Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Shouldn't all H2H bets be cancelled? Aall riders will be given 1 and same time - I read this from cyclingnews.com It is according to the big crash in the last kilometer. There has never been such a big crash before. Maybe it just had to happen someday

H2H bets pay on who crosses the line first, not if one rider makes a time difference on the other.

[Jenspm]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

In-play bet: Tyler Farrar to win Stage 1 @ 5 - Ladbrokes He's been the best sprinter all season, and seeing as the peleton has passed the coast-winds without problems, there is no doubt that this will end in a mass-sprint. Main challenger is Cavendish, but one must remember that he's without Hincapie this year, and Mark Renshaw won't be close to the form he was in last year, after his illness in December. Also lots of value in McEwen @ 26 - PaddyPower, 888Sport, BlueSq Good luck all :hope

Farrar blocked by the pile up, McEwen came fourth. Renshaw did grab a second place, but I'm still not convinced he's in top form. I'll continue to opose Cavendish if the odds on him continue to stay under evens.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Petacchi has some luck today, cos main Farrar, Cav and Freire crashed :) Colombia lost Hansen today, which makes Cav chances for stage wins smaller. Something more, in this year team Cav do not have so much good leaders, cos most of the guys are climbers or TT specialist as Tony Martin, Monfort, Eisel, Rogers... And after the fall Cavendish do not seems to be very much sorry about the situation, maybe he knows that his chances are weak. For me Petacchi is capable to take another stage until Alpes. He is always very strong in the first stages of Grand Tour and specially on Tour de France. Farrar is big favorit as Garmin had strong pace setters as Zabriski and Miller and high speed sprinters leads up as Robert Hunter and Julian Dean. I expect from Farrar to win at least three stages. Robbie Mcewen seems to do not get big support from his Katusha team mates, but with a tactics to be in Top 5 in sprint stages and if he managed to pass the big mountains still has a chance to fight for green jersey. Tomorrow stage is perfect for flat/hill breakers as Voight, Voekler, etc... Expect serious break up group including 2/3 riders from Katusha, FDJ, Bbox, Ag2r, Milram Caisee D'Epagne (Kiryenka is perfect selection for winner, Belarusian already had a stege wins in Giro and Vuelta and now showed great form in Prologue) and Cofidis (Moinard and Rein Taaramae deservs some attention with big odds) Will wait tomorrow for odds, cos right now only Paddy has. Will add one bet for Young rider classification Rein Taaramae 67.00 Paddy/Will Hill The best Estionian cyclist and he is just 23 years old. I am pretty sure he will find better team next year. Expect from him to be Cofidis GC contender and think that he has qualities to finish in Top 15. This year we have very strong players for white jersey as Andy Schlek, Gesink, Kreuziger and Tony Martin. Taaramae showed in last two years that deservs the place between the best with 3rd Overal at strong Tour de Romandie, 8 overal at Tour de Suisse, 3rd at Volta a Catalunia and 8-th at Paris-Nice. Good TT, far better then Andy Shleck and Gesing and good climber.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 2 has many similar characteristics to hilly classics like LBL and Amstel Gold. I believe a rider whose abilities are suited to this these races may do well here and have taken some riders because they have a good history in spring classics and their odds are IMO much too big. 1 Karsten Kroon @ 251.00 2 Frank Schleck @ 201.00 3 Cadel Evans @ 251.00 4 Vasil Kiryienka @ 151.00 5 Joaquin Rodriguez @ 101.00 6 Robert Gesink @ 201.00 All with Bet365. This early on I would not normally take GC riders like Cadel, Frank and Gesink to win a stage but given the characteristics of the course and the odds I don't mind so much. Cadel won LBL this year and Frank may see this as a good chance to make up a few seconds. Andy Schleck is at 151 but I don't think he is riding very well at the moment and think the others here are better bets.

[tadley]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July stage 2 should be interesting with the sprinters trying desperately to hold on over the mountains to stay in contention for the finish. in all likelyhood a break away could prevail. what you basically need is someone who regularly tries to break away and can climb. samuel dumoulin at 101.00 could fit the bill.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 2 Vasil Kiryenka Betfair 200 Already a winner in Giro and Vuelta. Loves to make early break outs during commong stages with not so big mountains. Showed good form in the prologue and with some good group forming at the beginning may have go seriously and also to fight for yellow jersey if the break lasted until the end. I think that break group must have at least 2.30 minutes after the last summit to keep away from the others in the last 20 km. Tyler Farrar (best odds for him will be avaliable during the middle of the stage, when the break is formed and have big advantage of +7 minutes. Expect to reach 25 the odds for him, now they are around 16 at betfair). For me his team has the best lead outs among the other sprints team. Scored two wins in Giro and has very nice season so far.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July 2 more: Alex Kolobnev @ 48 Betfair Kolobnev is another one day rider. He podiumed at the world's last year on a profile that has some similarities to this one. As Piluskin showed yesterday, Katusha like to look for late attacks to try and steal glory, and the Russian would be a good candidate. Sergei Ivanov @ 65 Betfair Won a stage of the tour last year. Again, a strong Russian from the Katusha team who could easily figure today.

[asbo]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Are Bet365 offering anything on the 2nd stage? Can't seem to find anything!

[gurudave]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July The race was well underway by the time you posted. Obviously not offering in play betting?

[asbo]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

The race was well underway by the time you posted. Obviously not offering in play betting?

Yeah, they're offering it now, it's whenver Eurosport are broadcasting apparently.

[gurudave]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July What a great effort by Chavenel. Not too pleased with the no sprint at the end will see what comes of that as it had an effect on place results.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Very happy for Mimo's win today. Another crazy stage. Cancelara lost his yellow, because of the Andy Schleck;s crash (seems he had injured his elbow)..... I am pretty sure Fabian would run and would limit the time losses if he wasn't forced to wait. And if they do not have the human engine Voigt in the team... they would loss maybe a minute. So much crashes......... Taaramae missed the chance to put yellow, cos seems he isn't prepared for such flat/hilly stages, but for sure will wait for the mountains. Nice to see him fighting almost like equal with Pineau. Tomorrow will be a hell stage if there is a rain.....

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July That was a disastrous betting stage. The whole thing was completely neutralized and nobody had a shot to try for the win which was very saddening as I think Katusha were primed for an attack. Le Mevel made it back after the crash which was something but still winless so far this tour.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 3 (those nasty cobbles) Juan Antionio Flecha Paddy 26.00 Here it comes the most commentated stage in this year's tour. Will Alberto Contador and Schleck brothers keep themselfs without crashing and losing time to other main contenders? I think it will be very tough. Now who are the main contenders here. For sure the profile benefits perfectly to Cancelara or his team mate O'Grady (both Paris-Roubaix winners). But they will have more important task - to guard Schleck bros (this task cos Fabian's yellow jersey today). Amongh the sprinters Thor Huschovd is the most proven rider over cobbles. That's why he is the favorit (no hills or downhills, excpet one Cat 4) 0Maybe he will try to stay with the possible break in the last 80 km, where the cobbles will wait for competitors. My favorite for the win is Juan Antonio FLecha. This year he is competing for Sky. This is his bigger chance to win a stage. One of the best Cobblestones specialist in cycling. Alaways a podium contender at Paris_roubaix (once second, twice third including 2010) and Tour of Flanders. His entire preparation this year was pointed towards Flanders classics as mentioned above. Won one of them - Omloop, finished third at Paris-Roubaix and Flanders Prize (Prix Vlaanderern).

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Will add two more players for tomorrow stage Marcus Burghard Lads 67.00 The German was part of the break yesterday. Showed good pace in the moments. He is also a cobbles specialist. Winner of Gent-Wevelgem three years ago. Rides very well at Tour of Flanders. Finds in great form. Won two stages at Tour de Suisse. Had already won a stage in Tour de France 2008. Martin Maaskant Betfred 51.00 This guy is typical Flanders rider, who loves Cobbles. Wasn't at his best during Spring classics, but showed some form in Tour de Suisse, where finished second in one of the stages after Burghard. Had placed forth in Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders in last two years. A lot of typical cobbles specialists do not participate on the tour and this is the chance of guys like Flecha, Burghard and Maaskant to win a stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Flecha and Maarskants are two of my picks too. Don't have a time to do a full write of everyone but wanted to post my best pick for the day in case I don't have time to do the rest: George Hincapie @ 55 Betfair Hincapie is a seasoned cobblestones rider and the profile will definitely suit him tonight. BMC don't have a genuine sprinter so this type of stage will be one of their best chances for a victory. What I like most about this selection though is that Hincapie lost 9mins on yesterday's stage. Given the likes of Le Mevel and Schleck got back into the peleton, this is unlikely to be a result of a crash but rather an indication that the American is likely saving energy for a big effort on today's stage.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July I was interested to see Taaramae, Lloyd and Pineau fighting so hard for the KOM bonuses in stage 2 yesterday. Pineau seems like the kind who'd just be out to hold the jersey for a few days, but the other two look like they're contending. Or might they just be out there to mop up points for a team mate who's planning to make a genuine run in the competition once the real mountains start? I missed the bit of the stage where Lloyd dropped off. Did he look weak? And would you read much in to that? I'm surprised he's still around 25/1 when he's shown so much interest in the competition (he was quoted saying he was interested too). Taaramae's more like 13/1.

[gurudave]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Martijn Maaskant 34/1 @ Sportsbet each way First year as professional is 2008 had a good showing in Paris-Roubaix and 2009 won the combativity award for most aggressive rider on stage 14. Good price available at Betfred most other bookmakers pricing him between 30s and 35s at current time. Also small stakes on Breschel $15 and Hushovd $5.50 each way.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Other bets for today are: Maaskant @ 50 Ballan @ 30 Flecha @ 21 Van Summeren @ 70 All riders are strong over the cobbles and I think their respective teams will look to attack today.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

I was interested to see Taaramae, Lloyd and Pineau fighting so hard for the KOM bonuses in stage 2 yesterday. Pineau seems like the kind who'd just be out to hold the jersey for a few days, but the other two look like they're contending. Or might they just be out there to mop up points for a team mate who's planning to make a genuine run in the competition once the real mountains start? I missed the bit of the stage where Lloyd dropped off. Did he look weak? And would you read much in to that? I'm surprised he's still around 25/1 when he's shown so much interest in the competition (he was quoted saying he was interested too). Taaramae's more like 13/1.

Matt Lloyd almost won the Giro competition by default. I can't actually recall anybody seriously making a run for it. He set his KOTM win up when he took a lot of points on a stage where only he and Burghadt were in the break. For me, he is a mediocre climber. There are a great many number of high mountains in this year's tour and if a real climber were to target the KOTM with any seriousness they would win with ease. Think back to last year, when Egoi Martinez went for it, but failed because a real climber like Pellizotti went for it. For me, Lloyd is of a similar standard to Martinez, maybe worse, and I think you will see at least one stronger climber target this competition.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Some interesting news from yesterday crashes - Christian Vande Velde is out of competition. The entire team suffers a lot Julian Dean crashes baddly and Farrar has a fracture on the wrist and problems with the elbow. I dont expect from him to race more then 2-3 stages. Bad luck for the team, really. Robbie Mcewen also went to hospital and had a lot of pain. This means that Huschovd is back as a main contender for green jersey. Maybe only Freire would match with him. There are also rummors that Gesink is seriously injured after yesterday. We will see how he will show himself today. Mattew Lloyd for sure will benefit from the early breaks at the mountains, where the big favorits will wait until the last climb before making a decisive attacks. He is very good climber, not the best out there, but for may keep the tempo with big guns for a long period of time. Yesterdays monts were somesort as a sprint points at the end.

[9coconuts]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July If you're too good a climber, the top guys won't let you go, will they? (only one TT in the Tour this year). Or would Radioshack be happy to let someone good wear themselves out a few minutes ahead of elite group until the final climb? Should we expect a top climber to deliberately drop themselves back in the GC to be given freedom to go for the KOTM?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

If you're too good a climber' date=' the top guys won't let you go, will they? (only one TT in the Tour this year). Or would Radioshack be happy to let someone good wear themselves out a few minutes ahead of elite group until the final climb? Should we expect a top climber to deliberately drop themselves back in the GC to be given freedom to go for the KOTM?[/quote'] A top climber who comes into the GC wont look to lose time to go for the KOTM, but a top climber who accidently loses time might. If for instance a climber were to lose 10-15 on the cobbles today, he will change his goals and the KOTM may well become a part of that. Alternatively, some top climbers come into the tour with objectives other than GC in mind. Pellizotti last year came into the tour with the goal of stage wins and then KOTM, not GC. If you look at some of the past KOTM winners, they are all top climbers: Franco Pellizotti Bernard Kohl Mauricio Soler Michael Rasmussen Compared to the Giro, which is where Lloyd won KOTM, where someone like Fabian Wegmann has even won KOTM in that race. Lloyd might win, but if he does, it'll be because he has no challengers, not because he is the superior challenger.

[Luckatoni]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Stage 4. It will be a classical sprint race. An early demarrage, which would be caught up at 5-10 km before the finish line. Cavandish and Hushovd have their eyes on green jersey, and want to perform well early in the Tour to get maximum points. It will be a classic battle between these two powerhouses. I dont think others have a real good chance¨to win a sprint. Lets be honost Petachi was quite lucky with winning stage 1. 2.26 Cavandish betfair 6 pt. 8.4 Hushovd betfair 2 pt. GL :ok

[kenrosewall]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Great read guys! This thread persuaded me to sign up with the Punters Lounge. Crouch Potato, I am very interested in your insights into the race for the KOTM. I have had a small bet so far on Txurruka at 31/1 at the start of the tour but am keen to have a couple of further small plays in this market. I agree with you that the KOTM will more than likely be won by one of the initial GC contenders (obviously therefore they are one of the superior climbers) who suffer a decent time gap early and change their focus. I would be interested to know your thoughts on who you think the top 5 contenders for the KOTM would be at this stage? After watching the cobbles last night, a few have been setback somewhat and I'm looking at guys like Cunego, Rodriguez, Roland or maybe Luis-Leon Sanchez, Samuel Sanchez. Thoughts?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Cunego has lost a lot of time, but given that it is Cunego caution must be exercised. He rode the two a few years back, got in several breaks and traded as the favourite, only to achieve nothing, fail to win the stage and abandon the tour. I can't help but feel there's a possibility he'll just chuck it in at some stage and his odds are very short, so for now I've not bet, but his time loss is very much on my mind. Rodriguez won Vuelta KOTM before and may very well go after this. Not sure how much room he'd be given by the peleton and again odds are short, so sitting on this for now. Rolland was in the break yesterday and didn't contest KOTM. Sure it was only 3pts, but the fact he didn't contest suggests to me that this classification isn't at the forefront of his mind. The Sanchezs' are great descenders and I've considered both. If either try to drop the field on the descent, they may well attack just before the summit, which could see them pick up tidy points. What I will say about Luis Leon though is that he very much seems to be riding for the GC. Every stage I see him riding at the front, and yesterday I thought he did a great job of staying ahead of the chaos. In the next 3 mountain stages, there is something like 170pts on offer, so anyone who is in the break may well vault to a big lead.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July Tonight should be a sprinter's stage, but given how things have gone so far, you can't be sure. There are good odds on 3 riders who I think have a strong chance of being in a break, so I've taken them for very small amounts: Jeremy Roy @ 201 (Sportsbet) Nicholas Vogondy @ 250 (Betfair) Samuel Dumoulin @ 250 (Betfair) And a sprinters: Alessandro Pettachi @ 10 Betfair In good form as shown by his previous results. Experienced rider which will help him navigate a slightly tricky run in (5 roundabouts in close succession could drop some sprinters far behind).

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Great read guys! This thread persuaded me to sign up with the Punters Lounge. Crouch Potato, I am very interested in your insights into the race for the KOTM. I have had a small bet so far on Txurruka at 31/1 at the start of the tour but am keen to have a couple of further small plays in this market. I agree with you that the KOTM will more than likely be won by one of the initial GC contenders (obviously therefore they are one of the superior climbers) who suffer a decent time gap early and change their focus. I would be interested to know your thoughts on who you think the top 5 contenders for the KOTM would be at this stage? After watching the cobbles last night, a few have been setback somewhat and I'm looking at guys like Cunego, Rodriguez, Roland or maybe Luis-Leon Sanchez, Samuel Sanchez. Thoughts?

From an interview with Pierre Rolland: "I think there will be many opportunities to do something great in this Tour de France," he added. "I might go again for breakaways or try and get the polka jersey or something. I'll see day by day what I can do but I'm definitely motivated and ready for a good show." So clearly it is still something on his mind. I know he has said he'd like to go for this in the past too (it's actually the reason I took him this year), so on the back of this I'd suggest he'd be a good bet.

[ogii55]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July

Tonight should be a sprinter's stage, but given how things have gone so far, you can't be sure. There are good odds on 3 riders who I think have a strong chance of being in a break, so I've taken them for very small amounts: Jeremy Roy @ 201 (Sportsbet) Nicholas Vogondy @ 250 (Betfair) Samuel Dumoulin @ 250 (Betfair) And a sprinters: Alessandro Pettachi @ 10 Betfair In good form as shown by his previous results. Experienced rider which will help him navigate a slightly tricky run in (5 roundabouts in close succession could drop some sprinters far behind).

:clap:clap:clap Another one for Petachi. Will be interesting to see if he would be able to pass the Alps. Farrar is for sure out of green jersey competition. Cav is total disapointment this year :) Happy that Mcewen still keeps going with good positions and adds some points.

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling: Le Tour de France 3-25th of July As ever when it comes to cycling, great shot Crouchy :clap:clap:clap:clap. Cav is proving a serious disappointment so far. That couldn't have been set up for him any better :eek.