Hunter Chase - 8.40 Huntingdon

[Darran]

Before I get into the Huntingdon race just a quick look back on the Aintree bumper on Friday. First of all the selection You Too Bonny Lass ran way below her debut run at Hereford and was a big disappointment. The turn of foot she showed that day wasn't there on Friday and connections might be wishing they had sent her to the sales instead. Maybe she will turn out to be a one race wonder, but it will be interesting to see what she does next and if she can bounce back. 

The winner paid a small bit of his price tag back and I thought it was a good effort from Garry Clermont considering a 2m1f bumper isn't going to suit him. He will be interesting to follow next season under rules. Dino Boy made him work very hard for the win and it was a good effort from him as well as Granny's Secret in 3rd and Roseisaroseisarose in 4th. Those 4 pulled well clear of the rest who were headed by Merchant House who as I thought was not suited by this test. The form of these point-to-point bumpers have been very hit and miss going forwards, but this one could be worth following the form of in future.

I'm pretty certain this Huntingdon race used to be restricted to horses from the local pointing areas, but this year horses from all over the country have been allowed and it is two of those who head the market. Saffron Wells is odds on as I type. Ahead of the Cheltenham race I thought he would cope with the drop down in trip to 2m, but he didn't and all he did was stay on behind Sam Cavallaro. The 2nd to Herbert Park is good form as well which came the weekend before the Cheltenham effort. For me they are the best two pieces of form in the race and he is the right favourite.

Bletchley Castle has two ones next to his name and he won those races by 18L and 30L. The problem for me though is he didn't beat very good horses with Fair Exchange badly out of form this season and Mirs Choice just not very good. He ran in Hunter Chases at Taunton, where he achieved little in coming a distant 2nd to Master Baker, and at Stratford where he pulled up. His jumping over rules fences isn't the best and that could be an issue round here. I'm not sure he truly stays 3m but he might get away with it round here.

Bletchley Castle is a front runner, but so is Knockedoutloaded and they could take each other on. He loves Peper Harow as he won for the 3rd time and the value 10 days ago, but the odds on favourite who had beaten him by 12L at Northaw fell at the 5th so it might have been a lucky win. He does have Gina on top which is a big plus, but his form is nothing special. 

The fact Blackwood Rover is rated 72 shows how poor his form was the last time he was seen under rules. He has won his last two points so does have that going for him. He was all out to win them though one over 2m4f and one over 3m. I'm not sure he's desperate for this trip and I would be more interested in him in a weak handicap over the summer than in this.

I sort of think Sand Blast is overpriced, but at the same time I don't really think he can win. He found winning hard under rules and he is 0-12 in points, but he has run well this season when ridden by Antonia Peck. The pick of the efforts was when they were beaten a short head at High Easter in March. He hasn't been at that level the last twice though and was last at Garthorpe last time out. The other concern was he was awful in two hunter chases last season. He might be worth a small bet in the betting without markets in the morning though depending on price.

Torran Na Dtonn looked like he might be progressive in 2017, but he went missing for nearly two years. He returned with a promising effort in December when falling at Cottenham and then fell at the same track later that month when getting into contention. I was at Charing when he was 3rd and I thought he went off way too hard and then paid for that effort late on. He did though make it further at Stratford than Bletchley Castle although they both pulled up. His last run he was well beaten by The Gunner Brady, but he at least has won since. Again he might not win, but I'm not sure he should be as big as 40/1 in this field.

I think Safron Wells is the most likely winner, but I don't want to back him at odds on so I will wait to see if we get a drift before having a bet on him. I don't think Sand Blast and Torran Na Dtonn should be so big in the betting, but at the same time I'm not sure either can win the race. Again I will wait and see what the morning brings as regards to their prices in the betting without markets. So at this stage there is no bet.

[yossa6133]

5/4 with Marathon at the moment.

[Darran]

Thought Saffron Wells would go odds against and he did this morning. I have waited to see if the drift would continue but it hasn't budged, but the 5/4 with Marathon is a fair price and any odds against that you can get is worth taking for me. Having said that my son wants number 2 to win so maybe I should just listen to him!

Sand Blast has been nibbled at in the betting so clearly others have the same idea I have. My suggestion is backing him and Torran Na Dtonn in the betting without the front two with Bet365 at 3/1 and 7/1.

Saffron Wells 2pts @ 5/4 with Marathon

Sand Blast betting without the front 2 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Torran Na Dtonn betting without the front 2 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365

[yossa6133]

Another winner, cheers Darran. Bletchley Castle a bit unlucky with that bad mistake and the standing start.