yossa6133

Aston Villa vs Birmingham
It's the Second City derby this weekend when Aston Villa play local rivals Birmingham in this midday kick-off tomorrow afternoon at Villa Park. Both teams have long term aspirations to return to the promised land of the Premier League and there may even be small hopes that they can gatecrash the promotion race this season.
Aston Villa have started to settle down a bit under new manager Dean Smith. Having lost 2 of his first 3 games, the former Brentford gaffer has now guided his side to back-to-back wins in the league. Both were convincing and both wins came with a clean sheet.
Birmingham are once again proving a very dangerous team to play without quite breaking into the play-off positions. Garry Monk has seen his team only lose 1 of their last 13 league matches. Unfortunately, the Blues have drawn 9 of their 17 matches in the Championship this season. Had those draws been turned into victories then Birmingham could be in a very different situation right now.
The head-to-head record offers little hope to Birmingham fans and should fill Villa supporters with confidence. Villa are undefeated against Birmingham in their last 12 league meetings. The last defeat coming in March, 2005 when Birmingham won 2-0 in a Premier League fixture. Oh, how times have changed!
2018 has been a good year for seeing goals at Villa Park. Aston Villa last failed to hit the back of the net on home soil almost a year ago with it last occurring in a 0-0 draw against Millwall in December last year. So backing them to carry on that run makes sense here in what is likely to be a hot tempered affair. Especially considering Birmingham have conceded 6 goals in their last 2 league games.
I'm going to have to back Villa for the home win here. Derby games are always tough to make a call on but Birmingham have hit a bad run at the wrong time. Goals are now being leaked and Villa appear to be gaining in confidence. Birmingham have also failed to score in 7 of their last 12 league meetings with Villa. I can certainly see a business-like 1-0 or 2-0 win for Villa here.
Aston Villa to Win @ 1.91 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365

Stoke cost me a very nice 35/1 acca but I did manage to lay them in running as everyone else was at least 2 up!

scored on 77 66 pt profit happy with that

Previews to follow
 
Eastleigh v Chesterfield
Obviously going for the draw again here. Chesterfield may have beaten Billericay 3-1 on Tuesday night, but it could easily have been a draw as Billericay created enough to get a point. I also wouldn't read too much into the fact that they scored 3 goals as they also did that in the previous round of the FA Cup against Fylde and it didn't do much for their scoring ability in the league. Eastleigh come into this in good form and have improved after a little sticky spell after Hessenthaler left to go to Dover. They are unbeaten in 4 and that includes draws against Salford and Leyton Orient and to be fair they should have beaten Salford, but as we know Chesterfield make themselves very hard to beat conceding few and scoring few themselves and this could easily end up in another point apiece. 
Ebbsfleet v Halifax
I am also tipping up the draw in this game. Gary Hill has come in as Ebbsfleet manager, but they don't really seem to have improved and they have struggled in front of goal. Both these sides were in FA Cup action on Tuesday and the home side lost 2-0 to Cheltenham, but Halifax caused an upset when beating Morecambe 1-0. Halifax have only picked up 1 win on the road which was their first game of the season, but they have managed 4 draws including getting points at Sutton, Wrexham, Solihull and of course they drew at Morecambe in the Cup. With Ebbsfleet having been poor at home all season, with little to suggest that Hill has improved them at home, I can easily see this being a draw especially as both sides could be a bit leggy after Tuesday's games.
Havant & Waterlooville v Maidstone
This could be a tight game as well but there is no way Maidstone should be as big as they are. Their away form has been pretty decent of late as they have only lost once in their last 5 away league games. They look an improved side under the new manager and they got a very good draw at home to Wrexham last week. Havant have started picking up points as well and are unbeaten in 3 now including 2 home wins. The problem is they were against a Maidenhead side who had their keeper sent off (albeit they won 7-0) and Halifax. This game for me is tougher and their is definite value in backing the away win as I would have these two sides prices much closer together.
Solihull Moors v Salford
Salford hadn't lost in sometime prior to their defeat against Shrewsbury in the FA Cup on Wednesday night, but they have been pretty fortunate to not have lost before then. They have not been playing at their best in the whole and twice in their last 5 league games they have needed a 90th minute goal to get a point. They have also drawn against Ebbsfleet and were lucky to get past Marine in the FA Cup. They played well at Barnet and did beat Aldershot 4-0 last Saturday, but Aldershot are woeful on the road so that doesn't add up too much. Solihull are still in the play-off positions and are having a superb season. They have only lost one of their last 10 league games and have lost once at home all season. If Salford aren't at their best again then Solihull are more than good enough to punish them and are well worth a bet at the prices.
Alfreton v Farsley Celtic
Alfreton's only win in their last 9 league games came against Nuneaton last Saturday which says it all really and they have been really struggling after a good start to the season. I fancy an upset here in the FA Trophy as the away side are flying in the Evo-Stik Premier. They have only lost one of their last 10 league games and have been solid on the road. They are very much in the promotion picture and are more than good enough to get a win against their National League North hosts here.
Spennymoor v Halesowen/Truro City v Greenwich
This double is the Nap of the weekend for me. Spennymoor are having another good season in the National League North and had a good run in this competition last season. They should be more than capable of beating a Halesowen side who are really struggling at the moment in the league below. Truro have really found some form in the National League South and they really should be beating a Greenwich side who are two levels below and have only won 3 league games all season and sit in 18th place.
Eastleigh v Chesterfield 1pt draw @ 11/5 with Bet365, Skybet & William Hill
Ebbsfleet v Halifax 1pt draw @ 11/4 with Bet365
Maidstone 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Solihull 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365
Farsley Celtic 1pt @ 5/2 with BetVictor
Spennymoor/Truro City 2.5pts double at 1.16/1 with Betfred

Brentford vs Middlesbrough
I'm going to continue this weekend's trend of covering the televised games in the Championship. The third preview up this week is Brentford versus Middlesbrough that will take place at 5:30pm at Griffin Park. Both sides in need of a win here after substandard results of late.
Brentford have really struggled with life after Dean Smith. The Bees appointed Thomas Frank to succeed Smith on 16th October. Since then it's been just 1 win and 4 defeats for Brentford in the league. It's a run of results that has seen them plummet down the table to 15th place and just 5 points above the relegation zone.
Middlesbrough continue to remain in the promotion hunt. Tony Pulis will have hoped his team would be higher in the table at the moment with the club tipped by many as title winners but he can't complain. 2nd place is still automatic promotion and they're only 2 points behind league leaders Norwich. The frustrations will be drawing 3 of the last 4 league games.
It's been a tough time for Brentford in the head-to-head meetings with Middlesbrough. In fact, the Bees haven't secured a win in the league since December, 1938. That was before Adolf Hitler invaded Poland! Frank's side have also notched up just 7 points from their last potential 30 points in the league. Admittedly, some of that run was down to Smith so maybe these issues have been a long time coming.
I appreciate Brentford won their last home game 2-0 against Millwall but that was a freak result compared to their other games under Frank. Is it a work-in-progress or is this the beginning of a painful decline? I think Middlesbrough are destined to go up this season and this will be another win in the bag. Their defence is too resolute having conceded just 2 goals in their last 7 league games and 8 goals in 17 league matches in total. I'm expecting a vintage 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Boro.
Middlesbrough to Win @ 3.25 with Betfred
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.75 with Unibet

Brighton V Leicester
some good posts on here this week
I couldn't call the result of this game, but what I have noticed is that since the tragedy at the Kingpwer Stadium a few weeks ago, Leicester have stepped up the ante to honour their Chairman.
Brighton don't tend to get the most corners in a game, even at home, and I think that will most probably follow here.
Leicester's last 2 matches have ended up 24-7 in their favour (corners)
Brighton's last 3 matches have seen them lose 20-6, on corners
I'd be tempted to back Leicester Most Corners - @ 1.8
Also LEICS  -1 Corner Handicap @ 2.3
 

Good Afternoon Everybody
 
Brighton 2 Leicester 1. Brighton are 21/10 to win this one with betvictor I think that is great value they are not a bad side at home with plenty of work, endeavour, and some pinches of quality in there. Obviously Leicester will not be pushovers but I expect Brighton to nick this with the odd goal in three. BRIGHTON TO WIN 21/10 BETVICTOR
 
Everton 2 Cardiff 0. Cardiff will be up after that win before the international break, but I feel Everton at Goodison will be to much for them, but I don't see a hammering, I edged for 2-0 over 2-1 here which I may regret. EVERTON TO WIN 2-0 6/1 BET365
 
Fulham 1 Southampton 2. Fulham this month for me have  caught up in that "the manager is not up to it" web that newly promoted clubs tend to believe and fall for, I think the manager change that can so often inspire victory in a new managers first game but I don't see that here, even though Southampton are poor I think they will nick it. OVER 2.5 GOALS 24/25 MARATHONBET 
 
Man United 2 Palace 1. Think United will edge this but they seem to be on wobbly legs defensively, with anyone looking like they can score against them, however I think the quality of United will shine through, Martial has hit a nice little patch of form and United seem to be settling down a little bit therefore I think they will win this one with a nervy finish. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 21/20 BOYLESPORTS & SPORTINGBET 
 
Watford 1 Liverpool 3. Now this will be a little tougher than the scoreline suggest, Watford seem to be right up for the big games at home, and I think this could be a bit end to end which will suit Liverpool and their flying forward tactics. LIVERPOOL TO WIN 3-1 12/1 BET365
 
West Ham 2 Man City 4. Am I being hopeful that the hammers will get 2?? probably but I see City being comfortable say 3-1 4-1 up and West Ham snatching another, City are head and shoulders above everyone with only Liverpool close in my opinion. OVER 4.5 GOALS 27/10 UNIBET & 888SPORT
 
Spurs 2  Chelsea 2 . On paper easily the game of the week and even as I am typing this I have not put  a score in, I think amongst the big games this season this is probably the hardest to call I think the two sides are very evenly matched and that will probably reflect in the result, I digress as I have still no idea what I want to put. I have ended up going for 2-2 and I am not sure why........2-2 12/1 BETVICTOR, BET365, BETSTARS & 188BET
 
Bournemouth 2  Arsenal 3. Think another tough one to call here but I see the reds of Arsenal having just to much for the Cherries here, and edging home by one goal in a high scoring game, Both sides like the attacking side of the game more than they do defending and I think this will play a big part in the score. OVER 4.5 GOALS 3/1 BETVICTOR, UNIBET, BETSTARS, 188BET & SPREADEX
 
Wolves 2 Huddersfield 0. Just because they are at home I believe Wolves will see this one out, Huddersfield are in no rush to score goals it seems and I see no change here, with Wolves attacking players doing all the damage they need to creep back up the table. WOLVES HALFTIME/FULLTIME 11/8 CORAL & LADBROKES
 
Burnley 1 Newcastle 0. Not the most thrilling of teams here which is why I have gone for a 1-0 home win, which means it will end up 3-3 . No seriously I see Burnley Scoring early and then hanging on for dear life to there lead, and Newcastle are not the most potent in front of the onion bag. BURNLEY HALFTIME/FULLTIME 4/1 LADBROKES, BETVICTOR & CORAL
 
Good hunting everyone, and if I have helped in any way you are very welcome and if I haven't, please sip a beer it could be worse  

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Huddersfield Town
Huddersfield Town +1.25 AH @ 1.76 Betvictor
I think the AH line has been incorrectly set for this match. Wolves chance conversion issues are already well documented and getting them to clear a big handicap in any EPL game is a big ask for them.
Huddersfield have started the season poorly but have looked more like their old selves in recent matches. You cannot write them off under the guidance of David Wagner, they have the potential to make life difficult for Wolves here. The away side are presently available at 9.0 and this just seems silly to me.
Key attacking metrics give Wolves half a goal advantage heading into this match while ELO ratings actually give Huddersfield half a goal advantage based on recent attacking performance. In my view the Huddersfield +0.75 AH line should be set around 2.00 for this game, we're getting 2.47 at the time of writing this.
Some folks will prefer to take Huddersfield on the +1.0 AH line here and that's fair enough, I will go for +1.25 so I can register a bit of profit in the event of a narrow Wolves win.
It's difficult to see this huge Huddersfield price lasting once the big movers and shakers in the market start to sharpen up the lines.

Early doors I like the look of this set of fixtures.
I would say Southampton should not be favourites away at any PL team.  Odds may have changed now Ranieri has been made Fulham manager.
I was also thinking this could be a good opportunity to lay Man City after the international break when lots of their players will have played here there and everywhere.  West Ham away won't be the easiest game in the world, so perhaps the home team on the handicap might be a way to play this one.  I know City have a great record at west ham, but its more the circumstances of the game being right after the international break that make me think they may have lost some of their momentum and could be worth opposing.
Watford at home to Liverpool could also be a bit of an upset.  Watford playing well, Liverpool having a bit of a dip and with a big CL game away to PSG to follow.  Again, Watford on the handicap holds plenty of appeal for me.  

Well hope some of you backed Barnet last night, Listened to the radio commentary and in the first half Barnet were under a lot of pressure but 2nd half was more even and Bristol Rovers succumed to their 9th defeat against non league opposition since the war.
Barnet are at home to my team Stockport in the 2nd round 2pm kick off Sunday 2nd december and this game guarentees a non league team in the 3rd round draw.

Bristol Rovers recent cup form over the last few years is poor losing to Chesham and a Home defeat to Barrow a couple of years ago,Barnet come here on the back of a 3-1 win at Hartlepool while Rovers lost narrowly at home to Scnuthorpe,well Rovers are rightly favourites 11.00 is a big price on Barnet definitely value i feel .
Barnet 1pt @11/1 with Bet 365

Ipswich vs West Brom
Ah, back to the grind of the Friday night Championship games. These matches haven't really been too kind to me so far this season but I'm hoping that will change with this match between a struggling Ipswich and an inconsistent West Brom in a 7:45pm kick-off at Portman Road.
Ipswich have endured a tough old campaign so far. The era of Paul Hurst was short-lived. It was an interesting experiment but was doomed to fail with the lack of funding the manager received from the board. He was replaced by Paul Lambert who has steadied things slightly with two draws since he took charge. The Tractor Boys are now rock bottom of the Championship and 5 points adrift of safety. It's looking grim.
West Brom had appeared to have found their feet in the Championship after a slow start. Just 2 wins in their first 5 league games wasn't great but going their next 7 league games unbeaten saw them rise up the table. Darren Moore's team then hit a bump in the road with 3 defeats in their next 4 league games before a rampant 4-1 win at home to Leeds last match. That win has moved them to 5th place and just 5 points off the league leaders Norwich.
The Suffolk hosts don't have a brilliant record against the Baggies coming into this game. It's just 1 win in their last 9 meetings with the Midlands club. However, their last meeting was way back in 2010 so a lot has changed since then. Unfortunately, for Ipswich, it's probably changed for the worse for them!
I'm expecting goals here. West Brom have scored 37 goals in the league so far this season. That's the most number of goals scored after 17 games of an English second tier campaign since Southampton in 2011/12. What a team the Saints had back then as well. The likes of Morgan Schneiderlin, Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana, Jack Cork, Luke Shaw, and James Ward-Prowse all tearing it up in the Championship.
It's also interesting to note that the Baggies haven't kept a clean sheet at Portman Road since 1980. That's 19 visits to Ipswich in a row where they have conceded at least one goal each time. However, Ipswich haven't won at Portman Road since April so we'll see which way the goals flow.
One of West Brom's weaknesses this season is dropping points in games they're expected to win. Losing 2-1 at home to Bolton on the opening weekend, drawing 1-1 away to Birmingham, and losing 1-0 away to both Wigan and Hull. Will this be another underwhelming display? I'm not sure they'll destroy Ipswich. Lambert has tightened things up but both of their two draws have been against fellow strugglers so it's hard to read anything into those games. I think Moore's team should just have too much but it could be closer than many are expecting.
BTTS @ 1.91 with Betfred
West Brom to Win @ 1.95 with BetVictor
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @Gidds, @chris50, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you guys all lining up for these games this weekend?

Done a small stakes treble on Forest, Norwich and Stoke, was around 15/1. 

Billericay v Chesterfield
I could write a one word preview for this and move on because regular readers will know I am going to tip up a draw. Backing Chesterfield to draw came in again at the weekend and so I will continue to back it here. Chesterfield are finding goals hard to come by and although they usually draw their games 1-1 (as was the case in the first game) on Saturday they couldn't find the net at all against Havant & Waterlooville. Billericay also drew themselves in a game against Hungerford which went into the 90th minute as 1-1 and ended up being 2-2. Maybe the players had one eye on this game because on paper they should have won the game fairly comfortably. Billericay have also drawn 5 of their last 6 games and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this went to extra time and 12/5 (Bet365) is good value on the draw.
Doncaster v Chorley
Bet365 did have the away team priced up at 16/1 at one point on Monday which was just crazy in my view as is the 14/1 they currently are at the time of writing. Going into the first game Chorley were going through a sticky patch in the league failing to win in 5 and losing 3 of them having been unbeaten up until that point. However they were unlucky not to win the first game and if it had been 11 v 11 I think they would have done. Even then it took what in my view was the goal of the round to take Chorley to a replay. That performance was carried into the league on Saturday when they hammered Kidderminster 4-0 and were really impressive. Doncaster meanwhile scraped past mangerless AFC Wimbledon needing a late goal to beat them 2-1. Obviously it will be tougher for Chorley to go and beat Doncaster at home, but the odds are all wrong for me and they should be at least half the 14/1 they currently are.
Halifax v Morecambe
Halifax very much hung on for a replay in the first game barely having a shot in the whole 90 minutes. They managed to finally win a league match on Saturday, but it was only against a struggling Dover and having won 5 league games in August it was their first win since their final game that month. To be fair at home they have only lost twice in the league, but this will be a tough game for them against a side who are unbeaten in their last 5 away league games and won at Forest Green on Saturday. I think the 6/4 is a solid bet here as I would have them around the even money mark.
Billericay v Chesterfield 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet 365
Chorley 1pt @ 14/1 with Bet 365
Morecambe 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365

In 10 years of counting replays, all dogs priced at 8.00 and greater are 2-5-34...5% wins and 12% draws. In the round of 128, they're 1-1-9 (9% wins, 9% draws). I'd say you can trust them both.

The Championship fixtures are not upon us for over a week yet but we've got time to get our thoughts together. Study the odds and ratings above then let us know what bets you're placing for these games. The unpredictable nature of this division is scaring people away at the moment. Who is brave enough to take a punt? 

That late Southport winner turned a decent day into a very good day. Shame Darlington went 2 down before they got going and Dulwich had a man sent off which stopped their chance of winning, but very happy with the days work.

thanks one more time Darran for this 2 games . Lovely saturday for me . Regards
 

FA Cup weekend was rather profitable backed up with FCUM winning at a big price in the league and then Tuesday night it was 2 from 2 with Southport and Dartford both winning. Hopefully that will continue on Saturday and I have 7 bets this weekend.
Chesterfield v Havant & Waterlooville (National League)
I was all set to be all over Harrogate at odds against, but the game has been called off as Maidenhead have too many players called up for international duty. The rest of the fixtures look tricky from a punting point of view, but I have to carry on with my backing Chesterfield to draw system. 3 matches on the bounce it has paid off now and I also had the 1-1 draw covered when they played Halifax a few weeks ago. They have drawn 8 of their last 10 league games and 6 of those draws have been 1-1. When you chuck in the FA Cup game last week which was also a 1-1 draw I am kicking myself for not putting that up for the last 3 weeks! However we can't be too greedy and I will just stick with the draw again. To be honest it does look like a winnable game for the home side, but Havant had last weekend off so they will be fresh and ready and they have managed to win their last 2 games so I am backing the draw again.
Dulwich v Oxford City (National League South) I was surprised that Dulwich lost to Truro last Sunday although it has to be said that Truro do seem to be improving and that made it 4 games unbeaten for them in the league. As for Dulwich that was the 2nd disappointing result in a row as they also blew a 2 goal lead against Weston last Tuesday. They are 4 games unbeaten at home though and I think it is worth opposing Oxford City again. Dartford should have been well out of sight before Oxford made it 3-2 on Tuesday night such was their dominance especially in the 1st half. By all accounts the fact Oxford had been involved in such a tough game at Tranmere 3 days prior showed. Here the focus will surely be on the replay especially as it is on BT Sport and Dulwich are more than good enough to make them pay.   Boston v Southport (National League North) I have to continue backing Southport after 3 superb results now as I get the feeling they are finally showing the reason I backed them ante-post for the title. Granted beating Hereford at the moment is nothing special, but they put the game to bed with ease and I always like it when a team does that whatever the opponents. It is important to try and find teams who are playing better than their league position suggests as the bookies will always price those sides up bigger than they should as they have here. Boston were another one of my ante-post tips for the title and they are having a solid season only being 6 points off the lead, but in their last 5 league games they have only beaten Hereford and as things stand Southport are looking in better form at the moment.   Darlington v Hereford (National League North) For the 3rd game running I have to oppose Hereford. Yes they went down to 10 men on Tuesday night, but they were never really in the game and this is a really tough match for them given how long it has been since they won a league game. The home side meanwhile are unbeaten in 5 league games and have only lost one of their last 8. They have drawn their last 3, but their last two games have been against Bradford and Guiseley so they would have been harder games than this. Hereford have only won one away game all season and Darlington have had a couple of weeks without a league game so should be raring to go against a team low on confidence.   FCUM v AFC Telford (National League North) The home side have yet to win at home, but surely that will change soon given they have shown massive improvement of late. They are now unbeaten in 5 league games and have scored 3 in their last two. Now Telford will be tougher opponents than Blyth or Hereford and are obviously having a good season, but I think FCUM certainly offer value at over 2/1 given like Southport they are clearly playing better than their league position suggests.   Barwell v Kings Lynn (Evo-Stik South Central) Barwell cost us big time a couple of weeks ago when they conceded a penalty in injury time against Bedford and hopefully they won't cost us this time as I think Kings Lynn look a cracking bet. Even before Ian Culverhouse came back as manager they were improving after a tricky start to the season as they are unbeaten in 7 league games, but they have comfortably won both games since he came back. Given how good they were under him last season I am expecting them to be a major force in the division and possibly even push for the title as they are only 9 points behind at the moment. They are a better side than their hosts and after that draw against Bedford they have still only won once at home this season.   Reddtich v Lowestoft (Evo-Stik South Central) I opposed Redditch a few weeks ago against Biggleswade which was a winning bet, but having wondered if their new manger would improve them or not given their seemed to be plenty of issues I certainly got that wrong. I didn't think he would, but he has as they then won their next 4 league games.They did lose 4-0 to Stourbridge on Tuesday night to break that run, but then Stourbridge are 2nd in the table and Lowestoft are certainly no Stourbridge. They have only picked up 1 point in their last 7 league games and have only won once away from home picking up just one other point. Redditch certainly look in much better shape and can bounce straight back from the Stourbridge defeat.   Chesterfield v Havant 1pt draw @ 5/2 with Bet365 Dulwich 1pt @ 61/50 with Marathon Southport 2pts@ 68/25 with Marathon Darlington 2pts @ 11/10 with Paddy Power and Betway FCUM 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power Kings Lynn 2.5pts @ 71/50 with Marathon Redditch 2pts  @ 7/5 with BetVictor

Not too many Non-League games this mid-week but a couple of matches have caught my eye from a betting point of view.
Hereford v Southport (National League North)
The knives are out for Marc Richards from the Hereford fans already. The fans weren't happy in the first place that he was the new manager and given they are yet to win under him they are getting angrier by the match. Opposing them on Saturday was a very profitable decision as FCUM ran out 3-1 winners having scored their goals in the space of 4 1st half minutes. They are now in the relegation zone and if Ricco doesn't turn it around soon then he will probably regret moving from Gloucester last month and taking up the role here. Usually I would want to oppose a team who are coming off the back of a big FA Cup win as Southport are doing, but there are strong signs that they are turning their season around. They put in a very impressive performance to win 4-1 against Kidderminster in their last league game and then followed that up with a 2-0 win against Boreham Wood on Saturday which was a good effort as Wood always make themselves hard to beat. I hope that those performances mean they now have the momentum and instead of being distracted by the Cup they use it as an incentive to start climbing the table especially as they face a team who are going to be under huge pressure in front of their own fans. At 89/50 with Marathon I think Southport are a decent bet.
Dartford v Oxford City (National League South)
After watching my 7th game of the season in this division on Saturday I feel strongly that their is little between the sides in this division this season and games are generally being won via small margins rather than teams being superior. That means taking short odds is going to generally be a bit of a risky proposition, however I am going to back Dartford here because I think there is a very strong case to do so. Dartford have only lost once in their last 7 games and are finally getting going after a slow start to the season. At home they have only lost once so far and given the tightness of the division they will be one of many teams eyeing up a play-off spot. They didn't have a game on Saturday so will have had extra rest ahead of this one which is something Oxford certainly didn't have. Fair play to City because I didn't think they would be in the hat for the 2nd Round draw, but they put in a hell of a performance to draw 3-3 with Tranmere on Saturday. That game is surely going to have left it's mark and it would be easy to think they will be having their minds on the replay which must have a high chance of being on TV. Prior to winning at Hampton last time out they had only picked up 1 away point all season and that came at Weston. The home side are basically even money with Marathon and for me there are very sound reasons to think that is too big.
Southport 2pts @ 89/50 with Marathon
Dartford 3pts @ 99/100 with Marathon

F
 
Yeah I am very surprised by that although but there we go. Aldershot sadly couldn’t hold on but the other 3 bets were winners and my one non league bet won at a huge price as well.

I'm an avid Pompey fan and must say that if they play anything like they played against us last Saturday they will be good things against Aldershot. Yes we won 1x0, but having been to all of Pompey's matches this season, both home and away, they were one of our hardest opponents to date, They missed a couple of sitters and had us under pressure for long spells. To me Bradford are the bet of the weekend.
Also on our game against Maidenhead, I'll be very surprised if we don't win by at least 3, so going Pompey -2 for the double.

I hate backing odds on but I am adding in us to win at Weston on Sunday lunch. Weston might have picked up a bit in the last couple of games but it is still a team top of the National, with a stingy defence who are capable of grinding out results, against a team rooted to the bottom of the league below. The manager isn't going to play much of a weakened team  (at best one or two rested but on the bench) and knows that this is a decent chance to get to round 2.
Wrexham at a generally available 1.57

As I often write I love punting on the FA Cup as you usually get some great betting opportunities and I never really understand why people want to leave it alone. I think in some ways it can be easier to make money from it than the league action. I am going to tip up a couple of upsets, but nothing at really huge odds has really grabbed me this year. I’m sure a big price will land, but there didn’t seem an obvious candidate for me this time around.
 
Maidenhead v Portsmouth
This game is the live Saturday lunchtime match on BT Sport and it is easy to see why they choose it, but I would be really shocked if we see an upset here. Maidenhead are in desperate form at the moment having lost 6 on the bounce in the league and they needed a replay to see off National League South side Chippenham to reach the 1st Round. Now defeats to the likes of Salford and Leyton Orient I can understand, but they have lost to Havant and Dover in their last two matches. Granted they had their keeper sent off in the Havant game whilst it was still 1-0 and they had to play with an outfield play in goals for over 50 minutes, but to lose 7-0 still isn’t great. In those 6 games they have conceded 23 times and scored just once and I think they are just about the worst side in the National League at the moment. Portsmouth on the other-hand are the best team they could possibly be facing as they sit 3 points clear at the top of League 1 at the moment. The have lost just one league game all season and they should be able to see off the home side with little fuss. Obviously they are priced up accordingly but the 10/11 for them to cover the -1 handicap makes a lot of appeal.
 
Aldershot v Bradford
Another game where a National League side takes on a League 1 side, but Bradford are at the opposite end of the table. They have lost 13 of their 17 games in League 1 and have just 10 points. If we narrow it down to their last 10 games they have picked up just 4 points, scored only 6 goals and have lost 6 games on the bounce. They won’t be looking forward to going to an Aldershot side that are very strong at home. They don’t look the same side who has reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons, but their home form has been very strong with them winning 6 of their 10 games at home and losing just 2 of them. One of those defeats was to Maidstone and it’s fair to say Aldershot completely dominated the game and should have won. This tie is just the sort of match that I look for as a possible upset as Bradford will be very low on confidence and Aldershot have northing to lose. Betfair are best about a home win at 11/5.
 
Chesterfield v Billericay
The backing Chesterfield to draw theory proved profitable again last week, although Harrogate left it very late to equalize. For new readers Chesterfield have now drawn 8 of their last 10 league games. They might be playing a team from the league below this week, but obviously Billericay are no ordinary Step 2 team. I think they are more than capable of holding their own and they can easily get a replay. The draw is priced up at 12/5 with Bet365.
 
Maidstone v Macclesfield
I rarely bet in the Football League, but my first ante-post bet of the year was backing Macclesfield to go straight back down. Fair play to them on wining the National League title last season, but they weren’t the best team in the league (something Tranmere are showing this season). They have very little money and with John Askey moving on it was always going to be a tough task. So far so good with that bet as they have only picked up 7 points, winning just the once. Now Maidstone are hardly the best side in the National League and they have only won once at home in the league, but I think this is just the sort of game that will see the home side perform at their best which will make them very dangerous against a team who are basically a National League side anyway. Bet365 and Betfair go 11/5 about a home win and that makes plenty of appeal.
 
Barnet v Bristol Rovers
In the 2013/14 Conference Premier season these two teams finished first and second, which is probably why the BBC have moved it to a Sunday lunchtime. A bit like how Macclesfield weren’t the best team last season I thought Bristol Rovers were the best team that season (this coming from someone who backed Barnet for the title ante-post) and they have done well since finding themselves in League 1. Barnet are already back in Non-League football and they have had no luck with injuries this season. I think John Still has a strong squad and could still make the play-offs, but performances have been a bit in and out and they weren’t great in a 2-0 defeat by Maidstone last week. Rovers’ away form has been pretty solid as they may have lost 4 of their 9 away league games, but they were all by a single goal. They have drawn 3 and won twice. This is obviously a much easier task than they usually have and they should be odds on to win this in my view so 21/20 (William Hill and Skybet) looks a good bet to me.
 
FA Cup Acca
There are 5 teams who I think look bankers this weekend and the acca pays just over 5/1 with Skybet. I have already mentioned Portsmouth so they certainly go in. On the Friday night the BBC have decided to show Haringey v AFC Wimbledon which was an easy choice and people may think because the Dons are struggling in League 1 that their might be an upset. I can’t see it though as Haringey are a below average Step 3 side and the gulf in class is huge. It is also worth noting that Haringey had a pretty kind draw to make it to the 1st Round. Another Step 3 side Met Police are at home to League 2 Newport and again it is hard to see how Newport don’t have a fairly comfortable afternoon. Tranmere host National League South side Oxford City and they should be too strong for them. Finally on the Sunday Hitchin, who are another struggling Step 3 side, host National League side Solihull Moors. Moors are having a superb season and can add to that by making it to the 2nd Round.
Portsmouth -1 3pts @ 10/11 with Skybet and Betfred
Aldershot 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfair
Chesterfield v Billericay 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet365
Maidstone 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfair
Bristol Rovers 2.5pts @ 21/20 with William Hill and Skybet
AFC Wimbledon/Portsmouth/Newport/Tranmere/Solihull 1pt acca @ 5/1 with Skybet

Look some decent shouts for home wins this week, I'll be putting Sheffield Utd, Norwich, Derby and Birmingham in a few bets.