How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

[Staines Passive]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) An excellent post, and I'm with the school of value betting - anything else IMO will have you lose money in the long run - how you find this value is the golden ticket, but this really is an excellent pointer and one that I will have a little dabble with myself. Out of interest will you be using your own ratings system to get the ball rolling at the start of the season or will you wait for the 1st 8-10 games to be played out?

[Gooner80]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Great great post:clap:clap:clap:clap When I did analysis of how accurate the bookies are at predicting odds I did it over 50,000 games and I found out that if you took the bet brain average odds as your indicator the bookies we right 90% of the time with the 10% just being noise in the statistics due to shock results so as you say the bookies are pretty decent at getting the odds right, the only thing like you say is that the bookies compile odds on every game but the punter can pick his games, which means putting in say 5 times more work into a particular game than the bookie and then we might just beat the bookie

[protop]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Hi Gooner80 You have certainly done some research into bookies odds, 50,000 is a fair old sample. Just one question, when you say the bookmakers were right, how do you define right. What criteria were you using? Thanks Protop

[Observer]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Thanks for all the texts..I'm a bit confused and I need an example if anyone of you shows, Imagine a match Internationale - Barcelona odds (bet365 or any other) 1> 2,30 0> 3,00 2> 2,30 Some info Inter won last 5 matches (3 at home 2 away) scored 5, conceded 0 goals, (milito scored 4) Barca won last 5 matches ( 2 at home 3 away) scored 14, conceded 2 goals (ibrahimovic scored 3) Milito is injured Ibrahimovic is injured Inter is 2nd in Seria A Barca is 1st in La Liga The weather is ok, warm, the pitch is ok no problem and no other problems, everything is ok, fans, management etc...for both clubs now how could I find the "VALUE" now I know it may not be enough but I just want a simple example with the info above...

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) hey Jens, nice post :ok I have a question, in your example to calculate value (for example, you estimate a 50% chance of winning and the bookies odds are 2.20, you have a 110% result), does that go the same for laying an outcome if the equation results in, lets say 80%? if so, is the value equal going in the negative direction as it is going in the positive? (is 110% value backing equal to 90% value laying) thanks in advance!

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Not quite, but close. The best way to find value in lays is to convert the lay odds to back odds, using the following formula: 1/(N-1)+1; where N = lay odds so for 2.20, we get 1/(2.20-1)+1 (1/1.20)+1 = 1.83 so laying at 2.20 is the same as backing at 1.83, and thus we can find the value from there; 1.83*50 = 91.5%

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Excellent stuff Jenspm. I've been "preaching" :lol the same VALUE mantra for years on the ATR section. With varied amounts of success. Afraid Jtw is a lost cause. ;) Deserves to be in the stickies! :ok One of these days am going to go through a race in minute detail (before any betting forecast is known) and do a 100% book / betting forcast. One of the "Spotlight" writers in the Racing Post suggested I should put in for a job. Trouble is, the newbies always start with Class 5 and 6 rubbish; and I've rarely worked out that grade (not very good at poor quality racing.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Do you always set-up a full percentage forecast for your horse races? If so I'm mightily impressed - well done! I find it extremely difficult to find accurate percentages on an entire field - be it horse racing, formula 1 or golf. Of course, practice makes perfect, but football and other 1/2 matchups are quite a bit easier, heh. Keep preaching the value :)

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Work out a 100% book for most races Jenspm. Maidens, where there's so many on their debut are difficult (not impossible). Been doing it for years, with the aid of Timeform form books. Take a look at the ATR section stickies Glossary #111 for a similar post to yours, more to do with racing. If you want to see a thread on how it is done, then "How To Produce A 100% Book" is another thread you might find interesting (on page 61 of the ATR Horse Racing Forum). :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I would've thought football was more difficult than racing. Needing to know all the injuries, if Rooney plays better with Giggs in the team etc, which players are in form, out of form, what system are they likely to play, a defender's particular record against a foreward, how new signings will effect the team. Are a team's recent lack of form to do with lesser players, is there a lack of confidence of one or more players, or is confidence high, is their cup form likely to carry over / effect them, is the head to head relevent, are the two teams home and away records significant? And so on.... All of course related to this one game.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Well you could say that, but compared to say, F1 (which is where I bet the most, really), I'd say it's easier because you have so many stats to grab. All the teams play 19 home games and 19 away games each year, the pitch is the same size each time, and the ball equally round. In F1 (and horse racing, though I'd argue not to the same extent) the track changes drastically every race, the weather is a huge factor, and the cars are (somewhat secretly) changed every week. You can grab a driver or cars form at a specific track, but the cars change so much that it's hard to determine how valid it is. However, this opens up a great opportunity if you do your research and work hard - bookies are often far out with their F1 odds, whereas they're pretty damn accurate with football. In short, football betting can much easier be backed on hard stats - wins, draws and losses, which you don't have in F1.

[Gingertipster]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I used to bet quite a bit in F1 way back when... Betfair did not have such status. Bookmakers odds varied to such an enormous amount. Remember one "wet race" when Shumi was mid to back of the grid, something like 5/2 with one bookie, 7/1 with another. You never get that with racing. Made a good profit, mainly backing against Schumacher, with McClaren and Williams. Although when Michael had one year of invinvibility it shook my belief, the odds became more cramped and decided to concentrate on the sport I know best. Afraid I don't know enough about it these days to bet. The one that sticks in my mind was Damon Hill (in the Jordan) @ 33/1 (I think) at Spa (I think). Did some work for an ex-owner or boss or something of the (70's) McClaren team (an American). He was (in the 80's (90's?) something to do with Pensche Racing. This was at Sandbanks near Poole, Dorset, England. Can't recall his name, any ideas? :lol

[trips]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) IMO,you cant win over a long period if you are backing a selection that is not value. to me all value means is getting a bigger price for a selection than its true chance of winning. so in theory if you believe you selection should win about 1 in 3 times and you can get over 2/1 you have got value, if you get under 2/1 its not value and over time you wil loose. i am not dismissing the maths but it still boils down to opinion,i cant just back any horse and look for the best price and assume just because Ive got the best price Ive got value. many a time Ive fancied a horse in a big handicap only to see its price at 2/1,No bet for me. i may even back the horse i rated as the danger if the price is a lot bigger than i assumed.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

IMO,you cant win over a long period if you are backing a selection that is not value. to me all value means is getting a bigger price for a selection than its true chance of winning. so in theory if you believe you selection should win about 1 in 3 times and you can get over 2/1 you have got value, if you get under 2/1 its not value and over time you wil loose. i am not dismissing the maths but it still boils down to opinion,i cant just back any horse and look for the best price and assume just because Ive got the best price Ive got value. many a time Ive fancied a horse in a big handicap only to see its price at 2/1,No bet for me. i may even back the horse i rated as the danger if the price is a lot bigger than i assumed.

Some people will hate me for this, but alas.. Not only is it your (and my) opinion - it is a fact. If you keep backing selections without value, you will lose money. Simple as - no buts, ifs or opinions - a selection must have value to be profitable in the long run :)

[Machine]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

a selection must have value to be profitable in the long run :)

How longs "in the long run" ?

[Shinigami]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

How longs "in the long run" ?

"In the long run we're all dead" - John Maynard keynes

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

How longs "in the long run" ?

Depends on how lucky/unlucky you are. Simple mathematics show that betting on negative value picks will produce a loss. Let's create a situation here - Wigan play Blackpool an endless number of times, every day for en endless amount of years. In every single game, Wigan have a 60% chance of winning. The odds are always 1.60 - under-priced with negative value. But you bet on them anyway, every single game. with betting like this, you'll eventually end up with a 96% return of your stakes - a loss. However, the percentage only shows how often the team will win, not at what time. So, who's to say the team won't win 60 times in a row, and then lose 40 times in a row? Or 600 wins, then 400 losses? The chances are slim, but present. So, in theory, you can Wigan at odds of negative value throughout your entire life and pass the bank on to your kids, grandkids etc and still end up profiting. Thing is, you'd have to be the luckiest man on the planet. Your betting becomes equivalent to picking lottery numbers - you are the underdog against the bookies, and only luck will give you a profit. Most people won't, and if you live to eternity, you won't either. But to answer your question in a more concrete, less abstract way, I'll leave you with a percentage - namely the chance of profiting after 10 of these bets. For those of you who enjoy maths, stick with me. The rest, scroll down to the bottom. At odds of 1.6, you'd need at least 7 winners to profit. Now, we've already placed a Wigan-win at 60% - thus there are 60 winners in every 100 games. if we pick 10 games from those 100, there are nCr(100,10) = 17310309456440 different combinations of winning and losing 7 winners can be achieved in nCr(60,7)*nCr(40,3) = 3815724369600 different combinations. Divide this number with the previous one and we get the probability of seven winners: (nCr(60,7)*nCr(40,3))/nCr(100,10) = 22% You'll also find the chance of 8 winners to be 12%, 9 winners to be 3% and the chance of having all ten winners 0.4% Add those up and you'll find that the chance of being in profit after TEN bets on this slightly under-priced team is 37.4%. This percentage gets smaller and smaller and smaller the more bets you place. Had the odds been at 1.70 instead, representing value, the chance of profit after 10 bets jumps to 63.8% and this'll only rise the more bets you place.

[Machine]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) so what your saying is "" in the long run"" is infinitesimal and during this time depends on how lucky you are. So were not talking value were talking luck.

[Machine]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Had the odds been at 1.70 instead, representing value, the chance of profit after 10 bets jumps to 63.8% and this'll only rise the more bets you place.

Only if you have correctly guessed what the odds should be and then the teams win at precisely or better than the proportion relative to what you predict. That's some mighty good guessing ;) If ""in the long run"" is infinitesimal then it does not matter whether you "value" bet or not as you can never reach your goal.

[Jase82]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Depends on how lucky/unlucky you are.

See, I'm hoping this was a slip of the tongue Jens:hope So to speak. I hate when the term 'luck' is used in sports betting. Because you can't quantify luck. Luck is a term used to describe a series of totally random unpradictable factors that may or may not go for or against you. The minute you start thinking of a bet as unlucky, it completely changes your psyche. Before long you will make bad calls. Luck does not exist. Only bad punting.

[trips]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

so what your saying is "" in the long run"" is infinitesimal and during this time depends on how lucky you are. So were not talking value were talking luck.

look at it this way,a casino wins by giving you shorter odds than the true odds of your bet. it could be argued that Casinos only win because they are lucky, we all know this is not the case they are betting you something will happen and give you shorter odds than its true chances.by taking the shorter odds many times you loose to the casino.thats why a casino will do everything they can to keep someone gambling as they know ,the longer you take unfavorable odds the more certain you are to loose. to win at gambling you also have to place bets at bigger odds than its true chances.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

See, I'm hoping this was a slip of the tongue Jens:hope So to speak. I hate when the term 'luck' is used in sports betting. Because you can't quantify luck. Luck is a term used to describe a series of totally random unpradictable factors that may or may not go for or against you. The minute you start thinking of a bet as unlucky, it completely changes your psyche. Before long you will make bad calls. Luck does not exist. Only bad punting.

I was referring to the fact that you will lose money if you keep betting on picks with negative value 'in the long run'. How long this run it, purely depends on luck in this scenario. To put it differently; If you are having profits with bets of negative value, it is purely luck, and the length of this spell of profit is also decided by how lucky you are. It involves as much skill as winning the lottery, really. Likewise, you can go on a long spell of losses with high-value picks. This is called bad luck, and the length of this spell of losses is decided by how unlucky you are. However, luck, be it good or bad, can only last so long, and in the end, 'in the long run' you will profit if you pick the value. The question was how long this long run is - that depends (somewhat) on luck - you cannot do anything to decide when Wigan win their sixty games, if we use the scenario from my previous post.

Only if you have correctly guessed what the odds should be and then the teams win at precisely or better than the proportion relative to what you predict. That's some mighty good guessing ;)

It's not guessing, it is predicting, and the pure essence of sports betting. I go through this prediction every time, as do 99.9% of all other long-term profitable betters, whether they know it or not. Just thinking "those odds are too large" is often enough - you are thinking probability, you are thinking value. If you totally disregard the odds given, any profit you may have is based on pure luck.

If ""in the long run"" is infinitesimal then it does not matter whether you "value" bet or not as you can never reach your goal.

In theory, you can place an infinite number of value bets and still go in with a loss. But that's the wonders of infinity and theoretical maths - fun, isn't it? But I've already showed the chance of having a profit after 10 value bets, and this chance grows and grows the more bets you place, all the way up to a 99.999....9% chance of long-term profit if you continue betting value. Likewise, I posted the chance of profit after 10 non-value bets, and this chance slims and slims and slims the more bets you place, all the way down to a 0.000...1% chance of profit. I would love to continue to dwelve into abstract mathematical theory, but it is really irrelevant to what we're dealing with here. To answer you're question bluntly - it's your choice. The chance of profit with value is 99.999...9%, the chance of profit without value is 0.000...1% - which one do you pick?

[Machine]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

look at it this way,a casino wins by giving you shorter odds than the true odds of your bet. it could be argued that Casinos only win because they are lucky, we all know this is not the case they are betting you something will happen and give you shorter odds than its true chances.by taking the shorter odds many times you loose to the casino.thats why a casino will do everything they can to keep someone gambling as they know ,the longer you take unfavorable odds the more certain you are to loose. to win at gambling you also have to place bets at bigger odds than its true chances.

But in a casino the percentages are FIXED (as in always the same not crooked). In sports betting they are not as it is a one off event never to be repeated so you cannot say if i backed team x against team y 100 times blah blah blah would happen as this would never occur, so you are just fooling yourself believing that scenario. Since Bayes theorm was published in 1763 people have been saying the same thing as jens is "all you have to do is back at a better price than the percentage suggests" dead easy isn't it. ;) Around 98% of punters are losers so they say. When I go on any message board I always bump into the 2% of winning "value" punters,I find that truly amazing :loon

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

But in a casino the percentages are FIXED (as in always the same not crooked). In sports betting they are not as it is a one off event never to be repeated so you cannot say if i backed team x against team y 100 times blah blah blah would happen as this would never occur, so you are just fooling yourself believing that scenario.

But there will be 100 instances where a team has a 60% chance of winning and the odds are 1.70, there is, really, no practical difference to a punter.

Since Bayes theorm was published in 1763 people have been saying the same thing as jens is "all you have to do is back at a better price than the percentage suggests" dead easy isn't it. ;) Around 98% of punters are losers so they say. When I go on any message board I always bump into the 2% of winning "value" punters,I find that truly amazing :loon

That's because people who spend time on forums are a very small minority in the betting world, and also a minority who, in my experience, know quite a bit more about betting than the average joe. The amount of losing punters is so high because average betters don't really consider value to the same degree, and solely pick the team they think will win. Do not make the mistake of under-estimating the talent we have here at the Punters Lounge :) I never said it was easy - it definitely isn't. That's why most people lose money on betting, that's why bookies exist..

[Jase82]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

I was referring to the fact that you will lose money if you keep betting on picks with negative value 'in the long run'. How long this run it, purely depends on luck in this scenario.

How do you define negative value though. It's been mentioned hundreds of times that value is a subjective factor. Take Aston Villa v Everton at the weekend. One punter might see value in Villa, another in Everton. The margins are so tight, are you trying to tell me that the punter that picked Everton - as many did on PL - will be a losing punter in the long run? And, if I have a winning run of ten correct picks in a row, does that make me or any other member a 'lucky' punter? I'd like to think it's down to skill and judgement. If I lose a bet, I tend to analyse it thoroughly. Actually, I analyse all my selections quite thoroughly. As some could have won even though the team I was backing did not deserve to. You might call that a lucky pick......Even the bets I lose, if there was a reason why the team I backed lost, then I'd look for that reason. So as to improve my game.

[Machine]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Is this value Many years ago I used another board run by a guy named Tony Quinlan(sp) He had a selection method called Tony's Hat Basically it was a random number generator that would randomly predict the scores of all the games in all english divisions. It made a profit :eek So by your definition this random number generator is capable of finding value as it must be backing correct scores at better than the bookies estimate,or is it just luck?

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

How do you define negative value though. It's been mentioned hundreds of times that value is a subjective factor. Take Aston Villa v Everton at the weekend. One punter might see value in Villa' date=' another in Everton. The margins are so tight, are you trying to tell me that the punter that picked Everton - as many did on PL - will be a losing punter in the long run?[/quote'] I did not have time to analyze the Premier League this week-end, but you cannot define the value of a bet based on a single game. Value in itself isn't a subjective factor - every single game has a defined chance of going one way or the other. The art is trying to find this probability as best you can - and this is where the subjectivity comes in; your predicted value.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Is this value Many years ago I used another board run by a guy named Tony Quinlan(sp) He had a selection method called Tony's Hat Basically it was a random number generator that would randomly predict the scores of all the games in all english divisions. It made a profit :eek So by your definition this random number generator is capable of finding value as it must be backing correct scores at better than the bookies estimate,or is it just luck?

It is luck. Bookies tend to run books with 80-95% payback. This means that if you pick every single scoreline in a game, you will lose money no matter what. Obvious, yes? On the same note, if you randomly pick one scoreline, you will end up losing money on the long term. It's like that octopus who "predicted" results in the World Cup. He may have shown a good profit then, but I guarantee if you follow him long enough you will lose your money. ..unless he's psychic, and I don't believe in psychics :unsure

[Machine]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

It is luck. Bookies tend to run books with 80-95% payback. This means that if you pick every single scoreline in a game, you will lose money no matter what. Obvious, yes?

Obvious no, as it made money

On the same note, if you randomly pick one scoreline, you will end up losing money on the long term.

Not if you pick enough winners

It's like that octopus who "predicted" results in the World Cup. He may have shown a good profit then' date=' but I guarantee if you follow him long enough you will lose your money.[/quote'] The same can be said of a "value" punter if his estimations are wrong. The problem I have is if someone uses a rating system it can be analysed but with a value punter its smoke and mirrors,ifs and buts,in the long runs. Its all conjecture.

[trips]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) There are a lot of punters who know the only way to beat the bookies is to find value. the problem is in most cases it boils down to how good you are at evaluating the true chances of your selection winning,thats all there is to it, a lot of the time i find its easier to judge when a selection is not a value bet,this cuts down the bad bets which are the ruin for most punters eg.you look through the form of a particular race and decide anyone of 4 horses is capable of winning,the horse you fancy the most is 5/2, a lot of punters will still back the horse as they believe it will win, thats not getting value . leave the race alone and save your money for a race when you narrow the field down to 2 or 3 horses and you are getting 5/2, thats value betting.