LePapo

Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65...
-5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet

Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65...
-5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet

solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match. 

It may look like I've been a bit indecisive with my bets on tomorrow's games but I'd say I've split my stake across the main "shortie" bets and had smaller bets (sometimes smaller than I'd have liked) on the long shots.
Russia +31 at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >10.5 points at 21/20 with Lads
Russia >1.5 tries at 27/20 with Lads
Buy Russia tries squared at 3.7 with SX
Russia to win race to 10 points 9/1 Betway
Russian player man of the match 20/1 Betway
Russia most converted tries 17/1 888
At least 1 yellow card for each team at 11/2 Betway
I'm expecting Russia to at least attempt a more expansive game tomorrow and hoping that fatigue from a short turnaround won't be too much of a factor. Samoa have only won 6 of their 27 games over the last 4 years and only 1 (by 51 v Germany) by more than 20. The yellow card bet is only 5/2 with Hills.

after a solid opening match, i’m now 2-2 with overall less than a unit lost. 
ive bet on russia +29.5 against samoa, i haven’t seen yet a blowout in this world cup and teams are struggling to cover big handicaps (italy , england, japan). i was quite impressed by the russian side on friday. they put up a decent performance for about 50 minutes against japan. samoa is not a team that scores lots of points , in fact their highest score in the last 3 years was against usa B (48-26). so i think a 29.5 is quite a big task for the samoan side. had russia not play just a couple of days before the match this would definitely be a full stake bet for me. 
also i think the current handicap on argentina tonga is quite short. tonga was really poor yesterday against england, they never were a threat in attack and if england hadn’t made lots of handlings mistakes this would have been a huge loss for tonga. on the other side , argentina needs to win this match to keep alive any chance they might have to qualify to the QF. in theory they should go all in to win this match and to get the bonus point. i’ve already bet on -29.5 a days ago but the spread now is set at 23.5-24.5.. i’ll just wait the confirmation of the line ups ... 
i’m quite tempted on the handicap for uruguay against fiji as well. the line is currently at 31.5 i think and this might be a bit high given that fiji play on saturday. 
other than that, the outright bets are going better than expected. this is so far a low scoring world cup. i saw today one bookie is offering 1.80 on -308.5 tries. i think they just  didn’t update the odds so i’m almost certainly betting on that. 
 
 

2 out of 2 for me. The handicap was never in doubt maybe a bit during the first 10 minutes of the second half but overall it was a solid bet. +2.5 scored penalties looked nowhere near to be a winner at half time but eventually it was.. 
Not quite sure for tomorrow yet , the handicap on SA looks the most solid bet for me but might risk a bit more and bet on 1-12 points margin on SA.
I'm tempted to back argentina, i think there's been a bit of overreaction as they've lost 10 of their last 11 matches but truth is they've played 6 of them against NZ, SA and Australia and one more against barbarians.. Argentina usually overperforms during the WC, also they play with lot of pride which might be the differential in the match. they have nico sanchez who is more accurate than a sniper, so they should be fine with penalties and conversions..
Also, i've made an early bet on Arg -29.5 against Tonga.. the 92-7 loss against the AB shows how weak is their defense..
I'll skip aus fiji from the betting persective...

Net loss for me; comfortable win on the handicap bet but no joy with the rest.
Just taken an interest in the handicaps on tomorrow's games so far, treble with Hills (boosted) pays 8.724:
Australia -15, France -1, South Africa +7
Done the 3 singles, all at evens (got -14 Australia with Betway).
Strongest selection of the 3 for me is SA +7 though none are as confident as the Russia bet today.

I'm tempted by the 39-40 points handicap on Russia as well and +2.5 penalties to be scored at 2.20. I can see the russians deciding to shoot instead of going for a line out if the score is quite close or even japan early in the match just to be ahead in the score. They played a test match back in novemeber and japan won 32-27 after russia wasted a 22-10 lead at the first half. 7 penalties were scored in the match which would cover the spread...(although circumstances now are totally different) I think there's too much pressure on Japan, I even read today (cant remember if it was the captain or the coach) that said they were not favourites to win this match!! it can be a long match for japan if they dont get an early lead which will take some pressure off them. I think they'll eventually outclass russia but can't see them winning by more than 40 tomorrow.

Here's my bets on the opening game.
Russia +41 at evens with Skybet
Basically, if you discount games against Korea and Hong Kong, Japan rarely score 41 points, let alone win by that big a margin. Some people got some attractive low lines for Japan before Russia's recent poor results but I think the market has over reacted and I think Russia are more likely than not to stay within that start.
Russia to be shown the first yellow card at 15/8 with PP and >1.5 total cards shown at 3/1 with Hills
I just think both prices err on the generous side. >0.5 cards is odds on and Russia have to be favourites to receive the first one. On past experience I was expecting 9/4 to be the best price for 2 or more cards so 3/1 seems worth a go.
Anytime tryscorers: Selskiy at 17/2 with SX, Ostroushko at 9/1 with 888 and (all 14/1 with Lads); Gadzhiev, Vavilin and Fedotko
One will show a profit, I have happy memories of landing two 18/1 Russian tryscorers in one game back in 2011 so couldn't resist having a look at the prices for tomorrow.

nice job mate, my bookie is offering 1.75 on less than 242 conversions to be scored which according to your stats is just a massive price. will have a bit of research myself but definitely i'm betting something on that ! also i'm probably betting on georgia to score +7.5 tries and uruguay to score -4.5 tries, i'm tempted as well by argentina to score +13.5 tries. originally i had planned to have a bet on japan to qualify but i'm not conviced, i will just follow them closely and maybe i'll have a bet on their match against scotland.

My bookie offers Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10 and that will be my main outright bet. RB is just behind Ferrari and Mercedes. 1.75 on RB to win under 4.5 races looks value to me but not enough to bet on that. At 1.9ish i'd bet some money.
5 units on Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10

Liverpool to qualify looks massive value to me, the team is just flying now. They are at 2.8ish to do it so that'll be my main bet for the quarterfinals. They beat city 4-3 early this year and i think the team has improved since then, now they have van dijk, salah is messi now, lovren looks like a decent centre back now. I'll wait the international matches to finish to bet on them (in case salah gets injured) but all in all 2.8ish is a generous price to me, also aguero is injured , he's supposed to be fit for this match but he'll lack some playing time IMO. Liverpool DNB for the first leg looks a decent bet as well. 
3 units on Liverpool to qualify at 2.85
2.5 units on Liverpool DNB at 2.00

My bookie offers Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10 and that will be my main outright bet. RB is just behind Ferrari and Mercedes. 1.75 on RB to win under 4.5 races looks value to me but not enough to bet on that. At 1.9ish i'd bet some money.
5 units on Verstappen to win -2.5 races at 2.10

I had a bet on Edmund to beat Dimitrov in Brisbane haha . Tennis is an incredible sport, Anderson led him 2-1 in the first round and was a break up in the fifth but somehow managed to lost it, Basilashvili should have beaten him as well and Seppi was in full control for one set and a half but then he entered in some self destruction mode. And today he beats easily the number 3 in the world and he is now 6 sets away from winning a grand slam. just amazing

Well, I'm now getting ready to watch Sandgren-Edmund on Sunday.

I had a bet on Edmund to beat Dimitrov in Brisbane haha . Tennis is an incredible sport, Anderson led him 2-1 in the first round and was a break up in the fifth but somehow managed to lost it, Basilashvili should have beaten him as well and Seppi was in full control for one set and a half but then he entered in some self destruction mode. And today he beats easily the number 3 in the world and he is now 6 sets away from winning a grand slam. just amazing

Impressive from Berdych, although I don't even consider him anymore to go deep in big tournaments he always manages to find a way to reach at least QF/SF in grand slams and it's been 8 years in a row doing so. He has one more match to play to reach QF but it's a winnable match for him so hats off. Thiem has every chance to reach the QF. I think it would be too much for Chung to beat Djokovic. 
Regarding today's matches, I had thought about no tiebreak in nadal-schwartzman however odds are low imo. I imagine PCB run will end today. Kyrgios-Dimitrov is the best match of the day. I was expecting a more convicing performance from Kyrgios in the last round but he couldn't outplay tsonga and beat him with 3 tiebreaks. It should've been a 5 setter but tsonga threw away a 5-2 lead in the last TB. Dimitrov has a good serve so this match might feature a couple of tiebreaks. This should be a close match and I think there's slight value on dimitrov however not worthy enough to risk my money. And finally I'm backing seppi to get past edmund but with low stakes. Edmund physical condition is in doubt after that 5 setter under almost 40 degrees. I was expecting hotter conditions today to bet a bigger amount here but let's just keep it reasonable. Also the 40/1 on Seppi to reach the last four is alive and kicking so no need to overbet on him.
1.5 units on Seppi to beat Edmund at 3.15
 

Impressive from Berdych, although I don't even consider him anymore to go deep in big tournaments he always manages to find a way to reach at least QF/SF in grand slams and it's been 8 years in a row doing so. He has one more match to play to reach QF but it's a winnable match for him so hats off. Thiem has every chance to reach the QF. I think it would be too much for Chung to beat Djokovic. 
Regarding today's matches, I had thought about no tiebreak in nadal-schwartzman however odds are low imo. I imagine PCB run will end today. Kyrgios-Dimitrov is the best match of the day. I was expecting a more convicing performance from Kyrgios in the last round but he couldn't outplay tsonga and beat him with 3 tiebreaks. It should've been a 5 setter but tsonga threw away a 5-2 lead in the last TB. Dimitrov has a good serve so this match might feature a couple of tiebreaks. This should be a close match and I think there's slight value on dimitrov however not worthy enough to risk my money. And finally I'm backing seppi to get past edmund but with low stakes. Edmund physical condition is in doubt after that 5 setter under almost 40 degrees. I was expecting hotter conditions today to bet a bigger amount here but let's just keep it reasonable. Also the 40/1 on Seppi to reach the last four is alive and kicking so no need to overbet on him.
1.5 units on Seppi to beat Edmund at 3.15
 

If Zverev plays like he did against Gojo in the first two sets, he's going to win. If not, he's going to struggle. I mean, neither guy has been too impressive recently, Chung hasn't done all that much either, he only beat the out-of-form Isner before the AO and then the tired Medvedev in the previous round. Perhaps slight value on Chung, perhaps.

ok,this is too much even for this season-Shapovalov was leading 5;2 in the final set only to throw all away and lose next 5 games

Second round starts tonight, i'll bet on the players I mentioned a couple of days ago with a couple of extra bets that i found interesting. I fancy Shapovalov to beat Tsonga and I also like the bet on "to be a tiebreak? Yes" My bookie offers me 2.50 which I find an interesting price, both are more serve orientated players and this surface is a bit faster than normal hard courts. So I think there's a nice chance that the match features a tiebreak. On the other hand, I like "to be a tiebreak? No" on simon-PCB, both players are good returners, break serve lots of times, so i expect quite a few breaks in this match. I had considered Simon to win but the price is not attractive to me anymore. And finally I've decided to back Harrison to continue his run down under.
I would have liked to bet on NO TIEBREAK on Schwartzman-Ruud but my bookie doesn't offer that option. I'm having also a small bet on Seppi to reach SF. His section is really open now so why not trying a big longshot?
For wednesday I placed an early bet on Gojow.... to win a set against Zverev. He just didn't look solid today, Fabbiano failed to serve for the set twice!! 
4 units on Harrison to beat Cuevas at 1.63
3 units on "To be a tiebreak? No" on Simon-PCB at 1.95
2.5 units on Shapovalov to beat Tsonga at 2.52
2.5 units on "To be a tiebreak? Yes" on Shapo-Tsonga at 2.50
2 units on Istomin to beat Edmund at 2.87
0.5 units on Seppi to reach SF at 40
It feels like it could well be a clean day with full of winners or a solid 0-5 to start the second round.
Good luck to everyone

Second round starts tonight, i'll bet on the players I mentioned a couple of days ago with a couple of extra bets that i found interesting. I fancy Shapovalov to beat Tsonga and I also like the bet on "to be a tiebreak? Yes" My bookie offers me 2.50 which I find an interesting price, both are more serve orientated players and this surface is a bit faster than normal hard courts. So I think there's a nice chance that the match features a tiebreak. On the other hand, I like "to be a tiebreak? No" on simon-PCB, both players are good returners, break serve lots of times, so i expect quite a few breaks in this match. I had considered Simon to win but the price is not attractive to me anymore. And finally I've decided to back Harrison to continue his run down under.
I would have liked to bet on NO TIEBREAK on Schwartzman-Ruud but my bookie doesn't offer that option. I'm having also a small bet on Seppi to reach SF. His section is really open now so why not trying a big longshot?
For wednesday I placed an early bet on Gojow.... to win a set against Zverev. He just didn't look solid today, Fabbiano failed to serve for the set twice!! 
4 units on Harrison to beat Cuevas at 1.63
3 units on "To be a tiebreak? No" on Simon-PCB at 1.95
2.5 units on Shapovalov to beat Tsonga at 2.52
2.5 units on "To be a tiebreak? Yes" on Shapo-Tsonga at 2.50
2 units on Istomin to beat Edmund at 2.87
0.5 units on Seppi to reach SF at 40
It feels like it could well be a clean day with full of winners or a solid 0-5 to start the second round.
Good luck to everyone

First day of the open gone and 5 seeds are already out and lots of americans as well. My outright bet on anderson didn't last a day and it's a shame because that section of the draw is quite open now. Sock was poor today and pouille improved his record here to a flawless 0-4.
For tomorrow i've just considered donaldson but i think value now is almost gone. Then in the other matches I struggle to find some value, maybe verdasco that can produce another shock.
There are some early odds for wednesday matches and i like quite a few underdogs here. Simon looked well today, he's shown good form recently and has a nice record here while PCB really struggled today against an unkwown player. Then I fancy Istomin, again he's shown good form recently, good run in brisbane and it seems he likes conditions here (last year he beat djokovic) He'll face edmund who is having on a great form as well but he's played a 4 hour match and given how these two are playing I think 2.90 for istomin is great value. And finally Shapovalov against Tsonga, he beat him easily back in august, he outclassed tsitsipas today, has a great serve, good mobility while tsonga has just play his first match of the season so he might stll be a bit rusty. Then I think harrison should be too much for cuevas on hard court and i would have liked a bigger price on millman to continue his run here but at 1.65 i'll just ignore this match.
I'd like to read your thoughts about today matches and your early predictions for round 2.
goodluck

The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter
0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25
0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50
1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10
1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7
For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.
And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman
And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him. 
I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.
Good luck for everyone during this fortnight

The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter
0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25
0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50
1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10
1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7
For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.
And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman
And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him. 
I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.
Good luck for everyone during this fortnight