yossa6133

I can't believe there is no racing this afternoon. With all the all weather meetings you would think the BHA would have the sense to make sure there was one each afternoon in winter.
I'll put up a selection from my all weather system. Last year this system made a profit of 823 points with 565 winners from 5,209 selections.
The criteria this year are :-
Draw > 4
Days since last run > 17
Career starts 2 - 21
Wins in last 10 runs < 3
Today's selection
Kempton 7.30
GOD OF THUNDER

Mike Matusow's pick of the week is the Rams -5.5.
I've taken them -6 @ 10/11.

We start the New Year with 7 terrestrial races on ITV and I'm afraid I've a feeling that a lot of the favourites will be winning. Maybe perm some together in multiple bets. 
Cheltenham 12.55 Just the five line up for this 2M 62 yard novices’ limited handicap chase which with Full Of Light 43lb out of the handicap will only concern the other four. The pick has to be the Messrs Munir and Souede owned top weight Matata who looked one to follow when an easy ten length winner at Ffos Las on his chasing debut back in October from Cruz Control (winner since). The handicapper has had his say and stuck him up 9lb for that effort but he looks progressive and has a solid chance.   MATATA 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365   Musselburgh 1.10 The first of two races shown by the ITV cameras is this 2M 4F class 2 handicap hurdle. Last year’s winner and third Benson and Holmes St George’s should be in the shake up but the one that catches my eye is the Dan Skelton trained bottom weight In This World. This lightly raced five year old is having only his seventh career starts and if able to reproduce his last time out fifth (beaten 2 1/4L) to Go Dante at Cheltenham off of the same handicap mark can go very close under the trainer’s brother Harry who replaces the conditional Tristram Durrell today.   IN THIS WORLD 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Cheltenham 1.30 Five have declared for this class 2 3M 1 1/2F handicap chase where the favourite trained in the Cotswolds by Jonjo O’Neill is Inch House who comes chasing a hat trick of victories following success’s at Newbury over the last two months rising some 17lb in the process. He’s an improver and it would be no shock were he to improve again and get his hat trick up at the main expense of Cloudy Glen who finished ahead of another of his opponents Stumptown in the Ladbroke Trophy last time.   INCH HOUSE 1 point win @ 15/8 William Hill   Cheltenham 2.05 The 2m 4 1/2F Premier Handicap, the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase has attracted a disappointing turn out of just six for this £100,000 guaranteed race. Paul Nicholls’s top weight Stage Star will be hard to beat here having won three of his four starts at the track. A winner of the Turners Chase at the Festival last season he made a winning re-appearance when, despite a major blunder at the last, he ran away with the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November. The handicapper has pushed him up 11lb for that victory but if he is to be a contender for the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase come March time he should be winning this under Harry Cobden.   STAGE STAR 2 points win @ 4/5 bet365   Musselburgh 2.20 A field of nine go to post for this class 2M 4 1/2F handicap chase. The horse that stands out to me here is the Dan Skelton trained, Harry Skelton ridden seven year old Frere D’Armes. He stepped forward for his re-appearance outing at Ascot when back there to run the progressive Boothill to half a length in a valuable 2M 1F handicap chase with the subsequent winner Triple Trade 2 1/2L back in third. Surprisingly the handicapper has only raised him a pound for that effort and with the extra half a mile likely to suit looks every inch the one they all have to beat here.   FRERE D’ARMES 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365   Cheltenham 2.40 A 3M class 2 handicap hurdle is up next where the days best bet runs. Sam Thomas’s Ed Keeper showed improved form when stepping up to three miles for the first time at Ascot 31 days ago and despite a 9lb rise in the weights should be hard to beat today under Sam Twiston-Davies. He looked a staying hurdler going places when booting 5 1/2L clear of Hoe Joly Smoke and even with a 9lb rise can follow up here. Bottom weight Fontana Ellissi ran well on his re-appearance and at a big price is worth a small stakes saver.   ED KEEPER 2 points win @ 3/1 BetVictor FONTANA ELLISSI 1/2 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 123   Cheltenham 3.15 Just four line up for the Grade 2 Dorian Engineering Relkeel Hurdle run over 2M 4 1/2F. The two principals who can battle the finish out are the Henry De Bromhead trained Bob Olinger who bounced back to form at Navan over today’s intermediate trip from 65 and the Nicky Henderson trained Marie’s Rock who may have just needed her re-appearance. She’ll be sharper now and should be hard to beat for the in form Nicky Henderson stable.   MARIES ROCK 1 point win @ 11/8 BetVictor

so did all the punters at the "dog and duck" they all on it also 😀  just feeding the animals then back there for new year party  happy new
year ted and here's to a few winners in 2024       good luck pal

Mike Matusow's pick of the week is the Rams -5.5.
I've taken them -6 @ 10/11.

Hope you’ve had a great afternoon twig hopping, everyone.
Very late start,  been catching up on bulb planting. so much of that lurgy floating around and I seem to have picked up much of it. Off for a bonfire 🔥 next!! 
wolverhampton 1540
The favourite here bolted up by 3.5 lengths eased down last time but it was not a strong race at all. This is an amateur jockeys hands 🙌 and heels 👠 race and totally different rules apply. 
Two horses stand out to me making his first ever start in a class six is
VERONA STAR ⭐️ 
win
( draw data last year’s winning stall)
AWESOME SPIRIT
Each way
Verona Star
On his second run for new yard today. Kept out the back in eye catching fashion, held up and ate up the yards to beat four rivals at the end. That was in a class four off a 60 day break. The movement at the end looked significant to me. His previous return off a long break was over ten times the length 615 days. This followed a debut win under Hollie Doyle for Archie Watson in a class four. Despite the lay off, he managed a very good second on return. Which again suggests he was tenderly ridden latest and visual evidence backs that up. Anyway he now drops massively in class and won his only race pretty much hands and heels as well with barely a reminder on the run in from Hollie Doyle. The same jockey saw him off on last run for yard and to me this one looks prepped for what could turn out to be a routine task after a pipe opening debut. Disregard the opening run as Verona star was held up and never put into the race. This is the first run proper for new yard dropped into class six for first time ever and has an 8 pounds claimer on board who has enjoyed a first win recently.
Awesome Spirit
has bottom weight crucially here and has the lowest draw commensurate to weight too. That won’t have been lost on trainer micheal Appleby at all and many perceive these hands and heels apprentice jockey affairs as a liability, but like bumpers they are necessary on “the learning curve “ but fully exploitable. The favourite could as well bolt up given the advantage he held at the end of his race latest  and that confidence may well stand to him here. 
Awesome  star runs here in this low level affair off a career low mark having started out  handicapping over twelve pounds higher for Micheal Callaghan over in Ireland 🇮🇪 and his connections  probably dreamt of selling him over to Hong Kong and him being ridden by a high class race at Happy Valley,  not as bottom weight in a class six hands and heels at Wolverhampton on a Saturday afternoon….
I hold a lot of stall on draw data as it’s my own system and although stall two won this race last year, my actual draw data horse is
Finn Russell
was on a hat trick two runs back here and ran fifth and then fifth again actually sits ten pounds under his debut handicap mark today and actually ticks a whole lot of boxes… I can’t back them all and while I’d rather he didn’t find his feet here but the two latest runs have not reflected the ability.

Newbury 1.15 The first of five races covered by ITV at Newbury this afternoon is this 2M 92 yard class 3 Handicap Chase. A case can be made for most but it’s the Jeremy Scott trained The Russian Doyen that catches my eye. A course and distance winner three starts back in February 2022 off of a handicap mark a pound higher he probably needed his latest run, his first for 621 days, when finishing a 14 1/2L fourth again over course and distance at the beginning of the month having run well to two out before running out of puff. With that run behind him he should run a nice race with Harry Cobden an interesting jockey booking (he was on board when winning here in February 2022).   THE RUSSIAN DOYEN 1 point win @ 5/1 William Hill   Haydock 1.25 The Betfred Last Fling Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 4 1/2F is an open contest with all six of the competitors holding a chance of sorts. Stakes should be kept to a minimum with possibly top weight Fortescue the one to be with. Henry Daly’s nine year old has slipped to a handicap mark 5lb lower than his last winning one, which came at Ascot in February 2022. He wasn’t disgraced following a 238 day absence when fourth of 10 (beaten 6 1/2L) to Nassalam in the Coral Welsh National Trial Handicap Chase at the beginning of the month. The winner hacked up in the big race earlier in the week and with Hugh Nugent claiming a valuable 3lb can run a big race.   FORTESCUE 1 point win @ 11/2 BetVictor   Newbury 1.50 Just six line up for this 2m 4 1/2F class 2 handicap hurdle. Dan Skelton’s top weight Get A Tonic was very impressive when winning over course and distance at the beginning of the month when making all to win at a seemingly unfancied 28/1 by 7L from Anyharminasking with one of today’s rivals Irish Hill back in 7th and seemingly held here (although he does sport first time blinkers and is 10lb better off at the weights). With similar tactics likely to be employed by Harry Skeleton he can go in again despite a 8lb rise in the weights.   GET A TONIC 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill   Taunton 2.10 This 2M 104 yard listed mares’ novices’ hurdle may be fought out by Harry Derham’s Queens Gamble and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Casa No Mento. It’s hard to split the pair but slight preference is for the latter who is actually officially rated 6lb superior to his rival. Twiston-Davies’s mare is unbeaten over hurdles following easy success’s at Market Rasen and Hereford this season. Assistant trainer Willy Twiston-Davies was very bullish of the horse’s ability going forward stating that she was the only horse able to work with the now retired I Like To Move It. She wouldn’t want the ground to get much softer than it currently is but she can beat the equally promising Queens Gamble.   CASA NO MENTO 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365   Newbury 2.25 A decent sized field of twelve have declared for the Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase which has an open look about it. A case can be made for several especially Kerry Lee’s Atlanta Brave who ran well at Exeter last time but its Shanty Alley who may well represent some each way value here. Trained by Ben Case he is 5lb lower than when running a stormer in this race last year in finishing second, beaten 3/4L by Grumpy Charlie when attempting to make all. He probably needed his latest run at Catterick back in November, his first for 202 days and a further 2lb drop for that run is welcomed. Jack Quinlan takes the ride for the first time and off of a nice mark looks each way value.   SHANTY ALLEY 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234   Taunton 2.45 A tricky five runner handicap hurdle run over just short of three miles is up next with each of the quintet holding a chance of sorts. Harry Derham is making a name for himself in the training ranks and has as good a chance as any with his Game Winner. He has run twice over fences this season without setting the world alight and reverts back to hurdles here in first time cheek pieces. A winning novice hurdler last season he may still have some improvement to come and with Paul O’Bren on top can take this winnable race.   GAME WINNER 1 point win @ 9/4 Betfred   Newbury 3.00 The day’s feature race is the 2M 4 1/2F Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a decent sized field of nine. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the last three years so his Captain Teague (he also saddles Farnoge)has to be respected but it’s the Nicky Henderson trained Willmount that appeals the most. Unbeaten in an Irish point to point and two bumpers when in the care of Neil Mulholland, he made a scintillating debut for his new handler when winning a novice hurdle over the minimum trip in November, coming home 13L clear of his field having jumped slickly. This is a totally different type of race but he oozes class and will be well suited by the extra half a mile today under Nice de Boinville. He can strike here with Captain Teague and Jonjo O’Neill’s Johnnywho live dangers.   WILLMOUNT 2 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor   Newbury 3.35 We conclude racing at Newbury today with this 2M 6 1/2F Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase with eight horses going to post. Jamie Snowden is having a good season with the likes of Ladbroke Trophy winner Datsalrightgino and appears to have a solid chance here with six year old Passing Well. He stepped forward from his chasing debut to win a similar race to this at Lingfield at the end of November by a length from Heva Rose who’s won since. A 3lb rise for that victory may not be enough to stop him from following up in a race that may not take much winning.   PASSING WELL 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365  

Moodofthemoment @ 16/1 Taunton 13:35 - Winner 3 - 1/ 5   Returns £0.00
Neon Moon @ 16/1 Newbury 15:35 - Winner 3 - 1/ 5   Returns £0.00
Shanty Alley @ 15/2 Newbury 14:25 - Winner 4 - 1/ 5   Returns £0.00
Jason The Militant @ 16/1 Haydock 14:35 - Winner 3 - 1/ 5   Return   0.1pt e/w  L15 bog =3pts   2pts win 1.25 Hay  EAST STREET 9/2 bog    Total 5pts invested

Bet 1
 

Traprain Law (1.20) & Young Buster (1.55) (Fergal O'Brien's only runner at Kelso today where he has a 43% win ratio over the last 5 years) worth doubling up at 10/11 & 11/8 with our friends from Stoke-On-Trent bet365 (if you're lucky enough to have an account with them).
Pays just over 7/2.

Leicester 1.12
£25 win single.

A Plus Tard                                                          2 25 Lep/                  1/40th of a pt ew      16/1

I was going to wait till it got a bit higher but then both teams went 2-0 so I saw it through to the end. I picked the teams but not a great deal of science behind it, lady luck worked in my favour this time.
I also had a couple of gos on the roulette and my number came up so another £170 profit.
Over £1,000 profit now so it will be interesting to see if I get the dreaded "our trading team" letter.

Blade Runner 40/1 Bet 365 - 14:50 Chepstow - 6 places - each way
James Du Berlais 33/1 Bet 365 - 15:00 Leopardstown - 6 places - each way
Each way double

3.00 leopard Paddy power chase 
Ontheropes  8.7 33/1 
Fakir dalene.  8.6 20/1 
Amirite.    8.4 12/1 
These three are a bit clear of rest so with limited race interests due to field sizes I'll try 3pt Ew all 3 ....and forecasts all 3 

Chepstow 1.05 Only four have declared for this 2M 3 1/2F class 2 handicap chase with the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk At All a warm favourite now dropping back to a trip that suits him better having possibly failed to stay over three miles at Cheltenham last time. He should run well but at the prices the consistent top weight First Flow may be the value play. He finished a 4L runner up to Boothill at Ascot last time out, form which has been boosted several times since and Kim Bailey’s eleven year old will appreciate any more rain that falls at the Welsh track.   FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill   Kempton 1.20 A nine runner introductory juvenile hurdle which features the well touted Nicky Henderson trained Sir Gino who is already a top priced 12/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham next March. He impressed when winning a listed race on his racecourse debut for his French trainer at Auteuil last April and has subsequently been bought privately by the Donnelly’s and put into training over here with Nicky Henderson. He’s had a wind operation since but the opposition today hardly looks that exacting and he can make a winning British debut at a meeting where his trainer does so well at.   SIR GINO, NICKLE BACK (1.55 Kempton) & BURDETT ROAD (2.10 Chepstow) 2 points win treble 8/15, 4/5 & 4/9 Bet Victor   Chepstow 1.40 A class 2 2M 7F 131 yard handicap hurdle is up next with a field of eight where I feel there is an excellent each way bet to get stuck into. Many of these can be crabbed for one reason or another but the one who appeals is the Tim Vaughan trained Bells Of Peterboro. He showed up nicely in two handicap chases on his first two starts this season over fences but was disappointing when reverting to hurdles last time but its best to forgive him that run now in a first time visor as he has such a great record in this very race and it may well be that he has been trained for this race. He ran out a very easy 22L winner of this race two years off of a handicap mark 3lb higher than todays ‘s as well as finishing a creditable third in this contest a year ago. He’s well worth chancing under Alan Johns who knows him so well.   BELLS OF PETERBORO 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 123   Kempton 1.55 A small field of just four line up for the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase run over two miles. The one to beat is the Sarah Humphrey trained Nickle Back who followed up two emphatic chase victories at Warwick and Stratford from the front by running a highly creditable 6 1/2L second to the smart Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at Newbury at the beginning of the month. He’s an exuberant front runner who will more than likely set out in front and hopefully run the race out of his three rivals, the best of which may well be Master Chewy.   Chepstow 2.10 The 2M grade 2 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle has only attracted six runners with a very warm favourite in James Owen’s unbeaten juvenile hurdler Burdett Road. He has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his impressive wins at Huntingdon and in grade 2 company at Cheltenham under today’s rider Harry Cobden. He should win this the with utmost of ease all be it at prohibitive odds.   Kempton 2.30 The 2M Desert Orchid Chase has Grade 2 status and for the first time this year is a limited handicap which has attracted six runners. Harry Fry’s Boothill arrives in top form chasing a hat trick of two mile handicap chase wins following a brace of wins at Ascot this season. He may have been a bit fortunate to oblige last time as Saint Segal was a length ahead when tumbling at the last. Only 3lb higher in the weights now he appeals as the one to beat although Joe Tizzard’s Elixir De Nutz, who is also chasing a hat trick, and Nube Negra, who will appreciate the drying ground look dangers.   BOOTHILL 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor   Chepstow 2.50 The 2023 renewal of the 3M 6 1/F Coral Welsh Grand National has attracted a maximum field of twenty dye in the wool stayers. Many have claims including the top weight Iwilldoit who won the race two years ago off of bottom weight but is now 13lb higher in the weights. The trial winner Nassalam is another with a shout although he has to prove his stamina. The race looks wide open and I’ll take a rank outsider to run well at a massive price with extra places. David Pipe’s Only The Bold looked a stayer going places last year when bolting up at Bangor and Hereford but has flopped three times since, twice this year back over hurdles so its impossible to be too confident about his chances but if he can get himself back to the form he showed last year he can give his trainer David Pipe his first win in a race that his father Martin did so well in.   ONLY THE BOLD 1 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456   Kempton 3.09 A valuable 3M class 2 Handicap Chase is up next with eight going to post. The form horse is arguably the top weight Tea Clipper who should go well here following two decent efforts in 3M handicap chases this winter when runner up at Chepstow and Ascot. He is only a pound higher than his latest run and there appears little depth to this contest. The bottom weight Strictlyadancer looks interesting but his trainer Christian Williams is badly out of sorts at present and can’t be fancied until he’s shows some improvement in his form.   TEA CLIPPER 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365    

Dagenham & Redbridge v Eastleigh Granted Eastleigh have not always been great away from home this season, but Dagenham continue to put some very limp performances in at home and as I highlighted in Saturday's preview even lost to Wealdstone in their last home game. I'm sure Paul McCallum will be keen to get on the scoresheet given he used to be at Dagenham and he continues to be in fine form. I'd be even more confident if Eastleigh had been better on their travels, but the price makes little sense to me and looks the best bet of Boxing Day.   Ebbsfleet v Bromley Bromley should have won with ease last night, but a mix of good defending and not being clinical enough cost them. Play like that again and they should eat an Ebbsfleet side who are struggling for wins. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but enough for me to play.   Dover v Aveley Granted Dover have won just once all season and they have picked up 11 draws, but I am happy to continue opposing Aveley and Dover are surely going to edge a game at some point given how close they are from gaining the 3 points.   Havant & Waterlooville v Farnborough Farnborough have only won once away all season and they were very lucky to get 3 points on Saturday against Braintree. Their goal was a penalty and they created little else whereas Braintree's xG was 2.05. Havant were unfortunate not to pick something up at Truro as it was a 30 yard wonder strike which proved to be the only goal of the game. Back at home I think they can get back to winning ways.   Torquay v Truro Torquay had a few players missing on Saturday and were poor losing at Chelmsford. Their home form has been strong to be fair and they might well bounce back, but with Truro in picking up wins I will take a chance that they can pull off a victory.   Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Bromley 1pt @ 23/20 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to Evs) Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 2/1 and take up to 6/4) Havant 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 13/8 and take up to 11/10) Truro 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5)   Prices from 3pm Christmas Eve   Eastleigh 2pts @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Bromley 1pt @ 23/20 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to Evs) Dover 1pt @ 15/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 2/1 and take up to 6/4) Havant 2pts @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Skybet are 13/8 and take up to 11/10) Truro 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5)

Taken Coventry to beat the improving Sheffield Wednesday (4/5 Bet365).Coventry have played better than their league position suggests and they are just starting to take more of their chances now, can still see them sneaking into the playoffs.

Taken Coventry to beat the improving Sheffield Wednesday (4/5 Bet365).Coventry have played better than their league position suggests and they are just starting to take more of their chances now, can still see them sneaking into the playoffs.

Il Est Francais, wow that was awesome.

Had main bets(mb) on 1245 Russian ruler who I believe is still running and 1305 Fenner Glory who is taking up gymnastics now I believe, but thankfully had both winners (1245 via free bet) and 1305 bog 1305 via coral bet and get free bet.
 

Russian Ruler 12:45 Kempton (4/1). Caught the eye finishing strongly on chase debut at Newbury after getting outpaced. Step up to 2m 4f should be ideal and has a nice racing weight of 11-2 and gets useful 8lbs from the top 3.
Also have a go at the forecast seeing as it's Christmas. General Medrado did nothing wrong when runner up to a useful one at Plumpton and Blow Your Wad did as well as could be expected against Le Patron at Sandown. They can finish 2nd and 3rd, forecast pays 90/1 with Bet365
0.75pts win @4/1
0.25pts forecast @ 90/1
 
Shocking run, pulled up entering the straight.
 
P/L: +2.1pts

Russian Ruler 12:45 Kempton (4/1). Caught the eye finishing strongly on chase debut at Newbury after getting outpaced. Step up to 2m 4f should be ideal and has a nice racing weight of 11-2 and gets useful 8lbs from the top 3.
Also have a go at the forecast seeing as it's Christmas. General Medrado did nothing wrong when runner up to a useful one at Plumpton and Blow Your Wad did as well as could be expected against Le Patron at Sandown. They can finish 2nd and 3rd, forecast pays 90/1 with Bet365
0.75pts win @4/1
0.25pts forecast @ 90/1
 
Shocking run, pulled up entering the straight.
 
P/L: +2.1pts

Russian Ruler 12:45 Kempton (4/1). Caught the eye finishing strongly on chase debut at Newbury after getting outpaced. Step up to 2m 4f should be ideal and has a nice racing weight of 11-2 and gets useful 8lbs from the top 3.
Also have a go at the forecast seeing as it's Christmas. General Medrado did nothing wrong when runner up to a useful one at Plumpton and Blow Your Wad did as well as could be expected against Le Patron at Sandown. They can finish 2nd and 3rd, forecast pays 90/1 with Bet365
0.75pts win @4/1
0.25pts forecast @ 90/1
 
Shocking run, pulled up entering the straight.
 
P/L: +2.1pts

The Vikings QB kept throwing the ball to the Lions...I'm not an expert, but that seems sub optimal.