Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Hopefully a focus on one meeting and plenty of rest will pay dividends today. I'm at my local track today and think I'll need my raincoat. Haydock 2.00 Elnawin at 11-2 has every chance especially as I feel good ground suits him better than g/f and it's worth taking on the favourite first time up at a distance that may be short of his best. Haydock 2.30 Mister Manannan at 5-1 has the best form on the book and goes well on good ground. The lone front runner in the race, he may get his own way up front here. Haydock 3.00 In a race with plenty of pace on, I'll take the 4yo Becqu Adoree at 4-1 to continue her improvment from last season on her first start for Luca Cumani. That age group has a good record in this race. Haydock 3.30 and Main Aim is given a chance at 11-4 to confirm he's over his problems. By this time in the afternoon there's a prospect of softer ground and this will suit this animal.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Newmarket 4.05 I expect Imperial Guest to be suited by the way this race is likely to be run and he's the bet at 12-1

[bowles10]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary agree with everything in your post Kithanga and it could have been me writing that a few months back. Since then i have committed more bets to weekends when i have more generally. I also rarely have an EW bet now, maybe only once a month if that, and i do back more than 1 in the race if i fancy a couple and cannot split them. I am also doing more level stakes as i am fed up with hitting a long price winner with small stakes as these winners will boost my profits higher than the lower prices will. I am finding the long losing runs then stop with a few winners just keeping to the same strategy. I also keep records per month for P/L account as well as the overall. This gives me a good insight into my strike rate and yield at certain times of year. I went down to 14% strike rate but with more profit than a 20% strike rate, so again its not the volume of winners but the stakes/price. Keep going mate and i think that profit will come.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary Yet another loser and I'm fast running out of patience with this approach of increasing the number of bets. Just the one bet today and it's exactly the type of bet and race that I've always done well with in the past so there'll be no excuses if this one doesn't run well. If it goes as well as I hope it may even spell the end of this costly experiment and send me back to betting the way I always have in the past. If it loses then I really am out of ideas and will take a break. 3.10 Goodwood. A competitive little Listed race where the favourite, Laaheb is expected to win by the majority of punters. However, this front runner has plenty of competition for the lead here today and with his best form on uphill tracks is opposable IMO. His best run of last season, when winning a Listed race, is weak form as apart from the second the remainder were out of form or running over the wrong trip. He'll come on for his debut at Sandown and could go well but I think he's not as good as his price indicates. For example, the 20-1 shot Soul City finished just over a length behind him at Sandown. So either Laaheb should be a longer price in this or Soul City is the bet of the season at 20's and I think it's the former. Palavicini is the one for me. A proven Group 3 level performer as a 3yo, this one has experience of the track when outpaced in a strong, but tactical, Group 3 at the course last season won my Mac Love (who I backed). His seasonal reappearance at Newmarket was in a much stronger race than Laaheb and he ran well before hanging when tiring up the hill. Despite that he still finished on the heels of the leaders and with the stable in much better form now he's a very strong chance at 9-2. The one danger is the draw on the rail and I hope Eddie Ahern doesn't find himself trapped behind weakening horses through the final 2f. Drunken Sailor may need this after 3 months off the track and I get the feeling this is a prep race for the Northumberland Plate later in June, especially as 10f looks on the short side for him given that entry over 2m. Indian Days is in good form and has run well here before, but as with Laaheb he's not going to get any easy time up front. A strike rate of 3 wins in 27 starts, the best being a handicap win off 91 says to me that he's not got the class for this contest. Traffic Guard has the ability to win this but, IMO, not the temprement. Therefore I expect him to go close and run well without winning. Chock A Block is hard to evaluate and could be capable of taking this based on one run from last year, however he'd struggle to win a modest handicap based on the other starts. He's a danger to the selection. Of the others Soul City is probably overpriced if he can come back to his best. So Palavicini to win at 9-2 for me. I've lumped on and will go ahead for the season if he does the business. Therefore, I make him a 2 point win bet on the thread.

[Kithanga]

Re: Kithanga's Flat 2010 diary

The one danger is the draw on the rail and I hope Eddie Ahern doesn't find himself trapped behind weakening horses through the final 2f.

When your luck's out it's really out. At least it ran well and I'm convinced it would have gone close with a clear run. That one's better performance has convinced me now though that it's the end of the line for this approach and thread. I gave it a go trying to back more often and playing regularly in the Handicaps (which I never do well on for some reason). I'm reverting back to my usual approach of playing in the Listed, Group and Conditions races from now on and cutting back on the bets. Hopefully I'll be able to make back some or all of the losses I've incurred this month by the end of the year. I'm off for a rest now until Friday's Epsom meeting but this'll be the last update from me on this thread. Thanks to those who've tried to help me along, particularly Fintron who's got the game nailed at the moment, Russ P, Bowles 10, Stu, Trotter, Ram and all the others. Best of luck with your selections guys and hope you don't hit a patch like I've done recently, it's soul destroying! K