i'd rather my £1 ew gets me a tenner for a place than put £20 on the 4/7 shot for roughly the same money. This is the race with The Actor in it as well isn't it, i put that in one of my L-15's as i thought that might also do well back in calmer waters.
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1723 S - Harbour Vision @ 66-1 ew Bet365
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I know a lot of you don't like the Racing League, but hope some of you took advantage of what i mentioned a little while ago about Saffie Osborne rides. 3 winners and a place/5 with only the last runner not performing. Maybe it had something to do with the fact that she had already won the £20k jockey prize and her team had also already won.
- MCLARKE, LEE-GRAYS and The Equaliser
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6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Say you’ve identified a horse at say 33/1 who you think has a realistic chance of winning and a good chance of placing if you’re looking at the ew angle. Then you see the second favourite at 5/1 who you think has a very strong chance of winning what do you do ? Does that 5/1 put you off the 33/1 ?
No wouldn't put me off, but don't tend to have single bets on odds that low. If i felt really strongly about it, i would use it a Lucky 15 or acca.
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23 hours ago, LeMale said:
Don't normally get too involved in jump racing, but have often thought going up and down in class doesn't seem as big a jump as it is on the flat, is this close to being right ?
If so...1840 W - No way Pedro @ 20-1 ew Bet365 4p
(was a no show lto but won three back and is it just me, or two races back, did the jockey stop riding 100 yards from the line, but then start again?)
5th, so no returns, but did ok i thought.
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12 hours ago, Trotter said:
Only one big priced winner today ....... Catterick 3.15 - A class 6 Classified Stakes - Too Much Too Young - 40/1
What angle might you have noticed to consider it popping up at big odds ?
First run for a new trainer, first time cheekpieces
nothing else in it's record stands out
Both points valid. Horses that come from a big name trainer to a smaller yard i always think, less horses, more attention. Big trainers dump horses that don't perform to their high standards, but they can make mistakes, or they are not seeing the signs or paying enough attention to their lesser horses. Which leads me to your second point, first time cheek pieces and why did previous trainer not try them? I did look over this horse yesterday, but a little too late and lets start by saying that this was a poor race. I am guilty of looking at a certain class 6 races like yesterdays and wrongly think that they are all the same and of course they're not. (i think marks were between 40-50??) TMTY had been in slightly better races (still class 6) and out the handicap in the last couple if memory serves, but had claimers on top and i also think it's best race was at Catterick, so there is one point. I make notes of horses i see run that seem to be distracted, looking around, pull up to a horse on the run in but doesn't seem to pass them and note to myself "poss needs head gear". I had no such note for this horse (but did on Cordouan in Ireland and it won a few weeks ago in first time HG) but watching previous races did say to me that hg could well improve this horse. Katie (i think thats her name) Scott saw something in her short time with the horse, and c-p went on, or was it that a better jockey was on top, or that it had poor/under performing horses in the race, i guess we will see in it's next race. As a rule, this would have been enough for me to have an ew bet on if 3 places or extra places, but not sure it would have made the cut for me to enter in the nap comp. However, it does frustrate me when i miss a biggie on a day that's not got many meetings and even more so if i didn't give it a second look.
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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:
It was a bit of a tech-nerd point I'll grant you! Useful if you want to frame your own take on "fair" and "backable" odds for the things you bet on (which I do). Also useful if you want to look at the odds being offered by a bookmaker and strip out their profit margin to arrive at what they think the fair odds are (again, something that I do in certain markets).
Main point re longshots is they're a better bet if you look at them individually (and with some semblance of skill and judgement) than if you just view them as a whole based on stats.
After just reading Zils post, i just want to make it clear, i have no doubt Harry and Michael could improve my profits with their "Tech" and "Maths" it is just too confusing for ME to understand, i'm the thicko here. But as i've said before, it's always nice to check Michaels, Zils. Richards and Villa Chris's ratings to see if anything i've picked matches their's. I will listen to any free advice that's going and have learnt a lot from people on this site, and long may it continue.
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5 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
Sod’s Law you had mon I had jack ⚒️⚒️😂😂 @LeMale 😂
Struggled to find any today, the one i fancied most you had already picked, Robeam, which turned out to be a nr anyway ! Trojan Sun was the closest i got at a price (and it won) but i was too late and lost the price. I'm really struggling at the moment, getting a few places but missing the big price winners, but we battle on.
- kroni and The Equaliser
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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
The secret is just finding the ones where the price is wrong then the overround is an irrelevance, "simple" as that!
I think I know what you mean about the overround but there's two different % figures at play, the margin added to the true chance of the horse winning and how far out the odds are.
I assume you mean that if you're backing an even money shot it should probably be 11/10 (5% more) but the 100/1 shot should be more like 150/1 or around 50% more.
But in terms of margin there's more added to the favourite than the outsider. A true 11/10 shot has a 47.62% chance so priced at evens 2.38% margin has been added. The difference between 100/1 and 150/1 is only 0.33% (a 0.99% chance v a 0.66% one). So more margin is added to the shorter priced horses but the effect on the price is more marked at bigger prices. On that basis, more of the overround (profit margin) is added to the shorter priced runners.
In reality it's easier to price up a likely winner and apply enough margin to protect yourself but there's less room for manoeuvre if you underestimate an outsider.
I think this highlight's the difference between a largely stats driven approach like yours (and mine in football) and someone who's good at assessing individual runners on a more "organic" level. They've got a better chance of finding more value bets at bigger prices because they're not confined to factors that are in the numbers.
Your opening paragraph and finishing paragraph are the only things here that make any sense to me, the math is irrelevant, but of course, that's MY opinion. I'm sure nothing you or Michael have said is wrong, but you guys talk about "Overround" "Margin" "Percentages" and something to do with "Edge", a year ago i didn't even know what any of those terms were and i'm not 100% i completely understand them now, and i don't want to know. (i'm not knocking anything you've said or what you two do, i'm just trying to explain (very badly) that what you guys do would just confuse me, and as Zil mentioned, put me off picking something i've found) Find a horse with the wrong price, it's that simple and if your lucky and find something and then head to oddschecker and it's turning blue across the board, then you know you were right. I've mentioned before that my bets used to be a lot easier the less i knew and of course i made some schoolboy errors and probably still do, but i try to keep it as simple as possible and once i've found my big priced horse, but then find a 1-10 fav heads the market, i still don't care because it's 2 bets, 1 win and 1 to place and it's horse racing, anything could happen. Even if i think i can see what will win a race, but my odds are, lets say 80-1, if it places i will still make more money than betting on the winner, like what happened yesterday with my nap selection, it made me more than the two winners i had yesterday. I guess i'm showing my inexperience in the horse racing world not taking math into consideration, but i'm a simple man, or maybe i'm just simple.
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3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Apart from my speed figures, your approach matches mine pretty much to the letter. Also "i do have more points" is bang on but i find the more "points" i find, the more i find a reason not to back a horse that i have eyeballed at a decent price so i try to keep it down to a few criteria simply because if you were to look at everything then you would end up backing nothing because all horses have negatives to find if you look hard enough. Nothing worse in my view than saying FFS why didn't i back that after initially picking it. A wise old man once said to me "never change your mind".
Completely agree. Find something, even two somethings, then i check the simple things like, it's not out of the weights up 3/4 classes, it's not a sprinter running 2 miles, (or vice-versa) it always comes last on certain goings and it didn't lose a leg lto etc etc. If i think i've found an edge and it's priced wrong imo, (Michael and H comments above, which i will get onto next) then stop looking and get the bet on.
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Don't normally get too involved in jump racing, but have often thought going up and down in class doesn't seem as big a jump as it is on the flat, is this close to being right ?
If so...1840 W - No way Pedro @ 20-1 ew Bet365 4p
(was a no show lto but won three back and is it just me, or two races back, did the jockey stop riding 100 yards from the line, but then start again?)
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21 hours ago, LeMale said:
1845 Bellewstown - Buddy Batt @ 28-1
Ran really well lto in a better race than this and beat todays fav, so don't understand the 28-1 odds but worth an ew with extra places.
Came 8th/13 so disappointing. Jockey gave it a strange ride, seemingly wanting to go right, then stay right, when it bends to the left and seemed to lose about 5 lengths on the bend alone. Will keep an eye on it though.
Completely the reverse for my nap today who was the only one still riding after a run away winner and 2nd and went form second last into 3rd and got me a place at 80-1. The swings and round-abouts of horse racing eh !
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1 hour ago, Trotter said:
Might have a crack at picking big priced horses next month in the NAPS comp ......... say 20/1 and above
I guess you could look at trainerform ....... find a trainer banging the winners in who's got one in a handicap ?
or look for horses that were much higher rated in the past and have fallen down the weights but are showing signs of a revival in their last couple of races
One thing I look for is 'getting closer' horses over their last 3 runs ....... so beaten 10L, 5L, 2L......... especially if they're now dropping in class. To be fair though a horse like that is probably not going to be 20/1
There are going to be plenty of big priced horses running every day ...... the skill is in picking the ones that might win and not just getting carried away by the price and the feeling that 'they might run into a place' which is a common mindset with big priced runners (I'm as guilty of this as anyone)
I don't think there's much fun in picking them at random ......... you need something to hang your hat on, eg is it top rated by RPR and 25/1, did it win this race last year and is now 33/1 ......
How would you go about picking a biggie ?
It really does take up a lot of time if you really want to find a possible winner lurking at a big price, that is if you want to be consistent, or as consistent as you can be picking big prices. As Micheal has mentioned a few times, he couldn't live with the long losing runs and at those prices, it will happen, i'm on one at the moment. But you have mentioned some good points already, did it win this race last year, Chinese Spirit ran today is an example of that and i looked at it, but passed. Hard Nut won today at 50-1 and if any one gave it a second look today, i'd be surprised, but i did. It always catches my eye because i get it mixed up with another horse whose name escapes me, but as i gave it a look, i noticed that it had lost all head-gear. No, it wasn't enough for me to bet on today, (although hindsight is a wonderful thing!) but had i not been on this losing run and with my confidence a little low at the moment, i might have done on another day if i was short of picks. Trying to read certain trainers and work out when they think a mark is low enough for a horse to start trying to win. Cheek pieces, blinkers, tongue ties etc etc, back from a wind op, 2nd run after a wind op, horses for courses, the lists are endless and you might need to find 2 or 3 of these to find that diamond in the rough. I think i've bored myself with my own write up, but i will end with this...To save some time, i work backwards in a race and by that i mean i skip right pass the head of the market and go right to the end and if the outsider isn't big enough for me, i just move on to the next race and when i find something (for eg) that is now below last winning mark, is at a course that he runs well and is back from a wind op and is 33-1, i bet on it, with my £2 win or £1 ew stakes and this of course is why i can play the big prices and up to 20 a day sometimes if that's how many i find, (but on average 10) because my stakes are low and i never bet what i can't afford to lose. I do have more points, but i'm stopping now......
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28 minutes ago, LeMale said:
1845 Bellewstown - Buddy Batt @ 28-1
Ran really well lto in a better race than this and beat todays fav, so don't understand the 28-1 odds but worth an ew with extra places.
Same race as i know you like your forecasts @Zilzalian, if you fancy the above, a couple of biggies that could also run well here are Only Spoofing @ 33-1 and Rathbranchurch at a skinny 12-1. Latter has won here and former seems to run better when mark is below 80. The shorties that head the market have also run well here, so they are dangers.
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Just now, LeMale said:
1845 Bellewstown - Buddy Batt @ 28-1
Ran really well lto in a better race than this and beat todays fav, so don't understand the 28-1 odds but worth an ew with extra places.
Sorry, it was 28-1 when i started, but 365 is still 25-1, strange that they seem to have just gone from 18's to 25's and others are dropping. Could just be what i call a "Paddy power special" Either way, i quite like it.
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1845 Bellewstown - Buddy Batt @ 28-1
Ran really well lto in a better race than this and beat todays fav, so don't understand the 28-1 odds but worth an ew with extra places.
- MCLARKE, Bedlam, justanotherpunter and 1 other
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31 minutes ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
Thurrock all stars 😂😂 there backing your one @LeMale backed it at 66/1 single but had to what for @Carole-dawney to do hers lost 33 points will take outbof her house keeping 😂
I lost the price myself fannying around, because it was 100-1 when i first went to put it up in the nap comp, then i refreshed the page on oddschecker and 365 were the only one offering 80-1 and only after that realized i hadn't even bet on it yet !!! Got 80-1 single, but lost it by the time i found 3 more rags to chuck in my L-15, but will probably go back up before race time.
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