Another good day last Saturday with 4 of the 7 winning although there were a couple of very close misses with Slough and Welling. On the other side of the coin though Hartley Witney scored a very late winner. I have 6 bets for Saturday.
Maidenhead v Maidstone (National League)
A bit of a strange choice for a live game by BT Sport this, but I think the away team offer value. I don't think either team are that good and can see both being involved in a relegation scrap, but I do think that Maidstone have shown more than their hosts so far this season. Maidenhead have only got 1 point so far and that was in a draw against Dagenham who also have only picked up a point. That sums both teams up for me and Maidenhead were again comfortably beaten by Hartlepool on Saturday 2-1. I took on Maidstone last week, but they did well to see off an in form Barrow 1-0 and they managed to beat Dagenham earlier in the season as well as picking up a point against Hartlepool. For me Maidstone have the edge here and I am surprised they are as big as 57/25 for this. It probably wont be a classic, but hopefully we can come away with a profit.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Hartlepool (National League)
Ironically given these two teams feature heavily in the above preview they also play each other this weekend and again I fancy the away team. It isn't a great surprise to see Dagenham struggling given they have no money and I have my doubts about manager Peter Taylor. They will do well to stay up this season whereas Hartlepool should really be looking at trying to get into the play-offs. They have had a frustrating start, but they have only lost one of their first five games (to Ebbsfleet) so it hasn't been a total disaster. They also hadn't won until that win over Maidenhead last weekend though which will disappoint the fans. They do however look a better side than their hosts and I would make them favourites for this so the 191/100 with Marathon makes plenty of appeal.
Ebbsfleet v Aldershot (National League)
Aldershot look a long way from the teams who reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons. They have only scored twice this term and both of those came in their only victory against Dagenham. I am sure Gary Waddock will turn it around, but it may take a bit longer yet and I think Ebbsfleet can beat them on Saturday. I put Ebbsfleet up last week and they beat Barnet 3-0 and Barnet have been every bit as disappointing as Aldershot. Ebbsfleet have lost their two home games so far, but they came against Chesterfield and Sutton and they probably deserved something from both matches. This match should be easier and on current form you would make them odds on to win this so the 11/10 with Betfred is fair enough.
Havant & Waterlooville v Salford (National League)
Regular readers will know it is fairly rare to look outside of the win/draw/win market and I don't often tip up at odds on either. I am however doing both with this game. I did have Havant down on my shortlist to back as they can score goals and Salford still look ropey at the back. However I thought Salford would be around 11/10 and they aren't so it makes it a no bet for me on that side of things. What does appeal though is over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with Marathon. Both teams have scored in all of Salford's games so far and they look rather suspect in defence at the moment. 3 of their games have finished 2-1 and they were the right side of a 5 goal thriller against Chesterfield last week. Havant on the other hand have been involved in two 4-3 games the last twice as well as a 3-0 defeat on the opening day of the season. Both sides have goals in them and both sides concede for fun thus I think the over 2.5 goals price should be shorter (cue a goalless draw!).
Blyth Spartans v Chorley (National League North)
Chorley are now favourites for the title and I am not surprised.They have been really impressive so far winning 5/5 and they are yet to concede a goal. Apart from beating Chester 8-1 Blyth have really struggled this season and have only picked up a point from their other 4 games. They lost 3-1 at Alfreton last week and they have a bit of an injury crisis in defence at the moment. Given Chorley's defence you would think 1 would be enough and Blyth have already conceded 10 goals this season. 133/100 with Marathon looks a very attractive bet.
Wealdstone v Concord (National League South)
Probably the game of the day in the division and although the Concord price has come in I still think the current price is attractive enough. Sportingbet are 31/10 and then Bet365 are 14/5. Obviously we are talking about two really good sides and the home side did us a big favour last week when beating Dartford 3-0. Concord though have won 4 and drawn 1 of their five games and that draw came against Billericay. It obviously is no gimmie, but Concord should be more like 15/8 so in a game they are more than capable of winning I have to back them.
Maidstone 1pt @ 57/25 with Marathon
Hartlepool 1.5pts @ 191/100 with Marathon
Ebbsfleet 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
Havant v Salford over 2.5 goals 2.5pts @ 5/6 with Marathon
Chorely 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Concord 1pt @ 31/10 with Sportingbet
Cheers. A pleasing afternoon which wasn't far away from being an excellent afternoon as the two losing bets were both in front until fairly late on in their games.
Tuesday was disappointing and I think we were a little unlucky not to pick up another couple of winners with the performances some of the picks put in. I am avoiding the National League this weekend. Nothing really stands out and there have been some strange results over the first couple of weekend's. Salford have not started well and are back out to 7/2 and can be backed at over 2/1 to beat Sutton tomorrow which was I price you wouldn't have predicted a week ago. I have 5 bets though and 3 of the 4 Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday.
Guiseley v AFC Telford
The away side have started the season very strongly beating Southport 1-0 on the opening day and then getting a 0-0 draw at Kidderminster on Tuesday. They look set for a better season than last time around and I think they look a big price at 5/2 (188bet) to win this. The home side have lost both their opening two games and I think Marcus Bignot has got a very tough task to turn the relegated side around. If Telford can continue their good form from their first two games they have a decent chance of winning this.
Nuneaton v Chorley
I am going to oppose Nuneaton again on Saturday. It didn't quite pay off on Tuesday night as they held Hereford to a 0-0 draw, but Chorley have started the season in really strong fashion. An opening day victory over York was backed up when the beat Guiseley on Tuesday. They weren't far away from being one of my picks to win the league so I am not surprised they have got off to a flying start and I would make them favourites to win this. The 2/1 with Marathon on an away win makes plenty of appeal.
Hampton & Richmond v Bath City
I have been in Devon for a few days and have picked up the local paper so have been reading a fair bit about Torquay and all the goings on at Truro. Bath may have lost to Torquay 1-0 on Tuesday night, but even the Torquay manager and one of the players suggested they had been fortuante to pick up the 3 points as Bath had played really well. They will surely get their first win of the season on the board sooner rather than later and this game could well be it. Hampton pushed Hemel closer than I thought they would on Tuesday, but thankfully for us Hemel picked up the three points. I certainly think Bath have the stronger squad and they look over priced at 11/5 with Bet365.
Weston-Super-Mare v St Albans
The home side have started the season poorly. A 4-1 defeat to Wealdstone was followed up by a 1-1 against Truro on Tuesday night. Before Tuesday's game Truro's management team told the players they were quitting and although the players might have wanted to put in a performance for them the fact Weston couldn't take full advatange says a lot to me. They don't look in great defensive shape at all based on their first two games and St Albans should be able to punish them. A 3-2 win on the opening day to Hungerford was a fair effort and then they had a man sent off when a goal up at Woking on Tuesday and ended up losing 2-1. This game could well be easier than either of them so I will be backing them at 163/100 with Marathon.
Bishops Stortford v Dorking
Oddschecker is a mess as regards for Step 3 prices at the moment so I have only looked at Marathon's prices as chances are they will be biggest anyway. Dorking have been a big market mover in the title market which I think is more than down to the fact I have put them up and I think the vibes are really strong around the club this season that they can go very close. Now they do have a few injuries going into this game, but I think they have some strength in depth and they should still have too much for the home side. As you know I don't pay too much attention to friendly results but the home side lost all 7 of theirs and only scored twice. I am happy to take the 61/50 about the away side getting off to a strong start.
AFC Telford 1pt @ 5/2 with 188bet
Chorley 1pt @ 2/1 with Marathon
Bath 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365
St Albans 1pt @ 163/100 with Marathon
Dorking 2pts @ 61/50 with Marathon
Less than a week to go until the start of the season and finally I have completed my ante-post look at the various leagues. The last two seasons have both seen over 20pts profit so hopefully at the very least that will be matched and it would be nice to go even better. Hopefully you have already got some nice prices on Billericay and Concord when I put them up a couple of weeks ago. I suspect some of these prices won't last either.
National League
Only one place to start and that is with Salford who you will struggle to get over 2/1 about now. That is a crazy price to win this league and anyone backing them now needs their head read in my view. If you are sitting on bet at the bigger prices then you will certainly have the value, but the big question is will they actually win the title? I don’t think they will. For me they have the wrong manager. John Askey was rumoured as a possible for the job and he would have been a much better choice than Graham Alexander in my view. It has been proven time and time again in this league that you need to know your Non-League football yet the Class of 92 have gone for someone who hasn’t been near a Non-League club in his career until this point. He could be in for a big shock as others have been in the past. As for the signings most of them do have Non-League experience so that is a good thing for them although despite what the players say they are clearly there for the money. You don’t drop down from League 1 back into Non-League football if you aren’t getting paid more cash. As for Adam Rooney to me it seems crazy that he would turn down playing big games against Celtic and Rangers to play Solihull Moors! Money doesn’t always work in this league as Forest Green proved and they had to go up via the play-offs in the end. No promoted club has gone straight up either and again Fleetwood could only make the play-offs in their first season. Chances are Salford are spending more money than either of those two, but it is impossible to know for certain. There is obviously a chance they could walk away with it, but for me as good as their squad is it doesn’t warrant the current stupid price and I am more than happy to look elsewhere.
Chesterfield are the only other team in single figures and getting Martin Allen in as manager is a good move. He has made some decent enough signings although they were on a transfer embargo whilst a failed takeover was being discussed. That concerns me as I think they are a club who need the extra money a takeover would have brought. They have suffered a double relegation and it might just take a bit of time for Allen to change things around especially if he wasn’t able to bring in more players because of the embargo. Fans will want the play-offs, but I wonder if they might just miss out this season.
Leyton Orient improved massively under Justin Edinburgh and as I said at the time it was a really good choice of manager for the club. Edinburgh cut his managerial teeth in Non-League and had plenty of success. He turned around a side who were in a relegation battle at the time and keeping Macauley Bonne is huge for them. They were on my shortlist and I was tempted to back them, but I just wonder about the strength in depth in the squad and they look more play-off contenders than title contenders for me at the moment.
Gary Waddock has had to rebuild again at Aldershot although as we know that doesn’t mean they won’t make it a hat-trick of play-off appearances since Waddock came back. Again they were on my shortlist as I have full faith in Waddock putting together a squad capable of being in contention at the top of the table, but to me they just lack that little bit extra you need to win the title.
Wrexham should have been in the play-offs last year and I am certain they would have been if Darren Keates had remained in charge instead of going to Walsall. As soon as he left they really struggled and in the end missed out on a play-off berth. Even when Keates was still in charge they drew too many games and a lack of a goal scorer was a big reason for that. They have gone with rookie manager Sam Ricketts and he has certainly tried to rectify the problem of a lack of goals. For me it has to be a watching brief with them as there is too much guesswork involved about if they can mount a title challenge.
Sutton and Boreham Wood were both surprise play-off teams last season especially the latter. Sutton are a bigger price than they were last season when they ended up finishing 3rd, but I can’t see them repeating that feat. Wood are really going to miss Bruno Andrade and he really was the only player who caused Tranmere any problems in the Play-Off Final. I think they will slip back into mid-table this time around. I tipped Dover to go down last term, but I really should have known better given how well Chris Kinnear has done there. He has had to rebuild again, but he will surely have them nearer the top than the bottom. Hartlepool are interesting with Jeff Stelling now heavily involved in the club. They have made some interesting signings and they should certainly do better than last time around. They weren’t quite on my shortlist, but I will certainly be keeping a close eye on them.
So for me at the prices I am happy to take 3 e/w in the hope that at the very least one of them hit the frame. The first one is Barnet. Getting John Still in as manger was a superb appointment and I have been really impressed with the signings he has made over the summer. Losing John Akinde was a big blow, but they look strong all over the park and they will basically have a new player in Dave Tarpey. He got injured in his 2nd game at the club and is only just on his way back. He proved in less than a month at Maidenhead last season that he was up to the task of scoring plenty of goals at this level and fingers crossed he can get back to peak form. I think they have a good chance of going straight back up.
AFC Fylde are the other main pick. They might not have as much money as Salford, but they still signed Ryan Croasdale for £50k over the summer which again proves they are big spenders at this level. They looked like they were going to get nowhere near the play-offs, but they went on an incredible run of form once they got used to the division and fully deserved their spot in the play-offs. That was a bridge too far last time around, but they look stronger this season and keeping hold of Danny Rowe who will no doubt score 20+ goals again is a big plus to their chances. Everything points to them being capable of at least a top 3 finish this time around.
The other team are another side who were promoted in 2016 and also reached the play-offs last season Ebbsfleet. They didn’t quite have the consistency all the way through the season to challenge for the title last term, but the squad looks to have evolved nicely over the summer and like Fylde they should be able to improve on their showing last season. They aren’t short of cash either so they have the capability of strengthening if needed.
I always like getting involved in the relegation market and although as mentioned above I did tip Dover last year I also put up Woking which continues a good run on this front. Gateshead head the betting and it is easy to see why as they have had to go part-time and cut the budget. They have however also just been taken over so there could be some cash coming at some point so I wouldn’t want to get involved at the odds. Mark Yates did a great job to keep Solihull Moors up last season and that earned him a move to Macclesfield. Tim Flowers who joined at the same time as Yates has now taken over. His managerial career so far is poor, but they have a pretty decent looking squad and if Flowers has improved since he was last in charge of a football club then I think they will survive. Barrow look set to struggle. They were lucky to stay up last season and they might not be so fortunate this time around. Dagenham & Redbridge were tempting. It has been well publicised about how bad things are for them off the pitch and I am not sure getting Peter Taylor in as manger was a good move. As much as I don’t pay close attention to pre season friendlies, Dagenham have actually done pretty well in them so maybe they might be capable of surviving. Havant & Waterlooville won a really weak National League South last season, but Lee Bradbury has made some really good signings and they could actually surprise a few people this season. However the team who also came up via that league might not be so lucky. Braintree snuck into the play-offs by finishing 6th and they were 17 points behind Havant. They don’t look any stronger than last season to me and I think they will really struggle. I put them up a couple of years ago when they were relegated and they look a good bet to me to go straight back down. I will also back them to finish bottom with Skybet as I think they go into the season with the weakest squad in the league.
National League North
This looks wide open this season with quite a few teams seemingly going for promotion. Stockport head the betting and they probably do look to have their best chance of gaining promotion this time around. I think they will have to have another go via the play-offs though. Chester seem to have steadied themselves after relegation and have done well to get the Salford management duo in. Even so they nearly went bust and as much as they look to have built a decent side they don’t strike me as great value to land the title. York were really disappointing last season when I put them up over Salford. They look fairly strong, but I can see them doing a Stockport and find it pretty tough to get out of this division. Brackley did really well last season finishing 3rd and winning the FA Trophy. I’m not sure they will match that this time around, but they will be in play-off contention. Hereford have had 3 promotions now since reforming and will surely be in and around the play-offs, but I can’t have them as being potential winners. Kidderminster are as short as 8/1 which seems skinny although again they will surely be in and around the play-offs. Chorely always go well and should again. Spennymoor would have been in the play-offs last term if it wasn’t for a big backlog of fixtures and I am sure they can be up there again. Darlington look primed to do better than last season as well and Altrincham should do well after promotion.
I have mentioned a lot of clubs there which shows how open it is, but I have decided to back three. Southport are the main bet. Liam Watson has won this league twice (once with Southport) so he knows exactly what it takes and I really like the squad he has built. They had a bizarre season last year going from being unbeatable, to not being able to win, back to being unbeatable before struggling again. They clearly mean business this time around and I think they will go very close.
Boston weren’t really on my radar until I noticed how well they had signed over the summer and their front line looks really impressive. Again it seems like they mean business and they look set to have a proper promotion push this season.
I put up Alfreton last season and they were pretty rubbish to be fair. However this time around they have Billy Heath as manager and he certainly knows what it takes to get out of this division. He has got players in who he knows well and also know what it takes to get out of this league. At 25/1 I can’t resist having a small play on them e/w in what looks a wide open league.
National League South
Now I usually wait until the week before the leagues start before I put my preview up, but this division I had two clear teams that I wanted to back (I may add a 3rd nearer the start of the season) and as a few more bookies have gone up with prices, and good ones at that, I am starting my tips a little earlier than usual. Now the 10/1 with BetVictor did not last long once I put it up this morning, but the 8/1 with Betway is still there to take at the time of writing. Now either Betway are happy to stand it for a few quid or the people who follow me don't have Betway accounts! I was in a bit of shock when I saw BetVictor go 10/1 because I was expecting bookies to be really cautious in pricing up Billericay. I thought we would see no bigger than 5/2 and in which case I would have looked to have taken them on, but at the prices they are I have to back them. First and key thing is that Tamplin is no longer manager so hopefully he will stay in the background. I certainly think he realised he was getting in the way during their massive dip in form and I don't think it was a coincidence that once he wasn't around performances improved a hell of a lot. Everyone was expecting them to walk away with the league last season and fair play to Dulwich for pushing them so close. The other issue last term though was the fact they over stretched themselves with cup runs and winning two of them and of course the bad weather which meant a huge backlog in fixtures. This time around they won't have a league cup to play, you would hope they don't take the County Cup so seriously and surely the weather can't be as bad as last season. Tamplin has gone on record saying the wage budget has been cut for this season as he doesn't have to offer so much money to players to play for the team. I also think there will be less players in the squad this time around which will also bring the cost down. The budget though is still massive for the division and there is little doubt in my mind that they have the best squad. Jake Robinson who scored over 50 goals for them last season is a proven scorer at this level having got 24 in the league for Hemel Hempstead the season before in just 30 games. Mosses Emmanuel has been added and he is proven in the National League and he will score plenty at this level. They have added well in other areas of the pitch as well and there is plenty of experience in the team not only at this level but above as well.
Last season they proved on their cup runs that they can beat teams at this level and they beat a team in Harrogate who of course won promotion last season so that just went to show that they had the basis of a team who could already battle it out at the right end of the table at Step 2. This division was not very strong at all last season and although it might be a bit stronger this time around I think their squad last season would have been in the play-offs and this stronger side should be capable of winning the title. I think at the very least they will be in the top 3 though and at the price they look a great e/w bet. 5/1 and 11/2 is available with other bookies and I still rate that a good price. Obviously there is one concern with backing them and that is if anything should happen to Tamplin. I certainly can't see him getting bored if they are contending for the title and anything that might happen off the pitch is a bigger worry. At the end of the day though I think it is pointless second guessing anything and going on the facts we have now and that is they look to have the best squad in the league.
I will add to this preview when I write the full one in a couple of weeks and I will talk about some of the other sides who look contenders, but there is one other team who I am going to put up as a bet now because 25/1 (William Hill and BetVictor) is way too big a price. I am staying in Essex as well as Concord are the team in question. They were in a relegation battle last time around and only finished 17th so it might seem odd to want to back them to be in promotion contention this time around, but they have made plenty of statements of intent since the season finished. First of all they got Sammy Moore and Jack Midson in as manager and assistant manager from Leatherhead. They of course had great success there last season and the backlog in fixtures due to the weather and FA Cup run meant they just missed the play-offs. They were quick to announce signings as well and they were pretty impressive and you also have the management team who should be more than capable of still being able to hold their own at this level. Betway are only 14/1 and that would still be on the right side of value so the 25s has to be taken.
Not surprisingly since writing the above Billericay have been massive movers and the team looks even stronger than it did when I put them up. The 25s has gone on Concord as well although I would still be happy to take the 20’s at the moment.
Dartford should probably have won the league last season and might be regretting not going up when the league appeared to be the weakest it ever has been. They should be capable of going well again, but with a new manager in charge I think it will be more a play-off bid than a title one. Chelmsford are always there or thereabouts and will no doubt be bang in the play-off hunt once again. One season they will surely go up although if it is to be this year I think it will have to be via the play-offs, but a top 3 placing is certainly within their compass. Woking have done well I think to get Alan Dowson in as manager and he has made some good signings I think. The Woking fans have had little to cheer in the last couple of seasons and they should certainly be winning more games this season. Dowson of course did a fantastic job to get to the play-off final last term with Hampton & Richmond and although Gary McCann deserves a chance to manager at this level I find it hard to see them matching last season’s efforts. Torquay were the other relegated side and like Woking their fans have had little to cheer in recent seasons. I have to say though I don’t really fancy them at all and I think they are shorter in the betting than they should be. Bath City seem to be giving it a go this season and getting John Mills from Hereford looks a very shrewd bit of business. If you gave me a 4th pick it would be them and they should be capable of having their best season for a while.
I put up Hemel and St Albans last season and both probably should have finished higher than they did. Both should go well again and although they won’t be carrying my money I think they should both be in the play-off mix. Wealdstone are a team who have flattered to deceive in the league a bit, but they again look to have a decent side on paper. It will be interesting to see how promoted teams Dulwich and Slough get on. Dulwich will no doubt be very easy on the eye to watch, but being away from Champion Hill and all the off field issues will stop them being play-off contenders for me, but it is great to see them finally reach this level. Chippenham appear to have strengthened and they might be dark horses to go well.
The other tip though is going to be Welling. Manager Steve King isn’t to everyone’s taste, but his record is really good and he has won this league before. I thought the job he did at Whitehawk last season was incredible as he nearly kept them up and they didn’t win a game until New Years Day. Indeed I think I am right in saying that in 2018 alone Whitehawk were 3rd in the table. I thought it was a good move from Welling to get him in as manger and I like the signings he has made. 20/1 is available with every bookie who has the league priced up except Betway who are only 14’s and I would probably have them a shade shorter than that.
Evo-Stik League South Premier
If you aren’t aware we now have an extra league at Step 3 which means there are now 4 leagues to look at. What that means are fewer sides in each division and in my view it also means that the leagues won’t have too much depth to them. The weakest of them to me looks like being this league and it is one of the reasons why Weymouth are one of my stronger ante-post bets. In the end Hereford won the Evo-Stik Southern Premier fairly easily, but Kettering, Kings Lynn, Slough and Weymouth were all just behind and they in turn were miles clear of the rest. Weymouth won’t have any of those 4 to worry about this season and to me it gives them the perfect opportunity to start making their way back up the pyramid. The squad looks no weaker than last season and that may well be enough to see them take the title. The two biggest dangers for me are Taunton and Salisbury. Taunton won their league by 19 points last season and were only defeated once. There is no reason why they can’t go well again after that superb season. Salisbury were the team they beat into 2nd and I just can’t understand why they are shorter than Taunton in the betting. I’m guessing they have been priced on name and Taunton should be shorter. I do want Salisbury covered however because I do think they under-performed a bit last season and in a weak league they should go close as well.
Gosport are a stupidly short price in my view. They were awful last season and as much as they probably knew they had to do very little to stay up I just don’t see how they can improve anywhere near enough to be involved at the other end of the table. It will be interesting to see how Craig McAllister and Matt Tubbs get on there, but they are priced up based on those two names and they should be more than double the price they are. Hendon were defeated on penalties in the Bostik Premier Play-Off Final by Dulwich, but they have lost Gary McCann as manager and I think it will be at least a season of rebuilding especially in a new league. Poole have come down from the National League South and they will be hoping to be in the play-off hunt at the very least and Staines should be as well. Outside of that and it is hard to see anyone having much of an impact and I think Weymouth should be a bit shorter in the betting than they are.
Evo-Stik League Central Premier
Kettering and Kings Lynn have ended up in this league and not surprisingly are at the head of the market and not surprisingly can barely be separated. To be honest I can’t really separate them either and at the prices I am happy to back them both. Both teams look to have evolved nicely and should be capable of backing up last season’s efforts. If pushed I would just favour Kettering as Kings Lynn have a new manager, but that would really be my only reason. Tamworth should be up their challenging after relegation last season. They have recruited well and although I am not backing them myself I wouldn’t put anyone off if they did fancy them. Stourbridge under performed last season although they had some big losses last summer after a good season before that. They could easily improve and be in the hunt this time around. AFC Rushden & Diamonds are near the head of the market, but for me that is more on name than anything else and they will be more play-off hopefuls than title contenders.
There are two I like e/w at double figure prices. Leiston have always gone well in the Bostik Premier and although this is a new league for them they should be capable of going well in this league and wouldn’t have to do too much more to be in with a chance of a top 3 finish. At an even bigger price Rushall Olympic look over priced to me. They finished last season really strongly under Liam McDonald and they should be able to build on that this season. If they do then they can be top 3 contenders.
Bostik Premier
Either I have got this league completely wrong or the bookies have because 3 of my 4 bets are at huge prices. I have had Kingstonian on my mind to back for this league since May. The reason was they were making some really impressive early signings that signalled their intent of going for the title this season. Last season they treaded water a bit, but after they couldn’t get in the play-offs and they were always safe from relegation as only one team went down, I think they eased off and had this season in mind. With no Billericay or Dulwich around aiming for the title is a realistic ambition for a team like Kingstonian. I was expecting the bookies to have noticed their signings and put them in the front 5 in the betting. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw 33/1 with Bet365. That price is stupid for the level of quality in their squad. Now the one slight concern is at the time of writing their pre-season form has been pretty poor and ideally you would want to see better, but as I have said elsewhere I don’t pay too much attention to pre-season form as it really doesn’t count for an awful lot once the season starts. As I have seen one manager say why would you want your squad to peak in July when you want to be getting to your peak later in the season. The 33s has gone already but the 20/1 on offer is still a very good price
Two others I like at massive prices are Enfield and Dorking. Enfield signing Billy Bricknell from Billericay is a superb signing and although they were disappointing last season they did finish in the play-offs the season before and that will surely be there aim at the very least again. Dorking have finally moved to their new ground and they seem to be showing plenty of ambition about making a promotion bid this season. They will want to go well to attract the fans and they should be capable of improving from last season.
AFC Hornchurch have been installed as favourites which I find a bit surprising. I know they got over 100 points last season, but I would make them a bit bigger myself. Relegated sides Bognor Regis and Whitehawk are behind them, but I can’t have either. Bognor look a side in transition and were poor last season. If Steve King had remained at Whitehawk then I would have been all over them, but he hasn’t and I can’t have them given the players that have left. Folkestone need to prove they are more than one season wonders after a superb 3rd place last year, but they might well be able to do that. Carshalton, Lewes and Haringey are other promoted sides that near the top of the betting and might be capable of doing well. The one team near the head of the betting who I am betting though is Margate. They drew too many games last season and if they can turn some of them into victories then they should go very close to winning the title. I would probably have them at the top of the market so a double figure price looks a solid e/w bet.
Evo-Stik Northern Premier
So the final league to take a look at and there is every chance it could be between two promoted sides who both have cash to spend. South Shields are pretty short at 3/1, but for very good reason. They are a rare North East side who have shown the ambition to rise up through the pyramid and they are being well backed off the pitch to do just that. They will be hard to beat, but Basford are also well backed off the field and I am surprised they are available at a double figure price. They looked like they might go through the season unbeaten at one stage and although they ended up losing 4 the league was won well before the season’s end. They certainly should not be underestimated. Finally I am going to also cover Gainsborough Trinity who have come from the other direction. Lee Sinnott wasn’t able to keep them up, but he has been a superb manager since he started at Farsely back in 2003 and their forward line looks really impressive for the level. Speaking of Farsley they could go well and I wouldn’t totally write off the likes of Warrington, Workington and Scarborough either. However I really do think the winner will come from one of the 3 tips.
National League
Barnet 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365/Ladbrokes/Coral/Paddy Power/Betway/BetVictor
AFC Fylde 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Paddy Power
Ebbsfleet 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill
Braintree to be relegated 2pts @ 7/4 with 188bet/BetVictor
Braintree to finish bottom 1pt @ 13/2 with Skybet
National League South
Billericay 1.5pts e/w at 10/1 with BetVictor (already advised)
Concord Rangers 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill & BetVictor (already advised)
Welling 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
National League North
Southport 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365/Betfred
Boston United 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Alfreton 0.5pts @ 25/1 with Betway
Bostik Premier
Kingstonian 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
Margate 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Betway
Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365
Dorking 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
Evo-Stik League Central Premier
Kettering 1pt @ 6/1 with Betway
Kings Lynn 1pt @ 13/2 with Betway
Leiston 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Betway
Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
Evo-Stik League Southern Premier
Weymouth 2pts @ 13/2 with Bet365
Salisbury 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365/Betway
Taunton 0.5pts e/w @ 18/1 with Bet365
Evo-Stik League Northern Premier
South Shields 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365/Betway
Basford 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
Gainsborough Trinity 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365
Finally we get to the start of the new season and looking forward to it being another profitable one. The last two season's especially have been very good and it would be nice to continue that into this one. Obviously being the first week it is going to be minimum stakes only as we start to feel our way into the season, but I do think there is value to be had. Certainly some people have already got some nice value on Alfreton who were amazingly over 3/1 to beat Kidderminster at home. Not exactly a gimmie, but the price was so wrong I thought it was an error. I didn't think it would go so left it alone and now at the time of writing Alfreton are pushing for favouritism so I certainly got that one wrong. The prices for me are right now so they won't be one of the tips. I have 5 bets though to hopefully get us off to a good start.
Salford v Leyton Orient
I have to take Salford on in the game which gets the season underway on BT Sport at 12.30. Orient were involved in the opening game of last season when I put up Sutton to beat them which they duly did as Orient proved very slow to get acclimatised to Non-League life. Now they have a season under their belts and they have a few months under Justin Edinburgh who improved them a lot when he took over. I think they will be in and around the play-offs and that means this is a very tricky opening fixture for big spending Salford. Graham Alexander is going to come up against some very good Non-League managers this season who know what it takes to win games at this level and Edinburgh is certainly one of them. I think they will be vulnerable in their first game of the season and the value for me is certainly with the away team at 14/5 with Marathon.
Braintree v Halifax
As I have mentioned in my ante-post preview I think Braintree are really going to struggle this season and their team doesn't look strong enough to survive at this level. Halifax are probably a bottom half side, but they at least have a side proven at this level which could be key in this opening game of the season. Granted teams that I think will do badly do sometimes win their opening games as Bognor did on the opening day of last season and they ended up going down, but I do think Halifax should be shorter than the 11/5 they are with Marathon to win this.
Eastleigh v Solihull
Eastleigh don't have the big bucks to spend anymore and there is one school of thought that it could help them as they have flattered to deceive for the last 3 seasons now when they did have the money. I'm not so sure myself and have a feeling they might struggle a bit again. Pretty much everyone thinks Solihull are going to go down and I find it hard to understand why. I do worry a bit about Tim Flowers as manager given his shocking record before, but that was a few years ago and he did well alongside Mark Yates last season to keep Moors up. They look a stronger team this time around and I think they might surprise a few people. With that in mind I will back them here at 23/10 (Skybet, William Hill and Betfair) to win on the opening day.
Boston United v Guiseley
Boston are one of my tips in the National League North and I think they can start the season with a win. I really like the signings they have made and they look especially strong up front and should score plenty of goals this season. Guiseley came down last season and I struggle to see them being capable of mounting a promotion push this time around. With that in mind I think the 67/50 on a home win with Marathon is worth taking.
Bath City v Dartford
Dartford should really have won the league last season, but they were just pipped by Havant and I think they might have blown their best chance for now of going back into the National League. They have a new managerial team in charge and losing Andy Pugh to a double broken leg in pre-season was a big blow. Bath could be in for a good season and look to have strengthened pretty well and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they finished above Saturday's opponents. I would certainly make them favourites to win this one so the 15/8 with Marathon looks a good bet.
Leyton Orient 1pt @ 14/5 with Marathon
Halifax 1pt @ 11/5 with Marathon
Solihull 1pt @ 23/10 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfair
Boston United 1pt @ 67/50 with Marathon
Bath 1pt @ 15/8 with Marathon
7.20 Wolverhampton
Just a quickie, I'm going through Mondays racing at the minute and just noticed a horse rated just 15 in the claimer. Mr Wing has been out 3 times and only beaten one horse home. Finished last of 13 in a seller last time at 200/1. I just wondered if I've seen a lower rated horse and I cant think of one?
Hoping to see a bit more on Thursday. Confident enough. Good luck.
Ripon:
3:10 - Remember The Days 15/8 (NAP)
Good winner on second run for stable lto. Faster ground and stepping up to 1M2F made the difference that day. A 4lb rise puts him on 81 which shouldn't stop him on his old form in Ireland.
3:40 - Gurkha Friend 2/1 Coral (NB)
4:40 - Good Boy Alfie 15/8 Skybet
Scored on debut. I don't recall many debut winners for this yard. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won at least once since. The Roger Charlton fav may not be straight forward or at least I hope.
Sandown:
5:55 - Heartwarming 11/4
A half sister to the stable's Heartache. Pulled out at Nottingham recently due to the ground. I got the impression she is well thought of at home when reading about her from connections. Heartache was 3-4 as a 2yo last season including on debut and a G2 win at Royal Ascot.
6:25 - Ghostwatch 2/1 Coral
Carlisle:
7:15 - Kelly's Dino 11/2 EW Coral 3P
2.55 Bath - Billy Ray
I got 16/1 last night on this and there’s been money overnight but I think 12/1 is still available. I watched his last race at the time and was really impressed with how he finished into 2nd behind a very well fancied 30/100 John Gosden hot pot Bowditch. He was pretty wide round the bend but stayed on well and was strong at the finish, suggesting the extra 2f today is going to suit. He also looks to have an action which would lend itself to soft ground which he gets at Bath today. Raul Da Silva rode a cracking winner last night so should be brimming with confidence after that. Looks a good bet at the prices.
Thank you! Was kicking myself for leaving out a few winners over the first few days. Thankfully got lucky on the last day. Thanks to BillyHills and the sponsors for yet another great competition
Final Table
Rainbow comes from behind to land the first prize with 33/1 and 9/1 winners on the last day.
Sugardaddyken and Yossa6133 fill the places.
Thanks everyone for taking part, we shall do the same for Aintree next month where I will try and score a point!
Prizes
All prizewinners contact: [email protected]
we need your PayPal address, PL name and prize being claimed.
£60: Rainbow
£25: Sugardaddyken
£15: Yossa6133
Does seem odd why someone who has been a member of the forum for 4 years has chosen to make that their first post. Yeah it was crap today, but had worse days than today though and given the prices I was playing at today it isn't a shock that all of them lost as it happens from time to time. If you want someone who tips up loads of odds on shots than following my tips isn't something I would advise. There's a guy who charges 500 euros who mainly tips odds on shots in the National League so go and follow him instead. Given the amount of winning days there have been so far this season prehaps you were just very unlucky to return to the forum today and follow the tips.
Hi guys had a big whisper for this today, COMPATRIOT in the 5.40 at Wolverhampton around 6/4 was as big as 5/2 last night, they reckon the hcap ,ark of 52 is laughable and should be in the 70's can run up a sequence over the next month, been bought out of JJ Murphy Yard in Ireland were he ran well in £6K races without winning, looks well in here, they have also bought over MISS L O NEILL from Gordon Elliott Yard to ride it in this amateur riders race.
yossa6133 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 25th
yossa6133 got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in Non-League Predictions > August 11th