Tennis - 12-18 April

[Atko]

In here gents and ladies - highlight of the week is the Monte Carlo Masters :ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Melzer to beat PH Mathieu @ 1.61 (Betfair:10/10, WHill offer 8/15) Don't usually like odds this small but seems like good odds on a player playing well this year versus one returning from injury and still not at his best. Melzer leads H2H 2-1 with both Melzer wins coming on clay....he's also shown good form this year with 2 semi's and a quarter final on hard court mainly losing to top players in recent months i.e Cilic, Youzhny, Roddick and Verdasco. He's a reasonable clay court player...definitely not his best surface and is 0-4 in Monte Carlo. Mathieu similarly has a reasonable clay record in his career and hasn't done well in Monte Carlo (3-8 record). Conditions can be slow and favour solid players....not really how you'd describe either of these. But PHM is only returning from a few months out...and lost to Oscar Hernandez in 2 sets last week in Casablanca which shows the level he is at right now. Melzer looks in better form and shape coming into this one...his first match in clay for a while but hoping he comes through this. GL!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Melzer to beat PH Mathieu @ 1.61 (Betfair:10/10' date= WHill offer 8/15) Don't usually like odds this small but seems like good odds on a player playing well this year versus one returning from injury and still not at his best. Melzer leads H2H 2-1 with both Melzer wins coming on clay....he's also shown good form this year with 2 semi's and a quarter final on hard court mainly losing to top players in recent months i.e Cilic, Youzhny, Roddick and Verdasco. He's a reasonable clay court player...definitely not his best surface and is 0-4 in Monte Carlo. Mathieu similarly has a reasonable clay record in his career and hasn't done well in Monte Carlo (3-8 record). Conditions can be slow and favour solid players....not really how you'd describe either of these. But PHM is only returning from a few months out...and lost to Oscar Hernandez in 2 sets last week in Casablanca which shows the level he is at right now. Melzer looks in better form and shape coming into this one...his first match in clay for a while but hoping he comes through this. GL!

I read somewhere this week - think it was L'Equipe - that PHM has said that he reckons he needs another month to get his fitness up. Seems a good enough reason to go against him. I'd follow you on this one but the outright price is too short for me, so I'll wait until the handicap prices are out to make my move. Perhaps a 2-0 win could be on the cards. Melzer's playing really well at the moment.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Kohlschreiber to beat Bellucci 2.00 @ bet365 Kohlschreiber has been awful for a while but this one I fancy him to win. Bellucci has'nt been to good either a while and not mutch more to say. Kohlschreiber likes clay and usually plays good in Monte carlo. Bellucci has lost to Kohl already this year. Lopez to beat Berdych 3.50 @ bet365 Lopez has a winning record vs Berdych and clay is not the type of surface he likes. Berdych lost to Fognini last year in first round here and coming from a final in Miami now ranked 15. Hard first round for Berdych but Lopez is better on hard and none of these two have played on clay so far this year. I just think Lopez is a bit overpriced but it's all about Berdych who been doing well on US hardcourts.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Kohlschreiber to beat Bellucci 2.00 @ bet365 Kohlschreiber has been awful for a while but this one I fancy him to win. Bellucci has'nt been to good either a while and not mutch more to say. Kohlschreiber likes clay and usually plays good in Monte carlo. Bellucci has lost to Kohl already this year. Lopez to beat Berdych 3.50 @ bet365 Lopez has a winning record vs Berdych and clay is not the type of surface he likes. Berdych lost to Fognini last year in first round here and coming from a final in Miami now ranked 15. Hard first round for Berdych but Lopez is better on hard and none of these two have played on clay so far this year. I just think Lopez is a bit overpriced but it's all about Berdych who been doing well on US hardcourts.

Nothing really speaks for any of these two as Berdych have played at least one game on clay in DC as he beat O Rochus and Lopez have a bad record with 3 first round loses in Monte c. Bellucci has won a title on clay in Santiago this year and should ofcourse be able to win his match to. Could change my mind and say a B-double. Berdych 2-1 3.75 Bellucci 2-1 3.75 Just a thought but upsets can happen. Kohlschreiber finished among last 8 in his debut 3 years ago and fell to Nadal but Lopez has a bad record and Berdych have been in Monte c semifinals 3 years ago.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Dolgopolov Jr to beat Benneteau 2.20 @ bet365 Dolgo the rising star from ukraine have been in outstanding form on clay and his best surface is clay. He qualified for Monte c as he easily won 2-0 vs M Zverev and S Ventura. In Morocco he won two challengers and lost one final to Jarkko Nieminen. Benneteau have not played any matches on clay this year and he is not a claycourter. Big advantage for Dolgo as he comes well prepared for this tournament. He lost first round in Casablanca just to be able to prepare for the qualifiers in Monto c. Should be another easy one for Dolgopolov. 2-0 3.50

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Monte Carlo - Thomaz Bellucci vs Philipp Kohlschreiber Thomaz Bellucci at 1.80 (Canbet) Tie of the round in my book, and I'm going to side with Bellucci in this one. Yes, Kohlschreiber beat him at the start of the year, but that was in Auckland, a tournament the German loves, and on a hard court, which is not Bellucci's best surface. The Brazilian, however, loves clay. He's by far the better natural on this surface. He's got the armoury - big serve, deep, flat groundstrokes and good movement. Kohlschreiber is a player who has regressed a bit in my eyes. He's got issues on his serve, and I can see Bellucci picking him off in that department. Mentally, the German can be fragile. I don't think he'll like this match-up one bit of clay, and I'm happy to back the Brazilian to take this. Bet strength: 4/10 Monte Carlo - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Philipp Petzschner Under 21.5 games at 1.99 (Pinnacle) This bet hinges on Petzschner's lack of ability on clay. He's not got a great record on the red brick (W4 L11) and he's up against a man who is in decent form and likes this surface a lot more. What also worries me about Petzschner is that this is his first outing on clay this season, while Garcia-Lopez returned to the surface in Casablanca. He lost to Serra but got a good win over Granollers and will be more suited to the conditions here. The value lies with the unders line here, and I expect Garcia-Lopez to be fairly comfortable winner, thus covering the line. Bet strength: 3/10 Monte-Carlo - Marcel Granollers vs Juan Carlos Ferrero Under 20.5 games at 1.98 (Pinnacle) Very similar situation to Garcia-Lopez vs Petzschner. There's a big gulf in class here between the two players. Granollers almost went out yesterday in qualifying to Ballaraet and he often struggles against good clay courters (see last week's loss to Garcia-Lopez, 6-3 6-2). Ferrero was in stunning form on the clay in South America and after a bit of rest after Miami, I expect him to be razor-sharp here. Once again, the value lies with the unders line, so I'm willing to back that. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Backing one from Charleston WTA tournament........ Kerber to beat Riske 2-0 @ 4/6 (Paddy Power : 10/10) Kerber plays on another level to Alison Riske.Young American plays on the ITF circuit and has limited results...mainly good on hard surface. This year on clay she's lost to Dominguez-Lino,Sophie Ferguson and Abigail Spears all in straights...she has very limited experience on the surface.Kerber typically has better results on hard surface aswell(she won 5 matches at AO including beating Rezai before losing to Kuznetsova in 3).But she can also play on clay...reached the Bogota final in February losing to Duque-Marino after beating the likes of Dulko.Difference in class in this match. GL!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April kristina barrois to beat kirsten flipkens at 5-4 bet365 1 point barrois has been in very poor form since the australian open in fairness but it was around this part of the season last year that she played her best tennis and she is still a quality player when she is on form! flipkens started off the year very well but she has been in poor enough form of late (failed to qualify for miami) and was hammered last weel by laura pous tio!! the truth is that she has always struggled on clay throughout her career.....her backhand tends to be really exposed on this surface! both flipkens and barrois have similar enough games but i think barrois is more suited to the clay! she gave azarenka a very tough test at the french open last year! and last weeks defeat in two tight sets to vidagany doesn't seem such a poor effort as vidagany went on to beat clijsters and loose narrowly to errani! it is only a matter of time untill she finds her best form again and i think the price of 5-4 is a generous price considering she is playing a player who is simply not comfortable on clay!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April anyone else tempted by the 7-4 price going about kulikova against safarova???

[christiano]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Sevastova - Arvidsson
Selection	Sevastova
Strength	10/10
Date	12/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.63 (Back)
Reasoning	Arvidsson prefers faster courts and she rarely plays on clay.And when she does she don't have much sucess.Sevastova on the other hand knows how to play on clay courts and she has nice season so far climbing the ranking.She also hammered Arvidsson this year 6:1 6:0 indoors.Sevastova for me in this one.

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Vinci - Rezai
Selection	Vinci
Strength	10/10
Date	12/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.52 (Back)
Reasoning	Vinci is defending title here from last year.So she have lots of points to defend.Rezai is not in great form at the moment and Vinci is more than capable of defeating her.H2H is 1:0 for Vinci played on clay.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

anyone else tempted by the 7-4 price going about kulikova against safarova???

Dunno much about Kulikova on clay mate,only took notice of her when she had that run in Dubai. But Safarova seems worth opposing in every tournament these days...terrible since Paris indoors. Really like her game but no consistency.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April De Bakker to beat Schwank 1.61 Fognini to beat Llodra 1.44 This is all I could come up with for tomorrow. I can't find any upsets :( Is there anyone who got ideas about what match could be an upset tomorrow or is all favorites gonna win? Kubot to beat Troicki 2.25 @ bet365 I looked a bit on this one and Kubot have lost 4 of 5 h2h with Troicki and last time was on hardcourt this year. But what speaks for Kubot is that clay is the mans surface and he improved his play a lot. He was bad in Casablanca vs Starace but I belive he can play better now. Troicki likes hard more but have beaten Kubot in french open first round but Kubot have improved since then. I am also thinking of Kubot 2-1 5.00 as the odds are tempting.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

De Bakker to beat Schwank 1.61 Fognini to beat Llodra 1.44 This is all I could come up with for tomorrow. I can't find any upsets :( Is there anyone who got ideas about what match could be an upset tomorrow or is all favorites gonna win? Kubot to beat Troicki 2.25 @ bet365 I looked a bit on this one and Kubot have lost 4 of 5 h2h with Troicki and last time was on hardcourt this year. But what speaks for Kubot is that clay is the mans surface and he improved his play a lot. He was bad in Casablanca vs Starace but I belive he can play better now. Troicki is better on hard.

Haven't had a proper look at tomorrow yet but surely Horacio Zeballos is too long a price against Tommy Robredo. The Spaniard has had a poor year and hasn't played on clay at all. Only thing that'd put me off Zeballos is that he was in Houston last week, and it's a fair bit of travelling to Monte Carlo. You'll get him on some sort of plus I think. I'll need to think more about it.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Monte Carlo - Thomaz Bellucci vs Philipp Kohlschreiber Thomaz Bellucci at 1.80 (Canbet) Tie of the round in my book, and I'm going to side with Bellucci in this one. Yes, Kohlschreiber beat him at the start of the year, but that was in Auckland, a tournament the German loves, and on a hard court, which is not Bellucci's best surface. The Brazilian, however, loves clay. He's by far the better natural on this surface. He's got the armoury - big serve, deep, flat groundstrokes and good movement. Kohlschreiber is a player who has regressed a bit in my eyes. He's got issues on his serve, and I can see Bellucci picking him off in that department. Mentally, the German can be fragile. I don't think he'll like this match-up one bit of clay, and I'm happy to back the Brazilian to take this. Bet strength: 4/10 Monte Carlo - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Philipp Petzschner Under 21.5 games at 1.99 (Pinnacle) This bet hinges on Petzschner's lack of ability on clay. He's not got a great record on the red brick (W4 L11) and he's up against a man who is in decent form and likes this surface a lot more. What also worries me about Petzschner is that this is his first outing on clay this season, while Garcia-Lopez returned to the surface in Casablanca. He lost to Serra but got a good win over Granollers and will be more suited to the conditions here. The value lies with the unders line here, and I expect Garcia-Lopez to be fairly comfortable winner, thus covering the line. Bet strength: 3/10 Monte-Carlo - Marcel Granollers vs Juan Carlos Ferrero Under 20.5 games at 1.98 (Pinnacle) Very similar situation to Garcia-Lopez vs Petzschner. There's a big gulf in class here between the two players. Granollers almost went out yesterday in qualifying to Ballaraet and he often struggles against good clay courters (see last week's loss to Garcia-Lopez, 6-3 6-2). Ferrero was in stunning form on the clay in South America and after a bit of rest after Miami, I expect him to be razor-sharp here. Once again, the value lies with the unders line, so I'm willing to back that. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :ok

Kohlschreiber d. Bellucci 2-6 6-3 7-6 - LOSS :@ Petzschner d. Garcia-Lopez 6-3 2-6 6-2 - LOSS :@ Ferrero d. Granollers 6-0 6-3 - WIN :ok Not the best of days. Bellucci and Kohlschreiber both broke each other so many times. Tie-break in the end went to the more experienced player. At least Ferrero did the business - boy, was he good today.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Kohlschreiber d. Bellucci 2-6 6-3 7-6 - LOSS :@ Petzschner d. Garcia-Lopez 6-3 2-6 6-2 - LOSS :@ Ferrero d. Granollers 6-0 6-3 - WIN :ok Not the best of days. Bellucci and Kohlschreiber both broke each other so many times. Tie-break in the end went to the more experienced player. At least Ferrero did the business - boy, was he good today.

Petzschner was the upset of the day. I wish you had gone with me on Kohlschreiber. Seems like the upsets are hard to come by in first round. The price on Kohl was 6 after first set. Real nice inplay match. I like when players turn matches as it pays so good.

[gregor1985]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Double but hopefully not trouble Lucie Safarova (1.51) to beat Regina Kulikova- Kulikova from Betfair stats hasn't seem to have played a clay court match since her debut in 2005 where as Safarova hasn't played one this year but has taken the like of Williams and Safina to 3 last summer. Safina hasn't played too badly on her build up to Barcelona so I'm happy to include her. AND Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (1.41) to beat Andrea Petkovic I can just see Sanchez getting to the later rounds as she's done so often before. More often than not she'll be the better of the 2. Together I've got them at just better than evens so I'm taking a small punt at them. :hope

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Petzschner was the upset of the day. I wish you had gone with me on Kohlschreiber. Seems like the upsets are hard to come by in first round. The price on Kohl was 6 after first set. Real nice inplay match. I like when players turn matches as it pays so good.

Kohlschreiber and Bellucci could've gone either way to be honest. Good call on the in-play though. Both players have got mental demons.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Berdych is available at a stand-out price of 8/13 at Boyles to beat Gasquet tomorrow. Not such a nice price at the bookies I use but I would have him priced around 1.4-1.5 so will take him. Berdych x Verdasco Double @ 17/20(PaddyPower : 8/10) Price is marginally higher I think, my maths is poor though....:tongue2 Berdych is playing better than Gasquet right now.The man is on fire....1/4 final in IW and final in Miami losing to Nadal and Roddick respectively. First match on clay today since beating Rochus in Davis Cup in March...and he beat Lopez 6-2 6-1. Lopez is not a top clay-courter but still a solid effort from Berdych. Served well for the most part and confidence looks high. Has a semi at Monte Carlo in 2007 and reasonable clay results otherwise.Gasquet has also done well at Monte Carlo in the past but he's not the same player right now IMO. Has losses to Almagro, Hanescu and Chela on clay this year and a few poor hard court losses. Struggled past Gimeno-Traver today in 3 sets, the spaniard made many errors to help Gasquet along and wasn't solid enough from the baseline to hang with him.Berdych should be, and has alot of confidence right now. Verdasco takes on Benneteau.Verdasco has a 2-5 record at Monte Carlo but reached the 1/4 final last year(only really stepped up to top level in 2009)...beating Ferrer and Kohlschreiber before losing to Djokovic in 3. Only concern here is that it's Verdasco's first match on clay since Acapulco in February where he lost to Monaco. He is a class above Benneteau. maybe 2 classes above on clay I think.Benneteau is in average form in recent weeks losing to Stakhovsky and Ancic...struggled past Dolgopolov today in what was a pretty poor match quality wise....Dolgopolov broke down in the 3rd set in all honesty. Verdasco should take this one. GL!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Not really alot else standing out tomorrow. Maybe Baghdatis as an underdog against Montanes. Montanes is a solid clay court player, had a good year last year on dirt but the price alone makes me wanna take Baghy. Even though Baghy is not really a clay-courter, he can play on the stuff. Shvedova as a dog against Medina-Garrigues looks promising aswell. Garrigues is struggling a bit recently and looked pretty average when I watched her against Errani a few days ago losing in 2. Very passive and confidence looks shaky. Shvedova is a reasonable clay court player and could have chances here. Haven't looked deep into any of these yet so will check them out later.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Kerber to beat Riske 2-0 @ 4/6 (Paddy Power : 10/10)

WIN.........:ok

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Viktor Troicki v Lukasz Kubot
Selection	Lukasz Kubot
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 2.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Kubot is really awkward to play, and these guys played in Doha at the start of the year with Troicki coming through 7-6 in third. Think the clay will help Kubot a bit, both can play on clay but think both would like it quicker. Kubot had a shocker last week 6-1 6-0 against Starace, not sure what happened but hope he is fit for this. Think this should be a close game, and happy to take this price.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nicolas Almagro v Jo Wilfreid Tsonga
Selection	Nicolas Almagro
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betclic @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Tough game to price up, but I'm willing to go for the natural clay courter. Tsonga can power his way through players on clay, but on other days he can look inept. Almagro pushed him really hard in Australia going 9-7 in the fifth, which suggests the match up is good for Almagro. On clay, he should be able to work Tsonga around a lot, and stop Tsonga from dominating the mid court. Like I said tough to price up, but I'd make almagro more like 1.66.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marin Cilic v Igor Andreev
Selection	Igor Andreev
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Not really a fan of Cilic, particularly on clay. Results last very were pretty average, and don't think he's anywhere near as effective on this surface as he is on hard. Form the past 6 weeks hasn't been great, and first match up against Andreev is rough. Andreev really seems to have gone backwards the past 12-18 months, but he's a natural on clay and has a big game. He's already had a match which should help, and if he plays decent he'll cause Cilic problems.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Jurgen Melzer v Paul Henri Mathieu
Selection	Jurgen Melzer
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.55 (Back)
Reasoning	Watched Mathieu last week and he looked nowhere near ready. His footwork was very poor and he wasn't hitting well. Add a bit of home crowd pressure and can't see him playing well. Melzer has shown some good form this year, and he should be a comfortable winner here.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez - Andrea Petkovic
Selection	Petkovic
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.37 (Back)
Reasoning	Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez has already played the first tournament on clay in 2010 while Andrea Petkovic will play just her first game on clay as she had to pull out of Marbella because of hay fever. Also have to mentionate that Martinez Sanchez will play at home, the second reason for why she is rated as clear favourite with these odds. Well, there are no doubts that to play at home can always be an advantage and playing just your first game on a new surface can not beone of the best quality but still these two aspects do not cover the difference in class between these two players which are so closed to each other's level. Andrea Petkovic did improved a lot in 2010 and have to mentionate that her level of tennis looked a litter bit even higher than Martinez's ones, don't try to overrate the german player but have to confirm that Petkovic possess some real great talent. Sanchez is classified on a better rating position at the moment and obviously that she will be favourite in this one but that by any means can not deny Petkovic's real level. All in all, Andrea Petkovic can play great tennis certain on clay,she had to pull out of Marbella because of hay fever bu she had a good period of preparation for Barcelona, so in normal conditions she should be ready for this one. Good Luck!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Viktor Troicki v Lukasz Kubot
Selection	Lukasz Kubot
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 2.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Kubot is really awkward to play, and these guys played in Doha at the start of the year with Troicki coming through 7-6 in third. Think the clay will help Kubot a bit, both can play on clay but think both would like it quicker. Kubot had a shocker last week 6-1 6-0 against Starace, not sure what happened but hope he is fit for this. Think this should be a close game, and happy to take this price.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nicolas Almagro v Jo Wilfreid Tsonga
Selection	Nicolas Almagro
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betclic @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Tough game to price up, but I'm willing to go for the natural clay courter. Tsonga can power his way through players on clay, but on other days he can look inept. Almagro pushed him really hard in Australia going 9-7 in the fifth, which suggests the match up is good for Almagro. On clay, he should be able to work Tsonga around a lot, and stop Tsonga from dominating the mid court. Like I said tough to price up, but I'd make almagro more like 1.66.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marin Cilic v Igor Andreev
Selection	Igor Andreev
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Not really a fan of Cilic, particularly on clay. Results last very were pretty average, and don't think he's anywhere near as effective on this surface as he is on hard. Form the past 6 weeks hasn't been great, and first match up against Andreev is rough. Andreev really seems to have gone backwards the past 12-18 months, but he's a natural on clay and has a big game. He's already had a match which should help, and if he plays decent he'll cause Cilic problems.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Jurgen Melzer v Paul Henri Mathieu
Selection	Jurgen Melzer
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.55 (Back)
Reasoning	Watched Mathieu last week and he looked nowhere near ready. His footwork was very poor and he wasn't hitting well. Add a bit of home crowd pressure and can't see him playing well. Melzer has shown some good form this year, and he should be a comfortable winner here.

I like these picks but one I also like is Fognini to beat Llodra. If Fognini shows his skills on clay Llodra has no answer because he does his best on indoor hard. Fog is a typical clay specialist and he really wants to win this after 2 first round exits on clay vs hard opposition in Andreev and Verdasco. He won his first match here against Berdych last year. Can't see Llodra stopping Italy because he has not even played any match on clay yet. I can't even see Llodra taking a set. Fognini is world class on clay and takes out any hardcourter on clay and he must fancy his chances to win as he did beat both Berdych and Cilic last year in Monte c. Fognini 1.50 @ bet365

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Schwank to beat De Bakker 2.37 @ bet365 Schwank really feels like overpriced. Lots of play on clay can be said of Schwank this year and De Bakker have'nt played any match on clay apart from the qualifying to this where he took out two easy players in totally out of form veteran A Martin and T Gabashvili who is alien to anything but hard. Clay is what De Bakker prefers but Schwank should be quite up for this one and with so many matches on clay in South America I can't see him losing this. De Bakker have only been on hardcourts so far.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Melzer @ 1.53 5dimes Melzer leads 2-1 in h2h, but 2-0 on clay. Left handed austrian is slowly catching his form, Verdasco need to play 3rd set to beat him in Miami, he cruised in IW untill he met Roddick... PHM on the other hand in very bad form. Latest defeat against Oscar Hernandez revealed his true state of form and i doubt he can change that in such short time. Melzer is a big favourite today i see him more as a 1.35-1.40 favourite, than 1.50ish. Good luck. Montanes @ 1.80 Betfair Unlike Montanes, Cypriot plays very rarely on clay and this surface doesn't suit him at all. Montanes had few decent results lately, he's not a top class player in any case but his style is way more suitable to clay. Baghdatis is a very talented player who still didn't reached his best but on this surface i doubt he ever will. Andreev @ 2.94 Betfair I like Andreev here. Čilić can't find the rhytm after AO and he'll definetly struggle here agains specialised claycourter Andreev. My only concern is the fact that both of them are very unreliable but odds far above my expectations. 2.3-2.4 would be much more closer to reality.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Monte-Carlo - Double Jurgen Melzer (vs Mathieu) x Florent Serra (vs Robert) at 2.12 (Canbet) The handicap price on Melzer -3 games is getting spanked so there's no value in taking it at all. I can't really add more than what's been said about the Melzer-Mathieu match. Mathieu is still pretty unfit at the moment, and will take some time to get back into his stride. He's lost to Melzer twice on clay before and has a losing record against lefties (W23 L31). Melzer's playing the best tennis of his career at the moment. Really good hitting from either flank. Both men's first game on clay but Melzer should prevail. As for Serra-Robert, they met last week in Casablanca. Serra won fairly comfortably in the end and is playing some good tennis too. He seems more capable than Robert to be able to control the match, and has the faster, more accurate strokes. Robert can struggle on his serve, and I reckon Serra can take advantage of that once more here. Bet strength: 4/10 Monte-Carlo - Tommy Robredo vs Horacio Zeballos Horacio Zeballos +4 games AH at 1.99 (Pinnacle) Zeballos is massively under-priced here. The only negative I can find for Zeballos is that he's had to travel from Houston, where he played on Saturday. Even still, he's not come over here just to make up the numbers. Robredo's having a rotten season. He's been cracking under pressure, shown by his last defeat to Benjamin Becker, and in the two games he's played against lefties, he's lost both this year, to Melzer and Zverev. What worries me about Robredo is the fact that this is his first game on clay this year. Zeballos is used to the surface, and has posted some decent results, getting to the semis last week. In addition, Robredo's backhand has been poor recently, and Zeballos will naturally chip away at that. He also beat Gonzalez last week in Houston, which shows he is not fazed by playing bigger-named players. Very much worth a play. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Monte-Carlo - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Nicolas Almagro Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.08 (Canbet) I've been giving this match a lot of thought and I've eventually decided to go with the Frenchman here. Almagro is a player I like and he's pretty effective on clay, but I'm seeing plenty of mental demons in the Spaniard already. He should have lost to Simon Greul yesterday. The German served for the match and had him on the ropes. Almagro's first-serve percentage was way down at 46%, and if he plays like that against Tsonga, he'll be beaten. Tsonga's weakest surface is probably clay but that doesn't mean he can't act on the surface. He's got the big serve and the speed to get round the court, and he's probably the better man when put under pressure. He beat Almagro in an epic in Australia earlier this year, but Almagro bottled it. Mentally, he's nowhere near as strong as the Top 10 players. I think the price is generous on Tsonga, who has never played here before but certainly has the ability to go far. Almagro is a loose cannon when he's under the cosh. I believe Tsonga can take this. Bet strength: 3/10

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Almagro @ 1.85 Betclic JWT is not too familiar with this surface, and experienced and solid claycourter Almagro should be too much for him today. Almagro also struggled yesterday against Greul but won in the end, while JWT played his last match on clay in last years DC match vs Holland. All in all, i wouldn't give more than 1.70 on Almagro here so it's a good bet. Good luck.

[erwin2]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April am i the only retard to have picked dulko??? that stupid ''*!** in the 3rd was 2 breaks up 3-0 40-15 on her serve and lost the match, how the hell is that possible its ******* disgusting :puke