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  • Popular Contributors

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  • Posts

    • Torque
      STAKING PLANS
        1 hour ago, Sunshine said:

      What I meant, and why 'equally' was in quotes, was to treat all selections from a system, e.g. back top rated, the same in terms of the staking strategy. For me, I would back each selection to level stakes. How would you use the Kelly system in this situation?

      Expand  

      I understood that equally was in quotes. If you want to stake optimally then level stakes isn't the way to go, nor is any staking plan where the stakes are uniform in any way - even if the selections are divided into different bet types. So you have to make a choice between the convenience of rigid stakes which will likely lead to lower returns, compared to the extra work but higher returns of staking that is tailored to each bet.

      Most seem to agree that level staking is the best baseline to determine whether a system works and I'd agree with that, as if most of the bets placed based on a system contain value then eventually a profit will be shown. That concept has been refined by some so that the odds are taken into account, in terms of flat lower stakes for higher odds and flat higher stakes for lower odds or higher stakes at lower odds and lower stakes at higher odds and it's been refined even further by others in terms of fixed stakes at odds on and staking for a fixed return at odds against, for example.

      As for using Kelly to ascertain level stakes, that's what I meant when I said oxymoron. There's only two ways Kelly will suggest level stakes - firstly, if the bank, odds and assessed value are the same and secondly, on the rare occasions where by coincidence there's a low odds bet and a higher odds bet with differing levels of value. Apologies if I've misunderstood you - that can happen on here. It may also be that a lot of what I've written you already know, but of course for others that are reading this it might be informative.

    • silver fox
      £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
        6 hours ago, silver fox said:

      1.50 Sandown: Seraph Gabriel @ 3/1 (Bet365)

      Expand  

      Lost (3rd)

      Month -£161

    • bymatrix
      Naps - Friday 25th April

      6.55 Kilbeggan  Elusive Guy  ( each way )  8/1 Bet 365

    • Alastair
      Naps - Friday 25th April

      Killbeggan  6.25 Look To The West.  Bet365. 8/13

    • harry_rag
      STAKING PLANS

      I'm going for it! First attempt in some time of applying any sort of logic to my staking approach apart from pretty much level stakes.

      Too much risk of long losing runs for me with the full on doubles approach so this feels like a more comfortable half and half alternative. Previously came up as doing well when my bets were run against various systems (so did Kelly to be fair).

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