relf Posted January 24, 2010 Share Posted January 24, 2010 Hi people, this is my first time posting a system in this thread and I hope it will be good. :hope For the past few weeks, I have been looking at trends and doing some back-testing on various leagues for the past 5 seasons (including this one). I realized that for games that are close, the favourite team in Serie A and Primera tends to win more often than expected. Therefore, in summary, I'm looking at: 1) Games in Italian Serie A and Spanish Primera League only 2) Odds (from Bet365)* between the Home team and Away team is less than or equal to 1 *This is for consistency, since the odds from Bet365 were used during back-testing. As for the staking plan, I have not come up with a good strategy so it will be the same stakes for every match. For simplicity, it will be 1 point per match. Finally, this would be a paper trail system. Any suggestions or constructive feedback would be welcome. Let's hope this works. Selections for this week: 1) Bologna vs Bari - Bologna @ 2.60 2) Livorno vs Napoli - Napoli @ 2.50 3) Palermo vs Fiorentina - Palermo @ 2.40 4) Siena vs Cagliari - Cagliari @ 2.60 5) Inter Milan vs AC Milan - Inter Milan @ 2.50 6) Espanyol vs Mallorca - Espanyol @ 2.37 7) Sporting Gijon vs Racing Santander - Sporting Gijon @ 2.25 8) Getafe vs Atletico Madrid - Getafe @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365. There might be better odds out there, but since this is only a paper trail system, it probably isn't that important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: Close Games Good start so far, beginners' luck I guess. We shall see. Results for this week: 1) Bologna vs Bari - Bologna @ 2.60 - WIN 2) Livorno vs Napoli - Napoli @ 2.50 - WIN 3) Palermo vs Fiorentina - Palermo @ 2.40 - WIN 4) Siena vs Cagliari - Cagliari @ 2.60 - LOSE 5) Inter Milan vs AC Milan - Inter Milan @ 2.50 - WIN 6) Espanyol vs Mallorca - Espanyol @ 2.37 - LOSE 7) Sporting Gijon vs Racing Santander - Sporting Gijon @ 2.25 - LOSE 8) Getafe vs Atletico Madrid - Getafe @ 2.50 - WIN Staked: 8 pts Returns: 12.5 pts Profit: 4.5 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 8 pts Total Returns: 12.5 pts Total Profit: 4.5 pts Yield: 56.3% Strike Rate: 62.5% (5 out of 8) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: Close Games Great start, Relf :clap As a matter of interest, what strike rate / yield did you get over the past 5 seasons ? Also, it would appear that over 40% of matches will fit your selection criteria.... this is a lot. Could you get a better historical return by narrowing the criteria ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: Close Games Thanks Grex for your interest, I hope I'm able to understand your questions as fully as possible. Italian Serie A: 2005/06: Strike Rate: 54/136 (40%), Yield: -7.6% [136 out of 380 fit the criteria - 36%] 2006/07: Strike Rate: 44/118 (37%), Yield: -11.0% [118 out of 380 fit the criteria - 31%] 2007/08: Strike Rate: 56/122 (46%), Yield: 10.4% [122 out of 380 fit the criteria - 32%] 2008/09: Strike Rate: 42/92 (46%), Yield: 10.3% [92 out of 380 fit the criteria - 24%] 2009/10*: Strike Rate: 20/40 (50%), Yield: 22.1% [40 out of 198 fit the criteria - 20%] Spanish Primera: 2005/06: Strike Rate: 29/80 (36%), Yield: -12.3% [80 out of 380 fit the criteria - 21%] 2006/07: Strike Rate: 31/83 (37%), Yield: -8.3% [83 out of 380 fit the criteria - 22%] 2007/08: Strike Rate: 34/74 (46%), Yield: 14.1% [74 out of 380 fit the criteria - 19%] 2008/09: Strike Rate: 39/88 (44%), Yield: 9.5% [88 out of 380 fit the criteria - 23%] 2009/10*: Strike Rate: 22/52 (42%), Yield: 2.7% [52 out of 180 fit the criteria - 29%] *The season 2009/10 is still in progress **My calculations are done to the best of my ability (I can't guarantee there are no mistakes.) I'm not sure if it's a coincidence, but both leagues produced consistent negative yields for 2005/06 and 2006/07, but took a surprising turn to consistent positive yields for 2007/08 and 2008/09. I don't rule out the possibility of random effect, but I feel that the difference in yields were too far apart. I'm wondering if the style/strategies of the teams in these 2 leagues have changed over the seasons, but I'm not totally convinced yet, which explains why this is only a paper trail. From what I see, a strike rate of 42-43% would see us having a profit - based on Bet365 odds. I'm sure experienced punters would have better odds given the variety of bookmakers online. As for selection criteria, judging from the figures during back-testing, I think the number of matches last weekend was just abnormally high. Finally, I forgot to mention that in rare cases when the home and away team share the same odds, no bets will be made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: Close Games Selections for this week: 9) Bari vs Palermo - Bari @ 2.50 10) Cagliari vs Fiorentina - Cagliari @ 2.37 11) Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol @ 2.25 12) Sevilla vs Valencia - Sevilla @ 2.25 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucio Posted January 31, 2010 Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: Close Games Sevilia - Valencia 2-0 min' 84 , this thread is starting to be interesting With this one it would be 3/4 .Altough bad luck with Cagliari Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Thanks for your interest, Lucio. Another profitable weekend. Results for this week: 9) Bari vs Palermo - Bari @ 2.50 - WIN 10) Cagliari vs Fiorentina - Cagliari @ 2.37 - LOSE 11) Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol @ 2.25 - WIN 12) Sevilla vs Valencia - Sevilla @ 2.25 - WIN Staked: 4 pts Returns: 7 pts Profit: 3 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 12 pts Total Returns: 19.5 pts Total Profit: 7.5 pts Yield: 62.5% Strike Rate: 66.7% (8 out of 12) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Excellent results, Relf :clap..... nice to know somebody had a profitable weekend :wall:wall Out of curiosity, I tested your system on the English Premier League...... it certainly did not produce anything positive over the past 8 seasons..... so, stick to Serie A and the Primera Liga ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Thanks, Grex. As a matter of fact, it's a paper trail and I didn't put any money on those matches. But it's always good to know that I could be on the right track. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcus1874 Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Very good start, it's looking positive, good luck for the future :cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Close Games .... As a matter of fact' date=' it's a paper trail and I didn't put any money on those matches.......[/quote'] Ah, that explains the great start...... once you start putting hard cash on your selections, you can guarantee that things will go wrong..... the famous Sod's Law :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Gratz relf, looks good so far. And when your system actually works on weekends that get everybody else to cry, how good will it even be on the better days?! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 2, 2010 Author Share Posted February 2, 2010 Re: Close Games Gratz relf, looks good so far. And when your system actually works on weekends that get everybody else to cry, how good will it even be on the better days?! ;) Well, I don't think it works this way. :loon Every system has its fair share of good and bad days. Who knows, mine could be coming this weekend?? It's a good start, but I'm not carried away by a 62.5% yield from a mere 12 selections. If it's 120 selections, then I'll probably be jumping up and down the whole day. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 6, 2010 Author Share Posted February 6, 2010 Re: Close Games Selections for this week: 13) Siena vs Sampdoria - Siena @ 2.62 14) Udinese vs Napoli - Udinese @ 2.40 15) Fiorentina vs Roma - Fiorentina @ 2.50 16) Malaga vs D Coruna - Malaga @ 2.37 17) Mallorca vs Villarreal - Mallorca @ 2.25 18) Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid - Racing Santander @ 2.40 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: Close Games A slight loss this weekend, but the yield is still impressive (and well above expectations.) Let's hope it's a blip. Results for this week: 13) Siena vs Sampdoria - Siena @ 2.62 - LOSE 14) Udinese vs Napoli - Udinese @ 2.40 - WIN 15) Fiorentina vs Roma - Fiorentina @ 2.50 - LOSE 16) Malaga vs D Coruna - Malaga @ 2.37 - LOSE 17) Mallorca vs Villarreal - Mallorca @ 2.25 - WIN 18) Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid - Racing Santander @ 2.40 - LOSE Staked: 6 pts Returns: 4.65 pts Profit: -1.35 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 18 pts Total Returns: 24.15 pts Total Profit: 6.15 pts Yield: 34.2% Strike Rate: 55.6% (10 out of 18) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: Close Games Excellent results, so far, Relf..... OK, a small loss this weekend, but it still looks promising. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Close Games After a seemingly long break, here we go again! Selections for this week: 19) Sampdoria vs Fiorentina - Sampdoria @ 2.40 20) Livorno vs Bologna - Livorno @ 2.40 21) Parma vs Lazio - Parma @ 2.37 22) Napoli vs Inter Milan - Inter Milan @ 2.30 23) Espanyol vs D Coruna - Espanyol @ 2.30 24) Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza - Valladolid @ 2.25 25) Tenerife vs Mallorca - Tenerife @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Close Games A small profit this week. :D Results for this week: 19) Sampdoria vs Fiorentina - Sampdoria @ 2.40 - WIN 20) Livorno vs Bologna - Livorno @ 2.40 - LOSE 21) Parma vs Lazio - Parma @ 2.37 - LOSE 22) Napoli vs Inter Milan - Inter Milan @ 2.30 - LOSE 23) Espanyol vs D Coruna - Espanyol @ 2.30 - WIN 24) Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza - Valladolid @ 2.25 - LOSE 25) Tenerife vs Mallorca - Tenerife @ 2.50 - WIN Staked: 7 pts Returns: 7.2 pts Profit: 0.2 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 25 pts Total Returns: 31.35 pts Total Profit: 6.35 pts Yield: 25.4% Strike Rate: 52.0% (13 out of 25) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Close Games As our selections reach a quarter of the 100 mark , I did a summary of the performances from the individual leagues, namely Serie A and Primera. Quite a balanced set of results I would say. Here's the breakdown: Italian Serie A Staked: 14 pts Returns: 17.3 pts Profit: 3.3 pts Yield: 23.6% Strike Rate: 50.0% (7 out of 14) Spanish Primera Staked: 11 pts Returns: 14.05 pts Profit: 3.05 pts Yield: 27.7% Strike Rate: 54.5% (6 out of 11) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 20, 2010 Author Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: Close Games Only 2 games this week. Selections for this week: 26) Mallorca vs Sevilla - Mallorca @ 2.50 27) Almeria vs Atletico Madrid - Atletico Madrid @ 2.60 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 20, 2010 Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: Close Games Good luck with these, Relf..... it's a good sign that you are getting very similar success rates with both leagues. BTW, doesn't the AC Milan game qualify for your system?.... the Bet365 odds are 2.90-3.10-2.40 :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 20, 2010 Author Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: Close Games BTW' date= doesn't the AC Milan game qualify for your system?.... the Bet365 odds are 2.90-3.10-2.40 :unsure AC Milan's game with Fiorentina is in the midweek, so I guess I will post them up a later date. Thanks for the reminder though. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 20, 2010 Share Posted February 20, 2010 Re: Close Games Sorry.... didn't notice that :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: Close Games A loss. Results for this week: 26) Mallorca vs Sevilla - Mallorca @ 2.50 - LOSE 27) Almeria vs Atletico Madrid - Atletico Madrid @ 2.60 - LOSE Staked: 2 pts Returns: 0 pts Profit: -2 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 27 pts Total Returns: 31.35 pts Total Profit: 4.35 pts Yield: 16.1% Strike Rate: 48.1% (13 out of 27) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Close Games Here we go again! One selection for the midweek. 28) Fiorentina vs AC Milan - AC Milan @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Close Games Back to winning ways, thanks to 2 late goals from AC Milan. That's it for the midweek, there seems to be a long list of fixtures this weekend. Results for this week: 28) Fiorentina vs AC Milan - AC Milan @ 2.50 - WIN Staked: 1 pts Returns: 2.5 pts Profit: 1.5 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 28 pts Total Returns: 33.85 pts Total Profit: 5.85 pts Yield: 20.9% Strike Rate: 50.0% (14 out of 28) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Close Games 6 matches for this week. :hope Selections for this week: 29) Chievo vs Cagliari - Chievo @ 2.30 30) Napoli vs Roma - Napoli @ 2.40 31) Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna - Sporting Gijon @ 2.37 32) Valladolid vs Mallorca - Valladolid @ 2.37 33) Xerez vs Espanyol - Espanyol @ 2.37 34) Atletico Madrid vs Valencia - Atletico Madrid @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Close Games A small profit this week. :D Results for this week: 29) Chievo vs Cagliari - Chievo @ 2.30 - WIN 30) Napoli vs Roma - Napoli @ 2.40 - LOSE 31) Sporting Gijon vs Osasuna - Sporting Gijon @ 2.37 - WIN 32) Valladolid vs Mallorca - Valladolid @ 2.37 - LOSE 33) Xerez vs Espanyol - Espanyol @ 2.37 - LOSE 34) Atletico Madrid vs Valencia - Atletico Madrid @ 2.50 - WIN Staked: 6 pts Returns: 7.17 pts Profit: 1.17 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 34 pts Total Returns: 41.02 pts Total Profit: 7.02 pts Yield: 20.6% Strike Rate: 50.0% (17 out of 34) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Only a small profit, but still a weekend yield of 19.5%..... better than the bank interest rate :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Close Games Only a small profit, but still a weekend yield of 19.5%..... better than the bank interest rate :loon Much much better. I think the numerical profit of this system is masked by the fact that I use just 1 point for each match. I'm still thinking of a staking strategy/loss-recovery system, but because of the relatively low strike rate, I find that it's dangerous to stake more whenever a loss is encountered. Despite that, I think the strike rate is performing above expectations but let's hope it stays this way till the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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