How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

[1907zico]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

A punter who "foccusses on strike rates" is likely to back selections who are not value.

Don't fully agree over here. I just cannot see why there cannot be punter, and I am speaking for myself here, who do a combination of both - focussing on strike rate, wanting value on the selections at the same time. Of course this will lead to a smaller number of bets, but again speaking for myself it does work very well. Of course it is yet a small sample size, but then again its reasonable as we simply should only have a small number of bets (if specialized on a single league). All talk about value, but not many out there can tell me that they are taking into consideration every detail to determine the real value. Of course some people may do well with their estimations finding out value, but often they have to face the reality that over long-time it seems very difficult to determine the right percentages to make long-time profit by value selections. Reasons are obvious, factors which are included into the estimations (if your at least doing this somewhat serious) are changing very often and many factors are hard to predict, making possible adjustments doubtful. A few % on the wrong side can decide whether the selection has to be placed (another point I do not like, that some take every "value bet" by their system) or will be skipped. Discussing this is nice, but it is a fact that both approaches require deep analysis on the respective league(s). Betting is work too, those who think they can achieve profit without putting effort into it, are always having the same ending.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Indeed Zico, very true! I think I mentioned it in the OP, but the "look for winners, then see if there's value" is a VERY common way to bet, and equally successful! It's the most used I'd assume, and I use it myself most of the time :)

[Shy10ck]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Indeed Zico, very true! I think I mentioned it in the OP, but the "look for winners, then see if there's value" is a VERY common way to bet, and equally successful! It's the most used I'd assume, and I use it myself most of the time :)

What do you look for, when you are looking for winners? Form, strength, gut feeling or... ?

[Kanga]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Whichever selection method you choose your looking for your strike rate % to be better than the average odds % calculates to be. Generally speaking, if you follow the crowd you'll end up in Tesco's .... you need to be looking at angles where overly generous prices can be found.

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Great post :ok Ignoring value is the most costly mistake in sportsbetting. The other half is analyzing each game down to the smallest detail, to estimate probabilities more accurate than the bookies. This is in my opinion, a much to time comsuming exersize, that in worst case risk to overrate details and make value disappear or to appear where there is none. Besides that, the amount of time spend analyzing, could be used to find value in more games, through less time consuming methods. I think the truth is somewhere inbetween these two point of views.

Even a value seeker has to be good at evaluating form. If a punter who is no good at evaluating form studies any sport, it will not matter how long he looks at it; he won't make a profit. Therefore, if a punter studies for a long time and makes a loss, he can sometimes blame the form study instead of himself. Those who are good at evaluating form will not "over rate details" :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Don't fully agree over here. I just cannot see why there cannot be punter, and I am speaking for myself here, who do a combination of both - focussing on strike rate, wanting value on the selections at the same time. Of course this will lead to a smaller number of bets, but again speaking for myself it does work very well. Of course it is yet a small sample size, but then again its reasonable as we simply should only have a small number of bets (if specialized on a single league). Discussing this is nice, but it is a fact that both approaches require deep analysis on the respective league(s). Betting is work too, those who think they can achieve profit without putting effort into it, are always having the same ending.

Zico, You are right, you can do both, wanting a good strike rate and value. Nothing wrong with that.:ok But my point was made about foccussing on strike rates alone. To do as you describe is not "foccussing on strike rates" because value is the key in your work. ie If value is not there, it does not matter if a bet has a good chance of improving your strike rate; there is NO BET. It's when a punter does not care about value, and foccusses too much on strike rates where there's little chance of overall profit.:)

[1907zico]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Makes sense, good strike rate does only mean profit if the price is above of what your likelyhood of the bet is. At the end we all have to agree that effort has to be put in to make profit. ;)

[Observer]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) still confused :(:unsure:(:unsure

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) What is it you don't understand Observer? You might want to take a look at#111 of Horse Racing Glossary / Q&A in the stickies of the At The Racs - Horse Racing Forum section which explains the principles of value betting. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Ginge, why dont you put that famous post as your sig, it will save you mentioning it every week!:lol

[ianmt36]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) My first post - but I have been watching for some time so thanks for all the info. I'm not sure if its been mentioned before but while I was searching I came across this site www.sportingsystems.com which has horse racing probability data you can download. Thanks again for all the info :clap

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) hi all,please allow me to throw a spanner in the works. whilst i totally understand what has been said about value let me tell you that in fact it IS possible to win long-term without betting value!!! this phenomenon occurs on a regular basis in long-term betting and,indeed,is one of the main reasons why it is much easier to make money from long-term bets than from short-term bets ie you do not need to find value.

[Drawsandmore]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Hi Moggis “it IS possible to win long-term without betting value!!!” Surely a more accurate statement would be “it is possible to win long term without consciously betting value”. In the long term, and judged over hundreds or better yet, thousands of bets at level(ish) stakes…No crazy Martingale staking here!! You can be in profit without ever considering value. But, if you are in profit, you have been making value bets! You have proven that in that particular series of bets, you been better at predicting the outcome of whatever event you are betting on than the vast majority of punters…And it is the vast majority of punters who determine the S/P that the Bookmakers/Exchanges return. It doesn’t matter if you sit down to determine the likely outcome of an event with no regard for value, or if you only bet on something that you perceive has value in it. In either instance, you will have to make a judgement regarding the likely outcome of the event. If your judgement is better than most you may show a profit. If it is considerably better than most you will probably show a profit. If your judgement is worse than the majority you will lose…and if it is on a par with everyone else you’ll also lose due to the bookmakers overround/Exchanges commission. So, my “truths” are: In the long term, you can only be profitable if your predictions are more accurate than the majority of punters. In the long term, you can only be profitable by making value bets. In the long term, if you are in profit, you are making value bets whether or not you realise or choose to acknowledge it. Spanner thrown into the works!!

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) thanks for your reply. before i go to the trouble of answering with an example etc,i should make clear that by long-term i am,in fact referring to antepost betting. does that alter your position at all? there is absolutely no argument from me about value and short-term bets(ie bets on one game/event

[angeal]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

thanks for your reply. before i go to the trouble of answering with an example etc,i should make clear that by long-term i am,in fact referring to antepost betting. does that alter your position at all? there is absolutely no argument from me about value and short-term bets(ie bets on one game/event

Hi Moggis On a couple of entries you talk about ante post betting and long term value - what makets do you focus on - horse racing / golf / tennis ? Al

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) football and county championship cricket mainly

[western skies]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

thanks for your reply. before i go to the trouble of answering with an example etc,i should make clear that by long-term i am,in fact referring to antepost betting. does that alter your position at all? there is absolutely no argument from me about value and short-term bets(ie bets on one game/event

Even if you bet exclusively in antepost markets, you still need to be making value bets to win consistently. Of course, you don't necessarily have to know that you're making value bets, but any selection criteria that results in consistent profits year upon year must be finding value, even if it isn't designed to.

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) i totally,totally get what you are saying and i understand why you believe it to be true... but it isnt true!! i have noticed on this site that geoff harveys book gets very good reviews. on page 30 of his book he states that as a rule he does not bet on any market with more than 4 runners. this is because the overounds (on antepost soccer bets)are 30%+!!!! consequently there is hardly ANY value on antepost bets and any that there is will be meagre....... YET,i tell you that i expect to make 80% profit on turnover this coming season from antepost bets.......

[western skies]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

consequently there is hardly ANY value on antepost bets and any that there is will be meagre....... YET,i tell you that i expect to make 80% profit on turnover this coming season from antepost bets.......

If you consistently bet on selections where the odds are less than the true probabilty, then you cannot possibly win in the long term. It stands to reason that you must be finding bets where the odds are wrong, even if you don't know it at the time. If value in antepost markets is irrelevant, then why don't the bookies work to a 300% overround? And would you still bet in those markets if they did?

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) wow,thats a great question!! much appreciated...let me think about that..... and,btw, i am grateful that you are treating me politely.i realise you must think i am an idiot for saying what i am saying!

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) i think i can answer the first question quite quickly... i would have thought that if they did that then it would be apparent to 90% of antepost punters that tthe prices are all terrible value....consequently their loss of turnover would be very bad. 130%is theoretically the most they can get away with while still disguising the lack of value(but maximising turnover). as for the 2nd part...it might help me decide if you were to give me some prices for say the top 6 in the betting in lge 1 in such a market. ALSO how would a 300% overound work at the end of the season with 2 runners? thanks once again for a great question!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Hi again Moggis, I did understand that you were referring to ante post betting. When I used long term, I meant many bets over a period of time, rather than one bet placed days, weeks or months ahead of the event. I used long term and many bets deliberately. In the short term, anyone can win regardless of value in the bets they make...It's called luck/fate, and it is the reason that I might be profitable playing roulette in the short term, but over a sustained period I will lose, because the lack of value will catch up with me. If you make 80% profit this season from many bets, whether or not they are antepost, I assure you that you have been making value bets, and bloody good ones at that! I may have misunderstood you, but have you not contradicted yourself in this thread? Earlier you stated: "whilst i totally understand what has been said about value let me tell you that in fact it IS possible to win long-term without betting value!!! this phenomenon occurs on a regular basis in long-term betting and,indeed,is one of the main reasons why it is much easier to make money from long-term bets than from short-term bets ie you do not need to find value". But then later in the thread: "it might help me decide if you were to give me some prices for say the top 6 in the betting in lge 1 in such a market". Surely if you disregard the concept of value when deciding to bet, you don't need the S/P...You have already decided what the likely outcome is and bet accordingly. If you require the S/P before betting you are consciously, (and sensibly), factoring value into your bet. Purely as an example, If I could get 10/1 Man. United to win the Prem. next year, and Chelsea were offered at 1/10, I'd be all over Man United in a heartbeat. If the odds were reversed I'd be on Chelsea...I suspect you would bet in exactly the same way!

[western skies]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

i think i can answer the first question quite quickly... i would have thought that if they did that then it would be apparent to 90% of antepost punters that tthe prices are all terrible value....consequently their loss of turnover would be very bad.

You've hit the nail on the head there. Everybody has a price that they consider to be value. They may not sit down and calculate true odds for each and every market they bet on, but subconciously they are looking for a "good" price.

as for the 2nd part...it might help me decide if you were to give me some prices for say the top 6 in the betting in lge 1 in such a market. ALSO how would a 300% overound work at the end of the season with 2 runners?

It's a hypothetical question (so, no I'm not going to calculate League 1 to a 300% overround for you :lol) and obviously a 300% overround would involve both sides being sub 1.01 in a 2 horse market, but we're talking antepost with fields of more than 4 runners here. ;) Let me give you another hypothetical example. You can get 9/1 on Liverpool to win the FA Cup this season - that's a 1 in 10 chance. Now, let's say when you actually take everything into account (squad strength, motivation, etc etc) they actually only have a 1 in 12 chance of winning it. You might back them at 9/1 and get lucky this year - this might be the 1 time in 12 that they actually win the cup. But what happens if you pick another 1 in 12 shot and back it at 9/1 next year? And the year after that? Are you going to keep getting lucky? The maths should tell you that eventually you'll come unstuck and you'll be winning 1 bet in 12 at odds of 9/1 - ie losing money. Now, I appreciate that's a really basic example and of course calculating "true" odds is a subjective process, but the basic premise is sound. If you are making a profit long-term, then you must be betting at odds that are greater than the true probability of the outcome.

and,btw, i am grateful that you are treating me politely.i realise you must think i am an idiot for saying what i am saying!

I don't think you're an idiot at all. You can't be if you're making the sort of profit you claim to be. I just disagree with the assertion that value is irrelevant in antepost markets. :ok

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok let me say something before i try to answer both posts. very soon this is going to get to the point where the only way i am going to be able to answer accurately will also involve me divulging the way that this is done. NOW i realise that you may well believe that there is no way...but the point is that on another thread i have just told someone that i dont want to explain this connundrum right now....soooo i will continue to answer any points until we get too near.i hope you understand

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) western skies, if i was to only bet on one thing it WOULD have to be value,indeed.

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) okie dokie Drawsandmore,there is no contradiction-you have made a false assumption and i cannot tell you what it is (re my post on divulging). OF COURSE i take advantage of any value bets that come my way!! i just dont need them. earlier today i was astonished to see that stan james had priced hearts at 2s without the old firm!dunno if its still there but it is CLEAR value.(unfortunate they are 1 of 2 bookies who dont take my bets). actually you appear to have made 2 assumptions.

[ChrisB]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Interesting Stuff, ! ALL PUNTERS WHO ARE IN PROFIT IN THE LONG TERM ARE ON THE VALUE. The term value simply determines punters who are in profit than punters who are not. VALUE IS NOT A SYSTEM BUT ONLY THE PROFIT. it's nonsense to talk value longtime. Because value is the FINALITY , not the beginning. The beginning, is the conception of systems, ratings or other that will produce the profit : VALUE

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) do you want a reply to that?

[ChrisB]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

do you want a reply to that?

of course ;)

[moggis]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well the way you have made that post makes it look as if you have found those statements elsewhere. if thats true can you tell me where?