Tennis > 10-16 May

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May The line is 18.5 games at Bet365....have to take it. Nadal vs Almagro OVER 18.5 games @ 10/11(Bet365 : 5/10) Weather seems OK for tomorrow...some rain tonight maybe but clear on Saturday.Rafa owns Almagro in fairness....5-0 h2h, 3-0 on clay and relatively comfortable wins....6-1 6-1 6-1 in 08, 7-6 6-3 in 06 and 6-1 7-5 in 04. Even last year in Paris on hard-court Almagro had Rafa and missed numerous match points before losing in 3 sets. That was the first set he's ever won against Nadal. But I think he has a shot at making this match competitive.....it's dangerous to look at form when talking about Almagro as he can be a totally different player on any given day but he's been very good so far in Madrid beating Troicki, Soderling, Monaco and Melzer all in 2 sets.....his serve and groundstrokes are getting some pop in these conditions and he's firing winners. He has losses to Tsonga x2, Ljubicic and Cilic on clay in recent weeks which shows his inconsistency but just need a good fight from him tomorrow. Nadal obviously the best on clay by a mile....but I tihnk his form is not as great at it was in Monte Carlo....the faster the conditions the more chances his oppnents willl have.He killed Monfils today but Monfils had no gameplan and looped alot of balls back into mid-court...clearly not sharp enough for this test. I think Nadal will win it in 2 and as I said I wouldn't be shocked if Nadal crushed him tomorrow but I think the line is slightly low at 18.5 and will take it with small stake. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I think Venus should crush Peer aswell but don't think there's any value in the unders or 2-0 set betting considering she can be inconsistent on clay. Just can't see Peer hurting her if she's on.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May This Ferrer is damn good.....Federer up next for him which should be interesting. Should he finish Murray of course.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

The line is 18.5 games at Bet365....have to take it. Nadal vs Almagro OVER 18.5 games @ 10/11(Bet365 : 5/10) Weather seems OK for tomorrow...some rain tonight maybe but clear on Saturday.Rafa owns Almagro in fairness....5-0 h2h, 3-0 on clay and relatively comfortable wins....6-1 6-1 6-1 in 08, 7-6 6-3 in 06 and 6-1 7-5 in 04. Even last year in Paris on hard-court Almagro had Rafa and missed numerous match points before losing in 3 sets. That was the first set he's ever won against Nadal. But I think he has a shot at making this match competitive.....it's dangerous to look at form when talking about Almagro as he can be a totally different player on any given day but he's been very good so far in Madrid beating Troicki, Soderling, Monaco and Melzer all in 2 sets.....his serve and groundstrokes are getting some pop in these conditions and he's firing winners. He has losses to Tsonga x2, Ljubicic and Cilic on clay in recent weeks which shows his inconsistency but just need a good fight from him tomorrow. Nadal obviously the best on clay by a mile....but I tihnk his form is not as great at it was in Monte Carlo....the faster the conditions the more chances his oppnents willl have.He killed Monfils today but Monfils had no gameplan and looped alot of balls back into mid-court...clearly not sharp enough for this test. I think Nadal will win it in 2 and as I said I wouldn't be shocked if Nadal crushed him tomorrow but I think the line is slightly low at 18.5 and will take it with small stake. GL!

I like your thinking mate but I can tell in your write-up that you have doubts. My fears with Almagro are simple - he very rarely beats players ranked above him (Soderling his last one for a while), he's extremely temperamental and Nadal will annoy him. He'll keep getting his shots back and Almagro will pop. I've seen it time and time again with him. Will he play as well as he did today (he was outstanding)? I'm not sure. Will his head go down if he falls behind? Quite possibly. Last time he played Nadal he threw away three match points on his serve. That's going to play on Almagro's mind. It's also Almagro's first major semi-final. I haven't done any substantial research but I'd be tempted by the unders. Nadal is kind of player who winds Almagro up and watches him go. Almagro will need to serve really well if he's to stand a chance. I hope I'm wrong, because I can't see the price on the unders being good enough to go for, and I want you to get the win!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May That's why it's small stakes my friend.......;)......do think it should be 19.5 or 20.5 here. After backing Nadal on the unders a few times over recent weeks it's clear it's getting tougher for him to cover it. I had him versus Hanescu a few weeks back and I think it covered by 1 game but already signs of a drop in intensity since Monte Carlo. I don't think Rafa is in the shape to keep that really top level over a number of weeks anymore..his 70% will still beat most(probably all on clay) but will go for it anyway. Then I had him against Dolgopolov and he didn't cover it. My gut says Nadal in 2...something like a tight set(6-4,7-5, 7-6)and comfortable second. If he crushes him, Almagro goes into the black book with Lopez and others.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rafael Nadal v Nicolas Almagro
Selection	Uner 19.5 games
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Happy getting 19.5 on this. This one is all in the head, and Almagro must remember the last meeting where he spurned a lot of match points (had 40-0 serving for match and think he had 5 or 6 match points). Back then Nadal was playing awfuly and in no shape to play, but still got the job done. Now on clay, big match for Almagro in front of home crowd, I wouldn't want to be on him. Almagro has played brilliantly so far this week, but against Nadal on the main court at home is a whole different game. Nadal has looked OK this week, don't think he's played too well yet but hasn't had any problems. 6-4 6-3 does it for me and I can't see this being any closer.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

That's why it's small stakes my friend.......;)......do think it should be 19.5 or 20.5 here. After backing Nadal on the unders a few times over recent weeks it's clear it's getting tougher for him to cover it. I had him versus Hanescu a few weeks back and I think it covered by 1 game but already signs of a drop in intensity since Monte Carlo. I don't think Rafa is in the shape to keep that really top level over a number of weeks anymore..his 70% will still beat most(probably all on clay) but will go for it anyway. Then I had him against Dolgopolov and he didn't cover it. My gut says Nadal in 2...something like a tight set(6-4,7-5, 7-6)and comfortable second. If he crushes him, Almagro goes into the black book with Lopez and others.

Well I hope Nicky keeps it tight for you. If he plays like he did today, he's got a chance for sure. I suspect I'll stay clear of it either way. Almagro's a play I like to second guess, but I'll give that game of Russian Roulette a miss tomorrow! Grr, Murray breaks back against Ferrer. I hope it's not an opportunity lost for my wallet.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Murray playing well here. Very lucky point from Ferrer at 15-30.This would be a hell of a scalp for Murray if he wins this.

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May i disagree that murray is playing well actually murray is awfull and lazy i dont know from where gooner concluded that murray is performing well, coz i watch the game Murrau is only @his 30% potential tonight, if that one is enough to beat ferrer? i dont know, maybe yes, maybe no

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May murray was all the way lazy, insufficient, and loser, another awfull performance by murray, no matter the final result, coz they are still playing if murray scores a victory here after so bad performance, ok, tennis is tennis the fact however, is that ferrer is cruising against absolutely pathetic murray, the scotish never realised the circumstances of the match, and he is just returning the ball to this hell clay courter ferrer impossible to win like these tactics, ferrer is a hell player on this surface

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May ok, murray is finished his game is so lazy that drives me to the conclusion that he is fed up of playing tennis there is such probability Murray is out of tennis perhaps, because he is too intelligent person tennis, ans sports in general are for mugz, not for intelligent people, lets see guys, murray is "fed up" situation or not?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Great performance by Ferrer, although I missed my prediction :( (6-4 6-4 to 7-5 6-3 - just bragging ;]). I am not willing to predict Almagro - Nadal, but the question I am going to ask is - can Ferrer beat Federer tmr? I mean, if we get the standard +3.5 handicap, there is no value in that obv. But I can see Ferrer breaking Fed a couple of times, he is in brilliant form atm. But Fed is on the rise after some crappy performances....hm...tough to call, but I reckon there might be some value in Ferrer win, right?

[dave5perth]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May have to disagree, thought Murray played well. I have not watched tennis for a while and have never seen Ferrer before in action, but what I will say after watching this match is I will be backing him against federer if he is the outsider of the two. His desire to win this match against Murray and the effort on every point was amazing. These boys are super fit, will need to have a look at Nadal to see if he is back to his old self.

[AndrewMurray]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

have to disagree' date=' thought Murray played well. I have not watched tennis for a while and have never seen Ferrer before in action, but what I will say after watching this match is I will be backing him against federer if he is the outsider of the two. His desire to win this match against Murray and the effort on every point was amazing. These boys are super fit, will need to have a look at Nadal to see if he is back to his old self.[/quote'] is because you never watched murray today he was ugly, lazy and bored cheers:tongue2

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

is because you never watched murray today he was ugly, lazy and bored cheers:tongue2

You are so full of shit as usual. When Murray wins his first Grand Slam in Wimbledon or US Open I wonder what you're gonna be writing then. Whatever you have written about Murray now you can take back quickly since you are so full of shit! Tonight should serve as a reminder why Ferrer was ranked no.4 not to long ago!

[dave5perth]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Yes I was watching Murray, I only started watching after the first set. When ferrer was two games up in the 2nd set I just put a tenner on Murray at 10/1 as I assumed with not seeing this boy before Murray would break back and get there. Murray definately put in the effort and was playing well enough, but Ferrer just would not give up on any shot and was not making silly mistakes to let Murray back in. I have just checked the betting on this, Federer is 2nd fav with Ferrer 10/1 so obviously he will be the outsider of the two in the semi. After watching him tonight I will be backing him, even though Federer is the best tennis player ever. This surface may suit Ferrer more than Federer I dont know as I havent been watching earlier matches, but what I seen of the boy tonight he will get my money in the semi being the outsider.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

is because you never watched murray today he was ugly, lazy and bored cheers:tongue2

You are the only one who is ugly lazy and bored

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May A bit harsh on Murray there. Ferrer is, along with Nadal, probably the form man on clay this season and would have taken alot of beating no matter who he was playing.

[dave5perth]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I will need to get a few opinions from the posters who have been watching the tennis, before I maybe jump in to quickly. As I stated above my intention was to put a few bob on Ferrer against Federer after watching him against Murray, I understand Federer is a step up from Murray but did feel Ferrer played a really solid game last night and was worth taking a chance on at 7/4. The price on Federer has shortened from 1/2 to 2/5 in some places, so Im assuming Federer must be playing very well on the clay for him to shorten in a few hours and the fact that Ferrer I thought played exceptional last night.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Federer - Ferrer h2h 9-0 says it all. If Ferrer is to win his first over the swiss after losing 9 on hard and clay through the years I guess Ferrer needs to win games and it makes a good bet of over 20.5 or something. I can't see this match going to less then 23 games as 3 sets are likely. Gulbis won a set, Becker took him to tie-break and Ferrer will get chances to.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Sport	Tennis
Event	Yong-Kyu Lim v Woong-Sun Jun
Selection	Lim
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 2.00
Reasoning	Lim looks much better this tournament. He's been playing extremely well here winning every match 2-0. First he took out israeli Noam Okun 6:1 6:2 and he continued that way taking out japanese Takao Suzuki just as easy 6:1 6:3 and then winning almost as easy over the unknown canadian Duclos. Lim is a wildcard and so is his opponent. Both are South Korean and the tournament is Challenger Busan in South Korea. Jun have been the opposite to Lim winning every match 2-1 and losing the first set every match. Jun have won over japanese Ito then austrian Alexander Peya who is more of a doubles player then singles and then he won over australian Rameez Junaid. Two wildcards having a really good tournament and logic says Lim wins.

WIN 6-4 6-3 to Lim, great start on the day. To bad Murray had no chance vs Ferrer so I had to put a single on Lim.

[burf]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Murray just served badly. He was at 50% first serves in, whereas Ferrer was at 86% - this was the difference IMO. Murray was also only winning 38% of points on his second serve - not good enough. His second serve is found out even more on clay than other surfaces. If Murray could have got say, 65% first serves in he would have at least taken it to 3 sets and perhaps won. PS. If Federer serves well he will beat Ferrer quite easily.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Andrew Murray, Murray was playing well at that point....from 5-2 to 5-5...some aggressive stuff. Ferrer was just too consistent but I think Murray can improve on clay. As for Federer, no bet for me. He lost to Montanes last week so Ferrer is surely not without chance. But the match is 100% on Federer's racquet IMO. I think it will be tight.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Two for me today... Madrid - Nicolas Almagro vs Rafael Nadal Under 19 games AH at 2.050 (Pinnacle) I said yesterday that I couldn't see the price being good enough on the unders, but I was wrong. I feel this is a tremendous price on the line going under. 19 games is quite generous in itself when you consider it's Nadal. Yes, conditions in Madrid are a bit quicker but he's a horrendous match-up for Almagro. He leads the H2H 5-0 and there will be mental scars from their last meeting when Almagro was 40-0 up when serving for the match in Paris. Almagro is a shot-maker. If those shots come back, then he loses it. I've lost count of the number of times Almagro goes pop against guys who get the ball back. Nadal's one of the best returners in the game and he's got the pace to hunt down Almagro's shots. Nadal took Monfils apart yesterday after two tough matches. He's back in the zone. This is Almagro's first main semi final, he's on Manolo Santana and he's up against a guy who's got his number. I think Nadal can take this something like 6-3 6-3, which would cover the line. Wasn't going to take this originally, but the line and price is too generous. Bet strength: 4/10 Madrid - Roger Federer vs David Ferrer Under 22.5 games AH at 1.943 I think tonight is the night when Ferrer's run comes to an end and Federer sends out a statement of intent. Federer leads the H2H 10-0 and has beaten Ferrer, when he was in his pomp, on clay before. The reason why he does so well against Ferrer is because he mixes the game up. He can draw Ferrer into the net (not his strong point), he serves and volleys and he can push the ball deep. It's a bit like when Federer plays Soderling, he takes Ferrer out of his comfort zone. Ferrer's on a great run but it'll be in his mind that he's been cuffed ten times by Federer. The court is a little bit quicker and that'll aid Federer more. Ferrer's not got the power of Ernests Gulbis to hit through Federer. I think the Swiss wants to make a statement before the French Open and beating Ferrer convincingly would do that. He certainly has the ability to do so. Under 22.5 games would cover one tight set and if Federer gets ahead he could storm clear. You always get chances on Ferrer's serve, and Federer's the sort of player who can take them. I reckon the Swiss will put on a show tonight and get the job done to cover the line. Bet strength: 4/10 Good luck :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Think it's gonna be tight Atko.....if it's a two setter I'd expect around 21 games at least which would cover it.I'm rooting for you though but not on the Almagro one.......:ok Also have to say how much better it is to have more people contributing to the thread....more opinions the better I think and it can make a difference.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May

Think it's gonna be tight Atko.....if it's a two setter I'd expect around 21 games at least which would cover it.I'm rooting for you though but not on the Almagro one.......:ok Also have to say how much better it is to have more people contributing to the thread....more opinions the better I think and it can make a difference.

Couldn't agree more that it's good that we've got more people participating, you can never have enough great tennis minds. At least one of us will be celebrating on the Almagro match ;)

[Profitinho]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May I placed bet on S. Peer with +4.5 games against W. Williams..2.00 at live betting... Guys what do you think? Is W. Williams so better??

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Venus won first set 6-3......gonna be tough for Peer now mate. Only turned it on but Venus hit some big serves and good net approaches.

[marron]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Tight matches today. I too think Federer will be eager to send out a message of intent ahead of the French Open and win today in 2 sets but the form of Ferrer is enough to put me off. Too close to call in the overs/unders and game handicaps. Think Nadal will do it in 2 sets too but, for me, the prices/lines are tempting enough to get involved. Day off for me today betting-wise in the tennis then - good luck to those who do get inolved!

[Striker]

Re: Tennis > 10-16 May Nadal looks a safe "money buying" bet at 1.08 to beat Almagro