Hunter Chase - 4.55 Warwick

[Darran]

I shall start with Huntingdon and a good result with Saffron Wells winning. Some might say he was a lucky winner and I do think Bletchley Castle would have probably one but for the awful mistake 3 out, but as I pointed out in the preview his jumping was always going to be an issue so it was no surprise he threw in a howler. As we all know jumping is the name of the game and no doubt his supporters will have wished the race was run whilst the sun was still out. Given he went into the open ditch first time around going as fast as Black Caviar it was some effort for him to finish as close as he has. I wonder if trying him over hurdles might work for him. Blackwood Rover came looked the winner, but he just didn't stay and jumped the last a tired horse. Basically the race fell into Saffron Wells' lap, but it had the look of that sort of race beforehand so whilst I didn't want to back him at odds on I was happy to take the chance at odds against and this time it worked out. Sand Blast ran OK, but didn't really see out the trip and the market move for Knockedoutloaded was strange given he was never going to get an easy lead.

Decent prize on offer as always for the Crudwell Cup and its an interesting race. Marcle Ridge is favourite on the back of his dominant Cheltenham win. He only knows one way of running so will be attempting to make all. He is clearly progressive and he jumped really well at Cheltenham, but as I said in my review of the card it was a bad race and beating Kit Barry is nothing special.

Killaro Boy is making his UK debut and his first run for 251 days. He was 3rd at the Punchestown Festival last year in a handicap hurdle off 114 and he is rated higher over fences. I'm not sure he is going to stay and he will need to given the favourite will be going off at a good gallop. Given it is his first run for so long as well that is also going to be a concern. He could win, but I just wonder if its a case of giving him a run ahead of a summer campaign.

Garde Ville won this race last year and then went on to win the John Corbett Cup the week after. He was impressive in this last year and at his best he would have a very good chance. The problem is I just don't think he's been quite as good this time around. He has won twice, but finishing 2nd has become  a habit. He looked the winner at Bangor back in March only for Optimised and Unioniste to overtake him. That was good form, but it has what he's done since which is a concern. He won next time in a 3 runner race at 2/5, but has finished 2nd in his next 4 starts including Tabley on Sunday. I think he is at his best on softer ground this will be his 7th race in the last 2 months so surely he wont be at his best.

Chase Me has won 3 on the bounce after taking a while to break his maiden tag, but hard to see how he can take the leap to win a race like this. A handicap mark of 80 could look attractive though if they decided to exploit that. Master Sunrise ran better than the bare result suggests at Cheltenham and he does look a big price again as it was certainly a step up from his first two efforts where he sulked. Back down in trip I think he can run well again, but surely they will be looking to exploit a falling handicap mark in a summer handicap. Crazy he is the same price as After Aspen as I type as I know which one I wouldn't be wanting to back in a match bet especially as Master Sunrise ran much better than he did at Cheltenham.

As much as I don't think he beat much at Cheltenham there are questions about his main rivals here and if he puts in the same sort of performance I think he could be hard to catch so I make him the bet.

Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill

 

[yossa6133]

Jumped and travelled, just beat by a better horse who was pretty impressive.