MCLARKE
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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KEMPTON 7.15
INDIGO TIMES 7/4
BET365
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On 10/27/2020 at 12:29 PM, MCLARKE said:
A winner has helped to claw back some of the losses from my earlier foolish decision to bet in doubles.
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CATTERICK 4.25
GOD OF DREAMS 100/30
BET365
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NEWCASTLE 7.00
DAPHNE MAY
9/5 BETFAIR
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6 hours ago, ChasingDreams said:
Very good performance by Itchy Feet on reappearance and his jumping was much more assured after unseating his rider at the festival. Will no doubt win some races this season in my opinion and he’s one for the notebook. Sametegal was very disappointing and the trend of winning 10 year olds continues in that race with a mighty run from Minellacelebration. En Meme Temps seemed to lack fitness towards the latter of the race but first race in 10 months, so understandable.
I remember a system backing 10yos in these veteran races was very profitable. Looks like it may still be working although there aren't that many races.
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Nice one Ralphie, turned a losing day in to a winning one !
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CHELMSFORD 6.45
RED FOR ALL 13/8
WH
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CHELTENHAM 3.50
BOB MAHLER 16/1
SENSULANO 9/1
CLOTH CAP 11/2
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CHELTENHAM 3.15
Forecast odds < 8 gives an AE of 1.23.
This leaves :-
NEVILLE'S CROSS 9/2 BET365
I'D BETTER GO NOW 13/2 SPORTNATION
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Just realised this is a 5f handicap so I shouldn't have included it.
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Cheltenham 2.40
4 runner novice chase. Analysis suggests top or joint top weight and to exclude CD winners. This gives an AE of 1.28. It eliminates 2 of the runners and leaves :
NOT THAT FUISSE 7/2 BET365
SOUTHFIELD STONE 15/8 UNIBET
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There are a couple of decent class 2 handicaps at Doncaster over 10 and 12 furlongs. There have been 126 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Draw = 1. AE = 1.59. A very strong statistic with a strike rate of 21%.
Weight < 9st 1lb. AE = 1.15. As the going becomes heavier towards the end of the season then higher weights struggle.
Horse bred in UK. AE = 1.13. I don't have a great deal of knowledge of breeding but the country of breeding is quite influential in some instances. I suspect it is not used by many people in the selection process so it may provide a betting edge.
Age = 3 or 4. AE = 1.10. As the season progresses the younger horses tend to mature and perform better.
Forecast odds > 7/2. Again as the season progresses the weather and going becomes more variable and form becomes less reliable which impacts on the profitability of favourites.
Top rated in the 1.10 is CEPHEUS 1.15 - 13/2 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the weight, although it is heavily influenced by being drawn 1.
There are 3 joint 2nd with a rating of 1.08.
ICONIC CHOICE 9/1 BET365
FISHABLE 4/1 BET365
TULIP FIELDS 9/1 BET365
In the 2.20 the top rated is ISHVARA 1.08 - 8/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.
Rated 2nd is ABEL HANDY 1.05- 22/1 BET365. This horse is drawn 1 but is a 5yo bred in Ireland.
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Chelmsford 8.15, a class 6 handicap over 10 furlongs. There have been 115 class 6 handicaps over 10 - 12 furlongs at Chelmsford over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Days since last run < 15. AE = 1.26.
Forecast odds < 6/1. AE = 1.22.
Finished in top 4 last time. AE = 1.20.
Weight > 8st 12lbs. AE = 1.08.
Draw < 3. AE = 1.27.
Top 2 are :-
BAD ATTITUDE 1.14 - 2/1 BET365. This horse passes all the criteria apart from the draw.
BEAT THE BREEZE 1.06 - 13/2 BET365.
The same conditions apply to the 7.45.
JEN'S LAD 1.06 - 11/4 BET365
FALSE ID 1.04 - 16/1 BET365
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Highest value race tomorrow is the Group 1 Futurity stakes at Doncaster at 2.55, over a mile for 2 year olds. I have looked at all class 1 2 year old races over 6 to 8 furlongs during September and October to calculate the most influential factors. There have been 115 such races over the last 6 years. Key factors are :-
Days since last run < 19. AE = 1.26.
Forecast odds > 9/2. AE = 1.12.
Course or distance winner. AE = 1.08.
Finished in top 5 last time out. AE = 1.05.
Horse bred in Ireland. AE = 1.04.
Draw > 4. AE = 1.08.
Top 3 are :-
MEGALLAN 1.09 - 11/1 BET365. This passes all the criteria apart from the fact that it was bred in the UK.
ONE RULER 1.07 - 4/1 BET VICTOR
BARADAR 1.07 - 20/1 BET365
There are 3 other races on Saturday that fit these criteria.
DONCASTER 1.45
INTRUSIVE 1.05 - 50/1 BET365
SHARK TWO ONE 1.05 - 8/1 BET365
NEWBURY 3.00
SETARHE 1.04 - 11/2 BET VICTOR
NEWBURY 3.35
NASTASE 1.06 - 14/1 BET365
ALBADRI 1.03 - 33/1 BET365
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NEWCASTLE 8.00
FORESHORE 7/1
£20 WIN BET VICTOR
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NEWCASTLE 7.30
ALEXEJ 11/8
BET365
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CHELMSFORD 6.00
ARABIC CHARM 13/8
BET VICTOR
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So did mine.
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Compared to when I first started betting with 10% tax and everything at SP the options today are fantastic.
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KEMPTON 8.15
GHERKIN 4/1
£20 WIN UNIBET
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KEMPTON 5.45
LOOKTOTHERAINBOW 4/7
BET365
£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
DUNDALK 8.00
CHATEAU MUSAR 6/1
£20 WIN BET365