Matthew Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hey jtw1, Is there a historic database of goonersguide and H2H ratings anywhere? Had little success looking for one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hey jtw1, Is there a historic database of goonersguide and H2H ratings anywhere? Had little success looking for one. None that i'm aware of Mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Football ratings system None that i'm aware of Mate Hhhmm shame. Would be good to test them over a significant period of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 25, 2010 Author Share Posted October 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system This is the story so far this season ... ** MAN U v liverpool Gooners = 174 , h2h = 4.00 odds = 1.7 3-2 :loon ***ARSENAL v west brom - Gooners = +230 , h2h = 6.25, odds = 1.22 2-3 **LIVERPOOL v sunderland - Gooners = +186 , h2h = 3.25 , odds = 1.44 2-2 **levante v REAL MADRID - -177 , -4.25 , odds = 1.25 0-0 *ath bilbao v BARCELONA - -128 , -3.25 , odds = 1.57 0-2 :loon *MALLORCA v sociedad - +135 , +3.50 , odds = 2.05 2-0 :loon *hercules v SEVILLE - -104 , -6.00 , odds = 2.2 2-0 ***REAL MADRID v deportivo , Gooners - 202 , h2h - 4.25 , odds = 1.16 6-1 :loon **MAN U v west brom Gooners +228 , h2h +3.50 , odds = 1.25 2-2 ***MALLORCA v espanyol Gooners +203 , h2h +5.50 , odds = 1.9 0-1 *malaga v REAL MADRID Gooners -154 , h2h -3.50 , odds - 1.36 1-4 :loon ***CHELSEA v wolves Gooners 308 , h2h 5.13 , win - 1.12 , Over 2.5 - 1.37 , -1 handicap = 1.44 2-0 :loon **REAL MADRID v r santander 188 , 3.83 , win - 1.12 , Over 1.4 , -1 = 1.44 6-1 :loon *VALENCIA v mallorca 130 , 3.33 , win - 1.53 , Over 1.8 , -1 = 2.7 0-1 ***zaragoza v BARCELONA -183 , -4.33 , win 1.25 , Over 1.53 , -1 = 1.72 0-2 :loon *GETAFE v sp gijon 107 , 3.00 , win 1.72 , Over - 2.05 , -1 = 3.3 3-0 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 30, 2010 Author Share Posted October 30, 2010 Re: Football ratings system *W BREMEN v nurnberg +3.00 , +143 , Win = 1.5 , Overs = 1.5 , -1 = 2.3 **ROMA v lecce +4.00 , + 163 , win = 1.36 , Overs = 1.7 , -1 = 2.05 *ASTON VILLA v b'ham +3.13 , +100 , win = 1.8 , Overs = 2.1 , -1 = 3.1 Bet 12 - 10pt W BREMEN to beat the -1 goal handicap as they have done this 6 times from 8 corresponding fixtures v Nurnberg . Bet 13 - 10pts Double ROMA to end OVER 2.5 Goals [ this has occured 7/8 times] and ASTON VILLA to win outright Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 31, 2010 Author Share Posted October 31, 2010 Re: Football ratings system *W BREMEN v nurnberg 2-3 **ROMA v lecce 2-0 *ASTON VILLA v b'ham 0-0 Bet 12 - 10pt W BREMEN to beat the -1 goal handicap as they have done this 6 times from 8 corresponding fixtures v Nurnberg . 10PT loss Bet 13 - 10pts Double ROMA to end OVER 2.5 Goals [ this has occured 7/8 times] and ASTON VILLA to win outright . 10pt loss Starting Bank - 100pts Current Bank - 43.70pts OK , We have a problem here to which i can only see 2 answers 1 - Those results from last season were just 'lUCK' and overall the system is pants . 2 - As has been pointed out elsewhere it's quite possible that every league needs around 12 or more games to settle and this gives the 'ratings' time to settle as well . I'm hoping the latter is the case , so what i'm proposing is to keep posting the selections but NO MONEY will be placed UNTIL they start to show that the results we seen last season start appearing. I'll review everything after 4 weeks and see whats happening .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 2, 2010 Share Posted November 2, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Oh I should mention that the above two tables are for the English Premier League only......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 4, 2010 Author Share Posted November 4, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Cheers Matthew , thats a fair amount of work :ok Certainly shows how successful the ratings are in the EPL . Heres this weekends selections [for reference only , at least for me :D] ***MAN U v wolves +216 , 4.75 . Win - 1.22 , Over - 1.6 , -1 = 1.61 SUNDERLAND v stoke +100 , 3.00. Win - 2.1 , 2.37 , 4.5. BOLOGNA v leece +106 , 3.13 . Win - 1.85 , 2.05 , 3.8. SAMPDORIA v catania +108 , 3.00 . Win - 1.8 , 2.25 , 4.0 VILLREAL v ath bilbao +143 , 3.63. Win - 1.8 , 1.7 , 3.2. ***REAL MADRID v ath madrid +228 , 3.25. Win - 1.28 , 1.4 , 1.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 8, 2010 Author Share Posted November 8, 2010 Re: Football ratings system A glimpse of better times ahead or a false dawn ?? ***MAN U v wolves +216 , 4.75 . Win - 1.22 , Over - 1.6 , -1 = 1.61 2-1:loon SUNDERLAND v stoke +100 , 3.00. Win - 2.1 , 2.37 , 4.5. 2-0 :loon BOLOGNA v leece +106 , 3.13 . Win - 1.85 , 2.05 , 3.8. 2-0 :loon SAMPDORIA v catania +108 , 3.00 . Win - 1.8 , 2.25 , 4.0 0-0 VILLREAL v ath bilbao +143 , 3.63. Win - 1.8 , 1.7 , 3.2. 4-1 :loon ***REAL MADRID v ath madrid +228 , 3.25. Win - 1.28 , 1.4 , 1.9 2-0 :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 9, 2010 Author Share Posted November 9, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Weds - CHELSEA v fulham +274 +3.38 . Win - 1.2 , Over - 1.57 , -1 = 1.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 9, 2010 Share Posted November 9, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Cheers Matthew , thats a fair amount of work :ok Certainly shows how successful the ratings are in the EPL. Glad you found it of use. Not sure I share your view on the second point. Limited profits available at the very extremes of the ratings only. I don't suppose you have a view on the calculation of this rating do you. I've found in the past that ratings of mediocre use in the top flight are actually rather useful in the lower leagues. I'd like to see whether GG rating is of use in the lower leagues of English football. It is clearly an ELO rating where each team has an independent rating for home and away. The match attracts a certain value, draws tend to be lower with a 6-0 win attracting a value not that much greater than an expected 3-0 win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted November 10, 2010 Share Posted November 10, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 10, 2010 Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi Dumyat, Perhaps you can help me to find out where I have gone wrong. Data from Aug 2000 to May 2010. 3,800 matches assessed. Only 105 matches match the criteria of: Rating >= 100 & HW Odds >= 1.70 or Rating >= 120 & HW Odds >= 1.65 or Rating >= 140 & HW Odds >= 1.60 or Rating >= 160 & HW Odds >= 1.55 or Rating >= 180 & HW Odds >= 1.50 or Rating >= 200 & HW Odds >= 1.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 10, 2010 Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Remove the odds filter and things might get more recognisable: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 10, 2010 Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system more info: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted November 10, 2010 Share Posted November 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Is this a classic example of finding a ratings system that has a certain strike rate, then summising that if you bet at odds that suggest a team has a smaller %age chance of winning than the "profile" suggests, you'll find a profit. I expect a lot of people read the article on football-data.co.uk and end up doing this sort of thing, which is doomed from the outset. Betting at odds >= 1.70 where Gooners Guide match rating is +100 will return a loss, allbeit not horrific, samples are small. You'd be better off backing the draw!!! (double digit yield available) NB: I've used avg home odds to get a view, it would look better with max hw odds, but not much better. I don't wish to bring doom and gloom, just analytical rigour and a fresh perspective from a powerful dataset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted November 11, 2010 Share Posted November 11, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Is this a classic example of finding a ratings system that has a certain strike rate, then summising that if you bet at odds that suggest a team has a smaller %age chance of winning than the "profile" suggests, you'll find a profit. Yes, it probably is! There were 425 examples of matches where the home was 100 or more gooner points superior in the sample I used. If you mindlessly backed each at the football-data best price to return 100 - then your stakes were 30163 and it returned 31500. 4% edge just by spotting the number 100 and picking best price. How does it perform when you take it back to 2000. When you try and "improve" the bets by selecting the ones with a theory edge at the prices the return actually goes down. ********** Gooner himself uses previous rating gaps and the number of observed matches in that previous situation as a way of picking his most likely winners and theory edges. There is good discussion with gooner contributions here on how the numbers perform http://mboard.infopop.cc/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/2486088531/m/376104405 *********** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Good discuusion lads :ok CHELSEA v fulham 1-0 :loon 3 games this weekend , 2 obvious and 1 not-so *MAN CITY v birmingham +136 , +3.00. Win - 1.4 , Over 1.8 , -1 = 2.2. **CHELSEA v sunderland +276 , +3.25. Win - 1.22 , 1.57 , 1.61. *UDINESE v lecce +122 , +3.25 . win - 1.6 , 2.05 , 2.6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Re: Football ratings system A false dawn it was then :sad *MAN CITY v birmingham 0-0 **CHELSEA v sunderland 0-3 *UDINESE v lecce 4-0 :ok There is a small light in the tunnel however ;) Taking all those selections for this season [homes only], where the odds for the -1 Handicap are OVER 2.00 , we have a profit of 115pts. The -1 market certainly showed an overall profit for the half season of 2009/2010 and there may be something in following those games where at least double the stake is returned . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 Re: Football ratings system **NURNBURG v k'lautern +99 , +5.75 . Win - 1.9 , Over - 1.85 , -1 = 3.75 **MAN U v wigan +239 , +3.5 . Win - 1.22 , 1.53 , 1.61. **almeria v BARCELONA -203 , -3.63 . Win - 1.25 , 1.57 , 1.66. ***REAL MADRID v ath bilbao +247 , + 4.5 . Win - 1.16 , 1.42 , 1.5. Sun ---- *CATANIA v bari +121 ,+3.00 . Win - 1.61 , 2.2 , 2.8. **ESPANYOL v hercules +100 , +4.38 . Win -1.9 , 2.2 , 3.75 Keep an eye on those -1 odds for NURNBURG , CATANIA and ESPANYOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi JTW1 - good luck with the weekend selections. Not sure but you may have missed one as Osasuna looks like it is a qualifier with +123 and 3.88. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Thanks to Davidc for pointing out the OSASUNA game was a qualifier :ok **NURNBURG v k'lautern 1-3 **MAN U v wigan 2-0 :loon **almeria v BARCELONA 0-8 :loon ***REAL MADRID v ath bilbao 5-1 :loon *CATANIA v bari 1-0 :loon **ESPANYOL v hercules 3-0 :loon *OSASUNA v s gijon 1-0 :loon Once more a decent set of results , only one game with odds over 2.00 for the Handicap came in . Things are starting to go the right way [just] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Re: Football ratings system MAN U v blackburn +193 , +3.25 . Win - 1.25 , Over - 1.6 , -1 = 1.8 ATH MADRID v espanyol +147 , +3.13 . 1.61 , 1.8 , 2.87. ATH BILBAO v osasuna +117 , +3.75 . 1.72 , 1.95 , 3.1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Re: Football ratings system MAN U v blackburn 7-1 :loon ATH MADRID v espanyol 2-3 ATH BILBAO v osasuna 1-0 :loon Ok , a 3-timer would have been nice but i think next weekend could see the start of 'real' money bets being considered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Re: Football ratings system *AC MILAN v brescia +134 , +3.13. Win - 1.25 , Over - 1.7 , -1 = 1.9. **REAL MADRID v valencia +186 , +3.25 . 1.4 , 1.47 , 2.1. *SAMPDORIA v bari +130 , +3.0 . 1.66 , 2.25 , 3.0. **ESPANYOL v s gijon +132 , +4.38. 1.61 , 1.94 , 2.75. **VILLAREAL v seville +115 , +4.13. 1.83 , 1.87 , 3.0. In an effort to try and identify any 'weak' selections i'm going to use the 'trend' part of www.statto.com which is another ratings website but it's not the actual ratings i'm intesested in , it's the Trend, either positive or negative that we'll use . For instance in the AC v Brescia match , AC have positive [blue] trend of +8 in the league while Brescia have a negative [red] trend of -8 making the difference in trends of 16pts. http://www.statto.com/football...atings/italy/serie-a So ideally we're looking for the home team to have a Blue[+] trend and the away team to have a red [-] trend and the bigger the number between both trends the better. This week - AC [+] brescia [-] , diff = 16. REAL [neither] Valencia [neither] , diff = 1. SAMP [neither] Bari [-] , diff = 11. ESPANYOL [+] S Gijon [-] , diff = 16. VILLAREAL [+] Seville [-] , diff = 11. I'll give this s trial for a few weeks and see if it's of any use or not. AC Milan should beat Brescia [ ;)] while Real Madrid will surely come out with all guns blazing after their humiliation in Barcelona on Monday . This weekends 1st bet is AC Milan and Real both to win , 10pt double @ 1.25 and 1.4 respectively Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Forgot to post bet 2 which was 10pt stright win on SAMP [3-0 ] Bet 3 is 10pts on ESPANYOL with a -1 handicap @ 2.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Bet 4 - 10pt win VILLAREAL @ 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Re: Football ratings system *AC MILAN v brescia 2-1 :loon **REAL MADRID v valencia 2-0 :loon *SAMPDORIA v bari 3-0 :loon **ESPANYOL v s gijon 1-0 :loon **VILLAREAL v seville 1-0 :loon Bet 1 - +7.50pts Bet 2 - +6.60pts Bet 3 - -10pts Bet 4 - +7.50pts Starting Bank - 100pts Current Bank - 55.30pts I think the 'trend's were worth taking into account as Real only scored after Valencia were reduced to 10 men and Espanyol were unfortunate to be reduced to 10 while still managing to defeat Gijon but not beating the Handicap . Lets hope these results keep going our way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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