Tennis - 12-18 April

[christiano]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Czink - Krajicek
Selection	Krajicek (Lay)
Strength	10/10
Date	13/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	>Betfair @ 2.92 (Lay)
Reasoning	Czink maybe in not that great form but she was in QF here last year and she has lots of points to defend.She is playing Krajicek who is out of form lately and barely playes on clay courts.Czink should take this one imo.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Close matches but mostly smelly ass today:sad

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Monte-Carlo - Double Jurgen Melzer (vs Mathieu) x Florent Serra (vs Robert) at 2.12 (Canbet) The handicap price on Melzer -3 games is getting spanked so there's no value in taking it at all. I can't really add more than what's been said about the Melzer-Mathieu match. Mathieu is still pretty unfit at the moment, and will take some time to get back into his stride. He's lost to Melzer twice on clay before and has a losing record against lefties (W23 L31). Melzer's playing the best tennis of his career at the moment. Really good hitting from either flank. Both men's first game on clay but Melzer should prevail. As for Serra-Robert, they met last week in Casablanca. Serra won fairly comfortably in the end and is playing some good tennis too. He seems more capable than Robert to be able to control the match, and has the faster, more accurate strokes. Robert can struggle on his serve, and I reckon Serra can take advantage of that once more here. Bet strength: 4/10 Monte-Carlo - Tommy Robredo vs Horacio Zeballos Horacio Zeballos +4 games AH at 1.99 (Pinnacle) Zeballos is massively under-priced here. The only negative I can find for Zeballos is that he's had to travel from Houston, where he played on Saturday. Even still, he's not come over here just to make up the numbers. Robredo's having a rotten season. He's been cracking under pressure, shown by his last defeat to Benjamin Becker, and in the two games he's played against lefties, he's lost both this year, to Melzer and Zverev. What worries me about Robredo is the fact that this is his first game on clay this year. Zeballos is used to the surface, and has posted some decent results, getting to the semis last week. In addition, Robredo's backhand has been poor recently, and Zeballos will naturally chip away at that. He also beat Gonzalez last week in Houston, which shows he is not fazed by playing bigger-named players. Very much worth a play. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :ok

Monte-Carlo - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Nicolas Almagro Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.08 (Canbet) I've been giving this match a lot of thought and I've eventually decided to go with the Frenchman here. Almagro is a player I like and he's pretty effective on clay, but I'm seeing plenty of mental demons in the Spaniard already. He should have lost to Simon Greul yesterday. The German served for the match and had him on the ropes. Almagro's first-serve percentage was way down at 46%, and if he plays like that against Tsonga, he'll be beaten. Tsonga's weakest surface is probably clay but that doesn't mean he can't act on the surface. He's got the big serve and the speed to get round the court, and he's probably the better man when put under pressure. He beat Almagro in an epic in Australia earlier this year, but Almagro bottled it. Mentally, he's nowhere near as strong as the Top 10 players. I think the price is generous on Tsonga, who has never played here before but certainly has the ability to go far. Almagro is a loose cannon when he's under the cosh. I believe Tsonga can take this. Bet strength: 3/10

Melzer d. Mathieu 6-3 6-2/Serra d. Robert 7-6 3-6 6-4 - WIN :ok Robredo d. Zeballos 6-3 6-3 - LOSS :wall Tsonga d. Almagro 7-6 7-5 - WIN :ok 4.72pt profit for the day. Almagro did exactly what it says on the tin :cheers

[Jenspm]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April @burf: I deleted your post as after-eventing (ie posting bets after the event is over) is frowned upon and against the rules over here. :) @Atko: Nice calls, especially on Tsonga/Almagro! :clap

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Berdych x Verdasco Double @ 17/20 (PaddyPower : 8/10) Melzer to beat PH Mathieu @ 8/13 (Betfair: 10/10, WHill offer 8/15)

WIN WIN.

[gregor1985]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Double but hopefully not trouble Lucie Safarova (1.51) to beat Regina Kulikova- Kulikova from Betfair stats hasn't seem to have played a clay court match since her debut in 2005 where as Safarova hasn't played one this year but has taken the like of Williams and Safina to 3 last summer. Safina hasn't played too badly on her build up to Barcelona so I'm happy to include her. AND Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (1.41) to beat Andrea Petkovic I can just see Sanchez getting to the later rounds as she's done so often before. More often than not she'll be the better of the 2. Together I've got them at just better than evens so I'm taking a small punt at them. :hope

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 6-4 6-4 Lucie Safarova 3-6 6-7(4) Safarovas 56% first serves in for starters isn't great. With 7 doubles you would have hoped it was because she was really going for it but when you see that she only won 39% on her 2nd when it went in you can safely come to the conclusion she struggled big style. 13 break points against her saving 9 is a good percentage but with that many against her you wouldn't expect something as close as 3-6 6-7(4). Kulikova had numerous chances but just couldn't seem to put Safarova away until the place where you really need to hold onto your serve, the tie-break came along. A half decent Safarova would have taken this, but today it wasn't to be :wall

[ShanAce]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April How good was Berdych today? :notworthy Brilliant tennis. I'm putting a few quid on him winning the tournament. Great calls today Atko and Gooner. Goodluck with the huge london derby tomorrow night

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Serra + 5.5 games vs Djokovic 1.72 @ bet365 If Serra can push Soderling and Davydenko to tie break on hard he should have no problems doing the same on clay vs Djoker.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Not a great card tomorrow imo. Definitely want to see prices for Ferrero,Ferrer and Melzer on the handicap. Ferrero should kill Becker but the handicap will probably be too big. Don't think Petsczhner(i hate writing his name) can trouble Melzer on this surface but again depends on the handicap and price. If Gulbis/Wawrinka was on hard I'd take Gulbis but not convinced by Ernests on clay. Saying that I think he can pressure Stan more than Hanescu did.If Gulbis serves well and has any sort of consistency with his groundies this could be an interesting match. Wawrinka gives you chances on his serve but he is a worthy fave after winning Casablanca last week and being more experienced on clay. Will check prices in the morning and see if anything nice stands out.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Andreas Seppi vs. Albert Montanes
Selection	Seppi
Strength	10/10
Date	14/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bwin @ 3.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, I think that Albert Montanes is overrated at the moment by the bookies as he had some nice results in the last period but have to mentionate that most of his success was due to his not so difficult opponents. Montanes is a specific clay-courter player who spend almost all his time on clay and there are no doubts that he will play on his most favourite surface but still we don't have to forget about his real level which is surely not over Andreas Seppi's ones as these odds suggest. From the class point of view Andreas Seppi is surely not under Montanes level if we speak certain on a surface like clay, so the only difference between these two players is the form where Montanes looks better as he had more success recetly than the italian. Speaking about form I have to say that Seppi should not be underrated from this point of view as he has lost only against difficult opponents so far and most of his games have been ended in defeats due to this reason and not beacuse of some problems of his form. On the other hand Montanes as I have mentionated before didn't eliminated at least one really difficult opponent to deserve of being in this position of the favourite in a game like this where should be all the chances for just a clear fight. All in all, both have been impressive last year here at Monte Carlo, it seems that both like this tournament, so I think that we should see some quality tennis but where by any means Montanes should be the favourite with these odds. Good Luck!

[eighteighteight]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Mikhail Youzhny 2.40 v David Nalbandian Monaco Masters Any value in this?

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Gubis vs Wawrinka over 22 @ 1.88 Pinnacle This should be a very close match, potential 3-setter. Wawrinka won Casablanca last week and defeated Hanescu in first round here, latest performances are suggesting that he is in good form. On the other hand, latvian is also playing good lately, he won Delray Beach and played semis in Memphis. That was on hard, but he has all needed characteristics for clay and i can see him making a lots of troubles for Wawa today who might be a bit tired after so many matches lately.

[nkdz]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Berdych vs Verdasco Berdych @ 2.07 10bet Anyone who watched Berdych yesterday will think about this bet. When he's so motivated, confident and determined like yesterday he can win anyone on any surface. Gasquet was helpless on his powerful baseline shots, he served almost perfectly and made extremely low number of mistakes. Dasco also trashed Bennetau and he also looks good here but Czech deserves to be a slight favourite here and he's rated at 2.07. Let me just say that Berdych leads 6-3 h2h, and he won 2 out of 3 their last meetings on clay. Good luck.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Monte-Carlo - Jurgen Melzer vs Philipp Petzschner Jurgen Melzer -4 games AH at 1.840 (Pinnacle) I'm going to call Petzschner "PP", as his name is a nightmare to write at this time of the morning. Mezler is playing exceptionally well at the moment, and is a hard man to beat on all surfaces. I look at PP and I see a man who prefers a much quicker surface. He beat Garcia-Lopez in the last round but the Spaniard was unbelievably poor. He's coming up against a much superior player. Melzer just seems to have plenty of confidence in his game at the moment. He'll be able to deal with PP's big serve and get into rallies. Fairly confident the Austrian will be able to cover the handicap here. Bet strength: 5/10 Monte-Carlo - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Andy Murray Andy Murray -3.5 games AH at 1.855 (Pinnacle) Another long German name, so we'll call him PK. Generous handicap on Murray here. Clay is not his number one surface but he's got a lot to prove here. Taking a wildcard suggests he means business and wants to get a few wins under his belt here. He's up against a man he's beaten in their only previous encounter. PK was fortunate to get past Bellucci in R1, serving abysmally. If he does that against one of the best returners in the world, he'll struggle. Murray has had issues on his serve before but he says he's been practising well on the courts and I expect a fairly big week from him. I think the handicap is entirely coverable, so I'm playing it. Bet strength: 5/10 Monte-Carlo - Double Stanislas Wawrinka (vs Gulbis) x Albert Montanes (vs Seppi) at 1.87 (Boylesports) Afraid I can't see Gulbis giving Wawrinka too many problems on clay. Gulbis is undoubtedly a good player but I don't see him being able to make too many inroads into Wawrinka here. The Swiss is on red-hot form on the clay, having just won Casablanca, and he saw off Hanescu with minimum fuss. Gulbis is perhaps the fresher of the two players but the Swiss will get a lot of balls back into play, and make life difficult for Gulbis. The Latvian can get riled quickly, and if he's not hitting the shots, he gets angry and his game suffers. As for Montanes, the Spaniard is playing the best tennis of his career at the moment. He's very much at home on the clay and has beaten Seppi twice before on it. The Italian likes the surface here too but he's a step down in class for Montanes after he beat Baghdatis. Montanes should have too much for Seppi, who lacks power in his groundstrokes. Bet strength: 4/10 Monte-Carlo - Tommy Robredo vs Viktor Troicki Over 21.5 games AH at 1.862 (Pinnacle) I can see this being a very close match. Robredo is quite rightly favourite but he's been showing signs this year of poor form, and a number of his matches have been tight and gone the distance. Troicki's a scrapper, and has the big serve and groundstrokes to take a few games here. I can see him forcing a long set, which could be enough to guarantee the line gets covered. Robredo hammered him on a hard court last year in Australia but Troicki has improved greatly since then, while Robredo has decreased a little. I see a close match, and the line is definitely worth a play. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Ferrero vs Becker UNDER 18.5 games @ 5/6 (Paddy Power : 7/10) JCF is simply a class above Becker, and on clay he's several classes above him.He's in superb form and looked great throughout the clay swing this year winning in Brazil and Argentina before losing final in Acapulco to Ferrer.He also loves Monte Carlo, winning here in the past. Firstround he looked top class beating Granollers, who has no real weapons to hurt JCF but still a better clay courter than Becker.Becker simply doesn't like clay...9-22 is his career record and his win over young Tomic was his first clay match since 2008. Tomic is a good young talent but simply isn't experienced enough to win a match like that though he had breaks in the first set.Becker's only hope is to have a superb serving day as Ferrero should outplay him on the ground. 6-3 6-3 wins the bet...looks doable to me. GL!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Ferrero vs Becker UNDER 18.5 games @ 5/6 (Paddy Power : 7/10) JCF is simply a class above Becker, and on clay he's several classes above him.He's in superb form and looked great throughout the clay swing this year winning in Brazil and Argentina before losing final in Acapulco to Ferrer.He also loves Monte Carlo, winning here in the past. Firstround he looked top class beating Granollers, who has no real weapons to hurt JCF but still a better clay courter than Becker.Becker simply doesn't like clay...9-22 is his career record and his win over young Tomic was his first clay match since 2008. Tomic is a good young talent but simply isn't experienced enough to win a match like that though he had breaks in the first set.Becker's only hope is to have a superb serving day as Ferrero should outplay him on the ground. 6-3 6-3 wins the bet...looks doable to me. GL!

Agree entirely mate, but for some bizarre reason, Pinny have the line at 19.5 :wall The price is 1.56 - no idea why they can't lower it. JCF was devastating against Granollers. I'd love to follow you but no danger at my quoted odds.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April 6-3 6-4....19 games...LOSS. In control on serve and break chances on nearly every Becker serve but was cruising once he had early breaks in each set. Thats the way it happens sometimes. 3w-1l for the week.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Monte-Carlo - Jurgen Melzer vs Philipp Petzschner Jurgen Melzer -4 games AH at 1.840 (Pinnacle) I'm going to call Petzschner "PP", as his name is a nightmare to write at this time of the morning. Mezler is playing exceptionally well at the moment, and is a hard man to beat on all surfaces. I look at PP and I see a man who prefers a much quicker surface. He beat Garcia-Lopez in the last round but the Spaniard was unbelievably poor. He's coming up against a much superior player. Melzer just seems to have plenty of confidence in his game at the moment. He'll be able to deal with PP's big serve and get into rallies. Fairly confident the Austrian will be able to cover the handicap here. Bet strength: 5/10 Monte-Carlo - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Andy Murray Andy Murray -3.5 games AH at 1.855 (Pinnacle) Another long German name, so we'll call him PK. Generous handicap on Murray here. Clay is not his number one surface but he's got a lot to prove here. Taking a wildcard suggests he means business and wants to get a few wins under his belt here. He's up against a man he's beaten in their only previous encounter. PK was fortunate to get past Bellucci in R1, serving abysmally. If he does that against one of the best returners in the world, he'll struggle. Murray has had issues on his serve before but he says he's been practising well on the courts and I expect a fairly big week from him. I think the handicap is entirely coverable, so I'm playing it. Bet strength: 5/10 Monte-Carlo - Double Stanislas Wawrinka (vs Gulbis) x Albert Montanes (vs Seppi) at 1.87 (Boylesports) Afraid I can't see Gulbis giving Wawrinka too many problems on clay. Gulbis is undoubtedly a good player but I don't see him being able to make too many inroads into Wawrinka here. The Swiss is on red-hot form on the clay, having just won Casablanca, and he saw off Hanescu with minimum fuss. Gulbis is perhaps the fresher of the two players but the Swiss will get a lot of balls back into play, and make life difficult for Gulbis. The Latvian can get riled quickly, and if he's not hitting the shots, he gets angry and his game suffers. As for Montanes, the Spaniard is playing the best tennis of his career at the moment. He's very much at home on the clay and has beaten Seppi twice before on it. The Italian likes the surface here too but he's a step down in class for Montanes after he beat Baghdatis. Montanes should have too much for Seppi, who lacks power in his groundstrokes. Bet strength: 4/10 Monte-Carlo - Tommy Robredo vs Viktor Troicki Over 21.5 games AH at 1.862 (Pinnacle) I can see this being a very close match. Robredo is quite rightly favourite but he's been showing signs this year of poor form, and a number of his matches have been tight and gone the distance. Troicki's a scrapper, and has the big serve and groundstrokes to take a few games here. I can see him forcing a long set, which could be enough to guarantee the line gets covered. Robredo hammered him on a hard court last year in Australia but Troicki has improved greatly since then, while Robredo has decreased a little. I see a close match, and the line is definitely worth a play. Bet strength: 3/10 Good luck :ok

Petzschner d. Melzer 7-6 6-2 - LOSS :wall Kohlschreiber d. Murray 6-2 6-1 - LOSS :wall Wawrinka d. Gulbis 6-1 6-4/Montanes d. Seppi 7-6 3-6 6-0 - WIN :ok Robredo d. Troicki 6-4 6-3 - LOSS :wall A 9.52pt loss for the day. Utter rubbish, but you get them sometimes. Trick is to come back tomorrow and get some winners.

[burf]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April I didn't see the Murray match but that is a mauling! He has completely lost his mind (literally) since losing the Aussie Open Final. I think he needs a sports psychologist quick!

[eighteighteight]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Youzhny taken the 1st set v Nalbandian. One more set please Mikhail :drums

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April I'm absolutely kicking myself for not taking Kolschrieber. I just knew Murray would play like that. By his own admission he's 'falling out of love' with tennis and couple that with his least favourite surface, then it was pretty obvious what was going to happen. I'll know next time to back my instincts!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April One for tomorrow....... Djokovic vs Wawrinka OVER 21.5 games @ 5/6 (Paddy Power : 10/10) This should be a good match. Djokovic leads H2H 9-2 but the last 4 or 5 have been tight affairs.I'm still not convinced by Djokovic....he's been below par for a while and just sacked his coach Todd Martin to go back to his old trainer full time. He was shaky on hard court for a number of months and today against Serra he was good in spells and really sloppy in others. Some poor service games but Serra is never gonna punish Djokovic on clay. Stan is on fire recently.....won in Casablanca where he looked OK throughout the tournament but then blew Hanescu away in the final. Similarly here in Monte Carlo with Hanescu again and Gulbis today. Serve looks good, clutch in big moments and he's definitely enjoying playing on clay right now. He has points to defend after reaching the semi here last year before losing to Djokovic in a tight 3 setter.I think in a way Djokovic has the game to be a pretty bad match-up for Stan....he's fitter which is posibly why he wins the tight matches between the two. Generally returns better and is solid off both wings so has the ability to consistently move Stan around the court. However right now I'm not totally convinced by Djokovic - he might well win tomorrow but Wawrinka has the ability to really push him here. I'd expect a tight 2 setter or a 3 setter here. GL!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April An early selection for me too tomorrow, as I fear the price may decay. Monte-Carlo - Tomas Berdych vs Fernando Verdasco Tomas Berdych at 1.90 (Boylesports) Berdych is returning to the form that catapulted him into the Top 10 a few years ago. He's playing with exceptional confidence, serving well and hitting winners off both flanks. He comes up against an opponent who he holds a 6-3 winning record over. Moreover, he's won the two meetings against Verdasco, played in the last two Masters tournaments in Miami and Indian Wells. It appears he has Verdasco's number. The other thing to consider is that clay is not Verdasco's best surface. The Spaniard does his best work on a quick court and doesn't adapt to clay quite as well as Berdych does. The Czech was sensational in beating Gasquet, has beaten Verdasco twice on clay and looks the more confident player. There is no way he should be priced at 1.90 for this - he should be a clear favourite. I'm happy to back him at these odds. Bet strength: 4/10 Good luck :ok

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April I'll be joining you on Berdych but you can get Evs with Skybet and i think Bluesq :ok

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

I'll be joining you on Berdych but you can get Evs with Skybet and i think Bluesq :ok

Apparently, Pinnacle Sports are offering 2.07 for Berdych

Sport	Tennis
Event	Tomas Berdych - Fernando Verdasco
Selection	1
Strength	7/10
Date	15/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.06 (Back)
Reasoning	ATP Monte Carlo - As good a clay-court player Fernando Verdasco (12th, 2725 points) is, he has not looked in the same league as Tomas Berdych (15th, 2270 points) over the last few weeks and the beginning of this week. Tomas Berdych seems like a revitalized player all of a sudden, boosted by runners-up at Miami, where Berdych defeated Verdasco in three sets en route to the final. The head-2-head record between the two is 6-3 to Berdych, and on clay it's 2-1 in favour of Berdych. I hope Tomas Berdych will win. Good luck!

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

Sport	Tennis
Event	Novak Djokovic - Stanislas Wawrinka
Selection	Over 21.5 Games
Strength	6/10
Date	15/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.83 (Back)
Reasoning	ATP Monte Carlo - Stanislas Wawrinka (20th, 1780 points) and Novak Djokovic (2nd, 7630 points) have been involved with three three-setters in their last four meetings. Djokovic leads the head-2-head stakes 9-2, but that's irrelevant here. They have faced each other three times on clay, with Djokovic leading the meetings 2-1, with the last two games going the distance while Djokovic retired in the first. I expect this one to be a close encounter with a tie-break or two. I hope this game will have more than 21.5 games. Good luck!

[DafsT]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April I'm tempted to lay against Ivan Ljubicic, he never does anything of worth on clay... I'll :zzz on it...

[burf]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April any value in Tsonga at 2.25 vs Ferrero?

[gregor1985]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April Tomas Berdych @ 2.06 (Betfair) Can't explain it better than Atko so I'm not going to try. He's a slight under dog on betfair but they'll prob flip flop a couple of times over night so took it early. I'm only putting a small amount on it because on a personal note I like the way Verdasco plays (explosive) however his head can drop. Berdych has come through some tight matches (most notably Federer recently) making me think if it is a close match (quite possible) then the Czech would edge it. Double Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 8/15 (to win) and David Ferrer @ 4/11 (to win the 1st set) Odds on the double 2.09 (Betfair) I think Ferrero is playing great tennis and expect him to wear the Frenchman down. Like most matches Tsonga plays in he has the ability to power his way through opponents. Ferrero however has accuracy on his side. I'm hoping to see him moving Tsonga about too much for the frenchman to get into a rhythm. Reckon this will be a great match all in all. To get value I've also put Ferrer to win the 1st set as I'd only get 2/7 for him to win the match. Ferrer @ 4/5 to win 2-0 (vs Ljubicic) (Betfair) He has a 13-1 win-loss ratio on clay for his last 14 matches with a 2-1 sets victory over Ferrero and Gonzalez being the closest wins. His loss came from J.C Ferrero 2-1. These 2 opponents are great clay court players and Ljubicic is not on the same planet as them. I'll be surprised if it's a close match hence the predicted 2-0 score line.

[burf]

Re: Tennis - 12-18 April

I'm tempted to lay against Ivan Ljubicic' date=' he never does anything of worth on clay... I'll :zzz on it...[/quote'] French Open Semi Finals 2006? and from wikipedia about 2009: Ljubičić received a wild card into the Monte Carlo Masters and in the 2nd round defeated Juan Martín del Potro 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. He proceeded to the quarterfinals where he was defeated by 4-time defending champion Rafael Nadal 6-3, 6-3. Because of his strong play at Monte Carlo, Ljubičić again received a wild card into the 2009 Madrid Masters. He again defeated a top ten player in the 2nd round, beating #9 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-4, 7-5. He then defeated #8 seed Gilles Simon 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 to reach his 3rd QF at a Masters 1000 event. He was defeated by Novak Djokovic 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinals.