Hermes

Gael Monfils to beat David Goffin at 1.83 with Bet365
Taking this early, I expect odds to drop on Gael here. David is only a shadow of his former self right now and he needs a lot more to be done to be able to produce his best tennis and I don't see it coming in Rotterdam.

Also think of taking Tsonga vs Radu because Tsonga is the better [player and he's looking better today.N even though Pierre Hughes Herbert is remarkable I think Berdych punches above his weight. Krajinovic was playing well yesterday n I don't think that was a small feat.

Not that Tsitsipas was looking very good yesterday,he made a lot of unnecessary errors but I think Monfils has a chance to 'upset' Medvedev. Medvedev is a favorite here n rightly so but I believe on tour this is one of the few titles Monfils will look to secure than bigger tournaments which he has not had much luck in the past.He's 32 now and given injuries might be a problem he's going to have to be dealing with now I think he'll be motivated to go for 250 and 500 tournaments now more and more.Given his athletic nature going all out against any big 4 at a big tournament at a risk of injury is not worth it now.He's looking more focused this year n I saw people say his serve is also different/better.He could have gone further in AO, I remember his ankle problems in the match Vs Fritz.Some extra motivation might go a long way.

Guido Pella to beat Diego Schwartzman at 2.71 with Marathon Bet
I will be quick because the match starts soon. I watched the first set of Diego against Giannessi and he played horrible. The next day i saw that he finally won the match but looks like Giannessi had some kind of injury (too many hours on court in his legs). Pella won in straight sets against Ramos and leads the h2h with Diego (4-1).

Matteo Berrettini to beat (-1.5 sets) Marton Fucsovics at 2.65 with Unibet
Matteo is playing for a place in the semifinal and he would deserve to be there. Marton got lucky with RBAs walkover but now his luck should end just like it did in Irving challenger semifinal last season when Matteo beat Marton 6-3 6-4. Marton played like an amateur last time he was on the court while Matteo has played his best tennis as if he was a top 50 player which he is close to and he very mutch deserves a place in the final. I don't see Marton stopping him and based on last years Irving result I think there's value in backing Matteo to win in straight sets.

Close shave!

I think Berrettini has a chance of upsetting Verdasco today.Despite the AO hangover syndrome where the favourites are getting whacked this week:Fognini yesterday, Pouille Basilashvili maybe? Beating Khachanov especially on what could be considered to be his favorite surface(Indoor hard) is no small feat..I'll wait to watch the odds but a clean sweep -1.5 sets is possible.

Pablo Cuevas to beat (-1.5 sets) Malek Jaziri at 1.76 with Unibet
Pablo have already beaten Malek in straight sets on hardcourt 2016 in Winston-Salem open by 7-5 6-1. If anyone saw Pablo playing yesterday he was absolutely outstanding. He didn't face a break point the hole match because his serving was so perfect. Pablo looks like he's back to his normal standard of play again and that means he will likely win this match in straight sets.
Marius Copil to beat Fernando Verdasco at 2.35 with Unibet
Marius and indoor hardcourts in Europe is always a good combination, it's where he is the most dangerous and that performance in first round when he beat Stan is just enough for me to think he can beat Nando as well. Mirza Basic the last seasons Sofia winner is out but that's just because his form have been awful ever since he won that Sofia final. Marius who was runner up last season sits in a hole different situation because he is making progress and that's why he's winning matches like never before. Nando is a lefty but I think Marius can deal with that well enough to beat him and reach the quarterfinal. Nando is living a lot on his reputation nowadays and he isn't the player who reached the Aussie open semifinal many years ago. Now Nandos tournaments often ends with him going out before the quarterfinal. He doesn't have the same ability to win titles anymore and he is living on his routine in many matches but it's not enough to reach finals. I just can't help but thinking Marius wins this with his big serve that gets him out of danger many times. He finished his last match with saving a break point in the last game when he was serving for the match and nicely finished the match by serving two huge first serves. Nice value on Marius here so I'm all over it.
 

What do you think about Kotov - Coppejans in Budapest Challenger? Special facts on it.
 
Kotov is a 20 years old russian that has won 1 game in Budapest and with a year record 7-2 (all game in hard surface).
 
On the other side of the net, there will be Coppejans that last Saturday the 2nd of February was playing Davis Cup in Brazil on clay court.
His record on hard is 55-62.
 
Much more experience for the belgian but I think the tough games in Davis Cup on clay and the surface change will affect him a lot.
 
Pavel Kotov @ 1'86 at Pinnacle Stake 1/10

Roberto Bautista Agut to win ATP Sofia at 5.50 with bet365
My last bet this week. Considering the odds we have 4 favorites to win here: Bautista (5.5), Tsitsipas (5.5), Khachanov (5.5) and Medvedev (6.0). From all these players Bautista is the one who “theorically” has two first rounds easier than the others had.
He will face tomorrow Ebden (his victory against him is paid at 1.15). Ebden almost lost against Adrian Andreev, a local player who is 17 years old.
In his second match Bautista will face Yannick Maden/Seppi/Fucsovics (I think that he now is so much better than any of them). Fucsovics had an injury in the AO and he couldn’t compete for his country in the Davis Cup, so he can’t be in his best. Seppi played 2 matches in the Davis Cup (against Ramanathan 6-4, 6-2 and against Gunneswaran 6-1, 6-4). Both matches were played on Grass (different surface from here: hard indoor). Yannick Maden, who surprisingly won against Mannarino, can’t be a threat for RBA.
In the Semifinal he will face Khachanov/Berrettini/Copil/Lazarov/Verdasco. At first I have to say that this looks the kind of tournament were Verdasco has an early “unexpected” defeat (these are my feelings, let’s see what happens). Lazarov is a local player who is 17 years and probably will be destroyed by Verdasco if nothing “strange” happens there. Then Verdasco will face Copil (anybody can win here). The other players are Khachanov and Berrettini. The Russian played 2 matches in the Davis Cup (against Huesler 6-3, 7-5 and against Laaksonen 7-6, 6-7, 6-4). The matches were played on hard but is remarkable how Laaksonen put him in real troubles. Is important to remember that Bautista won against Khachanov 6-4, 7-5, 6-4 in the Australia Open (RBA leads the h2h 3-1 and the only 2 matches played on hard are victories for RBA). Anyway, I think Berrettini can put in some troubles to Karen, let’s see.
Im not gonna analise the possible Finalists from the other part. We have there Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Haase, Monfils,… The 2 more dangerous are Medvedev and Tsitsipas I guess (also Monfils if he finds some regularity in his game).
Finally, I want to talk about Bautista. He is in his best form. In the AO he won against Murray, Millman, Khachanov and Cilic. He won in Doha, beating there Berrettini, GG Lopez, Wawrinka, Djokovic and Berdych. I have no doubts about his implication here, he did Title here in 2016, beating Troicki in the Final.

Players like Wawrinka don’t need to gain money with match fixing, they have a lot of money. Wawrinka had a complicated match against Copil who did final in this tournament the last year and Basilashvili can win against the best players but he also can lose against low ranked players because he has an ultra-aggressive style of playing. There is a lot of match fixing in Challengers and ITF events but I can’t imagine players with a good ATP ranking fixing matches so it’s more a motivation issue like you said. Obviously, there will be some that do it but not too many (and not the 2 players you have mentioned I guess). The most typical form of match fixing in this level is that where players bet for themselves on a full match bookie and If they see that they can’t win the match they retire.

Struff + Monfils to win (Sofia) @ 1.866 bet365
The odds are not great on the singles especially considering the matchups but it still looks like both Struff and Monfils should come ahead.
Not much to say...
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Monfils vs Troicki
Monfils looked a bit tired/injured against Fritz at AO but on sheer talent and h2h he should win if no massive injury.
Troicki is still capable of some good performances (eg he beat a few good players indoor last year) but having watched him drop a set to King at AO I don't think he has enough to win vs Gael
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Struff vs Travaglia
Struff is pretty good indoor and has started the season relatively well. (not sure how fast the court is there)
Travaglia doesn't look too good indoor and still looks behind Struff in terms of quality
 
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any thoughts on Basic vs Klizan?
Basic looked terrible at AO

N Vidjay Sundar Prashant to beat Carlos Boluda Purkiss at 3.00 with Betsafe
Taking a livebet on the indian in Chennai here. I think he's the better player on this surface and he seems to be able to win the rallies so he could run out victories at home.

Karlovic + Tsonga at 1.89 with SportingBet
"Dr. Ivo" has impressed me in the early part of the season, having made the final of ATP Pune (and then only losing in 3 tight sets to Anderson) and going out in 5 sets to Nishikori in the Australian Open. Obviously the court surface favours Karlovic here, and he has a 3-1 H2H record against his opponent. @CzechPunter has already covered the play on Tsonga, so I won't repeat it here.

Dayana Yastremska to beat Garbine Muguruza at 1.95 with SportingBet
I'm a big fan of Ms. Yastremska, and she has deposed of her previous two opponents with relative ease. Obviously Muguruza will be somewhat more of a challenge than her two previous opponents, however, Yastremska beat Muguruza in Luxembourg last year in straight sets (6-2, 6-3) despite having to back up from her win in Hong Kong the previous week.

Donna Vekic to beat Petra Kvitova at 4.00 with bet365
I expect Petra to run out of steam here as she's playing for the fourth straight week and now on a different continent having to travel from Melbourne to St. Petersburg. Donna is not as forgiving as Vika was in the last round and she's defenitiely in decent form or whatever form you can expect from Donna to have nowadays and she's good enough to take advantage of any fatigue that Petra has. Same thing happened last season in St. Petersburg when Caroline Wozniacki came from Melbourne after winning AO as she won her first match but went out to Daria Kasatkina in the match after. Highly likely that Petra should start feeling some fatigue and finally get knocked out before the final of a tournament again after reaching two successive finals down under. Petra wins this match probably if she's 100% but chances are she's not gonna be 100% this time.

Donna Vekic (+4.5 Games) to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.98 with 888
I was preparing the explication for this one but there is no need to do it because four-leaf has done it in his post. The fatigue from Kvitova after a lot of matches played and the good form from Vekic are the main reasons.
I watched Alexandrova and she had some kind of problem/pain during the match. I don’t know what she had exactly but she and her coach looked a little bit worried. During the second set looks like their plan was “go on and if we lost the second set we retire” but even with that handicap she won in straight sets. If somebody else has seen the match and knows what she had exactly or can find some info about this would be good.

Pouille returns better Raonic serves than Raonic his.
If there is tie break, of course its 50/50, but dfaaaamn Pouille todays plays amazing

Im watching and i think there are bigger chances on 3:0 than Raonic to take a set.

Djokovic (-7,5 games) to beat Nishikori at 2.10 with bet365
Nishikori can't have much energy left in his body after that gruelling 5-hour marathon match against PCB. Nishikori had to play couple long matches before that too (against Majchrzak and Karlovic), and I believe that will show in this match. Great odds on Djoker here IMO.

Live bet ash Barty to win @1.72 bet365

For no reason i have the feeling Alex Bolt will upset Zverev tomorrow. LOL.
 

Did you actually watch the matches? No offense, i also think Nishikori should pull this off and win vs. Sousa BUT Nishikori looked horrible. How can you write that Nishikori was more convincing than Sousa? Sousa played 2times better than Nishikori in both of his matches. Nishikori was outpointed by Karlovic from time to times and i do not talking about the serve or something. Nishikori was absymal vs. Majchrzak and didn't look good vs. Karlovic either. I would not touch this handicap with one hand right now. Sousa also has a very awkward style and also uses a lot of slices like Karlovic and Nishikori had many problems to handle the slice. 
The H2H is irrelevant as one win for Sousa was a retirement by Nishikori by the way. 1-1 sounds so even considering Sousa never won a set vs. Nishikori. Still, i doubt this is serious value. I would consider taking the over here instead of -6 at worse odds.
Sousa looked pretty good so far and beat two very good players (Kohli, Pella). Was very impressed by the serve of Sousa which worked really well under those conditions.
Anyway...good luck but i can only stay away from that match. Everything can happen but if everything goes his way sousa should have pretty decent chance to win at least one set here.

Even though Monfils cruised easily past Dzumhur he was clearly suffering Vs Fritz.For a guy known for his athletism you could clearly see he was suffering last two sets.Ankle injuries.Not discounting Fritz I think he's a player on the up but I think Roger might be too much for him..Monfils could beat Fritz on Wednesday but I don't think Roger will take him easily.

Raonic was struggling at the end with an injury. I'd be very cautious in backing him any further.