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Monte's Specialisation - Manity Saintained (+335pts)

Monterosso
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switzerland

switzerland

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Monte, I'm with you on Field Day. Its obviously a competitive race but at prices she's an each way bet for me. I'm willing to draw a line through her last run as the Meehan yard was in desperate form at the time. She's been in my notebook since her win over course and distance last year. Moore is an interesting booking (assume its cause she's owned by Ballymacoll). Everyone is focused on the other Meehan filly today but hopefully Field Day will take the headlines. S

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers.

Cheers men, long live gambling! Harsh that Ahern got banned for a couple of day IMO.
Agree, I don't think he even knew Moore even there. Julienas was closest to the rail the whole time and the horse just took one step to the left.
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Monterosso

Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. It was nonsense alright but you can't do anything nowadays or your deemed in the wrong. Pity, as he gave the horse a cracking ride. Moore going for a gap that wasn't there should get him a ban if fair is fair. -------------------------------------------------- Finally got a bit of luck and despite over-staking big time, Strong Suit let me relax for the rest of the day by landing the spoils in the Jersey Stakes. Richard Hannon's 3 year old colt bounced back to form in a brilliant fashion, showing a great turn of foot to put the contest to bed having traveled powerfully throughout. He ran around once in front but was always holding on for a relatively comfortable success despite shouldering the burden of a 5lb penalty for his Group 2 success here last year. It was a great effort and he seems to be back with a bang. A return to Group 1 company awaits at some stage and I think he could make into a very good miler in time. +28pts from a 2pt e/w bet at 14/1 (20p Rule 4). Field Day was subject to some decent support, having been backed from 25's into 14's in an attempt to make a winning return to Ascot. However, despite settling well and getting a race run to suit, she just couldn't pick up when it mattered and only managed to come home in sixth place. She's a talented animal though and I wouldn't be surprised to see her gain that elusive Group win at some stage, so I'll be persisting with her for a while. The Royal Hunt Cup was up next and my dart landed on the winner of this 28 runner handicap, Julienas, who I backed each-way at 18/1 last night. This lightly-raced and sizable 4 year old showed everything that you want in a racehorse, as he traveled like a dream, took over the running without too much persuasion and battled on gamely once in-front, repelling a strong challenge from Ryan Moore's charge in the process. He's obviously taken a while to come to hand but now the sky could be the limit and I wouldn't be shocked to see him win at a lowly Group level. He should get further too and Swinburn's bound to have some fun with him. +33.75pts from a 1.50pt e/w bet at 18/1. My other selection, Hacienda, went out like a light but will remain of interest when back in a lower level. He's a better horse than he's shown to date. The Brian Meehan horse was a non-runner. Blessed Biata was the most disappointing of the selections, even though she didn't run too badly. Whenever Hugh Taylor, as good as he is, posts the same selection as me, they always lose. It was no difference here. The potentially classy 3 year old was extremely well backed, eventually going off at 11/2 having been backed at 14's last night. There was loads of support for her on course (8's > 11/2) and she was obviously well fancied. However, she broke fairly slowly and took a keen hold in rear, which wasn't ideal on her first attempt over a mile. She ran on well once she found stride though and it was encouraging as she'll definitely improve for the run and the experience. I think there's plenty of races in this one and she'll eventually win a Listed race at least. Sixth place was all she could muster, but it should be built upon and I wouldn't be giving up on her yet. +53.75pts profit on the day, which is by far the best tally I've had in donkeys years. Really, really, really happy with that and hopefully there's some more winners to come soon. Stats will be updated after Saturday, and at the moment, they don't look too bad!

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 2:30 Ascot - Silverheels - 3pts @ 7/1 (Bet365) Plenty of potentially useful types line up for this 5f Group 2 race for juveniles but Paul Cole's Siverheels could be something special if improving for his first run, which was an exceptionally impressive maiden victory to say the least. That was a decent race in which 10 animals went to post over the flying 5 furlongs at Windsor. The last couple of winners have went on to taste Group success, including one of last years best 2 year old sprinters Zebedee, and I think a similar fate is in waiting for this grey colt. Everything that could possibly go wrong on a racecourse debut went wrong for Silverheels, as he veered badly left coming out of the stalls and had to be given a reminder to get back over to the opposition. He then ran greener than grass until Silvestre De Sousa (who's not on today) got him into a rhythm coming into the final furlong and when asked to quicken, he got the mother of all responses. He took off like a bat out of hell when produced to lead 150 yard from home and won by 3¼ lengths in the end in what was a very comfortable success. His debut effort is more impressive than anything else in this field has produced and natural progression should see him come on again. The one worry is that he hasn't raced for a couple of months (had a cold), but hopefully he'll have learned enough from that outing to get involved here. Silverheels was born on the 20th of January, so he's fully entitled to be a nice early season type. In fact he's the oldest horse in the race and has at least a couple of months on the majority of his rivals. That not a hugely important angle and yesterdays fillies' race was won by the youngest animal in the field (born in May, but she was so speedy), but a couple of months is a long time in the life of a 2 year old thoroughbred and he could hold a nice little advantage on the field before they've even stepped into the stalls. He's a fine looking type anyways and the last couple of months should of brought him on even more, so with the benefit of some racecourse experience to iron out his quirks, a much improved effort could be expected here. If he could actually put in a much improved effort, then I'm really looking forward to this race, as a step forward from that debut win would result in a performance capable of winning this race, even though it's significantly tougher. Paul Cole said "I thought he had a chance, but I didn't think he'd storm home like that. When he got the hang of it he took off. He's always been really straightforward and just gets on with life" after Silverheels won last time out. It's clear that Cole thinks he has a very classy animal on his hands if he's willing to launch him into Group 2 company straight after a maiden win and the booking of Ryan Moore is even more interesting. The pairing have a decent 13% strike-rate and although that doesn't matter here, I like it when the stats are positive enough. They've also had a total of 36 places to add to the 20 winners. Moore has had a few close calls in an attempt to add to his sole win at Royal Ascot, so I'm pinning my hopes on the law of averages favouring him here! That's a load of nonsense anyways but he could be due a good one and this horse should be the ideal partner for him. They've a plum draw in stall 20, they should get ground to suit and with the pace likely to be strong, they'll get a good tow into the race. I fail to see how he won't go well and 7/1 looks a value price. Bapak Chinta is much too short and priced up based on his win over the subsequent Windsor Castle Stakes winner on debut, which doesn't warrant 4/1 in my opinion (plus he's only a May foal). He should go well, but I'd rather avoid. A few others have claims and Signifer would be my idea of the best outsider (50/1!). However, if Silverheels improves as expected and fulfills his debut promise, he should get involved in the shake-up at least. He looks to have raw talent, a good attitude and a wonderful turn of foot, so this Group race may not be beyond him, even at this early stage. A fairly stiff 5 furlongs should suit as he'll get further in time and the likely pace should put an emphasis on both traveling speed and stamina, of which he has both. Medium stakes at 7/1 for me, as I feel he should be the favourite. Many other horses have put in better performances than he did on debut, but none were as good as him first time up and the visual impression he left was phenomenal. Hopefully he'll go well, although yard form (0-16 last 2 weeks) and course form (3-55 last 5 years) for the yard are big worries, which is partly the reason why I'm not maximum betting this fellow.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 4:25 Ascot - Baptist - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) 5 places being paid here and I was going to throw a few darts at the board, but instead I'll just stick with Baptist. This unexposed colt represents the Andrew Balding yard and comes here on the back of a disappointing effort first time up as a 3 year old. However, he had excuses in that 7f contest at York, having been drawn widest in stall 14 before breaking slowly. He didn't get a chance to get involved but came in for strong support beforehand, which is often an extremely good sign with any of Balding's animals. I think the return to a mile at a track like Ascot should suit and he's also got what should be a plum draw in stall 32, assuming he can break on terms with the rest. Baptist is open to plenty of progression having only raced on 3 occasions. The first of those, as a 2 year old, was an impressive win in a good 14 runner maiden at Newbury. He showed both a nice turn of foot and a solid attitude to repel Chain Lightening, a horse who he re-opposes on 1lb worse terms, although I'm convinced that animal needs further than the mile he gets here. Regardless, it was a clear indication of the Andrew Balding runners ability and he was expected to go on to bigger and better things. Although having not run until September of last year, time was running out to find him suitable races, as he's a faster ground animal. They decided to take their chance on soft ground when upping Baptist to Group 3 level over this C&D. However, the ground found him out and he could only manage 5th of 8, although I think the run was better than it was rated. The race was run at a muddling sort of a pace and once they quickened, the horse had to get to work quickly. He made some headway into around 3rd place before failing to keep with them in the final furlong but galloped on well to the line afterwards despite being beaten at that stage. The return to a sounder surface is sure to be in his favour and the draw being kinder also bodes well for him. Andrew Balding has always had high hopes for Baptist and describes him as a "fabulous physical specimen", which he surely is. He's going to be the type to get better with racing and having had a recent outing, he should be spot on here. Balding also hopes that he'll eventually get 1m 2f but for the moment, I reckon a truly run mile at a fairly stiff track should suffice. I also think the 7f at York last time out would of been a bit lively for him regardless of whether he broke quickly or not, but he's a potentially classy type on a good mark (90) so who knows what could of happened. The hustle and bustle of this race combined with the potential to get some cover should suit Baptist, so hopefully he can fulfill his trainers hopes for him by landing the £62k pot here. Jimmy Fortune is on board and knows him well having took the reins on all of his career outings. Fortune also rides the track well and does very well when riding for Balding's yard. The pairing have had 2 winners and 9 places from just 26 runners here at Ascot, so hopefully they'll be able to add to that here. Cruiser (33/1) and Tropical Beat (12/1) were the others that I'll have an interest in but I'm far too lazy to go into detail about those, plus the stakes will be very minimal. Baptist looks to be the one to side with here and I think 16/1 might be a bit generous. His talent is undoubted, he's got plenty of potential, he should get his conditions (bar loads of rain), he'll love the track and he'll be positioned nicely to attack. I see no reason why he can't go well and despite this being a massive lottery, I'll play medium each-way stakes in the hope that a bit more luck comes my way. If it doesn't, it shouldn't be too long until this lovely looking colt revisits the winners enclosure.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Re-hash of my old write up, plus some added. 5:00 Ascot - Loving Spirit - 1pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365) Exciting and competitive Group 3 contest over 1m 2f in the offing here and I'm a little bemused as to why Loving Spirit is deemed a 50/1 shot. He was one of my "ten to follow" for the year and a horse I really expected a fair bit of, so maybe it's the blinkers affecting me but I still think this horse is severely underrated in the market, even though it'll be tough for him. He's a lightly-raced 3 year old colt and was most impressive at 2. First time up he ran over 7f at Newmarket, late on in the season. It was quite soft ground that day and he tackled a 17 runner maiden first time up, which looked a tough task. James Toller isn't too bad with his 2 year old's (although he doesn't have many FTO winners) and he clearly had this fellow spot on, as he was well-backed and duly obliged in a most impressive fashion. He sat in behind the leaders and traveled supremely throughout, before moving into contention with relative ease. In the end, Loving Spirit ran out a very easy 5 length winner, despite running as if he didn't know what was going on, although that's understandable. It wasn't a bad maiden by any means and plenty of the runners should make good animals, but Toller's charge will be the best of them. He put in a performance that would see him rated near 100 and done that all despite shaping as if he'd be a better horse on a sound surface, as his dam was. He disappointed next time out when upped in class and trip (again at Newmarket, over a mile), but it was still a very good effort given his inexperience. 2nd place was all he could muster, having made his charge on what may have been an unfavoured strip of ground down the centre of the course, and despite holding every chance a furlong from home, the winner had soon flown to a 2.25l victory. James Toller has come out on record and said he believed his then 2 year old colt couldn't handle running a second race in the space of 2 weeks, and that could be a valid excuse, as I'd of fully expected him to be the best horse in that race. Toller has also said that Loving Spirit has strengthened up well over the winter and he definitely looked as if there was plenty of scope for improvement in his frame last year, so we could see a different animal over the course of 2011. First time up as a 3 year old, this son of Azamour tackled Group 1 company in the 2,000 Guineas. It was an impossible task for the inexperienced animal as he never stood a chance of getting involved given how things panned out. He's much too slow for a mile when it was run at an amazingly quick tempo by the tearaway front-running Frankel. Drawing a line through that race is the best thing to do, as it wasn't a true reflection of his abilities. Loving Spirit was then dropped back into Listed class a month later, a race which was run over a mile at Sandown on good to soft ground. It was only a 5 runner affair but they went a good clip throughout and made it a proper test. Toller's charge traveled well throughout and loomed large half-way up the hill before getting caught for toe against the speedier animals. He ended up finishing last of the 5 runners but was only 5 lengths behind despite weakening inside the final furlong. The winner of that race, Tazahum, is re-opposing my selection here and is set to go off as favourite (currently 4/1). Both of the runners take a 2f step up in trip to tackle this Group 3 contest. I think it's Loving Spirit who's crying out for at least 1m 2f, with the stiff nature of the track being even more in his favour. He's bred to excel over these middle-distances and I think he's phenomenally underrated given the amount of improvement it should bring. The race will be run at a good gallop and he's got the speed to lie up with them as he travels so well, plus I fancy the extra distance to help increase his chances of finishing well, as I think he lacks the turn of foot for a mile. With all of this in mind, 50/1 is surely bordering on insanity. He shaped so well last time out and despite this being a tougher task, he's expected to improve again (both physically and for the trip). I could be completely wrong and he'll be outclassed but his proximity to the favourite for today's race over an inadequate trip gives cause for a bit of optimism. There are plenty of other dangers, including Happy Today and Slumber who both look interesting but I'll side with the James Toller trained animal to somehow spring a shock. He's surely better than what he's shown to date this season and the trip could help him fulfill that potential. I wouldn't have him any bigger than 20/1 here, so small each-way stakes are in order. 1/3 odds for a place too, which is handy. Hopefully he'll go well.

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Monterosso

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. 5:35 Ascot - Brown Panther - 5pts @ 13/2 (VC) It's time to put my money where my mouth is with regards to Brown Panther, as I said he was a Group horse in waiting and now I'm given the opportunity to back him in a handicap off a mark of 91. Purely on the basis of what I think this animal could be, I think he's worthy of taking a big bite at despite the competitive and very tough nature of this King George V Handicap. There are plenty of other very talented horses here with the potential to compete at Group level, but I think Tom Dascombe's home-bred could be top notch and will be suited to this test. As long as the ground isn't rapidly quick, which it shouldn't be, this fellow will have everything run to suit. Brown Panther, a previous Derby entrant, had one run at 2, which was on the all-weather around Southwell over 7 furlongs. That was at the back end of the year (November) and this home-bred colt has obviously taken some time to come to hand, but he made a nice start to score over a trip that would be considered a long way shy of his optimum. He ran out a 1 length winner, despite running green and being forced wide coming for home. He showed a nice, game attitude to win going away, and whilst the form is not relevant here, there was plenty to like about they way he went about business. That effort was deemed good enough to give Brown Panther an opening handicap of 73. Dascombe readied him for another stint on the all-weather, this time over 1m 3f, which looked sure to suit. Connections also backed him throughout the day, but he was easier on course having been quite green in the paddock. In the race, he pulled quite hard early on, then failed to make any sort of headway under pressure, eventually finishing in 4th place. It wasn't a bad effort on the back of a break and I'm not convinced that the polytrack surface was ideal. He then reappeared 2 weeks later, this time over 1m 4f at Chester, a track I didn't think would be ideal for an out-and-out galloper, which he looks to be. However, despite having raced keenly again, Brown Panther managed to get his head in-front in the final strides of this decent handicap, beating some potentially useful (to a point) sorts. He had looked beaten coming into the closing stages of the race, having failed to quicken when the 2nd & 3rd horse scooted clear, but he eventually found his stride and came home very strongly to win by a neck. Brown Panther was hit with an 8lb rise in the weights after that victory and tackled his toughest opposition to date when running over this 1m 4f trip at Haydock. He was well-backed from 4/1 the night before into 2/1 before the off in an attempt to make it 3 from 4, this time at a more suitable venue. Dascombe decided to instruct Richard Kingscote to play the waiting game and that he duly did. He held this beautiful looking animal up towards the rear of the field and when they came into the final half-mile, it was easy to see that the duo were galloping all over the rest of the field. For a brief moment it looks as if there would be no room and he wouldn't get out but Kingcote found the gap and Brown Panther jogged through it before hitting the turbo. He scooted nearly 2 lengths clear in the closing stages and won extremely readily. Dascombe said he wanted to teach him something new so held him up and ran him between horses to do so, and it seems to have given them plenty options with him now. His cruising speed and turn of foot were wonderful, much better than that of a 91 rated handicapper. He's obviously improving at a rapid rate of knots and there's surely a lot more to come. I've went through videos of all of his main contenders here and to my eye, he's the most impressive of the lot. He's a big baby who's still coming to grips with the game but with so much more to come, I fail to see how he won't go well here. The yard are on fire of late and even had their first winner at Royal Ascot yesterday, so with confidence sky-high, I think they'll be adding to that here. I understand that it's mental putting on a very big bet in a race of this nature, but if my views are correct on him being Group class, I should get a great run for my money. He's up 10lbs here but that won't stop him if he's in the same vein of form as last time out and with the ground, track and pace in the race all being in his favour, I think he'll win it. Hopefully Lady Luck will shine down again and Brown Panther will land the spoils. He owes me nothing after backing him at 4/1 last time out, so it's worth the gamble anyways. Purification could give him the most to do.

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RussP

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Re: Monte's Specialisation - Hangovers. Monte, really like Brown Panther myself. Good luck with it (I won't put in my thread as we always jinx each other:lol). Excellent stuff yesterday, very impressed. I hope you've kept hold of that 'lucky pin' for the rest of the week. Lucky bugger;)

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