fintron Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Has anyone been quoted odds for a St Nicholas Abbey 2,000 Guineas - Derby double, and if so, where? How much? Apologies to Mileni in advance, I know he cannot understand why we are interested in those boring flat races when Chelto is only two weeks away :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I am interested in this horse though. I have big price for the Derby .. relax :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey to answer my own question, i found specials market with bet 365 offering 7/1. Now time to find whether he will go for the guineas.....i cant see why not based on juvenile form, he won easily over a mile at doncaster and most of those prominent in the guineas betting were sprinters and doubtful stayers, he looks a cut above them all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I think they might have something else for the Guineas. Not a flat specialist, but I heard some comments at the end of the flat season. The idea was that Ballydoyle produce stallions etc. , so his participation wasn't certain. Quite sure Billy will have an idea about this? And Fin, do you think you'll get better price with a double offered? Rarely those doubles are value imo. He's 7/2 and 9/4 now, which makes 13/1. When he's sure to go for the Guineas take a bit lower price. Possibly 5/2 and then stake the winnings on the Derby. If he's 5/2 or 9/4 for the 2000 and then if wins well, he'd be 6/4 for the Derby. You could get around 8s I would've thought. And you won't be risking his participation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Don't know how far you believe in the stats, Fin..........but here's a couple that might put you off Nick for the Guineas....... First, Aidan O'Brien's Racing Post Trophy runners have gone on to contest 14 Group 1's over a mile or less at three without once being placed in the first four. They've done so 22 times out of 45 at longer distances. Second, so far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey's sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed. From Nick Mordin's column From this i gather that OBrien doesn't run his Guineas horses in the Racing Post Trophy and that Montjeu doesn't produce Milers, he produces stayers. Course, he might buck the trends......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey yeah, i see what you are saying about staking the winnings. I am not one for betting at short prices ante post but the trends that identified sea the stars from a shortlist of three pinpoint st nich this year. Stoutes workforce was picked out too but apparently they see that as more of a middle distance prospect and will skip the guineas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey just seen your post trotter!! I was going on stamina indeces (8f+) and winning form over 7f+, surprisingly, many contenders fail to meet these criteria. Full trends in the 'classic time 2,000 guineas' thread from last year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Second, so far 24 horses older than two sired by St Nicholas Abbey's sire Montjeu have tried to win a Group 1 over less than ten and a half furlongs. They all failed. What about the dam/ dam's other progeny? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I'll answer my own question here, just found this on the RP website; "St Nicholas Abbey is out of Leaping Water, an unraced mare by Sure Blade, who earned his reputation as a miler, failed as a sire, and has cut little ice as a broodmare sire. Can we believe that he might have supplied a dash of speed for the Beresford winner to make him perhaps a contender for the Guineas as well as the Derby? Frankly, it is hard to see Sure Blade being a positive influence for anything, and it will be better for St Nicholas Abbey's prospects of top-level success if he is a pure Montjeu, a faithful scion of the Sadler's Wells tribe. Leaping Water has had an odd career, changing hands for only 3,200gns as a three-year-old, spending her first three seasons in the company of Pips Pride, then venturing to America with a Definite Article colt inside her who proceeded to win a couple of Grade 2 turf events in California. Her spell in the States, visiting indifferent sires, proved unproductive, but she then came home for coverings by Sadler's Wellsand Montjeu – an upmarket move explained by the emergence of her young half-brothers Aristotle and Ballingarry, both sons of Sadler's Wells, as Group 1 winners. This is a family in which stamina predominates, and it is a fair bet that we shall see the best of St Nicholas Abbey when he has the opportunity to stretch out to 1m4f next summer." When I looked at the mare's credentials, I wasn't filled with intrigue as I was with STS's. Guineas? pass, Derby, likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I think they might have something else for the Guineas. Not a flat specialist' date=' but I heard some comments at the end of the flat season. The idea was that Ballydoyle produce stallions etc. , so his participation wasn't certain. Quite sure Billy will have an idea about this? And Fin, do you think you'll get better price with a double offered? Rarely those doubles are value imo. He's 7/2 and 9/4 now, which makes 13/1. When he's sure to go for the Guineas take a bit lower price. Possibly 5/2 and then stake the winnings on the Derby. If he's 5/2 or 9/4 for the 2000 and then if wins well, he'd be 6/4 for the Derby. You could get around 8s I would've thought. And you won't be risking his participation[/quote'] I see your point Mileni, but if he won the Guineas I don't think he'd be anywhere near as big as 6/4 for the Derby. He's 9/4 now, so if he were to win the Guines I think he'd be odds on for Epsom. I don't think he'll go to Newmarket, but I'm tempted to do some accumulators for the middle distance classics such as the Derby, the Eclipse, the Juddmonte and the Arc. He looks an absolute class act in my opinion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I did a bit of digging on Google last night. There is nothing to confirm he is going to Newmarket, neither is their anything to definately rule him out of the race. So it looks a case of sitting on cash for now..... O'Brien has said the decision will be made at the end of this month...... "Early spring they all come together and we'll see how they are and at what stage they're at. We'll go away to a couple of tracks for a couple pieces of work, usually towards the end of March," he confirmed. "Paul Hennessy and the team at the Curragh are good enough to let us go there for a canter a little before the Guineas and we just have a feeling then where they'll fit in and what's going to happen. "It's so far so good with St Nicholas Abbey and all options are open at the moment. "Everyone saw last year he's a very unusual horse. He's by Montjeu but has loads of speed and loads of class. His three runs he was dropped in, cruised through them and picked up really well. "He looks a very classy horse and he will be trained with a Classic campaign in mind." He has plenty of other options for the Guineas as you'd expect, Steinbeck, Cape Blanco, Viscount Nelson, Fencing Master and Beethoven some of the others he has in the betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey No great surprise to see Arcano (trainer said he needed the run) and Canford Cliffs (best form over sprint distances last season) disappoint today, upped in trip. Both have drifted for the Guineas but they would be questionable stayers anyway based on the stamina indeces of their sires (guineas winners have usually won over further at two also). St Nicholas Abbey's odds have been trimmed again today after that result, and Elusive Pimpernel's demolition job of the Craven field last week at HQ - now a best priced 7/4, 6/4 in places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted April 17, 2010 Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey St Nick does have some miling blood in his pedigree, though agree most of it is middle distance. St James's Stakes winner Starborough (also sire of top class Hungarian sprinter Overdrive), was the produce of grand dam Flamenco Wave (herself winner of the Moyglare Stakes at two). Ballingarry and Aristotle (middle distance) were also out of Flamenco Wave. St Nick's Racing Post Trophy (1m) was a slowly run affair in which he produced a cracking turn of foot. With that much speed, you'd think he'd be effective at 1 mile at 3, whatever his sire's record. Biggest problem for the stable might be getting him there in form. Unless things have changed in the last couple of days, stable are in poor form at the moment. Although that's happened before at this stage and yet won the Guineas, both Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle were not at their best last year in the Guineas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted May 1, 2010 Author Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey The day of reckoning. Who is on him? What prices have you got? 7/2 for the Guineas for me (although that is diluted down to 3/1 with my other bets in the race) and also got him in a little Guineas - Derby double at 7/1. Come on St Nick :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Unfortunately missed the value prices Fin, so unable to back him.:sad You've got some cracking value there. Good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey think he will win the Derby, today not so sure, Elusive P might just pip him Thats the 1-2 for me, should be a great race:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Today they all have to beat Clanford cliffs. We aint seen the best of him yet. The price now is a steal. 2 weeks ago was to sharpen him up, today has always been the plan. R-Hannon and his son both know how good he is, and R-hughes has said many times its the best horse he's ever ridden. We should see the real Clanford cliffs today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Today they all have to beat Clanford cliffs. We aint seen the best of him yet. The price now is a steal. 2 weeks ago was to sharpen him up, today has always been the plan. R-Hannon and his son both know how good he is, and R-hughes has said many times its the best horse he's ever ridden. We should see the real Clanford cliffs today. I totally disagree. He'd be the one in single figure odds that I'd be happy to write off first. Couldn't beat Arcano when fully tuned up, and couldn't even beat Dick Turpin lto. His action looked strange lto and he didn't really look genuine. I'd be backing Dick Turpin if I had to back one of the Hannon pair, at least he looks like he wants to win the top races. I'd be happy to lay Canford Cliffs all day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey A good friend of mine who has some decent contacts in Ireland thinks this horse is off the scale good. The latest report he had from last week, was The Abbey might win by 5 lengths today...on the steel! Now i'm a small stakes punter, but 5/4 could still represent huge value. If he should realistically be a two's on shot, odds against is very attractive....Definitely going to have £20 on today!:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey just couldnt see how the price was any value based on what it had done, RP trophy winners somehow seem to be unable to win the race these days. For me its a Derby horse so hopefully O'Brien will still go that route, no excuses today unless the ground was too fast? as all form on soft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Have to agree with you there Bowles , a great Chance at Epsom imo . Was running on at the end and to my eye wasn't unduly pushed to do so , you'll have a good chance to get your cash back with this one in 4 weeks time Fin :ok The Racing Post form certainly doesn't stand up well and hasn't done for a good while now . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Depends on the pace. Stands to reason any Racing Post winner will need a truly run race at a mile as a 3yo. Why Coolmore didn't force the pace is strange. Both St Nich and Fencing M need a truly run race. Thought Fallon should've gone on. Maybe he came out of the gate slowly. All the first 3 had form over far shorter, "sprinters" second and third. The winner did it well though and may have won in a truly run race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Depends on the pace. Stands to reason any Racing Post winner will need a truly run race at a mile as a 3yo. Why Coolmore didn't force the pace is strange. Both St Nich and Fencing M need a truly run race. Thought Fallon should've gone on. Maybe he came out of the gate slowly. All the first 3 had form over far shorter, "sprinters" second and third. The winner did it well though and may have won in a truly run race. It lost, it wasnt in the 1st 3, superstars dont need the race to be run to suit otherwise they wouldnt be superstars sadly over hyped much like Rainbow View last season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCAKER Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey Have to agree with you Bowles on that running although i genuinely think connections thought he was the real deal. Obviously he now has a huge amount to prove, but not unitl i see his next run do i think we can truly know how good he is...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey It lost, it wasnt in the 1st 3, superstars dont need the race to be run to suit otherwise they wouldnt be superstars sadly over hyped much like Rainbow View last season Yipp fully agree. Christmas morning is over hyped as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey It lost, it wasnt in the 1st 3, superstars dont need the race to be run to suit otherwise they wouldnt be superstars sadly over hyped much like Rainbow View last season 100% agree put very well!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I think the Derby is between St Nick and Elusive Pimprnel. Superstars don't need pace to win over a mile true, but I don't think there is Sea The Stars out there, so the best suited horses will win the Derby this year. Despite being 5th and 6th, I think those two are still the most likely winners of the Derby and they both needed the trip badly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 1, 2010 Share Posted May 1, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey 100% agree put very well!! notwithstanding that, i think it is the horse to beat in the Derby over 4f further. Lets see what runs in the Dante etc to take it on come June 5th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted May 2, 2010 Share Posted May 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey I think we need to be careful about all the Sea The Stars comparisons. I know it's the season directly after Sea The Stars, but it's important to remember that that horse achieved things that had never been achieved before, and could be a long time, if at all, that similar things are achieved again. Just because St Nicholas Abbey didn't win today doesn't mean he's overhyped. If he goes on to win the Derby (for which, may I remind y'all he remains antepost favourite) and then maybe the Arc and/or Eclipse or whatever, that will still make him one hell of a horse. We can't write him off just because of today. Jesus. I still fancy him for Epsom, and will now get about quadruple the price that I would have had he won today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 2, 2010 Share Posted May 2, 2010 Re: St Nicholas Abbey It lost, it wasnt in the 1st 3, superstars dont need the race to be run to suit otherwise they wouldnt be superstars sadly over hyped much like Rainbow View last season Where did I say I thought SNA was a "superstar"? It was disappointing the early pace was so slow. If last year's race would've been run with early fractions that slow: STS (who was also bred to stay further than a mile, like SNA) may not have produced as good a performance. Delegator (who barely stays a truly run mile) may have been able to do a little better (without such a stamina test). Therefore Delegator may have beaten STS in last year's Guineas had it been a slowly run first half of the race, like yesterday. Pace is an important part of the jigsaw. It's an important part of race reading any student of form needs to learn. :ok The "poor showing" by SNA may also be more to do with ground cionditions than distance. First time on a firm surface. I thought I'd heard the last of Rainbow View, not the best memory backed her ante-post at 10/1, started odds-on, got beat. Hyped, possibly, she only showed her true form a couple of times last year. Horses are not machines, they should not be thrown to the wolves for one disappointing performance. Then again, wolves would not want to eat machines anyway. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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