Dumyat Posted April 12, 2010 Share Posted April 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Dumyat, how did you calculate the H and A ratings? Are these Gooner's? thanks, onionbaj Unfortunately my web skills dont allow any smart grabs from the Gooner's site - so I'm afraid it was just a tedious hour spent on H2H finding all matches that season with a 3 or more home edge - then sorting the file in team and date order and then going through gooner site to see what was the gooner rating on these games. If you look at any team on gooner site you can keep clicking backwards in time to eventually get all the ratings - so some web savvy person should prob be able to automate the task. I can only answer for the H2H performance that season since saved time by not noting down all the gooner figures if H2H less than 3. There were 58 matches with a HTH of 3 or more to the home - the return was 57.7. So a slight loser but significantly better than a pin. The prices are max bookie home prices from football-data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onionbaj Posted April 12, 2010 Share Posted April 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Thanks for responding dumyat. I guess a script could be written to extract the relevant data from the html on Gooner's site. I don't really want to go down this route because I'm building my own database with a view to modelling/back testing various strategies - including those presented in this forum. If I rely on, say Gooner, then discover what jtw1 has uncovered here turns out to be a good earning system, I don't want to be dependant on sites that could one day cease to exist. Especially if I move to becoming a career football investor!! Ideally the data I use should be that which is freely available, results and betting data. I can then replicate various Rating systems in the database, including Gooners, then mix and match them - like has jtw1 done here - to test long term profitability. thanks, onionb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 15, 2010 Author Share Posted April 15, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Thursday valencia v ath bilbao +.131 +3.25 , odds 1.57, over 1.66 - 1 = 2.7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dumyat Posted April 16, 2010 Share Posted April 16, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 16, 2010 Author Share Posted April 16, 2010 Re: Football ratings system SP GIJON 0-2 BARCELONA 3-0 :loon VALENCIA 2-0 :loon First of all i'd like to apologise as i am apt to do with these things as i have made a hash of the Profits totals , after being made aware and double /triple checking these are the correct figures up to today [16th April] Main system - +150.60 pts Over 2.5 - +6.70 pts -1 Handicap - 84.20 pts As you can see the -1 totals were wildly askew but :hope i will attempt keep on top for the remaining weeks of the season , and so to this weekend - Sat --- BIRMINGHAM v hull +133 , +3.63 , odds - 1.72 , Over - 2.02 , -1 = 3.1. SUNDERLAND v burnley +130 , +3.75 , odds - 1.61 , Over - 1.77 , -1 = 2.75 Sun ---- DORTMUND v hoffenheim +101 , +3.63 , odds - 1.57 , Over - 1.9 , -1 = 2.7 ATH BILBAO v zaragoza +134 , +3.00 , odds - 1.8 , Over - 1.95 , -1 = 3.3 REAL MADRID v valencia +158 , +4.50 , odds - 1.4 , Over - 1.39 , -1 = 2.2 Mon ---- LIVERPOOL v w ham +149 , +3.50 , odds - 1.36 , Over - 1.73 , -1 = 2.05 MALLORCA v osasuna +141 , +4.25 , odds - 1.61 , Over - 2.07 , -1 = 2.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Football ratings system birmingham v hull 0-0 :eyes sunderland v burnley 2-1 :loon dortmund v hoffenheim 1-1 :eyes a bilbao v zaragoza 0-0 :eyes real madrid v velencia 2-0 :loon liverpool v west ham 3-0 :loon mallorca v osasuna 2-0 :loon main system = +140.40 pts. over 2.5 = -28.30 pts. -1 handicap = +83.75 pts. As we approach the end of the season you can get some strange results and it may well play to lower stakes or be selective [ or both ] Used to run a successful thread regarding Under 2.5 and noticed that things went astray around about now . One thing i will be keeping an eye on is the Overs' results as i'd be surprised if they finished in the negative come end of season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 23, 2010 Author Share Posted April 23, 2010 Re: Football ratings system EVERTON v fulham +3.38 , +129 , odds - 1.4 , Over - 2.02 -1 = 2.1 INTER v atalanta +4.13 , +190 , odds - 1.25 , 1.65 , 1.83. VALENCIA v deportivo +4.75 , +162 , odds - 1.4 , 1.72 , 2.2. UDINESE v siena +3.00 , +101 , odds - 1.66 , 1.8 , 3.1. MALLORCA v malaga +3.75 , +129 , odds - 1.5 , 1.97 , 2.4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillStar Posted April 24, 2010 Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Football ratings system EVERTON v fulham +3.38 , +129 , odds - 1.4 , Over - 2.02 -1 = 2.1 INTER v atalanta +4.13 , +190 , odds - 1.25 , 1.65 , 1.83. VALENCIA v deportivo +4.75 , +162 , odds - 1.4 , 1.72 , 2.2. UDINESE v siena +3.00 , +101 , odds - 1.66 , 1.8 , 3.1. MALLORCA v malaga +3.75 , +129 , odds - 1.5 , 1.97 , 2.4. I think EVERTON, INTER, and UDINESE can beat the -1 handi, with the first 2 teams at higher probability. VALENCIA probably a marginal win, and I reserve for MALLORA... Let's see :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 26, 2010 Author Share Posted April 26, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hope you profited Hillstar :hope EVERTON 2-1 :loon INTER 3-1 :loon VALENCIA 1-0 :loon UDINESE 4-1 :loon MALLORCA 1-1 :sad Main system - +147.50pts Over 2.5 goals - -23.30pts -1 Handicap - +82.85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dieberiz Posted April 28, 2010 Share Posted April 28, 2010 Re: Football ratings system These did not understand the system. Maybe someone will explain more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted April 29, 2010 Author Share Posted April 29, 2010 Re: Football ratings system One of these weeks where we could actually lose money if we 'only' get 5 out of 6 !!! , such are the very short odds on offer . B MUNICH v bochum +3.00 , +175 , odds - 1.12 , Over - 1.27 , -1 = 1.44. STUTTGART v mainz +3.00 , +129 , odds - 1.33 , 1.53 , 1.95. SPURS v bolton +3.75 , +152 , odds - 1.28 , 1.55 , 1.83. SAMPDORIA v livorno +4.13 , +180 , odds - 1.12 , 1.6 , 1.5. R MADRID v osasuna +3.75 , +186 , odds - 1.12 , 1.34 , 1.44. WIGAN v hull +3.13 , +102 , odds - 1.8 , 1.95 , 3.3 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillStar Posted April 30, 2010 Share Posted April 30, 2010 Re: Football ratings system One of these weeks where we could actually lose money if we 'only' get 5 out of 6 !!! , such are the very short odds on offer . B MUNICH v bochum +3.00 , +175 , odds - 1.12 , Over - 1.27 , -1 = 1.44. STUTTGART v mainz +3.00 , +129 , odds - 1.33 , 1.53 , 1.95. SPURS v bolton +3.75 , +152 , odds - 1.28 , 1.55 , 1.83. SAMPDORIA v livorno +4.13 , +180 , odds - 1.12 , 1.6 , 1.5. R MADRID v osasuna +3.75 , +186 , odds - 1.12 , 1.34 , 1.44. WIGAN v hull +3.13 , +102 , odds - 1.8 , 1.95 , 3.3 . My view is: Wary of Sampdoria... Not a sure win for them... Wigan is too difficult to say... Others can win, just not quite sure if Bayern can break the -1 handi, after the tense ECL game... :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 3, 2010 Author Share Posted May 3, 2010 Re: Football ratings system B MUNICH v bochum 3-1 :loon STUTTGART v mainz 2-2 SPURS v bolton 1-0 :loon SAMPDORIA v livorno 2-0 :loon R MADRID v osasuna 3-2 :loon WIGAN v hull 2-2 4/6 means a loss for the main system as it was the 2 highest odds games that drew :eyes Main system = +143.91 pts Over 2.5 goals = -22.40pts -1 goal handicap = +52.25pts Theres a full Spanish programme over Tues/weds but the only game that may interest us is OSASUNA who are rated 4.25 on h2h. Waiting for Gooners Numbers to see if they are a selection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 7, 2010 Author Share Posted May 7, 2010 Re: Football ratings system FIORENTINA v siena +83 , +3.13 - Odds 1.36 , Over - 1.59 , -1 = 2.1 NAPOLI v atalanta +83 , +3.38 - 1.44 , 1.8 , 2.5. ARSENAL v fulham +145 , +3.75 - 1.2 , 1.42 , 1.57. CHELSEA v wigan +278 , +5.25 - 1.10 , 1.36 , 1.33 . REAL MADRID v ath bilbao +178 , +3.13 - 1.11 , 1.3 , 1.4. Strange to see the top 2 only rated +83 but Gooner highlights them so thats good enough for me . Some very short odds again this week but thats to be expected at this point of the season . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 9, 2010 Author Share Posted May 9, 2010 Re: Football ratings system FIORENTINA v siena 1-1 NAPOLI v atalanta 2-0 :loon ARSENAL v fulham 4-0 :loon CHELSEA v wigan 8-0 :loon REAL MADRID v ath bilbao 5-1 :loon Main system = +142.41pts Over 2.5 = -32.20pts -1 handicap = +70.25pts Thats the EPL and Bundesliga finished just the Spanish and Italian leagues left for next week . After next weeks results i'll take a look back and see where [if] we can improve the system , i'm not surprised in the least that things slowed down significantly over the past 2/3 weeks as the leagues came to an end as the odds started to contract severely . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 15, 2010 Author Share Posted May 15, 2010 Re: Football ratings system The last week of the season :sad chievo v ROMA -3.13 , -87 , odds - 1.4 , Over - 1.33 , -1 = 2.18. VALENCIA v tenerife +3.88 , +217 , 2.20 , 1.46 , 4.33 . Both games are on Sunday . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted May 15, 2010 Share Posted May 15, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Will follow this with interest next season:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 17, 2010 Author Share Posted May 17, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Nice to finish with a flourish :cheers ROMA 2-0 :loon VALENCIA 1-0 :loon Main system - +158.41pts Over 2.5 - -38.90pts -1 Handicap - +72.05pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 23, 2010 Author Share Posted May 23, 2010 Re: Football ratings system There were 111 selections of which 87 won . There were also 97 matches which finished OVER 1.5 and of those 14 that didn't , no less than 8 were played in the last 4 weeks of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted May 30, 2010 Share Posted May 30, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Great stuff jtw1 Which rating do you perceive to have the most to do with your success? H2HStats or GoonersGuide? I've had a look at both sites but didn't find much about the profiability of either rating in isolation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted May 31, 2010 Author Share Posted May 31, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Will be having a more in-depth look at the results this week but my initial suspicions are that Gooners guide might be the more 'reliable' of the 2 , but as i say thats only a feeling . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
one ball bill Posted June 9, 2010 Share Posted June 9, 2010 Re: Football ratings system anybody having trouble getting on to goonersguide been told web page can't be found:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 9, 2010 Author Share Posted June 9, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Just tried it mate and got in no bother ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 21, 2010 Author Share Posted June 21, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Ok lets have a wee look at where the winners/losers came from . GOONERS Numbers - Only 2 losers were rated above 138 , the majority [17] were rated between 83 and 129 . The other 2 were rated 175 and 170 . Of the 11 that had a single figure rating , only 5 won. ALL 9 rated 199+ won . 7/8 rated 180-198 won. 3/5 aways won. Summary - Obviously the higher the number the better the chance of a win The odds for those rated 199+ ranged from 1.10 up to 2.20 [the 2.20 was exceptional as it was a match in the last week of the Spanish Primera where the home team announced and played a 'weaker' side but still managed a win . There were 6 losers who had single figures and a further who were rated 101 + 102 so there could be an advantage in eliminating those rated under a certain number , say 102 for example . H2H Ratings - An impressive 29 wins from 35 games where the rating is 4.0+ and of those 6 losses 2 had a GOONERS rating under 100 and one was an Away !! Odds 1.20 and Under - 23/23 came in and 19 ended OVER 2.5 goals . Ok so in the general state of play we didn't have a great number of games to consider [111] but some trends did appear to be on the strong side . Generally if we have a cut-off point of around 102 or below with Gooners ratings that may cut the number of losing games and special attention should be taken of matches rated 180+ and also a H2H rating of +4.00 . Would it be worth taking the OVERS where the selected side is under 1.22 in the betting , a couple of losses and a big chunk of the profit is gone , whereas the better odds available about the Overs would negate that potential problem ? Will take a look at the Over 1.5 goals and -1 Handicap results later to see if there's an edge to be gained there . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tull Posted June 30, 2010 Share Posted June 30, 2010 Re: Football ratings system HI Jtw1, Followed your trends on the horse racign forum and saw this interesting process, I'm looking at running with a new system when the season starts in August. Ive been doing the Football Fantastics system for a while and I'd like to add another system to the mix. Will you be running this thread next next season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted June 30, 2010 Author Share Posted June 30, 2010 Re: Football ratings system HI Jtw1, Followed your trends on the horse racign forum and saw this interesting process, I'm looking at running with a new system when the season starts in August. Ive been doing the Football Fantastics system for a while and I'd like to add another system to the mix. Will you be running this thread next next season? Definately , quite excited by the results of last season . Lets hope they have not been just a flash in the pan . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rt79 Posted July 1, 2010 Share Posted July 1, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi Jtw1, I m a newbie to this forum and have been reading up on your systems. I must say you have very wonderful systems. Kudos. I came across your other system, the Under 2.5 which proved to be successful over the last 3 or more seasons. I was wondering why u had stopped posting on that threat as the Irish D1 is still currently on the run. Will like to listen to your valuable experience. Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 1, 2010 Author Share Posted July 1, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi Jtw1, I m a newbie to this forum and have been reading up on your systems. I must say you have very wonderful systems. Kudos. I came across your other system, the Under 2.5 which proved to be successful over the last 3 or more seasons. I was wondering why u had stopped posting on that threat as the Irish D1 is still currently on the run. Will like to listen to your valuable experience. Thanks in advance. First of all :welcome rt79 , hope you enjoy PL as much as i do . Regarding the Under 2.5 goals system , it was a case of a losing run dented confidence . Coupled with the fact that at the time i had just a bit too many threads running that took up a fair bit of time eg Horse racing Trends , h2h thread etc that once things went a bit pear-shaped it was not a hard choice to leave it for a while . I will be starting it up again after the main leagues have had 4/5 weeks to kick in and might even have a wee look at the Irish/Scandinavian leagues once the World Cup's out of the way . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiGHTyDuCK Posted September 12, 2010 Share Posted September 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system making a comeback soon ? thanks :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 12, 2010 Author Share Posted September 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system making a comeback soon ? thanks :cow Premier League next week , followed by Bundesliga the following week-end :ok. Looking at the results in Spain and Italy this week , i'm glad i give the league's 4 games to setle down :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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