FA Cup Predictions > Nov 20th & 21st

[StevieDay1983]

The FA Cup 1st Round replays are this coming week. A few teams that are at home that might be worth backing here at decent odds. Thinking the likes of Billericay Town, Charlton, Crawley Town, and Oxford City could be worth a punt here. What do you guys reckon?

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[Teodore]

Can we trust Doncaster and Bristol R. ?

[StevieDay1983]

4 hours ago, Teodore said:

Can we trust Doncaster and Bristol R. ?

Not at those odds. I'd only be willing to back them in a handicap and not sure both would come away with more than a single goal win. That being said, I remember being a Cardiff fan when we were in the basement division. If we played a team a division or two or three above us I always felt that if it went to an away replay then we'd get battered.

[allthethings]

Odds will change, but at the moment, among the big dogs, Mansfield and Ebbsfleet are the best draw bets, and Aldershot is the best for an outright win.

Among the matches that don't involve a favorite of under 2.0, Crawley and Slough are decent bets to win outright.

[allthethings]

5 hours ago, Teodore said:

Can we trust Doncaster and Bristol R. ?

In 10 years of counting replays, all dogs priced at 8.00 and greater are 2-5-34...5% wins and 12% draws. In the round of 128, they're 1-1-9 (9% wins, 9% draws). I'd say you can trust them both.

[Darran]

Billericay v Chesterfield

I could write a one word preview for this and move on because regular readers will know I am going to tip up a draw. Backing Chesterfield to draw came in again at the weekend and so I will continue to back it here. Chesterfield are finding goals hard to come by and although they usually draw their games 1-1 (as was the case in the first game) on Saturday they couldn't find the net at all against Havant & Waterlooville. Billericay also drew themselves in a game against Hungerford which went into the 90th minute as 1-1 and ended up being 2-2. Maybe the players had one eye on this game because on paper they should have won the game fairly comfortably. Billericay have also drawn 5 of their last 6 games and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this went to extra time and 12/5 (Bet365) is good value on the draw.

Doncaster v Chorley

Bet365 did have the away team priced up at 16/1 at one point on Monday which was just crazy in my view as is the 14/1 they currently are at the time of writing. Going into the first game Chorley were going through a sticky patch in the league failing to win in 5 and losing 3 of them having been unbeaten up until that point. However they were unlucky not to win the first game and if it had been 11 v 11 I think they would have done. Even then it took what in my view was the goal of the round to take Chorley to a replay. That performance was carried into the league on Saturday when they hammered Kidderminster 4-0 and were really impressive. Doncaster meanwhile scraped past mangerless AFC Wimbledon needing a late goal to beat them 2-1. Obviously it will be tougher for Chorley to go and beat Doncaster at home, but the odds are all wrong for me and they should be at least half the 14/1 they currently are.

Halifax v Morecambe

Halifax very much hung on for a replay in the first game barely having a shot in the whole 90 minutes. They managed to finally win a league match on Saturday, but it was only against a struggling Dover and having won 5 league games in August it was their first win since their final game that month. To be fair at home they have only lost twice in the league, but this will be a tough game for them against a side who are unbeaten in their last 5 away league games and won at Forest Green on Saturday. I think the 6/4 is a solid bet here as I would have them around the even money mark.

Billericay v Chesterfield 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet 365

Chorley 1pt @ 14/1 with Bet 365

Morecambe 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365

Edited November 19, 2018 by Darran

[postmanplod69]

Bristol Rovers recent cup form over the last few years is poor losing to Chesham and a Home defeat to Barrow a couple of years ago,Barnet come here on the back of a 3-1 win at Hartlepool while Rovers lost narrowly at home to Scnuthorpe,well Rovers are rightly favourites 11.00 is a big price on Barnet definitely value i feel .

Barnet 1pt @11/1 with Bet 365

Edited November 19, 2018 by postmanplod69

[allthethings]

18 hours ago, postmanplod69 said:

Bristol Rovers recent cup form over the last few years is poor losing to Chesham and a Home defeat to Barrow a couple of years ago,Barnet come here on the back of a 3-1 win at Hartlepool while Rovers lost narrowly at home to Scnuthorpe,well Rovers are rightly favourites 11.00 is a big price on Barnet definitely value i feel .

Barnet 1pt @11/1 with Bet 365

Now that Barnet's odds have dropped to under 8.00, they're a decent draw bet. 43% draws in this range. Bristol were one of the victims, drawing in 90 against Crawley before winning in ET. In fact, all three of the draw teams lost in ET.

[allthethings]

On 11/19/2018 at 10:29 AM, allthethings said:

Odds will change, but at the moment, among the big dogs, Mansfield and Ebbsfleet are the best draw bets, and Aldershot is the best for an outright win.

Among the matches that don't involve a favorite of under 2.0, Crawley and Slough are decent bets to win outright.

Gone all wins today. The ones I liked and bet without hesitation:

Forest Green 3.10, Ebbsfleet 4.56, Mansfield 4.24, Slough 3.44, Crawley 3.56

The ones I didn't like so well, but decided to take them anyway:

Halifax 3.10. Morecambe have traditionally been better away than home, though not last year, and this year they've only started to show that old away form recently. However, I feel like Halifax survived when basically playing their worst match in recent weeks, and they nearly won it at the death.

Aldershot 5.95. This one...well, it really just came down to the price. Couldn't help myself.

 

Ah shit, one more where the price just looks too good. Oxford City 5.55.

Edited November 20, 2018 by allthethings

[allthethings]

2 hours ago, allthethings said:

Gone all wins today. The ones I liked and bet without hesitation:

Forest Green 3.10, Ebbsfleet 4.56, Mansfield 4.24, Slough 3.44, Crawley 3.56

The ones I didn't like so well, but decided to take them anyway:

Halifax 3.10. Morecambe have traditionally been better away than home, though not last year, and this year they've only started to show that old away form recently. However, I feel like Halifax survived when basically playing their worst match in recent weeks, and they nearly won it at the death.

Aldershot 5.95. This one...well, it really just came down to the price. Couldn't help myself.

 

Ah shit, one more where the price just looks too good. Oxford City 5.55.

That could have gone better. Aldershot, Crawley and Slough force ET, while only Halifax win. Minus 4.9

[postmanplod69]

Well hope some of you backed Barnet last night, Listened to the radio commentary and in the first half Barnet were under a lot of pressure but 2nd half was more even and Bristol Rovers succumed to their 9th defeat against non league opposition since the war.

Barnet are at home to my team Stockport in the 2nd round 2pm kick off Sunday 2nd december and this game guarentees a non league team in the 3rd round draw.