Grex Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Imagine you have 2 systems both profitable .... one is a back system one is a lay system .... system 1 says back Liverpool at 2.20 .... system 2 says lay Liverpool at 2.00. If both bets are matched on betfair (or wherever, but I chose betfair for the ease of a visual example) you will see that you have still made a profit even by following 2 totally independent and apparently contradicting systems. Yes, but you will never get lay odds less than back odds at the same time.... what you are referring to is "trading" at two separate points in time following a shift in the market. I don't think that "trading" has anything to do with system predictions.... or perhaps I am misunderstanding your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yes' date= but you will never get lay odds less than back odds at the same time.... what you are referring to is "trading" at two separate points in time following a shift in the market. I don't think that "trading" has anything to do with system predictions.... or perhaps I am misunderstanding your point. Hi Grex, Slightly :loon I was trying to use a simple example to confirm that following separate systems even on the same match and even when they seem to totally conflict can still return a profit. Another example is where system 1 says back liverpool to win ... system 2 says back the draw in the same match ..... it maybe that both systems have highlighted that the away team is overated. K:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Imagine you have 2 systems both profitable .... one is a back system one is a lay system .... system 1 says back Liverpool at 2.20 .... system 2 says lay Liverpool at 2.00. If both bets are matched on betfair (or wherever, but I chose betfair for the ease of a visual example) you will see that you have still made a profit even by following 2 totally independent and apparently contradicting systems. As long as whatever systems you are following have sound reasoning and make longterm gains, then you need to follow them even if they seem to conflict. I understand your example and agree that you will gain a profit in it. But its quite a bad example imo, because first, you wont get these odds at the time you place your bets (you can of course get these odds at different times, but thats trading and does not really belong to this topic), and second, two systems that identify these odds as value do not necessarily contradict each other (they would if the lay odds were higher than the back odds). Let me try to clarify my point of view. There are two points that are absolute essential for me in sports betting: 1. I do not just want to make profit. I want to maximize my profit. 2. For every possible outcome in every possible market there is an absolute probability for it to come true. This probability is defined as the frequency of the specific outcome to come in if the particular match is played under identic circumstances many times. We will never be able to compute this probability of an outcome exactly, because a match will not be played under identic circumstances many times. But the fact that we are not able to measure it does not contradict the fact that this absolute probability exists. If you follow these two points (and it would need really really stunning arguments to convince me that one of it is wrong), the immediate conclusion is that going with two contradicting systems can not be the right way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yes' date= but you will never get lay odds less than back odds at the same time.... what you are referring to is "trading" at two separate points in time following a shift in the market. I don't think that "trading" has anything to do with system predictions.... or perhaps I am misunderstanding your point. I understand your example and agree that you will gain a profit in it. But its quite a bad example imo, because first, you wont get these odds at the time you place your bets (you can of course get these odds at different times, but thats trading and does not really belong to this topic) Sorry, i have missed that the 4th side of the thread has already begun when I typed my post and therefore mentioned the same point as Grex already did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Hi Grex, Slightly :loon I was trying to use a simple example to confirm that following separate systems even on the same match and even when they seem to totally conflict can still return a profit. Another example is where system 1 says back liverpool to win ... system 2 says back the draw in the same match ..... it maybe that both systems have highlighted that the away team is overated. K:ok Well, this also isnt a good example imo, because again these 2 systems do not necessarily contradict each other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? I'll agree with BeXXs here. Say you have one system that gives a game a 51% chance for a home win. That means Odds of 2.0 represent value. However, a different system has shown that that game only has a 48% chance of a home win. You have therefore, with your second system, proven that the odds represent no value, and thus shown that it is a bad bet. Statistically, you should, according to this system, lose money in the long run with bets like these. If I were to use 3 systems, I'd go solely for the games supported by all three, as this will, as far as statistics go, give you a larger profit in the long run. @Grex: when it comes to my system, I'm still working on it. Everything is finished, really, but I'm stilling working on a way to get "last 6 games" to work correctly. Loon has offered his help, we just haven't found a time when both are on MSN :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Great news :sad..... Lawro agrees with the Portsmouth and Everton selections. He has Aston Villa to draw, so they'll probably win ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Grex ... I wouldn't worry too much about Lawro picks ... there was a thread on here 2/3 years ago that laid all the Lawro picks on the same premise that he was rubbish it turns out he wasn't as bad as initially thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? I know, Kanga...... my comments about Lawro were rather tongue-in-cheek..... if he was that bad then BBC would have kicked him out years ago.... and he would now be working for Sky. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Hmm, it seems that Aston Villa has more or less been fielding the same set of 11 players for nearly all the matches so far. Makes me wonder if last season's drop of form towards to end due to fatigue will happen again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Let me try to clarify my point of view. There are two points that are absolute essential for me in sports betting: 1. I do not just want to make profit. I want to maximize my profit. 2. For every possible outcome in every possible market there is an absolute probability for it to come true. This probability is defined as the frequency of the specific outcome to come in if the particular match is played under identic circumstances many times. We will never be able to compute this probability of an outcome exactly, because a match will not be played under identic circumstances many times. But the fact that we are not able to measure it does not contradict the fact that this absolute probability exists. If you follow these two points (and it would need really really stunning arguments to convince me that one of it is wrong), the immediate conclusion is that going with two contradicting systems can not be the right way. Bexxs ... I totally agree with what you are saying, and I think we have been talking a little at cross purposes but it's a great debate :ok It's a can of worms, this efficiency vs profit debate .... some would rather fewer bets with a higher yield ... others would prefer the profit in the bank account with a larger number of bets but no so efficient. You can follow profitable systems where they both cross and still profit (as i was trying to show) ... if you were to then remove the "conflicting events" from each of the systems and tally up, I'm sure the overall difference would be negligible yet still profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted January 26, 2010 Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? It's a can of worms, this efficiency vs profit debate .... some would rather fewer bets with a higher yield ... others would prefer the profit in the bank account with a larger number of bets but no so efficient. Youre right, this is the core of the debate. Lets agree that both of us have valid points and see how Grex system(s) goes on :cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? :clap:clap:clap Wow what can I say? (Glad that Blackburn duly delivered!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 27, 2010 Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Injury time at Old Trafford seems to be a nightmare for Man City! :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Injury time at Old Trafford seems to be a nightmare for Man City! :loon At least this time, the goal was in the 2nd minute of added-time, not the 6th minute as with the previous meeting at OT.... so City still had a few minutes to respond ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 29, 2010 Author Share Posted January 29, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? .... and the good news is that Lawro only agrees with 1 of 5 selections :D:D.... he has Arsenal and Hull down as draws, and Spurs and Villa to win. He only agrees with West Ham to beat Blackburn (sorry, Relf :cry) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 30, 2010 Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? .... and the good news is that Lawro only agrees with 1 of 5 selections :D:D.... he has Arsenal and Hull down as draws' date= and Spurs and Villa to win. He only agrees with West Ham to beat Blackburn (sorry, Relf :cry) Good news? Lawro was accurate in predicting victories for Everton, Blackburn, and the draw at Villa Park. :loon As for Blackburn, (from a biased perspective), I think the game at Upton Park will end up as a draw. Fulham and Hull should deliver for your system - that's what I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Good news?..... OK.... this is only meant to be friendly banter regarding Lawro's predictions...... he is a well-respected pundit :notworthy. I'm sure he will probably get 10/10 correct for this weekend just to shut me up. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 31, 2010 Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Ouch for your system. Hope things will be good the next round! Have faith! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted January 31, 2010 Share Posted January 31, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? The start was to good to be true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeXXs Posted February 1, 2010 Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? "Have faith" ?..... rather difficult after a disasterous weekend for the system :@ Youre only 15 bets in, so just forget the weekend and go on. Next time the betting god will be on your side again (as long as you pick the same teams as i do). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 1, 2010 Author Share Posted February 1, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Youre only 15 bets in' date=' so just forget the weekend and go on. Next time the betting god will be on your side again (as long as you pick the same teams as i do).[/quote'] Thanks for the words of encouragement. So, there is a betting god...... perhaps I should make a ritual sacrifice to keep him happy :loon..... "here, Fido" :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 5, 2010 Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Wow, that's a huge lot of selections you have there! Just saw something interesting about your systems. (1) Value Points stands out being the best system among the 4 systems, with a strike rate of 75% (3 out of 4). On the other hand, the worst system out of the 4 is (3) Shots, with only a strike rate of 12.5% (1 out of 8). Interestingly, (3) Shots was mainly the 'culprit' last weekend. Lol! Well, the sample size is relatively small, and only time will tell if (1) would be an impressive one. Finally, :hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 5, 2010 Author Share Posted February 5, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Wow, you have been doing your homework, Relf. Interesting statistics, but, as you say, a very small sample. I will leave it for a few weeks before doing a comparative analysis. BTW, I'm not going to make any sarcastic comments about Lawro's Predictions, after he got 7/10 correct last weekend :notworthy. Suffice is to say that, for this weekend, he agrees with the Bolton, Stoke, Birmingham and Chelsea selections :ok.... he has Liverpool and Burnley down as draws. :( PS. I made a mistake in the selections.... it should have been Stoke v Blackburn, not Stoke v Birmingham (sorry, Relf).... it has been corrected now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Good day for the home win backers this weekend! :ok (3) Shots is responsible for the only loss so far. Hmm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Yes, Relf, the high proportion of home wins did us proud. The EPL for this season is running at a very high 50% home wins. For the system to have a good day (i.e. Chelsea and Birmingham to win), that would make a total of 70% home wins for the weekend :unsure. As for System 3, I'll give it another few weeks..... if it continues to under-perform. I'll consider dropping it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Should have been 6/6 but for poor refereeing in the Bolton match .. Well done mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? Thanks JTW1..... perhaps I should try and factor in lousy referees :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: 3 Systems are better than 1 ?? That's an interesting set of statistics you have there. Would be interesting to see if (1) would continue to perform at such a high yield after a large number of bets. And congratulations for your results! The home teams are certainly doing very well! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.