Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary And the 5.10 to explore some other aspects Secret Asset 7+7+8=22 (8-1) Zidane 8+5+7=20 (8-1) Noverre To Go 9+4+7=20 (12-1) Get Carter 7+9+4=20 (4-1) Medicean Man 5+7+7=19 (16-1) Rulesnregulations 9+4+6=19 (11-1) We Have a Dream 4+6+5=15 New Leyf 5+5+5=15 (second fav) Aye Aye Digby 5+4+5=14 Wildcat Wizard 4+5+5=14 Pusey Street Lady 4+4+5=13 Tagula Night 4+5+4=13 Dametime 4+5+3=12 Seamus Shindig 5+3+3=11 Safari Mischief 5+1+4=10 A much closer race than the 2.50 with the field more compact on the ratings and nothing being lower than 10, which is my 'little chance' category. My 20+ ratings are where the strong performers are and in this case it's the second favourite Secret Asset that leads 4 horses in this category. There are also two close behind on 19 points and therefore I'm considering those too as there's a nice gap to the remainder on 10-15 points. That leaves me with Secret Asset 8-1 Zidane 8-1 Noverre To Go 12-1 Get Carter 4-1 Medicean Man 16-1 Rulesnregulations 11-1 Get Carter is the first one out on two counts, it's price 4-1 and it's 4 rating under Class. Rulesnregulations and Noverre To Go both have a 4 rating in one category (anything under 5 means there's doubts) but they are decent prices mainly due to the very short price of New Leyf and We Have A Dream who are both rated 15 (average chance in my opinion) so I'm chossing from the 5 and it's now down to prices which I rate as: Secret Asset - top rated by two clear points 5-1 Zidane 8-1 Noverre To Go 8-1 Get Carter 8-1 Medicean Man 10-1 Rulesnregulations 10-1 The three that now stand out are Secret Asset, Noverre To Go and Medicean Man any of which can be backed at a price higher than my assessment. Given the lack of doubts about Secret Asset he's chosen as the bet at 8-1. Result 1. Medicean Man 10-1 2. Wilcat Wizard 18-1 3. Noverre To Go 12-1 Secret Asset is backed from 8-1 into 9-2 joint fav and runs well although a little free under her claiming jockey and is short headed into 4th. Medicean Man proves itself on an uphill track for the first time (that was the main factor in keeping it's course rating down) and looks on the up. Wildcat Wizard springs back to form and should go well next time on a more suitable track. Get Carter (as anticipated) struggles with the rise in class and Zidane runs poorly with conditions in it's favour. That one will score even lower than todays 5 rating on the Form category next time. K

[RussP]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Absolutely fantastic posts mate:clap:clap:clap What a brilliant insight into your methods. I'm massively impressed in how you methodically go about these races. You've got the majority of the things nailed in terms of things to consider and I like the way it's split into categories. Very unlucky yesterday but you're more than on the right track.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks Russ. It's hard to take sometimes when you narrow it down correctly but choose the wrong one, especially when it happens a few times on the run. Yesterday, 3 of the 4 races I backed in went to a shortlist horse. It's almost easier to have another one win sometimes! One thing I will be looking at in future is whether I back more than one animal instead of picking one each way as it may shorten the losing runs. I just want to be careful not to end up taking a smaller profit margin as a result. Food for thought though as the two races yesterday would have been winners at reasonable prices: 2.50 Alsace Lorraine at 6-1 and Good Again at 12-1 would work out at 7-2 if both were backed. 5.10 Secret Asset at 8-1, Noverre to Go at 12-1 and Medicean Man at 16-1 would work out at 3-1 if all three were backed. K

[mowgli77]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary 1st time I've sen this thread in detail, very interesting methods. I do very similar but don't rate them, I use the RP site and there is a little x next to the horses names where you can discount horses and see the ones you are left with after considering all the things you mention. As for the one each way or a few to win I am doing both at the moment depending on the race and got it wrong other day in the Sans Frontieres race. I wanted to oppose the fav/2nd fav but went all in on the 1 horse each way and dismissed Debussy because I didn't want to back 2 horses in the race. :wall Good luck for the rest of the season, you are certainly on the right track with your methods. :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Absolutely fantastic posts mate:clap:clap:clap What a brilliant insight into your methods. I'm massively impressed in how you methodically go about these races. You've got the majority of the things nailed in terms of things to consider and I like the way it's split into categories. Very unlucky yesterday but you're more than on the right track.

+1 very interesting post

[RussP]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

Thanks Russ. It's hard to take sometimes when you narrow it down correctly but choose the wrong one, especially when it happens a few times on the run. Yesterday, 3 of the 4 races I backed in went to a shortlist horse. It's almost easier to have another one win sometimes! One thing I will be looking at in future is whether I back more than one animal instead of picking one each way as it may shorten the losing runs. I just want to be careful not to end up taking a smaller profit margin as a result. Food for thought though as the two races yesterday would have been winners at reasonable prices: 2.50 Alsace Lorraine at 6-1 and Good Again at 12-1 would work out at 7-2 if both were backed. 5.10 Secret Asset at 8-1, Noverre to Go at 12-1 and Medicean Man at 16-1 would work out at 3-1 if all three were backed. K

Certainly food for thought but don't be too hasty. I know many others on here take that route but it's personal opinion. One scenario for you to consider.....lets just imagine the 2.50 yesterday, you change your methods to become win only on the 2 selections. Alsace Lorraine now finishes a nose 2nd with Good Again a further length back in 3rd. You'd then be advocating moving back to your original method. Don't dismiss it out of hand but do backtest thoroughly to see what the real outcome is. Don't change on the strength of 2 results. Good luck mate. Great insight you've posted up:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Hi Kithanga, Very interesting to read your approach and I am sure you are set fair for a profitable season. I try and pull most of those factors together myself in coming to a selection - although not in such a structured way !! Since coming on this site I've switched to often backing more than one horse in a race. In the past, my 'mo' was to study a race in depth, come up with a shortlist, back the longest priced off that list, and then when it lost, rush to see what was running later in the day and make a hurried selection. (Often the winner was on my original shortlist.) I now feel there are times when I should be backing three. Either outright, as a saver, or to stakes so there is a small profit on the race. Having read some of Billy The Punter's posts and Patrick Veitch's book, they seem to do that more often than I would ever have considered. How many to back is very much a personal thing. I find the worse thing of all to contend with is a losing run, every good habit goes out the window. Cheers, Steve

[StuSimmy]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Some nice posts K, enjoyable to read how you go about your studying and I like how well structured it is and they way you rate the horses. You are definately on the right track and the profit so far is showing that your work is paying off.

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary nice insight K, will read through this properly when I get time :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I’ve added a little bit more detail on how I award a score for individual horses in response to the thread Russ started on Instant Handicapping. I hope it explains a little more and gives an insight into the considerations and the flexibility of the scoring that I use. I’ve tried to remember as much of my thinking about the race as possible. Hope it’s of use. Let me know if you have any questions or comments.

Going back to the 2.50 at Ascot and the selection in the race, Good Again. Here’s some of the thinking behind her score.

CDGD category: Things to consider for every runner in this category in this race are that we’re looking at a straight mile, circumstances that some of the distance winners may not have come across and with the stalls in the centre there’s no rail to help those on either flank making it open and galloping in nature. The course runs slightly downhill from the gate before rising, falling back slightly and climbing to about 1f out. That downhill start won’t help those that are difficult to settle, especially if drawn on one of the outside positions. Even more so if the early pace is poor. There’s no draw bias and no confirmed front runners. Seradim and Sarah Park drawn 4 and 14 are the mostly likely to provide the pace. There is light rain forecast according to the BBC weather but not until around 1pm so the good to firm going is likely to stay unchanged. The wind strength (low) and direction (slightly behind) won’t have much impact.

Good Again has won twice on the straight course here, once at 6f and once at today’s trip of 1m both times in today’s going. She’s normally help up off the pace but is drawn in the widest stall 16 today and may not find it easy to tuck in off the likely pace. She raced more prominently in her 6f win (only 6 runners) as a 2yo and a couple of times since, but hasn’t been anywhere near as good with that racing style. She’s completely proven on this track, in the going and over the trip. I’m not too worried about the pace. (I find this factor more useful for understanding previous runs as your calculations can often be undone by a change of tactics if trying to predict pace too accurately pre race). The only slight doubt is her draw and whether she’ll be able to get enough cover. Therefore, I scored her 9 out of 10 in this category.

FTI category: Early season so any fitness edge is an added benefit especially on such a galloping track. Those that have already shown themselves to be fit and well and those from stables in form are going to score higher. Decent prize money so unlikely any of the runners are using the race as a ‘warm up’ unless they have Group race engagements or aspirations.

Good Again hasn’t run since the end of January when running poorly. She also picked up an injury in that race. She’d regained her form prior to that with a win at Pontefract in October. The trainer has 1 win and 2 placed from 7 runs in the last 14 days and has won this race for the last two seasons. He’s reported her as having recovered from injury and believes her to have a good chance in the race. She’d already had two runs last season and shown herself to be in good form prior to winning this race. There are doubts here and her preparation is nowhere near as good as it was when she won last season. She’s only 4yo and unexposed though and has 4 wins from just 11 starts, one of them in class 2. That’s the percentage and profile of a decent animal. Despite the positive trainer form & comments and her scope, her current wellbeing is unknown and she needs to prove that she’s over her problems. I rate her as 4+ out of 10 as I’ve given more weight to current form/fitness in this category today as described above and this is where she’s weakest.

By the way, I score approximately as follows:

1 and 2 – Proven inability / lack of suitability 3 – Strong doubts 4 – Doubts 5 – Slight doubts / untried but expected to be ok 6 – ok 7 – Good indicators 8 – Proven, some concerns 9 – Proven, slight concerns 10 – Fully proven no concerns.

The plus indicates that I may be significantly wrong. For this example, the trainer has indicated she’s recovered and clearly targets the race so she may be in top form. A minus would normally apply to higher scores where I may have over rated an animal. A plus or minus can also be used for those that I don’t have enough information on because of too few runs, etc. It’s just a visual reminder for me to remind me when I’ve finished rating them all that there’s a doubt in my rating.

I don’t think I need to bother with the final category as I guess that’s given enough of an overview. Looking back at the race she was ridden more prominently than usual on the outside of the pack and faded from 2f out. So both areas of concern probably led to her downfall in the end.

K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Duke of York Stakes, York Wednesday 6f Showcasing to win at 9-2 looks a solid bet in this assuming that, as forecast, the rain stays away. A rare 3yo runner in this race he has already shown himself to be Group class and looks a classy sprinter. A wide draw is a slight concern first time up as is his age, but the potential outweighs these slight doubts and he comes out joint best for me with Main Aim. That one never really recovered from ulcer problems last season and can be expected to give the selection a decent test. However at half the price he's not value. Ratings I have for this race and current odds are Showcasing 23 (9-2) Main Aim 23 (5-2) Starspangledbanner 21? (11-2) ? because of foreign form hard to evaluate Mullianmileanhour 20+ (8-1) + due to scope Sayif 20 (12-1) Inxile 20 (12-1) Anglezarke 18+ (20-1) + due to scope at 6f Judd Street 18 (25-1) Prime Defender 18 (25-1) Doncaster Rover 16 (20-1) Damien 15 (33-1) Edge Closer 15 (33-1) K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary And for the final time (becuase it takes too long to post):( here's my summary of the 3.45 at York on Wednesday. It's assuming no change in the expected 'good' going and is a first pass review so subject to some tweaking once I've delved a bit deeper. It's a 1m 4f Handicap with 20 runners and the ratings (with prices at 100% book) are: Veloso 22 8-1 Mannlichen 22 8-1 The Fonz 20 11-1 Chalice Welcome 19 14-1 Incendo 19 14-1 Itlaq 18 16-1 Camps Bay 18 16-1 Blue Nymph 17 20-1 Omokoroa 17 20-1 Just Lille 16 25-1 Persian Peril 16 25-1 Kames Park 16 25-1 Aleatricis 16 25-1 Deauville Flyer 16 25-1 Kingsdale Orion 16 25-1 Geneva Geyser 14 33-1 Silk Hall 13 40-1 Cluain Alainn 13 40-1 Track Record 11 66-1 Sirgarfieldsobers 9 100-1 Should be interesting to see how far out these prices are from the forecast and actual prices on offer. The one I favour at the moment is Mannlichen who looks primed for a good run but it looks quite an open race. K

[RussP]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Good stuff K, and good luck.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary York tomorrow, my favourite racecourse in the country and one of the Yorkshire tracks I used to visit on a regular basis in the early 90's when being on course was essential to beating the betting tax. My best ever day was at this venue (19 August 1993) when Kithanga rounded off an amazing day's punting for me by landing a £900-£400 bet under Ray Cochrane for my third winner of the day. Brilliant! If tomorrow's anywhere near as good I'll be well happy. As advised the other day the first bet goes in the 3.10 and it's Showcasing who I have 9-2 about. He's in to 4's now but still worth a punt if you're not on him yet. Others to follow later K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary And the final bet tomorrow at York is in the 3.45 race, a handicap over 1m 4f. After more detailed analysis there's a few minor changes to my ratings, mainly on account of the likely pace of the race. It's still close but I feel that Mark Tompkins Omokoroa should go well under Darryll Holland at the forecast prices. A 4yo and therefore unexposed, this gelding was very much on the up towards the end of last season and posted a decent reappearance in a 10f race 4 weeks ago. I'm expecting him to come on for that run and go close tomorrow, each way at the best of the morning BOG prices. I'm expecting around 10-1 K

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Final bet of the day goes in the 7.30 at Bath and I'm going each way on the proven CD performer Magroom. He's in form and should have the race run to suit. There are doubts as he's racing off his highest mark and will need some luck in running, but at 5-1 it's in the price.

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

And the final bet tomorrow at York is in the 3.45 race, a handicap over 1m 4f. After more detailed analysis there's a few minor changes to my ratings, mainly on account of the likely pace of the race. It's still close but I feel that Mark Tompkins Omokoroa should go well under Darryll Holland at the forecast prices. A 4yo and therefore unexposed, this gelding was very much on the up towards the end of last season and posted a decent reappearance in a 10f race 4 weeks ago. I'm expecting him to come on for that run and go close tomorrow, each way at the best of the morning BOG prices. I'm expecting around 10-1 K

Both Tompkins and Holland are leading their respective stats list if I remember correctly. I always keep an eye out for Tompkins, whether round York or Pontefract, he seems a bit underrated IMO, good luck today. :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary York 1.40 Judge 'N Jury Each way at 14-1 looks a solid proposition in a difficult opening race. He fared best of the front runners on his debut at Newbury, is best at 5f and has winning form in large fields. York 3.10 Acrostic to win at 11-2 for Luca Cumani and Kieren Fallon. This progressive gelding finished a good 2l 3rd over CD on his final outing last season and has the scope to keep on progressing this year.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Yet another bad day at the office and I'm not at all happy with the current strike rate and profit. I feel that I'm in danger of wasting a whole season of potential profit if I don't do something about it. After all it's mid May and I've made hardly anything at all from a large number of bets. Time for some slight adjustments I think. Having reviewed my bets to date, I know where I need to make changes and these will start with immediate effect. The P&L for the thread currently stands at 55 bets with 8 winners. It's generated a small profit of 3.725 points or 6.7% ROI as at the end of today. Let's see if I can do any better from here on in. Wish me luck :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'll take a win bet on Issabella Gem to improve on her run behind Fatanah and take the 2.55 at Newbury at 25-1. She looked inexperienced and made up a lot of ground from off the pace that day and is overpriced.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm also going to take a win bet on Carioca in the 3.10 race at York at 7-2. I'm concerned that the favourite, Hafawa will take too keen a hold in this race. The selection is a progressive front runner who settles well and can therefore set the fractions under Fallon.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Well, that tweaking made a great difference didn't it! 17 losers and counting :sad

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Four selections for me today and I'm very hopeful of not making it 21 consecutive losers. However, in my current form, anything's possible. Newmarket 3.25 Gordonsville is now 6-1 with one firm and I'll take this without the BOG as a win bet. Seems to be coming back into form, has wins over the trip and class and has run well at Newmarket before. Favourite had a hard race last time out and looks worth taking on. Thirsk 4.25 I'll take Discanti at 7-2 to overcome his poor draw and win this. Unexposed over the trip he beat my selection (Brierty) comfortably last time out showing a good turn of speed and appears on the upgrade. Damika and Doctor Parkes look like the main dangers. Thirsk 5.00 Jaconet ran well at York the other day and I'm hoping she has too much speed on this sharp track for the favourite who I think may need softer and/or a stiffer finish. A good bet at the 11-4 available. Thirsk 5.30 Igoyougo is well drawn, in form and potentially on the upgrade so ticks all the boxes at the 9-2 currently available.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary :puke Time for a break

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Chin up K, everyone has a dry run for a while. Just watched that 5.30 race, a very wierd race indeed with Sirenuse going off at 100 mph but showing no letting up close home. Just stick with whatever you did before and it will return :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Thanks for the encouragement Fin, appreciated. Just needed 24 hours away from the racing to let the dust settle. Thread P&L is now 61 Bets for 9 Winners and a Loss of 2.275 points. The losing run is now 21 bets, with little sign of a breakthrough. I must admit to breaking the golden rule recently as the desparation for a winner has got hold. That is, I've been trying to find the winner instead of the value. It doesn't matter too much when they win, or when the value horse loses, but it matters in the long term and is just pure daft. One example is the race completed in depth from day 1 at York (see above) Omokoroa who's value price after I'd finalised the form was edged into 14-1 was backed at 11-1. I still had Mannlichen priced at 8-1 and left it unbacked (save for a small saver at 16-1). Why? I just fancied it more and went with gut feel. Stupid really, although no harm done as Mannlichen didn't win either. However, harm was done at Thirsk on Saturday as Damika returned to form with the rail draw and won at 6-1 having been 11-1 (pre R4) in the morning and 6-1 on my prices. I backed Discanti at 7-2 who was priced at 7-2 by me. Doctor Parkes was the other 'value price' in the race although not with the same amount of margin. That really does have to go down as a missed opportunity and boy did it hurt. Other plays on Saturday were: Gordonsville 6-1 (my price 9-2) - ok Jaconet 11-4 (my price 11-4) - Erm! Igoyougo 9-2 (my price 5-1) - Doh! Ok, so what've I learned. That you can't predict the run of wins/losses and have no control over a winning or losing run and when it will start or end. Trying to end a losing run by going for the winner in a race sometimes works but you really notice it when it doesn't and your value selection storms in. There's no worse feeling in racing for me. Looking forward, I have to return to backing the value and not worry about when this bad run will end. It will end, eventually and I'll get back in front, but not if I forget to obtain value in my search for a winnner. Back later in the week.

[fintron]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary i totally understand where youre coming from, picking the most likely winner. there was a time earlier in the season I couldnt find a winner for love nor money and having just set up a little email service was desperate to find just one for the guys, just to put a winner in the balance sheet after my value picks (and i was getting good value) kept flopping. i think as punters we have to accept that these losing runs are part and parcel of betting and that deviating from streategy can cause more harm than good. When i am in a losinf run and i have my shortlist the temptation is to pick the shortest as it has the best chance of winning, but i now try and show a bit of steel and pick the one that i think is best value.. This run will be a blessing in disguise though k, its written out in a thread and layer in the aeason you will be able to look back and avoid the same pitfall. It will also show that you can come through a losing run and see the light at the end of the tunnel!

[Trotter]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary I'm loving this thread ! Re - the losing run.........I'm in the middle of my first real 'losing run' since I started betting again in February. Things had been going so well that it only took half a dozen losers to set the alarm bells ringing. I realised that i was slipping into bad habits and reading the above few posts it seems that it's the same 'bad habit' that you guys mention. I was putting maximum bets on a couple of favourites and I was doing it two minutes before the 'off' because I'd just made a cuppa and fancied settling down and watching a race on the telly 'with an interest' In both cases it was a race I'd studied but had come to no conclusion about - in other words a 'leave alone' race I've got my own phrase for this scenario - 'panic betting'......... In order to avoid panic betting I just took a break of a week or so with no bets in the hope that when I resume, it'll be out of my system and I can start afresh. Don't know about you guys, but I think the thing to avoid at all costs is trying to bet your way out of bad habits - take a break !

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Good comments guys, I recognise both the examples you gave. I think we just have to give ourselves a good talking to sometimes and remind ourselves of our ground rules. I actually upped my personal stakes on Saturday by 50% as I was confident of winning and wanted to make a big dent in the recent losses. Stupidity always seems to be rewarded with a good spanking by lady luck. I noticed that I haven't put up any of my ground rules, so here they are to remind me of what I'm supposed to be doing. They are built on the experience of the last 20 years and are probably what's kept me in profit for the last few years. It seems that I only tend to move away from them when losing and that generally makes things worse and I eventually revert back, which is about where I am at the moment. Race Types: Handicaps (class 4 and above), Conditions, Listed & Group are best for me. Ignore maidens (too little info), claimers, sellers and class 5 and below (too inconsistent). Age: 2yo's are out as they can improve so much from run to run. 3yo only are mostly missed out early season, especially over 7f+ where there's so little form and so much potential improvement at the new trip & with a winter on their back. The only exception is the 3yo only non handicaps which are much more readable in some cases due to the quality of the animals involved. Price: Always price up a race, even if it looks obvious and only back the ones (with a chance) that are value. The 'with a chance' means I won't back something that's overpriced if I have a significant doubt about it or there are too many unknowns when pricing it up. I tend to find this is taking the value approach too far for me if I back these. For example, a badly out of form stable with one that's not run for a while and is priced at 20-1 when I have it at 14-1. I can leave those alone without any regrets as I actually think there's probably too many unknowns to be confident about the price. Runners: Avoid big field races (16+ runners) unless there's a bias or trend that takes a fair proportion of the field out. It takes too long to study, the margins are poorer and their's more incentive to have a (bad) bet as it's taken hours to study. The best races are about 5 to 13 runners. Staking: Be consistent, reserve the smaller stakes for the races that show the smallest long term margin and the bigger stakes for the ones that show the biggest margin. Obvious really. That's it for now.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary One bet tonight in the 7.30 at Carlisle. With the withdrawal of Dream Of Olwyn, Celtic Change now looks like a decent price at 9-2 to take this. He's run well on similar tracks and ground in the past and is about a point over the odds here IMO