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MCLARKE

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Posts posted by MCLARKE

    Racing Chat - Saturday 4th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Trend analysis for the Becher Chase.

    Top 8 in the weights 1 / 60.

    Forecast odds < 16/1 3 / 79, forecast odds 16/1 - 33/1 5 / 67.

    This reduces the field to 6, HOGAN'S HEIGHT 22/1, SNOW FALCON 28/1, VIA DOLOROSA 33/1, DIDERO VALLIS 33/1, HILL SIXTEEN 16/1 and COBOLOBO 33/1.

    Bred in France 5 from 40. This leaves VIA DOLOROSA, DIDERO VALLIS and COBOLOBO, all at 33/1.

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

    how do you mean proportional stakes... to me that is lsp or a percentage of the bankroll? 

    or do you mean putting more on short than long odds as the wins are less frequent?

    Proportional stakes to me means betting an amount that produces a set amount.

    So if the aim was to win £100 then I would stake £100 on a 1/1 shot, £10 on a 10/1 shot and £1 on a 100/1 shot.

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Plenty of selections on Saturday. I will have a small bet on the shortest priced in each race.

    Wetherby 0.27  Olly Golly 50/1
    Wetherby 0.27  Begoodtoyourself NR
    Wetherby 1.37

     Chef D'Oeuvre 20/1

    Wetherby 1.37  Cobra De Mai 10/1

    Chepstow

    		1.57  Broken Halo 9/1
    Chepstow 1.57  Manvers House 20/1
    Chepstow 1.57  Champagne Rhyt 33/1
    Sandown 3.00  Seaston Spirit 33/1
    Sandown 3.00

     Eclair De Guye 22/1

    Dodgy pulled up and unseated horses

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    On 10/18/2021 at 11:35 AM, MCLARKE said:

    I've had a look at these with the view to developing a system. 

    I can't find an angle for UR but for PU the rules I have ended up with are :-

    Chase only

    November - February

    Forecast odds 5/1 - 50/1

    Not group races

    Not Wincanton

    Not in the top 4 on the racecard.

    Over the last 6 years there have been 128 winners from 1,588 races with an AE of 1.38 and a ROI of 35%.

    With such a low strike rate there will be long losing runs but we'll see what happens.  There should be 1 or 2 runners a day.

    In November there were 2 winners feom 26 runners. The loss to LSP was 12.6 points but the profit to proportional stakes was a healthly 52% and the AE was 1.48. There were 22 runners at BSP of more than 10 and they all lost.

    I will post the selections in December but would recommend using proportional stakes.

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