Close Games

[relf]

Re: Close Games Here we go again! Selections for this week: 74) Atalanta vs Fiorentina - Atalanta @ 2.35 75) Bari vs Napoli - Napoli @ 2.40 76) Cagliari vs Palermo - Palermo @ 2.25 77) Sampdoria vs AC Milan - AC Milan @ @ 2.62 78) Tenerife vs Getafe - Tenerife @ 2.40 79) Xerez vs Racing Santander - Xerez @ 2.40 All odds are from Bet365.

[relf]

Re: Close Games That makes it 7 profitable rounds in a row! Results for this week: 74) Atalanta vs Fiorentina - Atalanta @ 2.35 - WIN 75) Bari vs Napoli - Napoli @ 2.40 - WIN 76) Cagliari vs Palermo - Palermo @ 2.25 - LOSE 77) Sampdoria vs AC Milan - AC Milan @ @ 2.62 - LOSE 78) Tenerife vs Getafe - Tenerife @ 2.40 - WIN 79) Xerez vs Racing Santander - Xerez @ 2.40 - LOSE Staked: 6 pts Returns: 7.15 pts Profit: 1.15 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 79 pts Total Returns: 92.10 pts Total Profit: 13.10 pts Yield: 16.6% Strike Rate: 48.1% (38 out of 79)

[Grex]

Re: Close Games Excellent results, Relf :clap..... must be one of the most profitable systems on the Forum, especially taking into account the relatively high number of selections. One comment...... I have not done a detailed analysis, but I get the impressions that your yield would be even higher if you omitted the "away" selections.... or perhaps it is just me imagination.:ok

[relf]

Re: Close Games Thanks for your comment. Frankly, I have forgotten the reason why I included "home" and "away" selections in this system. One reason could be that there wasn't any difference during back-testing, or another reason could be that a larger set of selections would have lower risk (i.e. smaller ranges of yield). I'm kinda busy at these few weeks, so I will probably look it up and do some research during the summer. As for this being one of the most profitable systems, it's really too early too say. With sample sizes like these, we have seen how much the yield can drop during a bad weekend. Still, thanks for your encouragement. Hopefully this system could see out the rest of the season with a decent yield.

[relf]

Re: Close Games

Excellent results, Relf :clap..... must be one of the most profitable systems on the Forum, especially taking into account the relatively high number of selections. One comment...... I have not done a detailed analysis, but I get the impressions that your yield would be even higher if you omitted the "away" selections.... or perhaps it is just me imagination.:ok

You know what, you are spot-on!!! :notworthy However, I did some statistical analysis and the results are inconclusive. Here's the breakdown for "Home" and "Away": Home Total Staked: 59 pts Total Returns: 74.90 pts Total Profit: 15.90 pts Yield: 26.9% Strike Rate: 52.5% (31 out of 59) Away Total Staked: 20 pts Total Returns: 17.20 pts Total Profit: -2.80 pts Yield: -14.0% Strike Rate: 35.0% (7 out of 20) --- Overall Total Staked: 79 pts Total Returns: 92.10 pts Total Profit: 13.10 pts Yield: 16.6% Strike Rate: 48.1% (38 out of 79) --- Statistical Analysis Of Strike Rates: *The odds between home and away selections are approximately similar, so I'm only analysing the strike rates. A 95% confidence interval for the difference of "Home" and "Away" strike rates is (0.525-0.350) +/- 0.245 = (-0.07, 0.420). As the interval contains 0, at 5% significance level, we actually have insufficient evidence to conclude that the "Home" strike rate is different from the "Away" strike rate. As for hypothesis testing, the p-value is 0.162. In simplified terms, it means if the true "Home" and "Away" strike rates are equal, we can expect such results to happen 16.2% of the time, which isn't considered rare in statistical terms. The main factor here is actually the relatively small sample size.

[Jimaldo]

Re: Close Games Relf, I've just read the whole of this thread. Good work! However, I know you're only doing a paper trial, but the bottom line is you're of course trying to get the biggest yield return. Therefore, is it not worth comparing all bookies odds and using the best price for home and away? It should return you more. I say should and not would because some of the odds will add or remove games you've currently used / not used. For example if you had Inter v AC at 2.10 and 3.10, this would qualify under your bet365 odds, however Inter @ 2.25 and AC at 3.20 as the best prices from other sites would mean the difference is > 1, therefore removing it from your selection. I think you can get the bookies previous prices for the past few years off football-data, maybe worth re-trialing it in the summer and try to take every opportunity to increase you yield? Great work so far though mate :ok

[Jimaldo]

Re: Close Games Just had a look, football-data has the past 5 years of Italian odds on from various bookies and past 7 years for Spain :)

[Jimaldo]

Re: Close Games And now I've just run your system through this current season using the best odds from the bookies football-data list (not the stuff from betbrain). PM me Relf if you want a copy of my workings. I seem to have twice as many games that would be bet on this season than you have, have you missed many from this season or are the extra games cause of the different prices? Overall Total Staked: 167 pts Total Returns: 196.84 pts Total Profit: 29.84 pts Yield: 17.9% Strike Rate: 46.7% (78 out of 167)

[relf]

Re: Close Games Thanks for your interest, Jimaldo! I shall try to answer your questions to the best of my ability here. 1) About Selection I actually used the data from football-data to back-test the past 5 years for both Serie A and Primera. The results are actually posted in this thread - Post #4 (http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/close-games-96371/#post1587505) Because I only used Bet365 odds to back-test, I'm not entirely sure how things would go if you consider other bookies. My guess is that it's only marginally different. Like you mentioned, this is only a paper trail so I'm using Bet365 odds for reference. But if I were to stake real bets, I would first decide on my selections based on Bet365 odds - if the difference is

[Jimaldo]

Re: Close Games how many posts do i need to be able to be PM'ed?

[jovinco]

Re: Close Games 50 posts for PM

[Jimaldo]

Re: Close Games i better start contributing more :)

[relf]

Re: Close Games 3 home and 2 away selections this week! Selections for this week: 80) Genoa vs Lazio - Genoa @ 2.40 81) Racing Santander vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.37 82) Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid - Sporting Gijon @ 2.25 83) Getafe vs Sevilla - Sevilla @ 2.50 84) Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365.

[relf]

Re: Close Games Our profitable 7-week run comes to a stop this weekend. Let's hope things improve! Results for this week: 80) Genoa vs Lazio - Genoa @ 2.40 - LOSE 81) Racing Santander vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.37 - WIN 82) Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid - Sporting Gijon @ 2.25 - LOSE 83) Getafe vs Sevilla - Sevilla @ 2.50 - LOSE 84) Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna @ 2.50 - LOSE Staked: 5 pts Returns: 2.37 pts Profit: -2.63 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 84 pts Total Returns: 94.47 pts Total Profit: 10.47 pts Yield: 12.5% Strike Rate: 46.4% (39 out of 84)

[talent]

Re: Close Games the explanation for why this system applies more to Serie A and Primera is probably because most of the times when a LATIN team plays home the morale advantage is bigger than for other colder blooded teams

[relf]

Re: Close Games Hi, talent! Not sure how true the explanation is, but thanks for the input! 4 selections this week, all from Primera. Selections for this week: 85) D Coruna vs Real Zaragoza - D Coruna @ 2.40 86) Valladolid vs Getafe - Valladolid @ 2.40 87) Xerez vs Almeria - Xerez @ 2.50 88) Espanyol vs Valencia - Valencia @ 2.40 All odds are from Bet365.

[dieberiz]

Re: Close Games thanks :)

[relf]

Re: Close Games We are back into the green this weekend! Results for this week: 85) D Coruna vs Real Zaragoza - D Coruna @ 2.40 - LOSE 86) Valladolid vs Getafe - Valladolid @ 2.40 - LOSE 87) Xerez vs Almeria - Xerez @ 2.50 - WIN 88) Espanyol vs Valencia - Valencia @ 2.40 - WIN Staked: 4 pts Returns: 4.90 pts Profit: 0.90 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 88 pts Total Returns: 99.37 pts Total Profit: 11.37 pts Yield: 12.9% Strike Rate: 46.6% (41 out of 88)

[relf]

Re: Close Games Selections for this week: 89) Almeria vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.25 90) Racing Santander vs Sevilla - Sevilla @ 2.25 All odds are from Bet365.

[relf]

Re: Close Games A small profit in the midweek! Results for this week: 89) Almeria vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.25 - LOSE 90) Racing Santander vs Sevilla - Sevilla @ 2.25 - WIN Staked: 2 pts Returns: 2.25 pts Profit: 0.25 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 90 pts Total Returns: 101.62 pts Total Profit: 11.62 pts Yield: 12.9% Strike Rate: 46.7% (42 out of 90)

[Tomaat23]

Re: Close Games Did you also checked it up on other leagues? I don't know how to check it up, but I've got a gutfeeling that this system also works with home teams in the English leagues (Championship and lower). A lot of those matches are close and I think a lot of home teams win more often. Just sharing thougts on this way. GL with your system!

[relf]

Re: Close Games

Did you also checked it up on other leagues? I don't know how to check it up, but I've got a gutfeeling that this system also works with home teams in the English leagues (Championship and lower). A lot of those matches are close and I think a lot of home teams win more often. Just sharing thougts on this way. GL with your system!

Hi Tomaat23, I have only checked with the EPL, Serie A and Primera. EPL didn't produce any positive result, while Serie A and Primera had positive yields only for the last 2 seasons - it will be 3rd since this season is going to finish in the green as well. I might do back-testing on the German league and Championship and see what I get. Just to clarify, I'm not backing home teams in close matches. I'm backing the one with the lower odds, but the majority are home teams.

[relf]

Re: Close Games The whole list of 20 matches from Serie A and Primera only produced 1 fixture that matched the criteria this weekend. How weird. In any case, this will be the last round of matches for the system. This means there will not be selections for the final round of Serie A and Primera matches. It has got nothing to do with the matches themselves, the sole reason is that I will be going overseas so I can't update this thread. So, let's hope we end on a high! Selections for this week: 91) Xerez vs Real Zaragoza - Real Zaragoza @ 2.37 All odds are from Bet365.

[relf]

Re: Close Games As I've mentioned earlier, our system will end here for the season. Thanks for your support! Results for this week: 91) Xerez vs Real Zaragoza - Real Zaragoza @ 2.37 - LOSE Staked: 1 pts Returns: 0 pts Profit: -1 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 91pts Total Returns: 101.62 pts Total Profit: 10.62 pts Yield: 11.7% Strike Rate: 46.2% (42 out of 91)

[Tomaat23]

Re: Close Games

Just to clarify, I'm not backing home teams in close matches. I'm backing the one with the lower odds, but the majority are home teams.

I know, but I was just wondering if it could make any difference. I've got a gutfeeling that in the English Championship/League 1/League 2 the home side will win more often than the away team in close games. I would like to investigate it, but I don't know the information to do a good research on it.

[relf]

Re: Close Games Time to reopen this thread! Last season, the selection criteria was to bet on the favoured team in close games (difference of odds less than or equal to 1) in 2 major leagues, Italian Serie A and Spanish Primera. This system started only in January last season, and it achieved 11.7% yield from 91 selections. For this brand new season, I have decided to make some minor tweaks, which hopefully will improve the yield. In addition, I have included the 'dreaded' German Bundesliga, together with Italian Serie A and Spanish Primera. For Italian Serie A: Bet only when the home team is the favoured team in close games. For Spanish Primera: Bet on the favoured team, regardless of home or away, in close games. For German Bundesliga: Bet only when the away team is the favoured team in close games. As for the reason behind the above selection criteria, it's purely due to the results I've gotten from my back-testing.

[Grex]

Re: Close Games Good luck with this, Relf..... especially the :loon German :loon Bundesliga :loon:loon

[jtw1]

Re: Close Games Best of luck relf , will be watching with interest :ok

[relf]

Re: Close Games Leagues in Germany, Italy and Spain still haven't started so there will be no selections this week. By the looks of it, we might have 2 qualifying selections from Bundesliga, which opens next weekend.

[relf]

Re: Close Games

For German Bundesliga: Bet only when the away team is the favoured team in close games.

While Serie A and Primera remain closed, the Bundesliga opens this weekend and we have 2 qualifying selections. Selections for this weekend: 1) Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen - Werder Bremen @ 2.37 2) Mainz vs Stuttgart - Stuttgart @ 2.25 All odds are from Bet365.