relf Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: Close Games Decided to post the selections for this weekend early. Once again, we have 6 matches. :hope Selections for this week: 35) Fiorentina vs Juventus - Fiorentina @ 2.50 36) Roma vs AC Milan - Roma @ 2.30 37) Atalanta vs Udinese - Atalanta @ 2.30 38) Bologna vs Napoli - Napoli @ 2.50 39) Espanyol vs Villarreal - Espanyol @ 2.40 40) Real Zaragoza vs Atletico Madrid - Real Zaragoza @ 2.60 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted March 5, 2010 Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: Close Games Much much better. I think the numerical profit of this system is masked by the fact that I use just 1 point for each match. I'm still thinking of a staking strategy/loss-recovery system' date=' but because of the relatively low strike rate, I find that it's dangerous to stake more whenever a loss is encountered. Despite that, I think the strike rate is performing above expectations but let's hope it stays this way till the end of the season.[/quote'] If it works to level stakes, why change? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 6, 2010 Author Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Close Games If it works to level stakes' date=' why change?[/quote'] You are probably right. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Close Games :sad Results for this week: 35) Fiorentina vs Juventus - Fiorentina @ 2.50 - LOSE 36) Roma vs AC Milan - Roma @ 2.30 - LOSE 37) Atalanta vs Udinese - Atalanta @ 2.30 - LOSE 38) Bologna vs Napoli - Napoli @ 2.50 - LOSE 39) Espanyol vs Villarreal - Espanyol @ 2.40 - LOSE 40) Real Zaragoza vs Atletico Madrid - Real Zaragoza @ 2.60 - LOSE Staked: 6 pts Returns: 0 pts Profit: -6 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 40 pts Total Returns: 41.02 pts Total Profit: 1.02 pts Yield: 2.5% Strike Rate: 42.5% (17 out of 40) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 8, 2010 Share Posted March 8, 2010 Re: Close Games Weekends like that are difficult to swallow :puke..... I should know ! Most of your selections this weekend ended in draws.... rather than "backing", perhaps you should consider "laying" the opposition ? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wettspou Posted March 8, 2010 Share Posted March 8, 2010 Re: Close Games Italian Serie A: 2005/06: Strike Rate: 54/136 (40%), Yield: -7.6% [136 out of 380 fit the criteria - 36%] 2006/07: Strike Rate: 44/118 (37%), Yield: -11.0% [118 out of 380 fit the criteria - 31%] 2007/08: Strike Rate: 56/122 (46%), Yield: 10.4% [122 out of 380 fit the criteria - 32%] 2008/09: Strike Rate: 42/92 (46%), Yield: 10.3% [92 out of 380 fit the criteria - 24%] 2009/10*: Strike Rate: 20/40 (50%), Yield: 22.1% [40 out of 198 fit the criteria - 20%] Spanish Primera: 2005/06: Strike Rate: 29/80 (36%), Yield: -12.3% [80 out of 380 fit the criteria - 21%] 2006/07: Strike Rate: 31/83 (37%), Yield: -8.3% [83 out of 380 fit the criteria - 22%] 2007/08: Strike Rate: 34/74 (46%), Yield: 14.1% [74 out of 380 fit the criteria - 19%] 2008/09: Strike Rate: 39/88 (44%), Yield: 9.5% [88 out of 380 fit the criteria - 23%] 2009/10*: Strike Rate: 22/52 (42%), Yield: 2.7% [52 out of 180 fit the criteria - 29%] *The season 2009/10 is still in progress **My calculations are done to the best of my ability (I can't guarantee there are no mistakes.) ....... From what I see, a strike rate of 42-43% would see us having a profit ... As for selection criteria, judging from the figures during back-testing, I think the number of matches last weekend was just abnormally high. Hi Relf, since this is on of my first posts here, I just want to say that I often sound much more direct than I intend to :) But I just don't see this system working... From my point of view, the numbers you posted above and the tendency of the yield % to go up are pure variance and swinging around ~0 % or even -x %. Just take a closer look at the numbers. 74 to 136 selections per year per league ... thats a too small sample to be sure. I'm not an expert in statistics, but my feeling tells me that your confidence intervall for this low sample should be quite wide. You said you need about 42-43% for this system to become profitable. By adding up both leagues from 05/06 to 08/09 you have 329 wins in 793 matches, which is 41,5%. It is good you are papertesting this, but even when papertesting ... shouldn't you try something that has more potential? greets, wettspou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 8, 2010 Share Posted March 8, 2010 Re: Close Games Weekends like that are difficult to swallow :puke..... I should know ! Most of your selections this weekend ended in draws.... rather than "backing", perhaps you should consider "laying" the opposition ? :ok I had just come on to say exactly the same thing! I noted down the selections for this weekend so I could watch your progress & felt sick for you when the results came in! Keep going though, I can sense that you're on to something! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 8, 2010 Author Share Posted March 8, 2010 Re: Close Games Weekends like that are difficult to swallow :puke..... I should know ! Most of your selections this weekend ended in draws.... rather than "backing", perhaps you should consider "laying" the opposition ? :ok Yeah, the games seemed really close this weekend. Laying the opposition might be an option, but the odds will be short. I have not done the back-testing for it, so I'm not sure if it would be more profitable in the long run. For the time being, I shall stick with this since this is what I back-tested. Meanwhile, I would strongly discourage anyone from following the selections. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 8, 2010 Author Share Posted March 8, 2010 Re: Close Games Hi Relf, since this is on of my first posts here, I just want to say that I often sound much more direct than I intend to :) But I just don't see this system working... From my point of view, the numbers you posted above and the tendency of the yield % to go up are pure variance and swinging around ~0 % or even -x %. Just take a closer look at the numbers. 74 to 136 selections per year per league ... thats a too small sample to be sure. I'm not an expert in statistics, but my feeling tells me that your confidence intervall for this low sample should be quite wide. You said you need about 42-43% for this system to become profitable. By adding up both leagues from 05/06 to 08/09 you have 329 wins in 793 matches, which is 41,5%. It is good you are papertesting this, but even when papertesting ... shouldn't you try something that has more potential? greets, wettspou Hi wettspou, thanks for your input. I don't disagree with you that the confidence interval is too large given the small sample size, which will mean that the numbers are purely due to variance. One way to increase the sample size could be to dig up statistics from up to 10 years, or even 15 years, but personally, I have doubts about the accuracy of the statistics that are way too back. After all, teams get relegated and new teams are promoted every season, and coupled with takeovers and other external factors, I don't think it's right to assume independence across seasons that are more than 5 years apart. Well, that's just my personal opinion. So my main motivation for testing this system, is because I see a positive trend for both leagues for the past 2 seasons. Of course, it's 100% logical to attribute it to variance, but I think that there's a small chance that it's not. Thus I believe this system has potential, and I hope I'm right come May. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 8, 2010 Author Share Posted March 8, 2010 Re: Close Games I had just come on to say exactly the same thing! I noted down the selections for this weekend so I could watch your progress & felt sick for you when the results came in! Keep going though' date=' I can sense that you're on to something![/quote'] Thanks Bedlam! It's really heartening to see such comments at times like this. :D On the positive side, the yield is still positive and hopefully it will stay this way. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: Close Games We return after a disastrous weekend last week... Selections for this week: 41) Bologna vs Sampdoria - Bologna @ 2.50 42) Udinese vs Palermo - Udinese @ 2.30 43) Sporting Gijon vs Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Gijon @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Close Games Much better than last week, but still a loss. Amazingly, the current yield is still a positive 0.7%. Results for this week: 41) Bologna vs Sampdoria - Bologna @ 2.50 - LOSE 42) Udinese vs Palermo - Udinese @ 2.30 - WIN 43) Sporting Gijon vs Athletic Bilbao - Sporting Gijon @ 2.50 - LOSE Staked: 3 pts Returns: 2.3 pts Profit: -0.7 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 43 pts Total Returns: 43.32 pts Total Profit: 0.32 pts Yield: 0.7% Strike Rate: 41.9% (18 out of 43) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 20, 2010 Author Share Posted March 20, 2010 Re: Close Games Selections for this week: 44) Sampdoria vs Juventus - Sampdoria @ 2.50 45) Xerez vs Tenerife - Xerez @ 2.50 46) Espanyol vs Sevilla - Sevilla @ 2.25 47) Malaga vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.50 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 22, 2010 Author Share Posted March 22, 2010 Re: Close Games A good weekend, steering clear of the negative region. Results for this week: 44) Sampdoria vs Juventus - Sampdoria @ 2.50 - WIN 45) Xerez vs Tenerife - Xerez @ 2.50 - WIN 46) Espanyol vs Sevilla - Sevilla @ 2.25 - LOSE 47) Malaga vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.50 - LOSE Staked: 4 pts Returns: 5 pts Profit: 1 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 47 pts Total Returns: 48.32 pts Total Profit: 1.32 pts Yield: 2.8% Strike Rate: 42.6% (20 out of 47) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 22, 2010 Author Share Posted March 22, 2010 Re: Close Games Would this week be the make-or-break week? :hope Selections for this week: 48) Bari vs Sampdoria - Bari @ 2.50 49) Catania vs Fiorentina - Fiorentina @ 2.50 50) Napoli vs Juventus - Napoli @ 2.45 51) Sporting Gijon vs D Coruna - Sporting Gijon @ 2.40 52) Racing Santander vs Mallorca - Racing Santander @ 2.35 53) Tenerife vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.40 54) Valladolid vs Espanyol - Valladolid @ 2.25 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 25, 2010 Author Share Posted March 25, 2010 Re: Close Games A small profit means the yield continues to stay positive. Results for this week: 48) Bari vs Sampdoria - Bari @ 2.50 - WIN 49) Catania vs Fiorentina - Fiorentina @ 2.50 - LOSE 50) Napoli vs Juventus - Napoli @ 2.45 - WIN 51) Sporting Gijon vs D Coruna - Sporting Gijon @ 2.40 - WIN 52) Racing Santander vs Mallorca - Racing Santander @ 2.35 - LOSE 53) Tenerife vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.40 - LOSE 54) Valladolid vs Espanyol - Valladolid @ 2.25 - LOSE Staked: 7 pts Returns: 7.35 pts Profit: 0.35 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 54 pts Total Returns: 55.67 pts Total Profit: 1.67 pts Yield: 3.1% Strike Rate: 42.6% (23 out of 54) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 27, 2010 Author Share Posted March 27, 2010 Re: Close Games Selections for this week: 55) Roma vs Inter Milan - Roma @ 2.62 56) Siena vs Genoa - Siena @ 2.50 57) Real Zaragoza vs Valencia - Valencia @ 2.37 58) Villarreal vs Sevilla - Villarreal @ 2.25 59) Xerez vs Valladolid - Xerez @ 2.37 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: Close Games I think you got 3 out of 5, Relf :clap :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 29, 2010 Author Share Posted March 29, 2010 Re: Close Games You are right, Grex. It's probably one of the best strike rates we have had for quite some time. Results for this week: 55) Roma vs Inter Milan - Roma @ 2.62 - WIN 56) Siena vs Genoa - Siena @ 2.50 - LOSE 57) Real Zaragoza vs Valencia - Valencia @ 2.37 - LOSE 58) Villarreal vs Sevilla - Villarreal @ 2.25 - WIN 59) Xerez vs Valladolid - Xerez @ 2.37 - WIN Staked: 5 pts Returns: 7.24 pts Profit: 2.24 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 59 pts Total Returns: 62.91 pts Total Profit: 3.91 pts Yield: 6.6% Strike Rate: 44.1% (26 out of 59) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 3, 2010 Author Share Posted April 3, 2010 Re: Close Games We have 3 home and 3 away teams this weekend, unlike the usual high proportion of home team being the favourites. Anyway, even though Catania vs Palermo odds (3.20-2.00-3.50) fit the criteria, I'm not including it due to the 'skewed' odds. Selections for this week: 60) Chievo vs Sampdoria - Sampdoria @ 2.50 61) Lazio vs Napoli - Lazio @ 2.40 62) Parma vs Fiorentina - Fiorentina @ 2.40 63) Udinese vs Juventus - Udinese @ 2.62 64) Almeria vs Mallorca - Almeria @ 2.40 65) Valladolid vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.40 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 5, 2010 Author Share Posted April 5, 2010 Re: Close Games That's 4 profitable weeks in a row. Since this is only a paper trail, I will probably let it run till the end of the season, unless something drastic happens. Results for this week: 60) Chievo vs Sampdoria - Sampdoria @ 2.50 - WIN 61) Lazio vs Napoli - Lazio @ 2.40 - LOSE 62) Parma vs Fiorentina - Fiorentina @ 2.40 - LOSE 63) Udinese vs Juventus - Udinese @ 2.62 - WIN 64) Almeria vs Mallorca - Almeria @ 2.40 - LOSE 65) Valladolid vs Villarreal - Villarreal @ 2.40 - WIN Staked: 6 pts Returns: 7.52 pts Profit: 1.52 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 65 pts Total Returns: 70.43 pts Total Profit: 5.43 pts Yield: 8.4% Strike Rate: 44.6% (29 out of 65) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 5, 2010 Share Posted April 5, 2010 Re: Close Games Good results, Relf.... and a very respectable overall yield :clap Nice to know that somebody intends to stick with their system until the bitter end of the season ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 5, 2010 Share Posted April 5, 2010 Re: Close Games Very nice going. Hope it continues to end of season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted April 5, 2010 Share Posted April 5, 2010 Re: Close Games Going great so far, keep it up mate. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 10, 2010 Author Share Posted April 10, 2010 Re: Close Games Thanks for the encouraging comments. This weekend, we have 6 matches - 5 coming from the Primera, including the El Clasico. Selections for this week: 66) Livorno vs Udinese - Udinese @ 2.40 67) Xerez vs Getafe - Getafe @ 2.50 68) Real Madrid vs Barcelona - Real Madrid @ 2.50 69) Osasuna vs Real Zaragoza - Osasuna @ 2.25 70) Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid - Espanyol @ 2.5 71) Mallorca vs Valencia - Mallorca @ 2.37 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 12, 2010 Author Share Posted April 12, 2010 Re: Close Games 5 out of 6! A substantial yield of more than 100% this week! Results for this week: 66) Livorno vs Udinese - Udinese @ 2.40 - WIN 67) Xerez vs Getafe - Getafe @ 2.50 - WIN 68) Real Madrid vs Barcelona - Real Madrid @ 2.50 - LOSE 69) Osasuna vs Real Zaragoza - Osasuna @ 2.25 - WIN 70) Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid - Espanyol @ 2.5 - WIN 71) Mallorca vs Valencia - Mallorca @ 2.37 - WIN Staked: 6 pts Returns: 12.02 pts Profit: 6.02 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 71 pts Total Returns: 82.45 pts Total Profit: 11.45 pts Yield: 16.1% Strike Rate: 47.9% (34 out of 71) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 12, 2010 Share Posted April 12, 2010 Re: Close Games Well done, Relf :cheers...... this is obviously a system that defies the normal end-of-season down-turn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 13, 2010 Author Share Posted April 13, 2010 Re: Close Games It's probably too early to tell if this system is immune to the end-of-season downturn. Ever since the 0-out-of-6 weekend, anything could happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 13, 2010 Author Share Posted April 13, 2010 Re: Close Games Here we go again! Selections for this week: 72) Getafe vs Villarreal - Getafe @ 2.50 73) Real Zaragoza vs Mallorca - Real Zaragoza @ 2.20 All odds are from Bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 15, 2010 Author Share Posted April 15, 2010 Re: Close Games That's 6 profitable weekends/midweeks! Results for this week: 72) Getafe vs Villarreal - Getafe @ 2.50 - WIN 73) Real Zaragoza vs Mallorca - Real Zaragoza @ 2.20 - LOSE Staked: 2 pts Returns: 2.5 pts Profit: 0.5 pts --- Overall Total Staked: 73 pts Total Returns: 84.95 pts Total Profit: 11.95 pts Yield: 16.4% Strike Rate: 47.9% (35 out of 73) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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