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Newmarket 7th july

hereforthep
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chris34

chris34

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Re: Newmarket 7th july With you hereforthep ;)!! 3.10 Newmarket Strawberry Daiquiri will never owe me a penny, and was lucky enough to see her in the flesh and win at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day overcoming a strong ground bias in real gritty fashion, she is a highly progressive filly with 6 wins from 8 runs at listed, g2 and g3 level! Hardest test to date today against some useful 3yr olds but clearly progressing as quickly as they are and is a top class filly that should fit in G1 company with fast ground to suit. 1pt win strawberry daiquiri 5/1 vcbet

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Newmarket 7th july My 100% book: Lillie Langtry 5/2, Strawberrydaqueri 9/2, Rainfall 9/2, Special Duty 7/1, Gile Na Greine 10/1, Spacious 15/1, Music Show 15/1, Lahaleeb 100/1. Rainfall available at 9/1 (SJ) and Gile Na Greine 17.5/1 on betfair Rainfall in particular is a massive price. Although by Oasis Dream her dam won at 1m4f, so should stay. Beat the colts in the Jersy last time out. Only made debut in May and is progressive. If improvement continues at same rate she will win this. Proved she acts on firm at Ascot. Stable in cracking form, much better than when winning at Ascot. Gile Na Greine is just too big a price; value. Second to Lillie Langtry in the Coronation. O'Brian's filly much more likely to improve, but she is 9/4. Gile Na Greine is available at 17.5/1 and was only beaten a little over a length.

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Stevet1859

Stevet1859

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Re: Newmarket 7th july 2:00 Newmarket: Deacon Blues 2pts win 7/1 & Kingsgate Choice 1pt win 7/1 both Ladbrokes Not very original picking two of the market leaders, but they both look to hold good chances is a field full of potential. Deacon Blues started his campaign at Doncaster with a promising third behind Victoire De Lyphar. That winner went on to follow up in a big sprint at York. Deacon Blues was hindered a touch in running too during that race. He then ran second to Folly Bridge at Nottingham and the third Sunraider won next time out. Deacon Blues then got off the mark with a smooth win against older horses at Yarmouth. He is up nine pounds for that, but may be able to handle that rise. Kingsgate Choice is on a three timer after two wins at Windsor and previously Ffos Las. He steps back up a furlong here and Kieren Fallon takes over in the saddle. Trainer John Best on a good run and has a profitable record at the track.

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TheRat

TheRat

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Re: Newmarket 7th july I really like Strawberrydaquari but just don't think she is group 1 level and this isn't exactly a weak renewal. Agree with ginge really that Gile Na Greine is the stand out price in the race Not really a race I would get too heavily involved with but looking forward to it

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wizzkid walter

wizzkid walter

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Re: Newmarket 7th july I think Lillie Langtry will take an absolute world of beating. Won going away at Royal Ascot and cannot see Gile Na Greine reversing the form. Not convinced by Special Duty as form should read 22 and Music Show may find 2 or 3 too good here. Lillie Langtry has always been hyped up by the stable and lto we saw why. I think she should be 6/4, the current 9/4 looks an outstanding price in my opinion

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Jimmy2shoes

Jimmy2shoes

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Re: Newmarket 7th july I liked the way my choice today went clear last time out for the M Johnston yard under A Nicholls, he is Guaranteed to get the trip and will love the ground. He beat a nice horse tarined by M-Jarvis at Chester on june the 26th, and Mr Jarvis thought alot of his runner being ''Cansili star'' A Nicholls was on top that day and played catch me if you can, it will be interesting if he rides the same race in todays race, if he does he might just catch them all out. 2pm - Race 2 on the card ''BELOW ZERO'' e/w bet - 20/1 the magic sign. Enjoy you day.

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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Newmarket 7th july Falmouth If it stays at 8 runners, how about Lahaleeb as an EW punt ? Amongst the 3 older horses, she's the only group one winner and arguably drops in class today after running in top International races against group one colts Acts on good to firm and has had a two month break to get over her globe trotting. There'a view going around that the three year old fillies are not a vintage bunch this year............... Main worry would be that the trip is a bit sharp for her on firm ground........

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fintron

fintron

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Re: Newmarket 7th july my first attempt at pricing the race up was: Special Duty 11/4, Lillie Langtry 7/2, Strawberrydaiquiri 13/2, Music Show 8/1, Gile Na Griene 12/1, Rainfall 12/1, Spacious 14/1, Lahaleeb 20/1. I agree with Trotter, dont see how a Grp 1 winner and placer in Irish Guineas can be 50/1 today. Buick rode in Canada too. Also think Music Show is much better than the Coronation form implies, she stayed on better than the winner that day but started too far back.

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Newmarket 7th july

my first attempt at pricing the race up was: Special Duty 11/4, Lillie Langtry 7/2, Strawberrydaiquiri 13/2, Music Show 8/1, Gile Na Griene 12/1, Rainfall 12/1, Spacious 14/1, Lahaleeb 20/1. I agree with Trotter, dont see how a Grp 1 winner and placer in Irish Guineas can be 50/1 today. Buick rode in Canada too. Also think Music Show is much better than the Coronation form implies, she stayed on better than the winner that day but started too far back.
Fin, Interested to know why do you make Special Duty shorter than Lillie Langtry? Special Duty was beaten fair and square by Liliside (a head) in the French 1000. Mme Head's filly was only a neck in front of Baine. Five horses finished within about a length, suggesting the form is not that great for a “Guineas”. Special Duty was in a photo finish with Jaqueline Quest in our 1000, who was 3rd in the Coronation, beaten a total of 3 ½ lengths by Lillie Langtry. Gile Na Greine just a head behind Special Duty in the 1000, was beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Lillie Langtry. Sent For Heaven beaten around a length in total by Special Duty, beaten out of sight by Lillie Langtry. Look at all those who finished around Special Duty. Jaqueline Quest, Gile Na Greine, Sent From Heaven, Liliside, Baine; would they be anywhere near the price Special Duty is now? Much rather back the Bolger horse at around 20/1 than Special Duty at 7/2. Opinions eh!
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fintron

fintron

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Re: Newmarket 7th july

Fin, Interested to know why do you make Special Duty shorter than Lillie Langtry? Special Duty was beaten fair and square by Liliside (a head) in the French 1000. Mme Head's filly was only a neck in front of Baine. Five horses finished within about a length, suggesting the form is not that great for a “Guineas”. Special Duty was in a photo finish with Jaqueline Quest in our 1000, who was 3rd in the Coronation, beaten a total of 3 ½ lengths by Lillie Langtry. Gile Na Greine just a head behind Special Duty in the 1000, was beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Lillie Langtry. Sent For Heaven beaten around a length in total by Special Duty, beaten out of sight by Lillie Langtry. Look at all those who finished around Special Duty. Jaqueline Quest, Gile Na Greine, Sent From Heaven, Liliside, Baine; would they be anywhere near the price Special Duty is now? Much rather back the Bolger horse at around 20/1 than Special Duty at 7/2. Opinions eh!
You make some fair points Ginge and your tissue is probably more accurate than mine. The one I put up was my first attempt, without any tweaking. The reason I chalked up Special Duty my fav was because of her tactical versatility and because I felt a dual classic winner should be shorter than 7/2. I suppose you can knock the form, but not all of these have proven Group 1 form and it something I regard as important. I think I must put less emphasis on collateral form that you did in your assessment. I also felt Lillie Langtry's short price in real life was due in part to the O'Brien factor. When I watched the Coronation replay last night I was left with the impression that although Lillie Langtry picked up well, Music Show picked up better, considering the latter had a troublesome run. She had to race on the outside and was closing on the winner at the line. had she had a more favoured run up the inside, and been ridden a little more handy, I felt she would have finished closer to the winner, but her starting point when laying down her challenge was further back than the winner and she failed to land a blow in the end. There can be pace problems in small fields I suppose, but I am banking on Strawberrydiaquiri making the running here, possibly disputing with Spacious. If they do that then I think Lahaleeb too could sneak a place although on recent form has plenty to find. Good luck in the race.
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TheRat

TheRat

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Re: Newmarket 7th july 5.30 Newmarket Space War 7/1 EW Blue Sq Two unexposed sorts in the race look the danger here Thabit and the selection. Space War won well over CD LTO and the 3rd has hacked up since. Carrying less weight than Thabit due to age but progressive and should do well here for good connections.

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TheRat

TheRat

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Re: Newmarket 7th july

my spelling was awful there. false start kind of screws things up a bit.
Yea. Mine drifted like a barge though before the off. I don't know what it is recently, everything I back seems to drift just before the start. Been happening since Ascot :sad. It used ot be the opposite 9 out of 10 times
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