MCLARKE
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Posts posted by MCLARKE
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Most winners.
Another odds on winner for @justanotherpunterputs him in a strong position for the most winners title.
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On 10/23/2021 at 11:31 AM, MCLARKE said:
Flat selection
Leopardstown 5.10
BOUNDLESS OCEAN 5/2
A poor end to the season with a loss of 4.08 points in October. Overall though a very successful season with 56 winners from 158 selections (35% strike rate) and a LSP of 29.36 points (19% ROI).
These selections are picked from a variety of systems that I run, they are generally the 3rd lowest odds (the 1st and 2nd I often use for the nap and the £20 daily challenge).
I have been running 9 systems this flat season and overall they have shown a poor returm of -1% from 28,309 selections. The most successfull system is based on non handicaps. The worst system has been one based on quick returners with a ROI of -15%. The strike rate for those horses running within 9 days has fallen from 13.5% in 2018 to 11.0% in 2020. I think @ralphie7's quick system has also suffered because of this. Whether it is just a blip or a new trend we will see.
For my selections I have tended to take the lowest forecast odds from my selections. However, my analysis of the season shows that those horses with forecast odds rank of 3 to 6 have performed best with a ROI of 4.2% from 12,870 selections. This is something I will bear in mind when I try to narrow down my selections.
- LEE-GRAYS, Wildgarden and gbettle
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Trends for the Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Haydock.
Bred in IRE 3/77, elsewhere 5/42.
This reduces the field to 3, BASS ROCK, DANS LE VENT and GLADIATEUR ALLEN.
Not in the top 11 by weight 0/36.
This leaves DANS LE VENT, available at 14/1 with 5 places.
- Wildgarden, gbettle, justanotherpunter and 5 others
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I think both have been included. I will take out the non runner in the next update.
- ipswich45 and Wildgarden
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Most winners.
- gbettle and Wildgarden
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Finally up to date.
Thank you for your patience over the last few weeks.
- Like A Roughie, mick33 and gbettle
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3 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:
That was the theory at start of thread but I knocked pulled up out and just do unseated
Historically UR have provided much better returns than PU. In particular in runners of 8 or less the return is even better. The sample size though is relatively small with 77 winners from 391 runners over the last 8 years.
- alexcaruso808, Bang on and LEE-GRAYS
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Almost there !
- gbettle, Wildgarden and calva decoy
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On 11/12/2021 at 6:43 PM, waggy said:
Sorry about doing two selections. Forgot I did one last night.
Thue rules are
- 1 bet per day, Max. If a member posts twice the latest one will count towards the competition.
So on this basis the 2nd selection is the one that will be used.
Personally, I'm not sure about this rule, to me it appears fairer to take the 1st selection unless it's a non runner. Any comments ?
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Very honest of you. I had manually adjusted my spreadsheet the day before for a foreign result and then forgot to put the formula back in the next day. I will amend in the next table.
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2 hours ago, sirspread said:
ooops my bad very sorry mate
No problem.
BILLY HILLS NAP TABLE - November 2021
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted