MCLARKE

Almost threw it away. A profit of £130. Total for month +£150.
DONCASTER 12.55
MAGIC DANCER 5/1
£20 WIN BET365
 

Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.

Almost threw it away. A profit of £130. Total for month +£150.
DONCASTER 12.55
MAGIC DANCER 5/1
£20 WIN BET365
 

Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.

Trends for this race.
59 horses have carried more than 10st 10 lbs and only 2 have won. This reduces the field to 5.
22 horses ran less than 22 days ago and all lost.
This reduces the field to 3, CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY, MILITARIAN and ROMAIN DE SENAM.
28 horses have had forecast odds of greater than 12/1 and all have lost.
This leaves ROMAIN DE SENAM - currently available at 22/1.

Almost threw it away. A profit of £130. Total for month +£150.
DONCASTER 12.55
MAGIC DANCER 5/1
£20 WIN BET365
 

CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY also fits my criteria for Nicky Henderson's December runners so I will also have a bet on him at 16/1. Also fits in to my young handicappers system.

Trends for this race.
59 horses have carried more than 10st 10 lbs and only 2 have won. This reduces the field to 5.
22 horses ran less than 22 days ago and all lost.
This reduces the field to 3, CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY, MILITARIAN and ROMAIN DE SENAM.
28 horses have had forecast odds of greater than 12/1 and all have lost.
This leaves ROMAIN DE SENAM - currently available at 22/1.

Unfortunately it's not.
It's a lot easier to make money on the stock market than with horse racing. The average investor on the stock market will make money, the average punter on horse racing will lose money.
The rule that works well on the stock market is the 200 day rule. When the share price is above the 200 day moving average then it is time to buy, when it is below then it is time to sell.
The problem with trainers is what period to use, x days or weeks or x number of runners.
I might do a bit of research unless somebody already has an answer.

Barry Hills is the man in question. I’d find  it hard not to go ew on a certain price. 

The danger with the longer odds selections is the psychological impact of long losing runs and the potential impact on the betting bank.
I also find that with my successful systems the odds generally shorten and better value can be obtained by taking the early prices.

Friday 11/12/2020
Doncaster 03:25 BUSHYPARK
f/c. 6/5
Stake =  10 pts. WIN

Almost threw it away on the run in, a nervous few seconds.

I think BOG is definitely shrinking with time limits as to when you can avail yourself of it. You can foresee a time when it'll only be available between 10.00 and 10.30 AM on the day of the race !
As for the Naps comp ...... I don't think it matters as long as everyone is treated the same
For the first few years I was doing the Naps comp it was settled at SP ...... that probably made life easier for the admin but it took away part of the 'fun of the chase' which is obtaining a value price

I haven't had much time for analysis today so I'm just going for one selections at Newcastle
12.45 Nc Engarde £6.20 win at 7/4 (just missed 2/1 with Bet365) 15 points score
Interesting that Capard King in the 12.15 is about 5/2 with Betfair and scores 5.75 points.  whilst Malystic scores 13.5 points in the 1.20 at Newc.  which is at a best price of around 5/4. However, the latter selection is in a handicap where all the horses are supposed to finish in a dead heat.  That being so it seems to me that Engarde has to be the better value bet, doesn't it?
Nb my new staking regime means I will be placing larger stakes than normal on my shorter priced selections.  This being so my £134.21 Singles balance is woefully inadequate to cope with my revised betting stakes.  What I am going to do is increase my bank to £500 from today.  There is no trickery here.  I am very happy to acknowledge that I have to write off £265.79 loss from my original bank of £400.  The loss occurred mainly because of my misplaced idea of backing so called good things at higher prices.  I will still sometimes back horses at longer odds but am stream lining the bets in relation to my new criteria.  I will leave most of the long shots to @Bathtime For Rupertand @richard-westwoodin the future who have proven to be far better at it than me
Only one win selection today that one.  Engarde drifted in the betting out to 100/30 and in-running I saw it at 10.0 plus.  Fortunately it came through and won.  I have no idea how Sunset West became 6/4 favourite.
Anyway my replenished betting bank started at £500 and a profit of £10.85 brings the tally to £510.85
I will retain my Multiples balances which stand at £580.04 (£800 Bank) and the top rated one with a deficit of £37.65 c/fwd.  The intention is to get them both back into a small profit and perhaps think again after that happens.
There is some class racing at Cheltenham tomorrow.  I am content just to work just through a single meeting these days whereas I used to try and look through all of them in case I missed out on a good opportunity. 
 
 
 
 

Very well done ?

4th @ 80/1 certainly did outun its odds!
Horses for courses comes to the fore again.
 

todays selections

BANGOR-ON-DEE 13:30 Accordingtogino 15/8 win

CHELTENHAM 13:50 Top Notch 9/2 win

CHELTENHAM 14:25 Storm Control 13/2 e/w 3 Places

CHELTENHAM 15:35 On The Blind Side 4/1 win

plus e/w yankee

another that scored highly
BANGOR-ON-DEE 14:05 Poker Play 6/1 (discounted only 4 runners)

2nd
+£8.00
p/l+£148

I'll stick with Nicky Henderson, he did have a 15/2 winner today despite another 2 losing favourites.
In the 1.50 at Cheltenham he has 2 runners, both best priced at 9/2. I'll go with MISTER FISHER, being the younger horse.
He also has 2 in the 2.17 at Doncaster. I'll skip his odds on favourite and go for the less fancied CLARENDON STREET at 9/1.

Very good question! The accumulator selections are taken over on the Friday/ Saturday & Sunday by Tumbleweed King. I'm in charge of all the other selections that you see in the tips section. I can see what you mean by the confusion there and hope that clarifiess it a bit for you.

Good pick, hope you got BOG.

You knew I would have to investigate !
My database has 5 winners from 148 runners with a very poor AE of 0.59.
Nothing in the statistics to recommend her I'm afraid, even her 14 runners on heavy going have all lost.

Another nice treble for the tips today.

You knew I would have to investigate !
My database has 5 winners from 148 runners with a very poor AE of 0.59.
Nothing in the statistics to recommend her I'm afraid, even her 14 runners on heavy going have all lost.