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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing Chat- Tue 16th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I'll give the trends a run out although with the small fields I'm not sure how relevant they will be.

    Supreme Novice Hurdle

    83 have had forecast odds greater than 8/1 and only 1 has won.

    4 out of 31 have been bred in France, the record for other counties is 3 from 77.

    This leaves 1 selection, BLUE LORD, available at 10/1.

    Arkle Novice Chase

    All winners finished 1st last time. The other 36 runners all lost.

    This leaves SHISKIN and ALLMANKIND.

    There have been 4 runners at odds less than 5/2 and all have won.

    This leaves SHISKIN at 8/15, skinny odds but looks like a banker (if there is such a thing!).

    Ultima Handicap Chase

    103 have had forecast odds greater than 14/1 and all have lost.

    42 last ran more than 70 days ago and all have lost.

    This leaves CEPAGE, DISCORDANTLY, ALNADAM, AYE RIGHT and ONE FOR THE TEAM.

    58 didn't finish in the last 6 last time and all lost. This removes DISCORDANTLY.

    Weight less than 11st 6lbs 3 from 112, above or equal to 11st 6lbs 4 from 46. This leaves CEPAGE and AYE RIGHT.

    Horses finishing in 1st 3, 3 from 66, horses finishing 4th, 5th or 6th, 4 from 34.

    This leaves CEPAGE at 25/1. 

    Champion Hurdle

    Quite simple this one.

    Forecast odds less than 9/4 3 from 4, forecast odds greater or equal to 9/4 4 from 74.

    This leaves HONEYSUCKLE at 7/4.

     

     

    Placepots and Selections for today

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I will have a go because of the Tote offer but with the level of deductions I think it will be difficult to make a profit long term from this bet.

    I think the best option with the tote is to play it when there is a rollover.

    This used to be publicised quite a lot on the TV on Saturday but it doesn't seem to be mentioned anymore. Is there an easy way to find out if there is a rollover ?

    Placepots and Selections for today

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    I have gone back through my AW selections for the last couple of months for races where at least 2 selections have made my shortlist. There have been 14 meetings where I could have played the placepot and I would have won on 2 occasions, both with 4 out of 64 lines. 

    The dividends were £207.60 and £21.40 so I would have ended up with a net return of 2.31 points (17%).

    Not bad although less than my returns on my win bets.

    The nagging doubt that I have is the massive deductions of 27% from the pool. This is a very big hurdle to overcome to make a profit.

    Pricing your own race

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    Just 1 negative about him I have and that is his 90 day layoff ....if hed had a run in 42 days I wouldn't even oppose him

    I consider this a positive.

    AE for horses with a gap of 100 days or more is 1.26.

    For 42 days or less the AE is 0.92. For handicaps this is even lower (0.82).

    The strike rate is also higher for those horses with a long lay off.

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