yossa6133

Great to see a big field at Kelso for a decent pot and a good new initiative for Northern pointers/Hunter Chasers to aim for. It is going to be quite a short preview though because Mr Mercurial should be winning this. He looks different class to the rest and beat one of his main rivals here Black River by 15L at Perth earlier in the month. The only slight concern I have is the trip because he is better over shorter, but he should be capable of out classing the opposition here and thus I expect him to get away with it.
As for the rest it is hard to see how Black River can reverse form with him. Racing Pulse has won both starts for Nick Alexander although the form is nothing special and he was getting well beaten in Irish points earlier in the season. Cave Hunter has won a match since he pulled up at Hexham, but that effort was more proof that he isn't the horse he was. Shimla Dawn ran pretty well to be 3rd in this last year, but he doesn't want to stay this far and in a big field he probably won't get the easy lead he needs either. Always Tipsy ran well enough in a handicap hurdle at Perth last month, but that was off a mark of 103 and Mr Mercurial is probably around a 30lbs better horse than that. Streets Of Milan won the Heart Of All England at Hexham last year, but has only won one point this term although the 4m trip was too far for him last time. Of the rest only Wayupinthesky is worth mentioning as he has been capable enough in the past and although not as good as he was, he might well outrun his odds.
Basically though as long as he sees the trip out Mr Mercurial should outclass them here and he really ought to be an odds on shot.
Mr Mercurial 2.5pts @ 11/10 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfred
Sausalito Sunrise was very disappointing at Worcester on Friday. He got a bump from Silvergrove very early on and after that he just never went a yard after that. Not saying that the bump was the cause for him spitting the dummy out, but he wasn't a happy horse as he ended up finishing last. Diamond King won it very easily, but the race did fall into his lap somewhat and he didn't have to improve on his pointing runs in the end to win. Silvergrove's saddle apparently slipped although it was hard to tell when and it made no difference in my view. Kit Barry never looked like adding to his Fontwell win.

Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Benoit Paire at 1.82 with betsson
I think it's time for this huge talent to win his first title. Felix did great after first set yesterday when taking out Nikoloz Basilashvili and I think that's what we will get used to seeing from Felix in a long time to come. So Felix for me here.
I'm also on Felix -1.5 games at 2.00 with Unibet

Very good Tennys even though it was a stretched out hard fought victory in two. But now I've seen Tennys play and I think he'll nick a set in the maindraw at least. He's got a stable service, some unreturned and some aces here and there and he doesn't commit many unforced errors either.

Value or not I can't see Nikoloz Basilashvili beating Felix A-A but Benoit can probably beat Taylor.

Jumped and travelled, just beat by a better horse who was pretty impressive.

I shall start with Huntingdon and a good result with Saffron Wells winning. Some might say he was a lucky winner and I do think Bletchley Castle would have probably one but for the awful mistake 3 out, but as I pointed out in the preview his jumping was always going to be an issue so it was no surprise he threw in a howler. As we all know jumping is the name of the game and no doubt his supporters will have wished the race was run whilst the sun was still out. Given he went into the open ditch first time around going as fast as Black Caviar it was some effort for him to finish as close as he has. I wonder if trying him over hurdles might work for him. Blackwood Rover came looked the winner, but he just didn't stay and jumped the last a tired horse. Basically the race fell into Saffron Wells' lap, but it had the look of that sort of race beforehand so whilst I didn't want to back him at odds on I was happy to take the chance at odds against and this time it worked out. Sand Blast ran OK, but didn't really see out the trip and the market move for Knockedoutloaded was strange given he was never going to get an easy lead.
Decent prize on offer as always for the Crudwell Cup and its an interesting race. Marcle Ridge is favourite on the back of his dominant Cheltenham win. He only knows one way of running so will be attempting to make all. He is clearly progressive and he jumped really well at Cheltenham, but as I said in my review of the card it was a bad race and beating Kit Barry is nothing special.
Killaro Boy is making his UK debut and his first run for 251 days. He was 3rd at the Punchestown Festival last year in a handicap hurdle off 114 and he is rated higher over fences. I'm not sure he is going to stay and he will need to given the favourite will be going off at a good gallop. Given it is his first run for so long as well that is also going to be a concern. He could win, but I just wonder if its a case of giving him a run ahead of a summer campaign.
Garde Ville won this race last year and then went on to win the John Corbett Cup the week after. He was impressive in this last year and at his best he would have a very good chance. The problem is I just don't think he's been quite as good this time around. He has won twice, but finishing 2nd has become  a habit. He looked the winner at Bangor back in March only for Optimised and Unioniste to overtake him. That was good form, but it has what he's done since which is a concern. He won next time in a 3 runner race at 2/5, but has finished 2nd in his next 4 starts including Tabley on Sunday. I think he is at his best on softer ground this will be his 7th race in the last 2 months so surely he wont be at his best.
Chase Me has won 3 on the bounce after taking a while to break his maiden tag, but hard to see how he can take the leap to win a race like this. A handicap mark of 80 could look attractive though if they decided to exploit that. Master Sunrise ran better than the bare result suggests at Cheltenham and he does look a big price again as it was certainly a step up from his first two efforts where he sulked. Back down in trip I think he can run well again, but surely they will be looking to exploit a falling handicap mark in a summer handicap. Crazy he is the same price as After Aspen as I type as I know which one I wouldn't be wanting to back in a match bet especially as Master Sunrise ran much better than he did at Cheltenham.
As much as I don't think he beat much at Cheltenham there are questions about his main rivals here and if he puts in the same sort of performance I think he could be hard to catch so I make him the bet.
Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill
 

Thought Saffron Wells would go odds against and he did this morning. I have waited to see if the drift would continue but it hasn't budged, but the 5/4 with Marathon is a fair price and any odds against that you can get is worth taking for me. Having said that my son wants number 2 to win so maybe I should just listen to him!
Sand Blast has been nibbled at in the betting so clearly others have the same idea I have. My suggestion is backing him and Torran Na Dtonn in the betting without the front two with Bet365 at 3/1 and 7/1.
Saffron Wells 2pts @ 5/4 with Marathon
Sand Blast betting without the front 2 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
Torran Na Dtonn betting without the front 2 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365

Won

Good luck today
3.35 Brighton-Gin Palace
Each Way @ 9-1  Ladbrokes
Stable having regular winners

Good luck today
5.35 Redcar-Thomas Cubitt @ 9-4 [Paddy Power]
Been crying out for a stamina test

We get to the final game of the Non-League season and hopefully a final winning bet as well. The big question here is how Fylde will cope after losing in the Play-Off Final last week. It wasn't a great game and although Fylde saw a fair bit of the ball, especially in the first half, they weren't good enough in either box and Salford ran out comfortable winners in the end. So will Fylde be determined to not lose again or will they struggle mentally to get over losing the big prize? What we also have to factor in is the fact they have played 3 games since Orient played their last competitive match so it could mean Orient are ring rusty. I thought it was a great piece of management from Justin Edinburgh to organise a friendly against an U23 team from Aston Villa last week, a game which they won 3-1. I know friendlies are obviously very different from a competitive match, but it was crucial for them to get a match under their belts ahead of this game.
I am firmly in the Leyton Orient camp here. They deservedly claimed the National League title and I would be amazed if this isn't their only appearance in an FA Trophy Final. Some might think that with the big prize won they won't care so much about this, but I don't buy that for a second. A chance to do a big double like this is very rare for a team like Orient and they will be backed by 23000 fans and they will be desperate to do the double for the fans just as much as themselves. They have been so strong defensively this season having conceded the fewest goals in the division. If we look at the aggregate scores over the 2 league games then it was 5-1 to Orient and they were impressive in both victories as well. 
The question I pondered in the first paragraph about Fylde's mental ability to get over last weekend is an interesting one, but I fall on the side of them struggling to get over it. Especially as they were so easily beaten in the end. It has to play on their mind when they come out onto the pitch and the fact they have to play the champions of the division, a team they have been well beaten by twice already this season is also going to have a part to play. Danny Rowe was pretty anonymous last week and he never really had much of a sniff of scoring a goal. If that happens again here then Fylde will struggle to score and given how stingy Orient's defence is then I can imagine they might well struggle to score.
Man for man Orient are the better side and I think they have a lot of things in their favour on Sunday afternoon. The only slight worry I have is if they are a bit rusty especially in the early stages, but hopefully that friendly has helped in that regard and it won't be an issue. No doubt Macauley Bonne will be popular in the first goalscorer market and he found his feat again in April scoring a couple having only scored 4 in the league in the previous 3 months. Josh Koroma might offer a bit more value in that market though if you are looking to play. I am going to have a small interest in Orient winning 2-0 which is priced up at 10/1 with Bet 365, but Orient to win it in 90 minutes at 36/25 looks a really good bet to me.
Leyton Orient 2.5pts @ 36/25 with Marathon
Leyton Orient to win 2-0 @ 10/1 with Bet365

Clerisy is upped to listed class today at York [2.25]
Tough race but should not be disgraced
Each Way @ 11-1 [4 Places]  Skybet

Granted if I had made loads of money I might have viewed it differently, but what a waste of time that card was.
Follow The Paint didn't jump well but she got the job done in the end. Allie Beag who had actually jumped much better than at Fakenham gave it a good go, but needless to say the form isn't worth anything. Surely someone with a half decent mare will go for this race next year.
Steeles Terrace never really went a yard sadly which is what the jockey told the stewards.The trainer blamed the ground saying it was softer than the official description, but I find that hard to believe. Play The Ace was poor as well and stopped quickly. Wells De Lune did the same on this card last year and then had an amazing summer so I wouldn't write him off just yet as the Bowens might be able to turn him around. Witness In Court was gutsy in the finish, but given he only had For 'N' Against to beat the form is poor.
Sadly This Breac couldn't quite hold off Kit Barry, but you can see why I wanted to take him on at such short odds. To be fair Kit Barry deserves his day in the sun, but he surely isn't going to find such a bad race again.
Monsieur Gibraltar won with ease as expected. For some reason the Sky pundit thought he would be a short price favourite for the big one at Stratford, but he wouldn't have a hope in hell of staying 3m4f. He also disappointed at that meeting last season and I think they would be better calling it quits for the season. Dont Do Mondays lost his chance of finishing 2nd when he was shortened up at the 4th last.
Was right about Adrenalin Flight being capable of finishing 2nd and Southfield Vic clearly was feeling the effects of running yesterday, but had nothing to beat really so he won very easily in the end. Newton Abbot and Stratford were mentioned as possibles after the race.
I thought Earth Leader was the most impressive winner on the card. I know Dandan and Legal Ok helped set it up by going such a fast pace and Dandan ruined Legal Ok's chances, but I don't think it would have changed the result if he had got an easier lead. Bryan gave the winner a very sensible ride as he sat of the fast pace. He is clearly a progressive horse and he is the only one, bar the previous two winners, who is worth taking from the meeting. Having said that if Legal Ok was able to get an easier lead in a summer handicap he would be worth backing.
Some training feat to get Tusa Eire to win after so long off. The trainer seems a bit of a character as well judged on the interview after the race. He wasn't unbacked either so clearly some people knew. It was a bad race though which certainly helped. The fav looks well worth taking on should it ever run in a hunter chase again. Sadly Exclusive Rights ran just as she did at Sedgefield. She might well just have had enough of racing.
Last year Fontwell was a great night and Cheltenham and Stratford didn't go so well, so hopefully it is a reverse this season and Stratford can be a great end to the season. It will certainly be a better card to watch than the dire stuff served up tonight.

Dino Bay won the race at Woodford last month that he was 2nd in on debut last year. His jumping isn't the best so no jumps will be a help here.   Durouyn is in the sales next week so a bold showing here will help the price. Won well on debut in a bumper at Hereford and was a second quicker than You Too Bonny Lass carrying 13lbs more so he is clearly useful.   Eden Collonges isn't the best of jumpers and did win his maiden over 2m4f. Most exposed of these though and others should improve past him.   Merchant House won the Exeter version of these and he clearly enjoys the lack of fences given he won a bumper at Barbury in December, but failed to win over fences in points. Stayed on strongly that day and I just wonder if this flat track will pay to his strengths as much. I also have the suspicion this is a stronger race, but you certainly have to respect his claims.   Bird On The Wire went for £50k at the sales, but his winning time at Brafield was nothing special given he was getting 18lbs in allowances. Only just beat Mount Nelly on debut in a bumper at Barbury and that suggest he will have to find more improvement to land this.   Garry Clermont went for a huge £150k at the sales and he was an impressive winner at Bangor over 3m on debut. Was getting 21lbs that day though and the 2nd who was beaten 15L was 3rd in the Heart Of All England at Hexham so the form is OK. This obviously a very different test, but he clearly has to be respected.   Quinta Do Mar won in a time 4 seconds quicker than the other division of the bumper on the card, but it doesn't look the strongest heat he won. Respect connections though, but I prefer the chances of others.   Tom O'Roughley was left alone to win last time and even then he refused at the last. He shouldn't be winning this.   Granny's Secret won on debut at Bangor and in a 5 second quicker time than the other division of the bumper which was won by Whenhellbrokeloose. Went unsold at the sales and if we use Whenhellbrokeloose as a guide it suggests she has a bit to find. Gave her jockey his first winner in that victory.   Mount Nelly was solid enough at Exeter, but hard to see her turning tables on the winner let alone winning this.   Roseisaroseisarose made a good debut at Barbury when a mistake 2 out cost her the race. The winner was a fairly exposed one though so the form doesn't look anything special.   Ever since You Too Bonny Lass won on her debut at Hereford I have been hoping she would get entered in this. As I mentioned above she did win in a slightly slower time than Duroyn, but for me she was way more impressive. First of all she won by a massive 28L hard held and the way she quickened clear of the rest about 2 furlongs out was really eye-catching. Two more key things. First of all I know connections of the 2nd home think a lot about their horse and I think they were expecting to win that day. He has won since. Secondly connections of this one suspected they had a very good horse on their hands. She gets all the allowances here plus Bryan Carver gets to take 5 more pounds off her back.   Garry Clermont is certainly respected and no doubt Merchant House will give it a good go to follow up the Exeter win, but I have to be with You Too Bonny Lass after her really impressive display at Hereford. She proved that day she has a turn of foot and I really like her for this. It is worth having a saver on the other Hereford winner Durouyn as well given he did clock a quicker time and is clearly decent as well.   You Too Bonny Lass 2pts e/w @ 10/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power Durouyn 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power

Probably a better day for the VDW 'methodology' at York today as there are four 'key' races IMO, namely - 2.25, 3.00, 3.35, 5.05.
As the 2.25 & 3.0 are forecast with short odds maybe the best approach could be a VDW system double Lah Ti Dar and Too Darn Hot.
As for the other two races the better prize money is for the 3.35 and I will rate that one.

Tomorrow's Dante 
Almania      25
Japan     13
Line of duty     9
Nayef road     20
Surfman    23
Telecaster   20
Too darn hot     5
Turgenev   19
Landslide either too darn hot   or line of duty ....Line of duty no mug either so dutch i think 
7.91 at 5/4  Too darn 
2.09 at 15/2 line of 
7.80 profit either 

Good luck today
1.40 Salisbury
Lots of nice 2 year olds making debut here, and race should produce lots of future winners. I like the Andrew Balding colt
Symbolize @ 11-4  Paddy Power
Heard he is well regarded at home

Very nice, I should have been on Villa earlier but only backed them for the playoffs.

i'm on both at 25/1 @yossa6133 higher stake on villa but happy with either

wow what a game . well done frank lampards lampard lampard or whatever it is they are called.

The 2nd of the 3 Hunter Chase nights and quality wise always the weakest of the 3 however this year's meeting is especially low on quality as well as being low on runners. Hopefully though there is money to be made and I think I have spotted some value throughout the card.
5.00 Allie Beag - I thought she wouldn't be without a chance at Fakenham on Easter Monday, but she jumped terribly that day. Amazingly given how weak that race was this is even weaker. Was beaten 16L when 3rd behind Legal Ok at Northaw which wasn't the worst effort in the context of this race. Jumping has to be a concern though given how bad she was at Fakenham and Fontwell is a tough jumping test.   Follow The Paint - Her form is nothing special yet she still has the best form in the race. She did win a race two starts back, but it was a very weak affair. Was also 3rd at Northaw like Allie Beag although I think she put in a better effort. She was running a decent enough race when falling at Kingston Blount in March which was possibly looking like her best run of the season. I do think her form from last season was better than what she has done this time around, but this is a dreadful contest and she won't find an easier opportunity to win under rules.   Here Comes Molly - Can't even win a maiden and would be a shock winner here.   Italian Symphony - Another who can't win a maiden and surely wont be winning this.   Sweet Lady Jane - Won a back end maiden last June where the 2nd was a long term maiden so that shows you how strong the form was. I am slightly wary though because of connections and she hasn't been since so impossible to know how much she has improved if at all. Percentage call is too oppose though.   Summary - This is a desperately bad race, but Follow The Paint's form easily makes her the one to beat. Allie Beag is the main danger, but she will need to jump much better than she did at Fakenham. Sweet Lady Jane needs to improve a hell of a lot to win, but at least she has won a race unlike the other 2 and there is obviously a bit of scope for improvement.   Follow The Paint 2pts @5/4 with William Hill and BetVictor   5.30   Steeles Terrace - I didn't think he was without a chance in the Fakenham Hunter Chase last week, but he was a non-runner in the end. That could be a blessing in disguise though as this looks an easier race to me. He proved last year he handles course and distance when he bolted up and then ran a cracker at Stratford behind Caryto Des Brosses. He was behind that rival again 2 starts back, but that was a good effort given how good that horse is.   For 'N' Against - Struggling to get his head in front this season and that form leaves him with plenty to find in this.   Play The Ace - Never really thought he stays 3m and it looked that way again at Perth on his first start back in a Hunter Chase. Having said that he was well beaten in the end and he would need to come on for it which he could well be capable of doing given his previous form.   Witness In Court - No surprise he was well beaten by Monsieur Gibraltar at Kempton on his first start since October 2017. He had nothing to beat in behind so I don't think he achieved a great deal. Being sent a long way though and Gina has been booked so certainly wouldn't rule him out.   Summary - I'm going to go with youth here and back Steeles Terrace. He has come up against some good rivals this season and run with credit and as we know these conditions really suit him. I think Play The Ace is the main danger as he will prefer this shorter trip and it was only 3 starts back he ran 2nd off 134 at Market Rasen. Witness In Court wouldn't be a surprise winner either.   Steeles Terrace 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 and most others   6.05 Desert Retreat - N/R   Kit Barry - I never thought I would see the day when Kit Barry was favourite to win a Hunter Chase and not only that, but he is long odds on as well. Look he is a solid enough horse and consistent enough, but I can't say I fancy backing him to actually win at such short odds. The 2nd at Cheltenham was another solid enough effort and it is certainly the best form in the race, but he usually finds something to beat him.   This Breac - Should be 2nd favourite for me and although he was well beaten at Dingly a couple of weeks ago, he ran really well before not staying 4m. It was a return to form having pulled up on his two previous starts after winning at Ampton in March. He was a good 3rd    West Lake - Was well beaten the last time he was seen in a weak race at Fakenham and was pulled up in this on his only other Hunter Chase start in 2017. The key to those efforts though is they both came on soft ground and he will prefer this quicker surface for sure. Been off for 15 months so that is a concern, but could hardly have found a weaker race and if he is fit he wouldn't be out of this.   Summary - Kit Barry could easily win this, but I just can't back him at odds on especially if that Cheltenham effort has left a mark so I am going to back the two outsiders This Breac and West Lake both of whose form isn't that far away from Kit Barry's and This Breac was 3rd in a stronger renewal of this last year.   This Breac 1.5pts @ 6/1 with Bet365 and most others West Lake 0.5pts @ 20/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power   6.40  Obviously Monsieur Gibraltar should win this very easily. Granted he only just won last year, but he was much the best horse in the race and was just given a poor ride on the night. Dont Do Mondays was 2nd to him that night and he should fill the same spot again as he has done well again this season. He ran a superb race in the Foxhunter to finish 7th behind Hazel Hill and he has won both points since. He was 40L behind Hazel Hill that day and Kelvingrove was the exact same distance behind Hazel Hill at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago. He never really travelled that night though and although he ran OK at Chepstow on March, I think Dont Do Mondays has achieved more this season.   Monsieur Gibraltar to beat Dont Do Mondays 2pts f/c   7.15 Wonderful Charm is now a non-runner after being found lame this morning. I just wonder if Southfield Vic might run now given how bad the race is. It is a case of waiting and seeing. Sam Red ran well to finish 3rd at Cheltenham, but that was a really tough race which will surely have left a mark. Adrenalin Flight was a well beaten 3rd in this last year and isn't the most consistent horse although he has won a couple of times this season. In theory Sam Red should finish 2nd, but if that Cheltenham race has left its mark then Adrenalin Flight might be up to finishing 2nd but we shall wait and see what happens to Southfield Vic.     7.50 Ballycash - Has a double squiggle in the pointing form book and isn't even rated which tells you all you need to know.   Carrig Dubh - An easy winner last time although he didn't beat an awful lot. The 2nd to Timmie Roe at Siddington in March is for me his best piece of form this season.    Dandan - Won a match at Larkhill, but the 2nd seems to have injured himself during the race. Other race he won this year was a 3 runner race at the same venue in March where the 2nd bled. Some of his placed form isn't bad although last season he finished a few lengths behind Carrig Dubh. Last run in a Hunter Chase was 3 years ago when he was 5th behind Sam Cavallaro at Cheltenham which wasn't a bad effort. At least we know he handles quick ground.   Earth Leader - Clocked the quickest time of the day when winning at Stafford Cross last time where Ballycash was 1 and a half fences behind in 3rd. His two previous wins both came over 2m4f . He bolted up when winning his maiden at Ston Easton in March when winning by 30L and he clocked a faster time than the other race over 2m4f on the card. Didn't show a great deal for Paul Nicholls in 3 starts last year, but has progressed nicely this year and looks primed to run a big race on his return to rules.   Legal Ok - Was 2nd to Dark Mahler on his penultimate run under rules back in 2017 and pulled up either side of that. He seems to stay better now as he usually pulls hard and makes the running. Has won 2 of his 3 points this season and his handicap mark of 90 looks on the low side based on what he has done. He returned in April at Barbury and basically had a solo because of how clear he was at all stages of the race and he won by 30L. The 2nd home won his next start. He then dropped back to 2m4f but bumped into a good one from the Tom Ellis yard and he couldn't get an easy lead. On Bank Holiday Monday he went to Northaw and hacked up in the quickest time of the day. We know he handles quick ground and I suspect he will play catch me if you can.   Poyntzpass - Struggled in 3 points this season and was poor under rules last year.   Steel The China - Won a really bad Restricted at Charing on Easter Saturday and likely to struggle here.   Un Huit Huit - Trainer won this last year, but it would be a massive shock if he were good enough. Maiden he won was a match on Easter Saturday and then he was well beaten at Northaw. On times it suggests he has a lot to find with Legal Ok.   Summary - Carrig Dubh and Dandan have place claims, but the winner should either be Earth Leader or Legal Ok. I certainly respect the formers chances, but at the prices Legal Ok has to be the play as this track suits front runners and if he gets into a nice rythem out in front then he could be hard to catch.   Legal Ok 2pts @ 3/1 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor   8.25 O Maonlai - Strangely doesn't seem to be seeing out the 3m trip in points this season and it has be disappointing that he hasn't won one yet. Was 2nd in a couple of Hunter Chases at Exeter and Newton Abbot last season and in the context of this race they are strong pieces of form. Two concerns here are if he is in the same sort of form this season and Tamby Welch is very inexperienced. The other issue is the price as he is very short in my opinion as much as he is the horse I would have as favourite.   Red Inca - Very lucky winner last time as he was the only finisher and he wasn't going to win. As much as this is weaker than the 2 Hunter Chases he has run in before at Cheltenham he has struggled in both. The Maismore and Bitterley efforts prior to the Paxford win weren't bad efforts, but even so I don't really fancy him for this.   Scorpion Star - Had no chance at Kempton 3 weeks ago and although this is weaker I still don't think he acheived a great deal in that. His last win was in a selling hurdle at Newton Abbot in October off 79 which shows the sort of level he is at.   Tusa Eire - Ran in the Cheltenham Bumper in 2011 but has only run 8 times since. Went missing at the end of 2012 until running in 3 Irish points 4 years ago. Needless to say he would be a very surprise winner.   Exclusive Rights - Just denied in this by Numbercruncher last year and she really does deserve to win a race under rules given how well she has run on occasions including in a couple of handicaps last summer off 93. Granted she ran terribly at Sedgefield last time, but something was clearly not right that day and you can always forgive a horse a bad run. She is more than capable of winning this.   Summary - Has to be Exclusive Rights for me in this. If she can bounce back from the Sedgefield effort then she is more than capable of landing the spoils. O Maonlai is the only realy danger in my view, but he is odds on at the moment and that is too short for me. At the current prices I think she can be backed e/w.   Exclusive Rights 1.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with William Hill

Positive team selection from derby in so far as no nugent and only one holding midfielder in Johnson.
This should be an open game. No more bets for me but at the prices the draw is probably value at 3/1 as it would suit Leeds.

Leeds vs Derby
The Championship Play-Off Semi-Finals end tonight when Leeds look to play out their 1-0 advantage from the first leg against Derby in this 7:45pm kick-off at Elland Road. The winners of this tie will qualify to play Aston Villa for the right to be in the Premier League next season.
Leeds did enough to take the win in the away first leg but this tie is far from dead and buried. Kemar Roofe is the most noteworthy absentee from the Whites line-up. The former Oxford attacker has scored 4 goals in 3 games against the Rams this season so he'll be badly missed. The duo of Adam Forshaw and Pontus Jansson are also both likely to be missing for Marcelo Bielsa's side. Not ideal for the Yorkshire side.
Derby will be hoping their attacking riches will step up in this game having failed to breach the stern Leeds defence in the first leg at Pride Park. Frank Lampard has had an impressive first season in English league management. He'll possibly be without in-form Martyn Waghorn but it's hoped that Duane Holmes will be fit despite coming off injured in the first leg.
There is one daunting fact that does not bode well for Derby ahead of this game. No side that lost the first leg at home in the Championship Play-Off Semi-Finals has ever gone on to qualify for the Final. The Rams would have to buck the history books to qualify for the next phase at Wembley.
Bielsa's side have got the hoodoo over Derby having beaten them three times already this season. Derby have also been terrible on the road recently with just 1 win in their last 10 away games. I think all signs are pointing towards Leeds getting the job done here to set-up a mouth-watering showpiece event against Aston Villa for a place in the top flight.
Leeds to Win @ 1.75 with Betfred
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.11 with MarathonBet

When derby had their good run early in the season-they were playing with marriott up front. I said before i cannot understand why lampard has favoured nugent over him if waghorn is unfit as he offers very little goal threat. If Nugent starts i would take this as a negative and fancy Leeds to win again, but the price is too short for me to get involved.

leeds v derby
Mateusz Klich has been yellow carded in 4 of the last 5 games. His card in the first leg was for a head butt which shows a lack of discipline. I will back him for a card at 11/4 (hills).
I have also bought jamie shackleton's goal minutes at 7 with spreadex. He looked lively when coming on as sub in  the first leg (void if does not start).