BBOTD 14th of September

[Aidymac]

Green Lightning - Haydock 4:30 This is a very interesting horse tomorrow and has a lot in its favour in my opinion. It has the vital draw on the outside, the trip is fine, stable is in form, was well gambled on last time and failed, has won on both heavy and good ground so ground is fine and has an interesting sequence of runs as i will explain shortly. I have an interesting draw statistic also. The draw at Haydock is absolutely vital , outside stalls at 1 mile plus seem to do exceptionally well BUT the very outside stall WINS roughly 1/4 of all the races at 1 mile + and thats an amazing statistic in my opinion. This horse is drawn in Stall 10 tomorrow on the very outside. The trip tomorrow is fine as it has won over 1 mile and over 1 mile and 4 furlongs so it should be capable of handling the 1 mile and 3 furlongs tomorrow no problem. Mark Johnston's stable are in fine fettle. The man is a genius if you ask me, and you should never take form at face value with his horses as they go in and out of form very regularly but no doubt he is always 1 step ahead of the handicapper which makes him so successful. This horse was very well backed last time out. Was backed into odds-on favourite only to finish last of 8 at Thirsk. That run was so ridiculously bad to be true. Wasn't it? It surely cannot be that bad? Money back tomorrow? The ground tomorrow is no problem at all in my opinion. The forecast tomorrow is good ground with soft ground on the home straight. It should be fine as it won on Heavy ground at Nottingham and good to firm ground at Newmarket. Maybe its a coincidence but this is a lightly raced horse and it has had an interesting sequence of results for its runs. It is as follows... Unplaced-Unplaced-Won-Unplaced-Unplaced-Won-Unplaced-Unplaced-????? Maybe its just a coincidence but going by the sequence its due a big run tomorrow.... My conclusion tomorrow is that the horse is much better than its last run. It is an out and out galloper and on that soft ground in the home straight it should suit its running style. Perfect draw and im expecting a big run. The danger is Amazing Blue Sky for me but the Ruth Carr stable is really struggling for winners so i really fancy this one to place if not win tomorrow. 1 Point win @ 11/2 (Hills) BOG

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 4.50 Lingfield Little Edward looks massively overpriced on recent efforts and current mark. Was rated at 92 at first start of this season now down to a realistic 68 and last handicap win comes off 89, has won 5 times over this course and been running well of late and goes especially well around here on lingfields fast home turn. 0.5pt e/w little edward 15/2 Hills

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 4.30 Haydock ORIENTAL CAVALIER - 8/1 with the bookies even though only a 5/1 on the Sporting Life tissue so potential value if their prices are accurate. Willing to take on the two favourites as they may cost each other the race and although I want to back Green Lightning and feel he will go in again soon, with a questionable attitude I think OC is a safer call. Won at Chester two runs ago and ran well at York last time out. 8/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win.

[mowgli77]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September Amanda Carter 4.30 Haydock 13-2 W.Hill BOG - WIN Back down to a rating of 75 and won by 8 lengths off this rating already, destroying Demolition, which ran well since. Absolutely no doubt it can win off this mark, Fahey's horses running well and Hanagan still banging in the winners recently. Has won here on its only visit and also won over the distance. No excuses this time out, was on an all weather surface last time out. Out of form but so are half the field.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 3.30 haydock Westwood destroyed her field last time out and runs off the same mark here.Is a course and distance winner and should do well if allowed an easy lead. Dwyer has won on her the only other time he has ridden and should know whats required. 1 Pt win 7/1 Bet365

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 4:10 Yarmouth - Sairaam Bit of a long shot here but looking at the runners' records I think this 4yo has a chance. The trainer scored a 16/1 on a low rated (compared to the rest of the field) horse in a seller on Monday, and Sairaam has a wealth of experience to call on. She has won three races with low weight and takes John Fahy on board foyr this race which drops the weight below 8st. Sairaam is one of just three runners that have ran in the past month and her recent runs haven't been that bad considering the price she is available at. She's stepping up two classes but has previously won at the course and I believe that a place could be within her grasp. 100/1 paddypower - ew

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 16:30 Haydock Going to stick with Green Lightening despite his poor effort last time out as I really do feel there is another race in him this season, especially how well his win at Newmarket has been boosted since. I wrote this about the form of that win for my write-up on him LTO at Thirsk - "The form of the Newmarket race has worked out really well, he beat Harris Tweed by just under 2 lengths without much use of the whip at all and he has since won a 15 race handicap off a mark 1lb higher in great fashion, winning by 5 lengths. This was then followed by a 2nd place in a Group 3 race, was 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place and he only went down by three quarters of a length to Corsica who Mark Johnston also trains." Harris Tweed romped home in a listed race at Chester at the weekend, leaving his nearest rival 10 lengths behind which boosts this form even more. Obviously the longer my selection in this race goes without winning then the less we can relate back to this form so hopefully today he can put things right by getting himself back in the winners enclosure. Green Lightening is now only 4lbs higher than that win having been dropped 1lb in the handicap from his last two runs. I felt he ran well at York on his penultimate start, that was his first run since May and he finished a very creditable 6th place, I think he didn't quite stay the trip, his absence from the track may have taken a toll on that but he was back at an appropriate trip LTO. From my point of view his last run was really unexplainable as he was well backed and went off 10/11 favourite but weakened tamely and finished in last place. Gets a 9lb age weight allowance again today and he is also visored for the first time so lets hope that has a positive affect on him. He clearly isn't the most straightforward horse so whether he acts with the visor is really an unknown but he is still entitled to improve due to still being relatively unexposed having only had 8 previous runs. Has won on GF and Soft ground so I think whether the rain comes or not is irrelevant to his chances. 1pt win Green Lightening @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 3:30 Haydock - Lochan Mor - 1pt @ 6/1 (VC - BOG) Consistent four year old who rarely turns in a bad performance, he's very much a "nearly" horse who only has one career win to his name, yet he has finished second on eight occasions. He has only been out of the top four on one of his thirteen runs which is obviously impressive, he has lots of speed and will get back to winning ways soon enough if he keeps putting in these performances, he's currently rated as a 79 animal and hasn't been penalized much for his consistency as we sometimes see. He certainly has a race in him off this mark and he's coming back to Haydock where he put in a good performance last year when finishing 4/10 on his second handicap start. He's still relatively lightly raced for a four year old with only thirteen career starts and he's still open to some more improvement and with the ground likely to have a bit of cut in it, he should have ideal conditions come race time. Last time out Lochan Mor was stepped up to 7f after staying on strongly in his penultimate race over 6f but he found little in the final furlong over a trip that seems to stretch his stamina a step too far, he's dropped back to 6f here which, in my opinion, is by far his most effective trip. Combined with the slower ground I think he has a great chance of notching up win number two at the fourteenth attempt, his form on Good-to-Soft reads 2-2-2 and with a little bit of luck I feel that elusive "1" could be coming fairly soon, hopefully today. Jamie Spencer was on board for his last three races but now Hayley Turner gets the leg up again and she has been on board him four times, with form reading 4-2-3-4. She clearly gets on well with the horse and she has been riding reasonably well of late, she and Michael Bell have only teamed up 21 times at Haydock with 4 winners (19%) and they come down here with two tomorrow to a track here Bell has a decent 14% strike rate from 199 horses sent to Haydock. He came here with just the one horse at the start of this month and that was a winner. The last time Lochan Mor ran over 6f on GS ground in July, he came in a dead heat for 2nd place with Ginger Ted, who has since won on GS off a mark identical to the Bell horse. The 4th placed horse, River Falcon, has also won since, although off a mark of 70. The 6th placed horse, Commando Scott, has since won twice off marks of 60 and 65. Bravely, who was 10th of 11 runners that day has since won also but on a 6lb lower mark. That form stacks up fairly well and Lochan Mor had top weight to contend with that day, he's up against better horses here but carrying 9st 1lb as opposed to top weight against worse horses is certainly something I like to see. He should go very well as usual and with a bit of luck in running from a poor draw in stall 2 should see him have a good chance, he's 4/1 favourite in my book so the 6's available are quite generous in my opinion and I wouldn't be surprised to see him punted in tomorrow. Should run well, especially if the ground softens as expected.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 4.10 Yarmouth - Royal Rock 1pt win 7/2 (Bet365 BOG) Godolphin's Dafeef looks likely to be a warm order for this conditions race over six furlongs, however at the prices I much prefer the chances of Chris Wall's Royal Rock. A lightly raced six year old that has won on his seasonal debut for the past two seasons and today is having his first run for 315 days. Signed off last season by winning a Group 3 and today makes his reappearance at a course where he has won previously. Good to soft ground looks ideal and Chris Wall's excellent record at the track is another bonus. Dafeef is obviously a horse with potential but I prefer to be backing one with the form in the book and 7/2 looks worth taking.

[lewis24680]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September Hi, My first horse racing post, been dabbling on the horses for past 18 months or so up and down as you'd expect ! Three for today all look to have a great chance are - 350 lingfield Librettista for Kirsty Milckzeik and Cumani - great pair when teamed together Kirsty will give it everything and at 3/1 looks excellent value with not much to beat. 425 Haydock - green lightning - Johnson horse need i say more ?! You can always expect a good ride for your money from a Johnson horse again not much in the race and got a good draw and a good jockey again at 7/2 looks good value. 425 Listowel - Doctor Deejay 4/1. Ruby the master on board and getting weight from main danger Gimmis rock. Excellent value. Also in this race is Perfect buttons currently 16/1 and at a 1/4 the odds e/w 4/1 to place looks massive as hes finished third in last three or four races. I'm going to put those two in a straight forecast. My main three selections i will put in a trixie and back Doctor Deejay in a single may also double him up with Dettoris godolphin ride at Yarmouth. Frankie has a ride in the first at yarmouth which looks to have a good chance.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 5.10 yarm Karky schultz - 7/1 on sport life tissue, backable at 12/1. Acts on soft and has stamina for trip. Fit from hurdling. 12/1 ladbrokes, 1 pt win.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 15:10 Yar Nolecce - Improving sort. Got his nose infront LTO at distance. Trainer in fair form good draw and a decent claimer onboard 1pt win 11/4 paddty power

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September 2:00 Haydock - Scantily Clad - Back Made large amount of improvement from debut 6th when coming 2nd on next run lto. Was beaten by a good looking type from a top stable on that occasion but left a favourable impression in the process. This looks more straight forward, especially now that the 2 main dangers (Florestans Match and Manoori) are both now non-runners. Fully expect him to break the maiden tage here with the minimum of fuss 1pt win @ Evens William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September Re the above. William Hill just snipped him into 10/11, but the Evens is still available elsewhere so I will take Bet 365 BOG instead please. Thanks

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September Lingfield 3:20 Lang Shining - A horse I have been following since it dropped down in class and the weights.Has won 4 claimers so far since June and runs in another one today.Runs off its lowest ever mark today and with usual jockey Sophie Doyle claiming 5lb will be hard to beat. 1 pt Win bet @ 4/1

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September ORCHARD SUPREME 3.20 Lingfield. 1 point win. A bit hit and miss, but can take this in his stride if on song. Handles this surface and the trip's fine. Should get the run of the race and a decent jockey.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September Yarm 4.10 - Royal Rock - win at 11/4 BOG with bet365 Group 3 winning sprinter who makes a belated seasonal debut in this Class 3 conditions race. Has to give weight away but even with the 7 lb penalty he's only carrying 9-2, so the race conditions look quite favourable. Acts on the ground, is a CD winner, has won on seasonal debut in each of the last 2 years. Has Dafeef to beat in the betting, but I've got my reservations about that one ( see Lay of the Day)

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 14th of September DORIC LADY 4.40 Yarmouth. 1 point win. Needs to be on her A game, but I think she will be. The trip and ground look fine and gets in off a mark that can see her go close. All in all has every chance of a win this afternoon.