LePapo

The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter
0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25
0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50
1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10
1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7
For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.
And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman
And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him. 
I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.
Good luck for everyone during this fortnight

@LePapo Cheers for the comments, appreciated! I think that you're spot on with the vast majority of things. Roger Federer is everyone's favourite and mine too, all the other big names are in trouble and you don't go winning GSs without a bit of practice beforehand imo. Djokovic crushed Thiem, but Thiem was still suffering from both a flu and a jet lag according to his own words, so there's that. Other than that, I still stand by virtually everything I've said here above, not much has changed with the exhos imo. The Tiebreak Tens were interesting, not because Berdych won, but because Hewitt nearly beat Nadal, which is crazy if you consider that one guy is the world's number one and the other a retired veteran. A very short test, of course, and Nadal managed to hit one phenomenal shot during it, but still...hard to fancy Nadal to win it.
Tomic can't change anything imo, he should've been out today and I wouldn't be shocked to see him lose his final qualifying match honestly.
Thiem doesn't seem to be completely healthy still, but I'd love to see him do well. Wawrinka not likely to be a factor, Raonic likewise. Simon and Anderson are still my big underdogs and I still trust them somewhat.

first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

I'll have a go at responding in a bit more detail to your post. In my opinion betting on tennis is no different to betting on other sports like football. What I mean by that is whether you bet on tennis or something else you are always dealing with risk. There is no escaping that. It's just that the risks are different. In tennis if you bet on a player and for whatever reason they play badly or get injured then your bet is very likely to go down, whereas in football if one player has a bad day it might not matter because there are other players that can make up for it. Looking at it another way though, in a football match there are far more variables than in a tennis match and so logically it should be easier to weigh up whether you think a bet is worth taking or not.
As far as the unpredictability of players is concerned, if you follow tennis for long enough eventually you can get a read on individual players and players in general. This can help to identify traits and trends that will make it seem at least a little less unpredictable, for example the discussion recently about particular players and their temperaments and approach to minor tournaments. Personally, as obvious as it is I always try to remember that tennis players are human and also that playing tennis is their job. To that end, no matter how good they are they make mistakes and sometimes, just like in any job, they don't want to be at work. Motivation is a big thing in tennis and it's one of the things I try to think about the most, particularly when I'm considering backing any of the top players. As an example, Wawrinka is a player that I will not even consider backing unless he's playing in a Grand Slam as I don't think he is very motivated in other tournaments and I would argue his results back up that opinion.
Finally, whilst there have been some strange tennis results in the last few weeks - I'm thinking of Marrakech and even this week in Monte Carlo where Djokovic has twice been pegged back from a set and a break advantage by inferior players - these strange results are highly likely to be balanced out with lots of normal results. That variance is a big part of risk, and like I said earlier there is no way to avoid risk if you are betting on tennis or football or anything else.

is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.
ruud to win at 3.50
ruud to win a set at 1.80
medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.
good luck this week

is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.
ruud to win at 3.50
ruud to win a set at 1.80
medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.
good luck this week

is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.
ruud to win at 3.50
ruud to win a set at 1.80
medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.
good luck this week

is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.
ruud to win at 3.50
ruud to win a set at 1.80
medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.
good luck this week

is it me or ruud at 3.50 is massive value? ruud is clearly a clay courter, he did really well in rio and he's won all his tournaments on clay (2 futures and 1 challenger) in the last 52 weeks he has a record of 15-8 on clay in atp and challenger. Struff has a really decent record too he is 23-8 in the same conditions and he's been playing quite good recently. However he's already played 5 matches since April 10th, he struggled a bit in the first round against Mathieu. If struff wasn't in form i'd price this match as a 50-50 but given he's playing his best tennis recently i accept he's favourite prior to this match but honestly i don't see any reason to price him at 1.25 to me that's just poor value. Ruud is not some tomic or muller on clay, he can clearly perform well. This montecarlo surface is really slow so i expect long rallies and in a long match struff might start feeling some fatigue... so all in all is ruud to me to win this match and to win at least a set.
ruud to win at 3.50
ruud to win a set at 1.80
medvedev seems also a good value to me and on the outright i fancy thiem to win his quarter however 5.00 seems a bit short to me especially if he will probably face goffin and djokovic. nadal seems to have an easy road to the SF (Zverev seems the biggest threat here) but at 1.50 there's probably no value. Q1 is similar, can't see murray losing to any of his opponents... just kohlscrheiber can put him into some trouble but after reaching the final in morocco i don't know how much he's left on the tank.
good luck this week

Well, well, well, finally Bottas as come good but a bit late for me who has backed him at big odds the last two races. Anyway its good for the sport that we have someone who can mix it with Vettel and Hamilton.
Red Bull still seem a bit off the pace so not really challenging for the podium unless something goes wrong ahead and Riakkonen is clearly driving a different car to Vettel. It appears the top 3 spots are pretty much sorted. Its just a question of what order.
I fancy Lewis will get past Bottas on this track, i just think Bottas is not as ruthless as Rosberg was and would be satisfied with second place. Thats a dangerous mindset in F1 and Hamilton will take advantage without question or hesitation. He won from second on the grid a couple of years ago and I reckon he's fair value at 6/5 (Paddy Power).
Not much value around in the other markets but if pushed I would have a little bet on Massa to break into the top 6. The Williams car has gone well here and he starst 8th on the grid. I expect him to beat the Renault who is just in front of him and then its a question of one of the big three teams to under perform. It's quite possible and that would let in someone and Massa is probably going to be loitering in 7th/8th and be able to pick up the pieces. I don't fancy anyone from behind although Estaban Ocon is worth keeping an eye on from 14th on the grid.
Selections:
L.Hamilton 6/5 Paddy Power
Over 15.5 Finishers 5/6 Bet365
F.Massa Top 6 Finish Evens W.Hill
 

i'll back again grosjean to finish top 10. same reasons as last week. good car, he's done well here in the past years including 2 third places. last week it was a bit of disappointment as he couldn't get to Q2 due to a crash from giovinatzi and he ended up in the 17th place then in the race he finished 11th. i believe there are 3 places to be fought between 5 drivers (kyvat hulkember perez sainz and grosjean) and renault car doesn't seem to be ready yet so hulkember might be taken away from that list.  to conclude even odds on grosjean to finish top 10 seems good value to me.
forecast says rain won't even come to say hello this weekend so normally we should  have a nice race on sunday. 
then i like verstappen to finish higher than raikonen. i'm not entirely convinced yet but at odds against, backing him doesn't seem to be the worst idea .. some thoughts on that?
grosjean to finish top 10 at 2.00

Bahrain GP (4pm UK Time, Sunday)
No rest for the wicked and straight on to Sakhir for the Bahrain Grand Prix. The track was built for the 2004 GP and is the first race of the season that will be run under the floodlights. The race starts in daylight, 57 laps later its dark. 8 out of the last 10 races have been won from the front row and if Hamilton and Vettel keep up their personal duel then that stat will continue without much trouble. You would have to fancy those two will be sitting on the front row by 4pm Uk Time on Sunday. Plenty of overtaking spot on this circuit so we should get a decent race and we have only had one Safety Car since 2008 which bodes well for a lot of finishers. Last season technically we had 5 retirements but two drivers (including Vettel) didn't even start the race. The average over the last 10 races is 3 DNF's so we should be looking for over 15.5 finishers in my humble....... Latest news suggests Pascal Wehrlein will return this weekend for Sauber in place of Antonio Giovinattzi. He has been out injured and missed both Australia and China and that's a timely boost for Sauber who's best finish so far is a 12th place at Albert Park.  
Bahrain GP Stats

@LePapo @NoFear @StevieDay1983 @Sir Puntalot

I like odds on Grosjean and Kyvat to finish top 10. Grosjean was doing well in Australia when he was forced to retire due to a water leak....I think he was seventh when that happened. And in the qualies he got the sixth best time ahead of Massa, so the car as he has said, has a good potential. He even said he felt faster than Williams. It'll be the sitxh time he drives here, he's managed to get 3 top 10, last year he retired and in the 19th place. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around evens, i think there's value. To me 7-10 place will be fought by 5 drivers and I think Grosjean has a nice chance.
Then I also like Kyvat top 10, odds on him are shorter , almost 1.90 but he made a good impression in Australia. Last year he finished third in China although he was driving a Red Bull. The year before he retired and in 2014 he finished 10th with ToroRosso. Like I said, five drivers will fight for 3spots and I have some doubts about Renault, I think the car isnt ready yet... so this might be a fight between 4 drivers for 3 places...
And finally, I like odds on Verstappen to finish higher than Raikkonen. Only problem is that I was a bit dissapointed with Red Bull perfomance in Australia, the car seemed to slow so I'll probably wait the first practices or maybe the qualifiers to see how the car is doing.
my early bet for this race is 
Grosjean to finish top 10 at 1.98

I like odds on Grosjean and Kyvat to finish top 10. Grosjean was doing well in Australia when he was forced to retire due to a water leak....I think he was seventh when that happened. And in the qualies he got the sixth best time ahead of Massa, so the car as he has said, has a good potential. He even said he felt faster than Williams. It'll be the sitxh time he drives here, he's managed to get 3 top 10, last year he retired and in the 19th place. Odds on him to finish top 10 are around evens, i think there's value. To me 7-10 place will be fought by 5 drivers and I think Grosjean has a nice chance.
Then I also like Kyvat top 10, odds on him are shorter , almost 1.90 but he made a good impression in Australia. Last year he finished third in China although he was driving a Red Bull. The year before he retired and in 2014 he finished 10th with ToroRosso. Like I said, five drivers will fight for 3spots and I have some doubts about Renault, I think the car isnt ready yet... so this might be a fight between 4 drivers for 3 places...
And finally, I like odds on Verstappen to finish higher than Raikkonen. Only problem is that I was a bit dissapointed with Red Bull perfomance in Australia, the car seemed to slow so I'll probably wait the first practices or maybe the qualifiers to see how the car is doing.
my early bet for this race is 
Grosjean to finish top 10 at 1.98

Cant resist an early wager!!
5/6 Over 15.5 Finishers at Laddies
I'll have some of that

a bad loss for kyrgios, 5-4 up in the last tie break and losses both points on serve... miami crowd was a disgrace, i can't understand how they booed kyrgios when he gave his best
and after playing two hours yesterday and three today it seemed RF was ready to play another 3 more hours, really impressive for someone who is 35 yo...

Back Fabio Fognini to beat Rafael Nadal at 5.00 with Skybet
There's no doubt that Nadal is the favourite here, but come on, 5.00? He's not the best player in the world anymore, you know, and he's most certainly not playing his best tennis nowadays. Fognini is, on the other hand, and you just know that he'll be up for this one. I'll chance the Italian at odds this big.
Back Nick Kyrgios to beat Roger Federer at 2.50 with Skybet
This match didn't happen in Indian Wells, but it is very likely to happen in Miami and I don't see why Kyrgios should be such an underdog. He's playing his best tennis at the moment and he's always motivated against the big guys, while Federer had to save match points against Berdych after blowing a big lead in the decider. The Swiss number one seems to be drifting away a bit - and Kyrgios can take advantage of that in my opinion.

terrible tournament for me , but sad to see kei losing like this... every time he has a decent chance to win a big tournament he gets injured...
well just hoping sock can save the day, think he has a real chance against nadal. yesterday he just managed to get one bp against mahut... and that's pretty poor. socks completely in form and him winning at least a set and winning the match are my bets for tonight... 
good luck

terrible tournament for me , but sad to see kei losing like this... every time he has a decent chance to win a big tournament he gets injured...
well just hoping sock can save the day, think he has a real chance against nadal. yesterday he just managed to get one bp against mahut... and that's pretty poor. socks completely in form and him winning at least a set and winning the match are my bets for tonight... 
good luck

terrible tournament for me , but sad to see kei losing like this... every time he has a decent chance to win a big tournament he gets injured...
well just hoping sock can save the day, think he has a real chance against nadal. yesterday he just managed to get one bp against mahut... and that's pretty poor. socks completely in form and him winning at least a set and winning the match are my bets for tonight... 
good luck