darko08
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Posts posted by darko08
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Felix Auger to beat Nishioka at 1.65 with Marathonbet
Going with Alex again. 2 very convincing wins here against Norrie (6-3, 6-2) and Tsitsipas (6-4, 6-2). Nishioka has win here against Kudla in a 3 set match and Bautista (7-6, 6-4). Not impressed with his win against Bautista because he had some health problems recently. I think Felix is the right favorite and I expect him taking advantage of Nishioka weak serve.
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Feliciano López (+3.0 Games) to beat Kharen Khachanov at 1.94 with Marathonbet
Based on the horrible recent form of Kharen. He’s on 3 losing streak since the AO (Berrettini, Griekspoor and Basilashvili). This will his first match here while Feli has already 1 win here against Berdych (7-6, 6-6).
Filip Krajinovic to beat David Goffin at 2.80 with Marathonbet
Krajinovic has already 3 wins here against Ramanathan (6-4, 6-0), Berankis (6-3, 7-5) and Kukushkin (6-3, 6-4). This will be the first match for Goffin here and his recent results are not good.
Alex Bolt to beat Guido Pella at 2.40 with 888
Bolt has already 3 wins here against Quinzi (6-4, 7-5), Eubanks (7-6,7-6) and Gulbis (6-3, 5-7, 6-2). Pella comes from the south American tour and this will be his first match here.
Alexei Popyrin (+3.0 Games) to beat John Isner at 1.95 with Marathonbet
Popyrin has already 3 wins here against Kovalik (6-3, 6-3), Rosol (7-5, 6-3) and Munar (7-6, 6-3). This will the first match for Isner here and he’s not getting good results recently.
@CSanders22 yep, that's probably one of the keys of the match. Take a look at the stats of her match against Brady in Dubai where she lost 6-4 and 6-0. Ostapenko has not a good serve and her second serve is very vulnerable. Vondrousova has a decent serve including her second serves. Ostapenko will need to play with first serves or she will concede a lot of BP. I don't know the stats about this but what results has Ostapenko against lefty players? That will be interesting to know. Another point, Vondrousova destroyed Daria with a lot of drop shots (she has a nice ability to do that) and Ostapenko is a baseliner she will have to be aware of that.
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4 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:
The problem with backing Ostapenko is similar to that of backing Fognini. So wildly unpredictable that it's impossible to have any degree of confidence in backing her. She can as easily lose 6-0, 6-0 as win 6-0, 6-0. She doesn't have that "fighter spirit" of someone like Halep.
But Fognini and Ostapenko have different problems. The problem of Fognini is his implication, he has tanked 3 consecutive tournaments in the south american tour and it's something that he does very regularly (i can't understand why the ATP does nothing in front of this). Ostapenko is unpredictable but for her super aggressive style of playing.
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14 minutes ago, money44 said:
@darko08 - One way you can describe value is if you are backing a bet with odds of 1.6 .. You better be absolutely sure that bet is going to win unless you are doing it in a parlay.
Vondrousova just played a very long tournament in Budapest.. I did not see her matches but I can almost guarantee you that Ostapenko is more rested than her. Ostapenko just clobbered a very talented player in the last round only conceding 3 games total. She is far more experienced than Marketa, and just as talented if not more so..
Ostapenko has made the 2nd and 3rd round here in successive years, and she will want to improve on that performance this year as well... i haven't seen the draw but she could advance to the quarterfinals this go round.
Ostapenko's countrywoman also has advanced in this tournament as well.. I think that provides some additional motivation for whatever reason.
When you are betting ... you never know when you are gonna be correct , but if you take that bet ... like i said ... there is too much of a doubt in this case to lay that type of odds.. The match is atleast 50/50 based on this analysis I've given you... You have no reason such as Ostapenko is injured or something like that... I am 70% confident Ostapenko will take the match
Yeah, I rarely post a bet saying that there is value on there. In this case i can't say that there is value on taking Vondrousova, it's another personal appreciation like almost all my bets. I have following her for a long time and i think that her game can cause some damage to Ostapenko if she's not accurate with her aggressiveness because Vondrousova has a strong defense.
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@money44 Yeah, maybe Ostapenko wins this but what is "value"? I think value really never exist in sports betting, it’s just a personal appreciation that sometimes can be reforced with some objective facts but objectively talking value can’t exist because bookies take in consideration all the objective facts possible to fix the odds. You can say “well there is value when bookies make mistakes” but I don’t think so, you can think that but probably there are a lot of other objective facts that bookies have considered and you not. I think that real value (considering this as objective value) only can be found in facts that bookies can’t predict: tanking, physical problems… so If you’re not considering any of these facts don’t have sense talking about value, just about personal appreciations.
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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Jelena Ostapenko at 1.67 with William Hill
I will go with Vondrousova again. She’s a player that im following for a long time and she have the conditions to be a top 10 player in the future, for sure. She has win here against Siegemund (6-4, 7-6) and Kasatkina (6-2, 6-1). Ostapenko is one of the most aggressive style players of the WTA but we all know that when she’s not accurate she can lose the matches very easily. The point here is that she will play against a player who has a strong defense and that will force Ostapenko to hit an extra ball so in these circunstances I can see her doing a lot of unforced errors. Vondrousova has better serve than Ostapenko, her game on the net is also better and she has a better ability for the drop shots so the only scenario for me here where Ostapenko can win this one is holding a high % of accuracy with her aggressive forehand and backhand shots the whole match, something that seems difficult to me.
Fabio Fognini to beat Radu Albot at 2.05 with betfair
Fognini tanked 3 consecutive tournaments, 4 in a row would be too many even for a clown like him. Another fact that makes me think that he will be implicated is that he has win the doubles match. Considering all of this I take him. I know Albot is on fire and he has already win 3 matches here but Fognini is better player and he’s fresh to play against him after playing only 3 single matches in the last month. We have seen some players coming here from the South American tour winning some matches against players who were better adapted to the conditions so why not Fognini.
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another one for me that chokes in the final set (Berankis)
@money44 thx, you also had some bad luck with the thirds sets with Jaziri and Mayer, let's see if Doi makes a surprise against Plisko in the final set.
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Well, Mona Barthel and Felix did my day. Still have Berankis, Klizan, Kohls and Kanepi but with the first two i will be in profit. This is the last time i bet for Tomjlanovic as the underdog because ALWAYS happens the same. She goes to the final set and there she gets nervous and chokes, it's simply incredible. Pegula was very close, she took the first set and was 5-4 in the second one on serve but finally lost the match..
- Grass Cash, eros and CzechPunter
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@money44 these are my finally official bets. Low stakes all of them obviously because they are all non-favorite players. If i get profits at the end of the round i will do this more regularly.
Kaia Kanepi to beat Julia Gorges at 2.30 with William Hill
Kanepi has already win 1 match here against Larsson (6-2, 6-2). Gorges started the year winning in Auckland but did nothing remarkable since then and she comes here after losing in the first round in Dubai against Riske (6-4, 7-5).
Mona Barthel to beat Madison Keys at 6.25 with 888
Keys has never won more than 1 match in any of her 6 participations here. She has lost in the first round the last 3 years here without winning any set. This will be the first match for her since the Fed Cup. Barthel has already win one match here against Lin Zhu in a 3 set match.
Jessica Pegula to beat Lesia Tsurenko at 2.50 with William Hill
Pegula destroyed Zarina Diyas in the first round (6-1, 6-1). She has played a couple of Finals this year in minor events but beating some interesting players. This will the first match for Tsurenko here and she did nothing remarkable since her quarterfinals in the US Open.
Alja Tomjlanovic to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 3.70 with betfair
Alja has already win 1 match here against Cornet (7-5, 6-3). Sabalenka is the favorite but Alja will have more chances than the odds suggest.
Ricardas Berankis to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at 2.75 with 888
I don’t understand this big favoritism for Struff. Berankis did very well in her previous tournament in Dubai, winning there against Lestienne, Basic, Medvedev and Kudla. He finally lost against Monfils in a 3 set match. Struff has did nothing remarkable since a long time (even he lost in Rotterdam against an unknown player in straight sets) so I don’t understand these odds.
Felix Auger Aliassime to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 3.25 with bet365
Felix has already win 1 match here against Norrie (6-2, 6-3). This will be the first match for Tsitsipas here. I think he’s overrated for his last results and I expect a long match here with good chances for Felix to win this one.
Philipp Kohlschreiber to beat Nick Kyrgios at 2.75 with William Hill
Kohls has already played one match here against Herbert (6-4, 6-0). This will be the first match for Kyrgios here. He comes here after winning in Acapulco so Im not sure about his implication here (even with Kyrgios implicated Kohls should have more chances than the odds suggest).
Martin Klizan to beat Alexander Zverev at 6.25 with 888
Klizan is very good, if he's implicated and plays as he can he will put Zverev in troubles. He has already 1 win here against the other Zverev (6-1, 6-4).
- Sportwetten, Sir Puntalot, CzechPunter and 3 others
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@money44 mmh i usually like the underdogs you pick but this time i don't like some of them.
Monfils is in the best moment of his career. Mayer did nothing remarkable in the tournaments he played in the american tour on clay (his best surface) why he should win now a player who is playing some really good tennis. I think Monfils is overrated because the odds are ridicolous but he's the right favorite.
Jaziri looked out of form in the american tour and he will face a pusher. Simon looks the right favorite.
I can't see Doi surprising Pliskova. The last time i saw Misaki Doi was in the Fed cup when she lost against Georgina Garcia Perez. Georgina has a similar style of playing than Pliskova with one difference: Pliskova does all 10 times better than Georgina. The 3 wins here of Misaki don't impress me because all of them have been against low level players. In her previous tournament she lost against Vekic 6-0, 6-3 in Acapulco.
Vondrousova looks the right favorite to me also and later i will post a bet for her explaining the reasons why (that was a bet that i had on my mind since this morning).
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@money44 your top 5 non-favorite players for today/tomorrow (ATP WTA)?¿
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@money44 opinions about these ones:
Alja Tomjlanovic vs Sabalenka
I have take Alja as underdog a lot of times and she always have lost but by low margins. My feelings are that she will have more chances than the odds suggest again. Alja has already 1 win here against Cornet in straight sets (and that’s no easy because Cornet on slow hard courts is dangerous).
Berankis vs Struff
The odds are because Berankis is here as a LL but the difference is not as big as the odds suggests.
Klizan vs Zverev
Klizan has win the other Zverev (6-1, 6-4) in the first round. Klizan is very good but the main problem is that he is unpredictable (you never know what version he will show), but if he’s implicated he can put Zverev in troubles.
Gunneswaran vs Basilashvili
Gunneswaran has already 3 wins here and this will be the first match for Basilashvili. I like taking him as underdog because he can win against anybody if he’s accurate but at the same time he can lose against everybody if he’s not so Gunneswaran at odds around 3.50 looks not bad (but if Basilashvili plays good the whole match there will be no match).
Kohls vs Kyrgios
Kyrgios won in Acapulco so why not an early bye here against a good player like Kohls after a lot of bad words from him against Nadal and anybody who critics his manners?
Karlovic vs Coric
Ivo at these odds is always a good option because his matches are usually decided in the TB. He has already 1 win here against Ebden (7-6,7-6).
Felix Auger vs Tsitsipas
I know this looks like a bad bet considering how Tsitsipas is playing but I think Felix will have more chances than the odds suggest. One win for Felix here against Norrie (6-2, 6-3).
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Kaia Kanepi vs Julia Gorges. Bad luck for Julia, this is not a good opponent for a first round. Kaia has already 1 win here against Larsson (6-2, 6-2) and the conditions are good for her.
Mona Barthel vs Madison Keys
This will be the first match for Keys since the Fed Cup. The last 3 years here she has lost in her first match and she never has win more than 1 match in any of her 6 participations here.
2018: Lost in her first match against Collins (6-3, 7-6)
2017: Lost in her first match against Duque Mariño (6-1, 7-5)
2016: Lost in her first match against Gibbs (6-3, 6-3)
I don’t like so much Barthel but she has already one win here against Lin Zhu and the results show us that Keys doesn’t like the conditions here (the courts are slow).
@money44 I'm searching more underdogs but i have to go out for a moment, more later i will put more underdogs. Give your opinions about them.
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@money44Well probably i have to take more risks but in other way. A lot of times i take the underdog but with some kind of handicap to take less risks. For example i take Flipkens to win at least one set against Genie when probably i should take her to win the match at odds around 3.00. I did the same with Pegula against Zarina and she won her 6-1, 6-1.. when she was paid also with odds around 3.00. I have take a couple of pure hardcourt players who played against claycourters who were "tired" and without adaptation to the conditions here but surprisingly they have win. I was thinking to bet Andreescu to win 2-0 also but finally i didn't and that was another bad decision (that was paid around 2.5 and were a lot of reasons to think that Andreescu would destroy Cibulkova and finally she did). So what's happening to me these days is that im taking a lot of bad decisions, anyway, you're right about what you're saying, a lot of times the best decision is taking the underdog because this is a sport where anybody can beat anybody but i think that betting 2-0 sometimes is not bad.
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Sorry for overbetting but this will be the last one for sure (I expect to win 4 or 5 at least).
Thomas Berdych (-1.5 Sets) to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.65 with 888
Im a little bit surprised for how they pay the 2-0 in this one. Feli is almost retired, Berdych should win this comfortably. Personally, I will pay this at 1.45-1.50 so I think that at 1.65 has value.
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Marketa Vondrousova to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1,73 with William Hill
2 players in opposite shape. Vondrousova did Final in Budapest recently and has already win 1 match here against Siegemund in straight sets. I watched that match and I liked what I saw form her. She held long rallies and played aggressive in the right moments, her serve worked well and she did some good drop shots (can be a good gun against Daria). Kasatkina recent results are absolutely horrible (obviously she will start winning matches again, but I expect that this won’t occur in this match, especially after firing her coach). Daria did Final the last year here but doesn’t matter so much when you’re without confidence.
Bianca Andreescu to beat Dominika Cibulkova at 1.55 with Marathonbet
Nothing much to say here. Cibulkova has win only one match this year (against Lara Arruabarrena in a 3 set match) in front of the Andreescu win/loss record of 23-3.
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Ryan Harrison (-1.5 Sets) to beat Roberto Carballes at 1.85 with 888
Roberto comes here after playing 4 clay tournaments in South America. He’s a pure claycourter with no more than 50 matches played in this surface in his career. Harrison has a win/loss record of 202-151 and the crowd will be with him.
Andreas Seppi (-2.0 Games) to beat Peter Gojowczyk at 1.71 with Marathonbet
Gojo had physical problems in his last match against Millman (6-0, 6-2) and that was just 1 week ago so I expect that he won’t be at his best here. Seppi won against Gojo recently in Rotterdam like 3 weeks ago.
Radu Albot (-2.5 Games) to beat Marius Copil at 1.72 with Marathonbet
Albot is in the best moment of his career (he’s in a 7 winning streak and won in Delray Beach beating Karlovic, Kyrgios, Johnson, Mckenzie and Evans). He is totally adapted to the court (he has win against Lacko and Krueger in straight sets).
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Ugo Humbert (-2.0 Games) to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.76 with Marathonbet
Ugo is totally adapted here, 2 matches won in straight sets against Zopp (6-3, 6-1) and Wolf (7-5, 7-5). The last 4 tournaments played by Marterer were on clay (his best surface, by far). Ugo has better record on hard outdoor courts
- Grass Cash and four-leaf
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Kirsten Flipkens (+1.5 Sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard at 1.79 with 888
Jessica Pegula (+4.5 Games) to beat Zarina Diyas at 1.74 with 888
Jeremy Chardy (-1.5 Sets) to beat Marcos Giron at 2.00 with 888
Sorry for not reasoning the bets (I have no time). I think Genie and Zarina are the right favorites but not at this level. Chardy is better than Giron, by far so i expect him to win in 2 sets
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Sorry @money44 i have not login till now. Anybody has some thoughts about the McNally-Pliskova (the bad one) match? McNally is in a very good form, anybody think that at 1.65-1.70 has some value?
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Sofia Kenin (-2.0 Games) to beat Yafan Wang at 1.82 with Marathonbet
Both players are playing on their best surface but Kenin is better ranked and has played against tougher opponents. She has win here against Azarenka and Andreescu in her 2 previous rounds while Wang only has played against one real opponent here (Vekic). Wang has no WTA Titles so we don’t know how that can affect her. Kenin won her first WTA title in Hobart this year so probably she can deal with the pressure of playing a final better than Wang.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+3.0 Games) to beat Roger Federer at 1.9 with Marathonbet
Too many hours on court for Tsitsipas and Federer has been playing better and better in each round but I will take the risk anyway because I think Federer is overrated.
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Viktorija Golubic (-2.5 Games) to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo at 1.91 with William Hill
Both players have clay as their best surface but Golubic has a win/loss record of 80-48 on hard outdoors in front of the 58-54 record of Sorribes. Just one month ago Golubic won against Sorribes in the 1st round of the Thailand Open (6-2, 6-4), played on hard outdoors.
- Grass Cash, four-leaf, CzechPunter and 2 others
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7 minutes ago, money44 said:
I don't know much about Teichmann , but I don't think there is any value on the bet @darko08
I know, the 2-0 are very dangerous but there too many reasons to think that Andreescu has to win this comfortably. I also don't know too much about Teichmann (not the kind of player that i follow) but she's a clay player (she has not many matches played on hard courts).
yep.. Struff and Basilashvili were the plays of the day
- Grass Cash and CzechPunter
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3 minutes ago, money44 said:
Kohlschreiber live bet 3.75 odds staked 2 units
Fck.. I was thinking to post Kohls to win at least one set at 2.70 and now i see that the match is 1-1....
Tennis - March 11 - March 17
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
@money44 that match could have won by both players. A lot of upsets in this tournament so I'm gonna try some ones.
Struff to beat Alexander Zverev at 5.00 with 888
Zverev had some health problems in his last match.
Lesia Tsurenko to beat Sabalenka at 3.40 with 888
I know Sabalenka is the favorite but giving her these odds against a player like Tsurenko? I know Tsurenko recent form is not the best but she has a lot of tennis and she can win against Sabalenka if she show that tennis.
Gilles Simon to beat Dominic Thiem at 3.05 with 888
Thiem recent form is horrible. Simon is a hard player to beat and if Thiem is not accurate with his shots we could see him doing a lot of UE.