Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20

[Wanderer89]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20

Not much value around today- some short prices have ruled out some of my favourite bets. 27 Jul 2010 - Somerset v Northants - Total Match Sixes Under (10.5) @ 5/6 The general rule of thumb for Somerset is bat second and chase. I also think northants will prefer to set a target so we could have an irrelevant toss. If Somerset do bat second that rules ou them going he'll for leather and setting a huge total. Northants have had some good big hitting from sales and vaas but I just feel Thomas and Phillips (if fit) should have the measure of them. Conditions are also far from ideal and due to be muggy and overcast, which should let the ball do a bit! The Taunton pitch is changing and in the forecast conditions I would be surprised to see a run fest. I was at the last home t20 vs Kent in similar overcast conditions and having reduced them to 140 odd all out it seemed a formality, but the ball did a bit and nobody could hit boundaries let alone sixes. Whilst I hope for a few more runs today, I just think conditions, the quality of Thomas and karthik in being economical and the loss of a huge hitter in pollard will keep this below the line.

Which bookies? Very good price.

[Wanderer89]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Found it, william hill. How short is the somerset boundry? It can't be as bad as northants boundry anyway :lol

[fishy25]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Short, usually a run fest at Taunton due to it being so flat and the quality of batsman playing there. But as mentioned, the conditions are overcast so should give bowlers a chance today.

[fishy25]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Does anyone know if there is meant to be any rain later on possibly interrupting the games?

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Taunton might need to do some shower dodging mate. There's a reserve day in place anyhow. Chelmsford should be ok. One for the 1st game. 3pts Northants to beat Somerset 2/1 Bet365 I've been priced in here to an extent as I don't believe any side should be 2/1 in a twenty20 over game particularly this one which could be shorter than that. So much tonight is going to be determined by the toss of the coin. It's very much a bowl 1st night and even though Northants like to set a total I'm sure they'll chase tonight in case the weather intervenes mid match. Somerset are without Pollard and took a fearful bashing by Kent here in their last group game. Northants come in here in good nick in the competition having won their last 3 to get here, the last two of which were as good as straight up knockout matches. Unlike Somerset who will have to change overseas players, Chaminda Vaas and Elton Chigumbura are firmly in place for the Steelbacks this evening. I don't know the exact record off by heart but Northants have a fair record at Taunton in this competition and at a very big 2/1 given the format.

[fishy25]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 If there's likely to be some showers, if you did do that under 10.5 sixes and the overs were reduced, is it made void or does the bet remain?

[Otter4]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Yeah very overcast and breezy here! Wind is blowing against the short boundary which is a good omen! Ben Phillips looks like he is fit, bowling at good pace! There is the odd light drizzle in the air but we will get a full game in I think! I desperately hope you are wrong kev, pollard is a blow but surely Somerset will be too strong for northants. Toss is happening now.... Northants bat first (they won) should be good as long as we get one of the openers early on! Should be a cracker!

[fishy25]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Northants win toss and bat, going to follow you on that sixes bet then mate however they have taken it off for now :unsure

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20

If there's likely to be some showers' date=' if you did do that under 10.5 sixes and the overs were reduced, is it made void or does the bet remain?[/quote'] Depends who you bet with mate. Check the rules.

[fishy25]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Another interesting one might be the fall of the first wicket. With Ladbrokes, the Northants fall of 1st wicket is at 22.5. Might go for under that figure due to the conditions and Somerset's decent upfront pace.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 If rain interrupts this match Northants deserve to lose. Can't understand asking Somerset to chase at the best of times but especially when there's weather around! I'm putting Somerset in all day long. Totally different animal when setting a score and they can't defend one at Taunton for toffee :eyes.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 And one for the final QF. Nearly took the 6's but don't fancy taking on the weather. 3pts Lancashire to beat Essex 6/5 Sportingbet This is a rarity of a game with neither side playing an overseas player. In fact Essex have been hit bigtime with injuries and international callup's. ten Doeschate and Napier were already out for them and now Cook, Styris and Kaneria are all away with their international sides which is a real blow. Cook and Styris have been good players in their batting lineup. Lancashire are also without an overseas player with Simon Katich on his way home and Chanderpaul surplus to requirements in this competition. However in Smith, Moore and Croft they have a top order which has really begun to fire in recent games. It's the bowling where I like Lancashire. This Chelmsford wicket will turn and they played 4 out and out spinners in a recent game. Stephen Parry and Gary Keedy are among the best going around at the minute. For Essex it's almost Ravi Bopara or nothing. He has to fire for them to have any chance and even then it's not a guarantee it'll be enough. Lancashire have got something to prove after being denied a place at finals day last year courtesy of a bowl out and with the bit between their teeth I'll take the Red Rose to prevail and complete the finals day lineup this evening.

[Otter4]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Turner is stood next to us, he just said it's a really tricky wicket and said it will be tough to chase whatever! Surely not! Fingers crossed!Strangling them at the mo!

[markysimmo]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20

Essex team

RS Bopara, ML Pettini, MJ Walker, GW Flower, T Westley, JS Foster*†, TJ Phillips, A Carter, DD Masters, CJC Wright, MA Chambers

	Lancashire team
SC Moore, TC Smith, SJ Croft, PJ Horton, MJ Chilton, GD Cross†, G Chapple*, G Keedy, SI Mahmood, SD Parry, SC Kerrigan

Essex are no value at all with that team, home advantage or not really..

[Wanderer89]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Another cracking call otter, the unders was never in doubt and couldn't resist following with that line. :clap

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Cracking game... Unlucky with Lancs Kev, but credit to Essex, Bopara, in some serious form in recent weeks, failed but others stepped up...

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 No joy tonight. Northants never showed up and Lancashire got touched off in a thriller. -17.55 overall. If there is any good news tonight it's that Hampshire got the easier of the semi final draws but that's small consolation.

[League1_punter]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Unlucky tonight. Lancs threw that away with poor fielding. The game went when Smith dropped that catch then got smacked the next over. Very unlucky tonight

[Otter4]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Thanks wanderer89 ;) everything came together for that bet! From the moment there was that calamitous second ball run out, they were always struggling. Great call on unders for first wicket as well fishy :clap easy! I'm disappointed with the semi final draw, notts were the ones to avoid. Although with pollard to return here's hoping to go one step further than last year!

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20

No joy tonight. Northants never showed up and Lancashire got touched off in a thriller. -17.55 overall. If there is any good news tonight it's that Hampshire got the easier of the semi final draws but that's small consolation.

Your talking as a supporter not a backer now??? Another plus is the longer Somerset are in, the longer Hildreth has to top their runscorers!

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Right let's get this thread rocking and rolling again with just 5 days to go until the greatest day of sport of any year :clap:clap:clap. Best outright prices now are: 5/2 Notts - Boylesports 13/5 Somerset - Sportingbet 7/2 Essex - Stan James 7/2 Hampshire - Skybet And semi final prices:

Saturday 14 August 2010	Home	Away	BPP
	Hampshire v Essex (12:30 BST)	2	2	100.00 %
	Nottinghamshire v Somerset (16:00 BST)	2	2	100.00 %

Can't get more even than that :loon.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 An early outright for me. 4pts Nottinghamshire to win Twenty20 Cup 5/2 Boylesports How Nottinghamshire have yet to win this competition I've no idea but I think this could well be their year. With the news that England have released Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann for finals day, the Outlaws have by far the best squad coming into the event, particularly in their bowling attack. The likes of Graeme Swann, an opener at this level in the past, could also boost their batting lineup too. However a bowling attack of Dirk Nannes, Ryan Sidebottom, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann and maybe Darren Pattinson looks very tough to face indeed. Samit Patel and Graeme White could well be backing them up. Hussey can bowl too so this Outlaws side is more than equipped with the ball. As ever the batting can be of a concern but Hussey is in the form of his life at the minute and the opening duo of Hales and Brown can be explosive. Patel, Wood and Read can all tick it over when it's needed. I really see Nottinghamshire as the standout side here. Of the other 3, well Hampshire are hosts which probably means they should be respected but there's no consistency in their cricket. Essex have a few injuries although if ten Doeschate is passed fit, that would be a big boost. Danish Kaneria has yet to be confirmed as a starter and Dwayne Bravo is playing his 1st cricket in the competition. Somerset probably rate as the main danger to Nottinghamshire. Previous winners and finalists last year, Marcus Trescothick's men deserve a lot of respect but there's always the feeling that away from Taunton the animal is tamed somewhat. Big Kieron's back for the Cidermen though and with a batting lineup like theirs they can't be completely ruled out. As I've said throughout the competition bowling attacks win twenty20 matches and Nottinghamshire have the standout one of those. History tells us you want to be looking at the 2nd semi final winners as the champions elect with 6 of the 7 winners of this great competition coming from the 2nd semi final (Somerset last year were the only abnomalies). Notts are in that 2nd semi final so I'm confident enough to have a pretty strong outright bet on David Hussey's men to finally land twenty20 glory.

[Wanderer89]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Good write up. As soon as i saw these odds i was thinking notts and well worth the 5/2. Hope their batting line up holds strong enough to reach the final!

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 As a slight add on to what I wrote above, although all 4 England players have been made available to their counties, Hampshire, as I suspected, have told Pietersen where to go so he won't be playing on finals day :ok.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Another bet for finals day. This was so close to being a max bet but I've decided to stick to 8pts given the importance of the day. 8pts No maidens to be bowled Evs William Hill This price looks way way way too big for me here. There's been 7 previous finals days and in all the overs that's been bowled - 120x7 which is 840 give or take a few overs, there's been just 2 maidens bowled in those finals days. That's a maiden just about every 400 overs. Given that the last maiden to be bowled was in the penultimate over of last year's finals day, we're not due one for a couple of years. Of course, I'm not going to back a bet this strongly on the basis that we're not due one for a while ;). In the tournament so far in 2010, Hampshire have bowled 321.3 overs and they've yielded just 3 maidens which is one every 107 overs. Essex have bowled 335.3 maidens and only 1 of those was a maiden. Nottinghamshire have bowled 322.1 overs for 2 maidens - an average of 161 overs per maiden. Somerset have bowled the most maidens in the tournament so far with 4 maidens from 335 overs - just under 84 overs per maiden. It must be said that 2 of those maidens were in that Hampshire match at the Rose Bowl on the pitch which cost Hampshire 1pt in next year's competition such was it's awfulness. In total, these 4 sides have bowled 1313.5 overs in the tournament to date and produced 10 maidens - an average of 131.35 overs per maiden. We're due for a maximum of 120 overs on finals day. Reversing that, Hampshire have faced 325.3 overs this year of which only 4 overs have been maidens. As I said above, 2 of those were on that nightmare wicket against Somerset. 4 maidens from 325.3 is just over 81 overs per maiden. Essex have batted for 327.4 overs so far and given up 2 maidens - 164 overs per maiden give or take a ball. Nottinghamshire have batted 305.3 overs and they've yielded only 2 maidens, both in the same match against a very disciplined Northants bowling attack. Somerset have batted for 316.5 overs of which only 3 were maidens. Essex, Notts and Somerset all average way over 100 overs per maiden and of course the most any of the sides will face on Saturday is 40 overs. So the stats point to no maidens being bowled and this is finals day so we're almost guaranteed a good wicket. The last finals day to be held here produced 1st innings totals of 173/7, 138/6 which got chased down in 15 overs and in the final Middlesex put up 187/6 which was only enough by 3 runs. It was an excellent wicket. The ODI wicket at the Rose Bowl when Australia were here earlier in the summer was a good wicket for batting and Hampshire have scored 200 here on 3 occasions this year so it's generally been a good wicket at the Rose Bowl this year barring that one anomaly. The stats suggest that this is more like a 1/50 shot. It's certainly not an even money shot so at Evens a very big bet on no maidens on finals day is my 2nd bet for Saturday.

[tomp1862]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Fantastic stats and brilliantly thought out bet Kev, surely the true odds are more 2/7 than 1/50 based on the previous 840 overs? Factoring the teams playing in this years final I guess this is a little less than 2/7 but not 1/50. Sorry to be picky! It is a fantastic bet and the reasoning is top draw!

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20

Fantastic stats and brilliantly thought out bet Kev' date=' surely the true odds are more 2/7 than 1/50 based on the previous 840 overs? Factoring the teams playing in this years final I guess this is a little less than 2/7 but not 1/50. Sorry to be picky! It is a fantastic bet and the reasoning is top draw![/quote'] Didn't think I was going to get quoted literally on the 1/50 shot :lol. With all stats mixed in it's probably a 1/7 or 1/8 shot. Either way, the main point was it's no even money shot hence the large bet. Right, I'm at the athletics tomorrow night and heading down to Southampton from there so not sure if I'll be on for long tomorrow so I'm gonna do most of my finals day bets tonight. Here's the next one. 1pt ew M.Walker Top Finals Day Batsman 33/1 Stan James (1/4 1,2,3,4) There was a darts bet in the matchplay a few weeks ago where the most 180's market was going to be dominated by the two in the final and I think that is likely to be the case in this market here. I think the two sides who make the final will produce the day's top scorer. I think the final will be between Essex and Nottinghamshire so I'm looking at those two sides respectively. There's many candidates in both sides. Notts have Hales, Brown, Patel and Hussey all live candidates. Even Matthew Wood is a solid scorer. Essex have Bopara, Cook, Bravo, ten Doeschate and even Pettini but the one I'm taking here is Matt Walker. He's batted well for Essex this season and in the dying embers of his career is looking to go out with a bang. Walker is a big game player for the Eagles and he played a masterful knock in the semi final with his 74* guiding the Eagles to this showpiece occasion. Since that semi final he's top scored in a couple of Championship innings, admittedly only 30s and 40s but it shows he's the form man in the lineup, and he's also played a rescuing innings in the CB40 against Northants. With I think, two innings to bat and probably coming in at number 3, Walker is overpriced at 33/1. He's seen it all before and has top scored in a twenty20 final in the past so I'll take him at 33/1.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 3 more outrights for the day. 1pt ew S.Broad Top Finals Day Wicket taker 12/1 Blue Square (1/4 1,2,3,4) Was torn between two for this market. Stuart Broad or Graeme Swann. I've gone with Broad though in case there's a bit of moisture around which makes gripping the ball hard for Swann. Stuart Broad is an aggressive bowler. We've seen that this last week but he's also a very good bowler in this format. He's accurate and pacey but he's got that slower ball bouncer in his armoury too. He hasn't played much county cricket over the last couple of seasons so he might have a bit of a surprise factor in him too. Again, this market could well be between players in the two finalists. I think Broad will be in the final and if he is he'll have taken wickets to get the Outlaws there and he can take them there. 4 wickets could pinch this and that's well within Broad's radar so it's the tall paceman for me. 1.5pts R.ten Doeschate Top Finals Day 6 hitter 8/1 Blue Square Ryan ten Doeschate has missed a lot of cricket with his calf injury but he's been in the nets for the last week or two so he'll have hit a lot of cricket balls so should be in good shape coming into finals day. Despite only playing 5 of Essex's 17 matches, such was ten Doeschate's form he's 5th on the total 6's list with only one opponent in finals day above him. That man is Kieron Pollard but he's hit 27 6's in 14 innings and ten Doeschate has 19 in 5 innings. Such is the standard ten Doeschate's total is at, David Hussey, one of the top runscorers in the competition, has had 16 innings and has hit only 19 6's. Ryan ten Doeschate is as clean a hitter of a cricket ball as there is going around the county game today and Essex will need his runs so I expect him to bat 4 and won't be surprised at all if he sends a few balls over the ropes throughout the day. At 8/1 I think he's a decent bet to be top 6 hitter. 1pt M.Kartik Most Economical Bowler 6/1 Stan James This market is between 12 men who must all bowl at least 2 overs through the day else there's a rule 4. The 12 men concerned are: Alfonso Thomas, Murali Kartik, Graeme Swann, Ryan Sidebottom, Danish Kaneria, Stuart Broad, Danny Briggs, Ravi Bopara, Dominic Cork, David Masters, Chris Wood and Ben Phillips. Unlike the top batsman or top bowler markets, I think this is more likely to be won by someone who loses in the semi final. The theory behind that being less overs to bowl equates to less overs than can be attacked. One man who is almost certain to go well is Murali Kartik and what I like about him is such is the threat he poses, on a wicket which will have been used for 40 overs by the time he plays, is that the Notts batsmen might just play him out rather than get after him and try and attack the seamers who in theory should be easier to get away the longer the day goes. Kartik bowled 8 overs on finals day here in 2008 when Middlesex won the competition and he conceded only 48 runs - a run a ball. His semi final tally was 4 overs for 18 - 4.5 an over. Kartik's the 2nd most economical bowler on show in the final 4 over this year's competition with only Alfonso Thomas more economical. I expect him to be easier to hit than a spinner the further we go and with that in mind, and the safety that if Somerset do win their semi he'll be even harder to score off in a final which will have a pitch at least 80 overs old, then I'll go for the Indian spin wizard to be the most economical bowler over the course of finals day.

[tomp1862]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 Sorry Kev! Regardless of if it wins or not finding a 1/7 shot at evens is fantastic. Well done and good luck with your bets.

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Cricket: Friends Provident Twenty 20 No Michael Lumb for Hampshire at the top of the order, broken ankle after being struck whilst in close fielding by England and fellow opener Kieswetter, in the county championship game.:eek